Pakistan, population and lessons from South Asia

South Asia – the corner of the planet that houses one-fifth of humanity – is restive. Over a billion registered voters were eligible to cast their ballots in elections held in the first six months of 2024 in Bangladesh, India and Pakistan alone. Over 250 million voters were new to the ballot.

While most voters vote for stability, positive outcomes are not a certainty. Bangladesh is a case in point. Even a majority verdict and an economy with good growth doesn’t guarantee political stability. Over 150 were killed in Bangladesh in recent days in clashes in Dhaka protesting three-fourth quotas in government jobs for protected classes. 

A similar economic stability in India, steered by the ruling party, failed to ensure even a simple majority for it in elections. Pakistan never stood a chance at political stability after February elections with some of the poorest economic performance in its history helping fuel unrest and political polarization even months after polls.

Trust Pakistan to not only bumble its chance to convert a major social demographic advantage into an economic dividend but to actually twin its economic drift with a callous disregard for social development. 

- Adnan Rehmat

Pakistan’s problem is especially acute. It faces many crises, arguably none so dire as a runaway population. Latest official data puts the national headcount at 241 million and it’s projected to cross 400 million in 2050. While India and Bangladesh will find political solutions supported by strong economic indicators, Pakistan is guaranteed a nightmare of Malthusian proportions considering its socio-economic polycrisis.

A large youthful population is supposed to be an economic dividend. South Asia in particular, and the rest of Asia and the Middle East in general, can testify to that with their strong development indicators. In contrast, large parts of the Western world are facing a crisis of aging population that threatens to stifle economic stability and overwhelm welfare systems.

But trust Pakistan to not only bumble its chance to convert a major social demographic advantage into an economic dividend but to actually twin its economic drift with a callous disregard for social development. For example, it is still to best its annual economic growth of 3.8 percent in 2018. It actually recorded minus growth in 2020.

New data shows over 25 million children out of schools in Pakistan and an annual population growth rate of 2.5 percent – among the highest – the country is struggling to secure a lifeline bailout from the IMF to merely stay afloat. If it can’t take care of its current 241 million people economically, how can it look after 400 million?

Lessons from other regional countries economically better off than Pakistan are not too dissimilar. Social development aspirations of large swathes of the population are outpacing the abilities of these large demographic countries to administer them effectively.

Strong economies are no longer enough, as India and Bangladesh demonstrate. Demand is growing for political and legal reforms that support inclusive social development agendas – from civil law governing marriage and divorce matters that empower women (Pakistan) to merit-based criteria in jobs for youth (Bangladesh), and from farm reforms (India) to protections against inflation and political marginalization (Sri Lanka and Maldives) to stifling religious mores (Afghanistan). 

For Pakistan though, all these disparate reform agendas in these countries come together to create a polycrisis. But underpinning it all is surely population growth, the fastest even in South Asia. This threatens to swamp even socio-economic reforms.

Some hard decisions are in order. Pakistan must go beyond lip service in prioritizing family planning – a subject socially taboo primarily on religious grounds in a country that puts religion before everything else, including citizen welfare. Enforcement of rights to health, including sexual and reproductive health, and education of younger populations must be made the cornerstone of a family welfare model that emphasizes quality of life and economic productivity of citizens.

The rest of the region too must expand focus from mostly obsession about the economy to social development. Recent projections show the region’s population will swell from more than 1.6 billion currently to over 2.2 billion by 2080 – a fourth of humanity. Quality of life must count above all. Development is the best contraception, they say. 

- Adnan Rehmat is a Pakistan-based journalist, researcher and analyst with interests in politics, media, development and science. Twitter: @adnanrehmat1