Iran’s change of guard and its significance for Pakistan

Iran has a newly elected President, widely perceived as a reformist. He stands in the line of previous reformist presidents like Mohammad Khatmi, Hashmi Rafsanjani and Hassan Rouhani. He would prefer to re-engage with the Permanent Five and Germany on the defunct nuclear deal. But can he do it without the blessings of the Iranian establishment? The presidential domain is mostly confined to domestic issues in Iran. However, possible appointment of Abbas Araghchi, a former nuclear negotiator, as Foreign Minister, has led to speculation that a review of engagement with the west is a possibility.

Pakistan’s leaders were quick to greet the new president on his election victory. President Asif Ali Zardari’s message of felicitations ended like this, “Looking forward to working together for the peace and prosperity of the region.” Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif too will be visiting Tehran shortly to participate in the inauguration ceremony. For Pakistan, ties with Iran are important as both immediate neighbors and as an increasingly important regional country.

The new president represents a change as his predecessor was a conservative. It would appear that the Iranian electorate wanted a different leader this time round and voted for one who had the best shot of steering the country out of economic problems caused by sanctions. The Iranian economy has been absolutely strangulated by them.

However, bringing Iran fully into the international mainstream is an uphill task. This does not mean that Iran is totally isolated internationally. It does enjoy good relations with Russia and China and ties have improved with countries in the Middle East. The main obstacle to its rapprochement with the west are issues around its ambitious nuclear program and policies exacerbated by the current regional situation.

Iran could be Pakistan’s nearest source of energy imports and could benefit from the connectivity provided by the China Pakistan Economic Corridor.

Javed Hafeez

Foreign policy matters remain the prerogative of the Iranian establishment. Even the president’s choice of his cabinet is subject to parliamentary approval. And the Iranian parliament is currently dominated by conservatives. Therefore, it would appear that room to maneuver in the foreign policy arena is limited. It is significant to note that Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman was one of the first leaders to felicitate President Masoud Pezeshkian on his election victory.

Iran’s economy is now more than ever integrated with the Russian and Chinese economies, owing to sanctions. 90 percent of Chinese oil exports now go to China. Iran exports drones and missiles to Russia. Payments from these two major export destinations are a big relief for cash-strapped Iran. China and Russia have a leading role in BRICKS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Iran is likely to play an active role in both as a member.

Ties with Pakistan suffered a jolt when Iran attacked a dissident group on the Pakistan side of the border in Balochistan province earlier this year. Pakistan retaliated immediately and struck Baloch separatists hiding in Iran. Both sides were quick to realize that ties had to be mended urgently. President Raeesi’s visit to Pakistan was greatly appreciated in Islamabad. This bilateral relationship can flourish to mutual advantage once sanctions on Iran are lifted. In fact, Iran could be Pakistan’s nearest source of energy imports and could benefit from the connectivity provided by the China Pakistan Economic Corridor.

Certainly, the arrival of a pragmatic leader in Iran boosts hopes for regional peace and co-operation.

- Javed Hafeez is a former Pakistani diplomat with much experience of the Middle East. He writes weekly columns in Pakistani and Gulf newspapers and appears regularly on satellite TV channels as a defense and political analyst.