Modi 3.0 and the Pakistan response
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India is a country with a strong ethos of religion in its body politic. In the Hindu religion, Vishnu is the Indian God of preservation who returns to the earth in troubled times to restore the balance of good and evil. His popular avatars are Ram and Krishna. Therefore, the pageantry of Modi during the Ram Temple’s concretion, choreographed media appearances on the banks of the Ganges in Varanasi and the assertion of not being biologically born but ‘sent’ for a divine mission assume significance. If the arrival of Ram was Modi’s election story, subsequent events have distinguished it with ‘The Mark of Vishnu’ as Modi 3.0 takes command. What would be the future trajectory/internal dynamics around Modi 3.0? How should Pakistani policymakers be responding to Modi 3.0? I attempt to address these two binaries.
Modi’s future and that of his coalition is uncertain. There are two primary reasons for this. First, his fortunes have plunged within ‘nomenklatura,’ namely the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS). A decade of iron fisted rule, disregard for delegation of authority and consensus has violated the movement’s core principles. Anyone who cultivates a personality cult and endangers the RSS’ long-term game is run aground. Never mind if he has nearly met all its core objectives. The Modi-Shah duo has continued to steam roll its way into unilaterally taking decisions and monopolizing power or its acquisition, by means fair and foul. Modi’s humbling would accentuate the process of impending succession within the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). This has been a sensitive issue due to Modi being a once in a generation politician who is, arguably, one of the most popular politicians India has had in contemporary times.
Modi’s cult and fear have been a deterrence. His loss has emboldened his critics within his support base to start manoeuvring for political ascension. Modi’s decision to reverse the ban on civil servants joining RSS is a concession to the RSS as is Amit Shah’s decision to reach Manipur to chair a high-level security review meeting. That he did not invite his handpicked protégé, Biren Singh, who is Manipur’s Chief Minister, to the meeting was another concession. However, the whip hand now rests with the nomenklatura. This reflects in renewed focus on Rajnath Singh. Nitin Gadkari, Shiv Raj Singh Chauhan and Davendra Fadnavis’ have been nursing their wounds but electoral results would encourage them to raise their stakes in New Delhi. Modi must be wary of any tacit support from the RSS. Gadkari has long been touted as a consensus builder with an enviable reputation of efficient governance. His parliamentary constituency in Nagpur gives him an advantage.
Any further concessions from Pakistan would allow for India to a diktat on the bilateral relationship and boost Modi at a time when he is at his weakest.
- Muhammad Nasir Chaudhry
Second, Modi’s allies remain unreliable. He may well count on Chandra Babu Naidu and his Telegu Desam Party simply because Naidu has made a comeback at the twilight of his political career and is inclined to continue to wield power before handing it to another generation. It is his political compulsion. His dream project of creating a new capital for Andhra, Amravati, is already off to a start. His other partner, Nitesh Kumar, of the Janata Dal (U) was until a few months ago heading the opposition India Bloc! Nitesh’s tendency to switch alliances for political expediency makes him notoriously unreliable even by Indian standards. A compounding factor would be the state elections in Haryana and Maharashtra. BJP’s loss in those states can encourage state institutions to assert autonomy and reclaim space which will be challenging for Modi 3.0.
How must Pakistan respond to Modi 3.0? Neighbourly relations between two unequal neighbors are prone to a crisis matrix. There is no exclusivity, therefore, in the Indo-Pak relationship. It would be prudent for Pakistan to frame an Indian policy with all stakeholders on board. Persistence would present opportunities as internal dynamics shape in India. Rahul Gandhi’s outreach to the backward classes has struck an important chord. They continue to eke on the fringes of the Indian story. This discontentment along with income inequity, unemployment and rural distress will make for allowances. If Pakistan constrains its obsession to self-harm, then the emergence of ‘Squad’ instead of Quad, reports of Delhi’s worldwide assassination campaigns, reactions to Modi’s Russian visit in the West and calls for moderating the expectations of India in the US can be better leveraged by Islamabad.
Pakistan’s principled support to the Kashmiris must not cease particularly considering a crystalizing indigenous resistance in the territory against India. Events in the Middle East have only swelled the global public opinion in favor of self-determination. Concessions in the past were met by a modest ceasefire along the Line of Control chiefly due to India’s preoccupation in its Eastern theater. Any further concessions from Pakistan would allow for India to a diktat on the bilateral relationship and boost Modi at a time when he is at his weakest.
- The writer works in the energy sector and contributes on contemporary affairs. He is based in Islamabad and can be reached on [email protected].
