A tale of three explosions and their far-reaching echoes

Three major explosions, all linked to Hezbollah, have punctuated the growing influence of Iran in Lebanon and the region over the past 40 years. If this were a three-part TV series, the same actors would have been more or less involved in each of the three episodes. The net result is that southern Lebanon has been turned into the front line of a global confrontation between the US and its allies on one side, and Iran and its allies on the other.
The first two explosions — the 1983 Beirut barracks blast and the 2005 bomb that killed former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri — changed the course of history. The third explosion, the Aug. 4, 2020, Beirut Port blast, is still shaping the course of the country, with repercussions well beyond its borders.
One common factor is that all three explosions happened against a backdrop of US-Iran confrontation, with Lebanon as one of its battlegrounds.
The Israeli strike that killed Fouad Shukr on July 30 symbolizes the complex linkages. He was a Hezbollah military leader, second in command to Hassan Nasrallah, whose finger was on the trigger that could have launched a major post-Gaza military confrontation involving Iran, the US, and their regional and global allies. Shukr is alleged to have been involved in the 1983 Beirut barracks attack. He was also the commander of Hezbollah forces that intervened in Syria, which also included other Iranian proxies from Iraq, Yemen and beyond, all of which can be mobilized in the current war.
In all three cases the reaction of the US is key to later developments, and the sequence of events is relevant.
After the 1983 Beirut explosion that killed 241 US military personnel, the US eventually capitulated to Syria. US President Ronald Reagan ordered the redeployment of US troops that were part of a multinational force that intervened to stabilize Lebanon after the Israeli invasion of 1982. At the same time Western hostages taken in Beirut by militant groups linked to both Iran and Syria were released in Damascus.
The game of arsonist firefighter played by the Syrian regime eventually paid off. The Reagan administration gradually came to believe that only Syria could control Lebanon. In 1990, Syria was given a free hand in Lebanon as a sweetener for its participation in the Gulf War coalition to drive Saddam Hussein’s forces out of Kuwait.
Syrian control allowed Hezbollah to flourish and remain unchallenged for 14 years. In June 2004, US President George W. Bush and his French counterpart Jacques Chirac met in Normandy at the D-Day commemorations and decided to patch up their differences over the US invasion of Iraq by sponsoring UN Security Council Resolution 1559. This would restore Lebanese sovereignty, and drive both Syria and Iran out of the country by disarming Hezbollah and other militias under its control.

Syrian control allowed Hezbollah to flourish and remain unchallenged. 

Nadim Shehadi

Hariri, the target of the second bomb in our series, was suspected of aligning with Chirac against Syrian and Iranian influence. This was followed by what became known as the Cedar Revolution, a precursor to the Arab Spring, calling for an international investigation. Support for that eventually led to almost a dozen UN Security Council resolutions and the setting up of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon. Syria withdrew its troops under international pressure.
We now know from the judgments and indictments of the Special Tribunal that a hit squad composed of several Hezbollah members was responsible for a series of assassinations of journalists, politicians, military and security personnel over several years. Hezbollah control was also achieved through a continuous state of war, control of the port and airport, occupation of the city, and paralyzing government and state institutions, as well as isolation from the Gulf countries.
On the international level, developments were also significant. The US withdrew from Iraq and engaged with the regime in Syria when President Bashar Assad dangled the carrot of a peace agreement with Israel. The most serious development for our story is the impact of the negotiations with Iran over the Iran nuclear deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.
The JCPOA was negotiated on condition that talks would stick to technical aspects and “geopolitics” would be kept out of the discussions. Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif is said to  have told US Secretary of State John Kerry that his mandate from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei included only the nuclear issue, and that he would walk out if any mention was made of Iran’s regional role, more specifically in Syria through its Iraqi and Lebanese proxies. The result was that the US became blind to the Houthis, Hezbollah and other Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps militias in Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen, leading to the situation now. This also led to the US limiting its support for the Syrian opposition in order to avoid a clash with Iran that would endanger the JCPOA. In 2013, the US fell for a Russian trick to retreat from President Barack Obama’s “red line” and negotiate Syria’s chemical weapons.
The 2020 Beirut Port blast is also heavily loaded with symbols that are relevant to the current regional confrontation. Originally 2,750 tonnes of ammonium nitrate stored in a warehouse at the port were said to be destined for the manufacture of barrel bombs in the battle for Syria. When that warehouse exploded, it was estimated that just over a quarter of the original quantity was left. This was enough to destroy half the city. Both civil and military authorities who knew about the cache were powerless to act. The investigation was blocked, and the legal process paralyzed after a threatening visit by Hezbollah’s security chief Wafiq Safa to the judicial authorities. Lokman Slim, the political commentator and critic of Hezbollah, was assassinated after speaking out about the group’s connections to the port blast.
Four years after the Beirut Port explosion, the demand for justice for the victims and accountability for those responsible for the crime is falling on deaf ears internationally. The US administration is negotiating with Hezbollah as though it were the sovereign authority of the country.
Is this another capitulation? A third one after the third bomb? The deafening sound of the explosions has far-reaching echoes.

• Nadim Shehadi is an economist and political adviser. He has held positions in academia and think tanks in Europe and the US. He ran a program on the regional dimension of the Middle East Peace Process at Chatham House. X: @Confusezeus