LONDON: In a dramatic shift in US foreign policy, President Donald Trump recently pledged to lift sanctions on Syria — a move that has sparked cautious optimism among Syrian entrepreneurs eyeing a long-awaited path to economic recovery after years of war and isolation.

The announcement was quickly followed by a high-profile meeting in Riyadh on May 14 between Trump and Syria’s interim president, Ahmed Al-Sharaa, ahead of a broader summit of Gulf leaders during Trump’s regional tour, signaling a renewed emphasis on diplomatic engagement with Damascus.

Hosted by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the meeting marked the most significant international overture to Syria since the fall of Bashar Assad’s regime in December.

It also marked the first meeting between a sitting US president and a Syrian head of state in more than 20 years.

Further cementing this policy change, the US on Saturday issued a six-month waiver of key Caesar Act sanctions, authorizing transactions with Syria’s interim government, central bank, and state firms. The move also clears the way for investment in energy, water, and infrastructure to support humanitarian aid and reconstruction.

In a further boost, the EU announced on May 20 that it would follow the US lead and lift its own remaining sanctions on Syria. “We want to help the Syrian people rebuild a new, inclusive and peaceful Syria,” EU foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, posted on X.

Analysts believe that these developments suggest a thaw in relations, opening the door to future cooperation, particularly in rebuilding Syria’s war-ravaged economy.

“Lifting sanctions is a necessary and critical measure,” Syrian economic adviser Humam Aljazaeri told Arab News, highlighting that a key sector poised to benefit is energy, particularly electricity generation.

Syria’s energy infrastructure has been decimated by more than a decade of civil war and sanctions.

Before the conflict erupted in 2011, Syria produced about 400,000 barrels of oil a day, nearly half of which was exported, according to the Alma Research and Education Center.

Since then, oil and gas output has plunged by more than 80 percent, as fields, refineries and pipelines were destroyed or seized by warring factions, according to World Bank data.

Power generation dropped 56 percent between 2011 and 2015, the local newspaper Al-Watan reported at the time. Today, daily blackouts — sometimes lasting 20 hours — are a grim feature of life across Syria.

Beyond energy, Aljazaeri highlighted the humanitarian sector as another area in urgent need of relief. If sanctions are lifted, Syria “would enjoy a frictionless flow of programs through various UN and other international agencies,” he said.

That relief cannot come soon enough. The UN estimates that 16.7 million Syrians — roughly three-quarters of the population — will require humanitarian aid in 2025. Syria is now the world’s fourth most food-insecure country, with 14.5 million people in need of nutritional support.

Despite the scale of need, international funding remains woefully short. As of late February, only 10 percent of the $1.2 billion required for early 2025 humanitarian operations had been secured, according to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.

Even when funds are available, getting aid to those in need is an ongoing logistical challenge. Continued conflict, insecurity and decimated infrastructure — especially in the hard-hit northern and northeastern regions — make delivery slow and difficult.

Conditions are worsening. Severe drought this year threatens to wipe out up to 75 percent of Syria’s wheat crop, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, placing millions at even greater risk of hunger.

The crisis is further compounded by the return of about 1.2 million displaced Syrians between December and early 2025. Many have returned to towns and villages in ruins, overwhelming humanitarian services.

While sectors such as transport and trade could see quick wins if sanctions are eased, Aljazaeri cautioned that a full recovery would require time and clearer international policy direction.

“Sectors like infrastructure, health, education and general business are not expected to move quickly in the interim period,” he said. “These areas need a clearer international policy on sanctions and a more stable investment climate.”

For now, Aljazaeri said, the US is expected to offer only limited relief — temporary exemptions and executive licenses for 180 days — before reassessing its stance, potentially through a broader congressional review.

Lifting sanctions is a necessary and critical measure

Humam Aljazaeri, Syrian economic adviser

“This piecemeal approach won’t provide enough assurance for serious investors,” he said. “Against this backdrop, it is important to see how the government will act in the coming weeks and months to justify further international integration and a more sustainable lifting of sanctions.”

Rebuilding Syria could cost between $400 billion and $600 billion, according to Lebanese economist Nasser Saidi.

Syria’s natural resources and its regional pipeline network could attract investors, he wrote in an essay for Arabian Gulf Business Insight magazine.

However, he emphasized that tapping this potential would require dismantling the country’s “corrupt, politically controlled, state-owned enterprises and government-related entities,” and reviving a vibrant private sector.

Some positive steps, however small, are already underway. The Karam Shaar Advisory, a New Zealand-based consulting firm, noted that 97 new limited liability companies were registered in Syria between Assad’s fall in December and March 26.

While the firm called it “a modest rise in formal company formation,” it said that economic stagnation persists.

Meanwhile, efforts to rebuild shattered infrastructure are gaining traction, particularly with the Syrian diaspora poised to play a role.

“Conversations are underway about involving all stakeholders to create enabling frameworks,” Mohamed Ghazal, managing director of Startup Syria, a community-led initiative supporting Syrian entrepreneurs, told Arab News.

Government buy-in will be essential. “Think tanks and task forces are working on this, but strong cooperation from the Syrian government is crucial — and there are promising signs in this direction,” Ghazal said.

He highlighted the diaspora’s potential to drive investment, skills transfer and community development. “There is a growing recognition that the Syrian diaspora can significantly contribute to ecosystem-building,” he said.

Still, many in the diaspora remain cautious. Ghazal said that the tipping point for engagement included sustainable peace, rule of law, property rights, improved governance, reduced corruption, investment incentives, infrastructure reconstruction and a coordinated international approach.

Aljazaeri echoed those concerns, noting that lifting sanctions alone would not stabilize Syria or improve living conditions. “Issues related to law and order, reconciliation and good policies are detrimental,” he said.

“In our view, it is not inflation, corruption, or cronyism that would pose a challenge at this stage, rather ‘right economics’ or the lack of it. The Syrian administration needs to demonstrate competency in running the economy and applying the necessary reforms.

“It has the power, maybe also the will, but must have the capabilities to do the right thing,” he said, stressing that “to do that, it needs to engage more and widen the pool of dialogue and trust.”

However, the path ahead remains fraught with dangers. Geir Pedersen, the UN special envoy for Syria, warned on Wednesday of “the real dangers of renewed conflict and deeper fragmentation” in the war-torn country.

Since Assad’s fall, Syria has seen new waves of violence, particularly along the coast, where his Alawite sect is concentrated. Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, the Islamist group that led the offensive that toppled Assad, now controls much of the area, which has been wracked by sectarian violence.

Reports of mass executions, looting and arson have heightened fears of renewed sectarian conflict. Al-Sharaa’s government is reportedly struggling to assert control, facing clashes with Druze in the south and standoffs with Kurds in the northeast.

“The Al-Sharaa government has two options in Syria; bring the minorities into government in a meaningful way so they feel invested in the future of the country and believe that they can protect themselves from within the state, or to suppress the minorities and force their compliance,” Joshua Landis, director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma, told Arab News.

“So far, Al-Sharaa has been using both methods. With the Alawites, he has favored the second method — force. With the Druze and Kurds, he has offered deals.”

Despite the instability, experts argue the interim government and international partners can still take steps to foster investment and recovery.

“Temporarily unlocking frozen financial assets could provide a lifeline,” Aljazaeri said. “How those resources are used will define the government’s direction.”

Ghazal said that capital is urgently needed to fuel entrepreneurship. “Transparent financial channels, encouragement of diaspora investment and attraction of impact investors could bring necessary seed and growth capital,” he said.

He noted Syria’s growing startup scene, with more than 200 active ventures. Events such as the “Hack for Syria” hackathon, held from Feb. 22–28, showcased the country’s talent and drive to solve local problems.

“However, these entrepreneurs need support to scale and access global opportunities,” he said.

Sanctions imposed on the Assad regime and inherited by Al-Sharaa’s government targeted key sectors such as banking, transport and energy.

Syria’s gross domestic product plunged from $67.5 billion in 2011 to about $21 billion in 2024, according to the World Bank.

The sanctions cut Syria off from the global financial system, froze government assets and strangled trade — especially in oil — crippling state revenues and economic activity.

This contributed to widespread poverty, with more than 90 percent of Syrians forced below the poverty line.

As Syria emerges from more than a decade of turmoil, the lifting of US and EU sanctions offers a rare economic lifeline — and the possibility of a new chapter in its complex relationship with the West.

BEIRUT: Residents of southern Lebanon voted on Saturday in the country’s municipal elections.

The fourth and last stage of the elections took place in the southern and Nabatieh governorates.

“The will of life is stronger than death, and the will of construction is stronger than destruction,” President Joseph Aoun said during a tour of south Lebanon.

Aoun’s visit, which came just minutes before ballot boxes opened at 7 a.m., was particularly significant as he is from the border village of Al-Aaishiyah.

The president exercised his right to vote for the first time in 40 years. Under national law, he had been forbidden from voting due to his active military service.

His presence in the far south provided a sense of reassurance, particularly as the elections were taking place less than 48 hours after intense Israeli airstrikes in the region.

When asked if there were assurances against Israeli attacks on election day, Aoun said: “The guarantees are in place. The south is part of Lebanon and the heart of the nation, and nothing should deter the Lebanese people from exercising their will to persevere.”

The streets of Al-Aaishiyah were adorned with Lebanese flags, and residents welcomed the president with chants supporting his positions, showering him with rice and flowers.

After casting his vote, Aoun said: “I have spent 40 years protecting elections, and today, for the first time, I am voting in an electoral event to support the town’s development.

“Elections by consensus represent a form of democracy, and the country is founded on consensual democracy.”

Aoun delivered several messages during his tour, saying: “Today is not only Liberation Day, but also a day for democracy and making the right choice.”

He urged citizens to take part in the vote in large numbers, and described the election as developmental rather than political.

“Vote for representatives who support development in our cities and villages, honor the sacrifices of our people and contribute to reconstruction,” he said.

Aoun commended the resilience of people in the south and acknowledged the many challenges they have faced.

He highlighted the efforts of security and judicial agencies, as well as civil servants, in managing the electoral process at every stage.

The elections were held one day before the anniversary of Liberation Day, which Lebanon celebrates each year on May 25 since 2000 — the year Israel withdrew from the south after decades of occupation.

The Lebanese army, Internal Security Forces and State Security members secured the polling stations, deploying personnel at entrances and outside.

Voters in Sidon and its surrounding villages took part in electoral contests, with politicians from the city present at polling stations to cast their votes.

Among them were former prime minister Fouad Siniora, former MP Bahia Hariri and MP Abdul Rahman Bizri.

Interior Minister Ahmed Hajjar monitored the electoral process, traveling between border villages and areas north of the Litani River.

No one was preventing southerners from exercising their democratic rights, he said.

“We did not seek guarantees for conducting the elections from anyone. Instead, we communicated with the countries involved in the ceasefire agreement.

“As a state and government, we have decided to hold these elections to ensure that every citizen and every southerner can exercise their right to vote and practice sovereignty, with the state fully supporting this process with all its effort and determination,” the minister added.

Army Commander Gen. Rodolphe Haikal inspected the central operations room located in the southern region at the Mohammed Zgheib Barracks in Sidon.

He assessed the security protocols adopted by military units to safeguard the electoral process.

Gen. Haikal visited the command of the Fifth Infantry Brigade in Bayada and was briefed on the brigade’s deployment in its operational sector and the security measures being implemented.

In a speech, he said: “The success of the electoral process holds significant importance in light of the current exceptional challenges.”

Addressing military personnel, he said the success of the electoral process was a testament to the commitment of the people of the south to their land, and the presence of the army was a crucial factor for reassurance and resilience.

Gen. Haikal said: “Our message is that the army stands firmly with the Lebanese people. Israel, which continues to violate Lebanon’s sovereignty and occupies part of its territory, will not deter the military from fully fulfilling its duties.”

Among those who voted on Saturday were Hezbollah members wounded in the 2024 pager attack, which saw thousands of booby-trapped devices blow up near-simultaneously in an operation carried out by Israel.

Photos were taken of them in front of the ballot boxes as they cast their votes with amputated fingers and blinded eyes.

Border town residents who had fled their homes south of the Litani River amid the Hezbollah-Israel war cast their votes at dedicated centers in Nabatieh, north of the river.

The displaced voters expressed anger over having to vote outside their towns as well as their continued displacement, with no reconstruction on the horizon.

Dozens of complaints were filed with the central operations room, while the Lebanese Association for Democratic Elections, or LADE, complained of “harassment against its representatives.”

Elections in most of the border towns, which suffered Israeli attacks 48 hours beforehand, were won by default, except for Houla and Aitaroun, as well as mixed towns like Yarin, Yaroun, Shamaa and Dhahira.

Towns where Hezbollah and the Amal Movement failed to secure the endorsement of loyal candidates witnessed a grassroots surge.

Mixed towns or those with Sunni, Christian or Druze majorities experienced fierce competition.

The Interior Ministry allowed candidate withdrawals to continue until Saturday morning.

Out of 272 municipalities, 109 won by default in both governorates.

Leftist parties and independents competed in towns where the Shiite duo’s attempts at reaching a consensus failed, and in towns witnessing competition between the two.

The towns that witnessed electoral contests include Kfar Reman, Doueir, Kfar Tebnit and Adloun.

The Lebanese Forces competed against the Free Patriotic Movement in Jezzine.

In towns where competition between candidates was intense, voter turnout reached almost 40 percent by the afternoon.

Hezbollah MP Hassan Fadlallah said that winning by default is “the most important message sent by the people of the south to the Israelis.”

MP Ali Fayyad said: “Southerners prove once again that they support the resistance and endorse the national duo as a political choice.”