Are Western-supplied F-16 jets the silver bullet Ukraine needs to defeat Russia?

At last, the long-awaited delivery of US-made F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine has begun. The question now is whether they can provide the silver bullet needed to defeat Russia. Or at least hold off Russian advances. Or simply provide Ukraine with a more effective shield to protect its front lines, which might frustrate the Kremlin’s efforts to bring the country, and NATO, to their knees in the coming months.

The belated delivery of these war machines is better than no delivery at all for the overstretched, overwhelmed, outgunned and fatigued Ukrainian soldiers who are making a stand against an enemy that is far superior in terms of manpower, hardware and technology.

Detractors might find many reasons to portray this delayed Western provision of a few planes as too little too late to change the course of the war. Though such concerns are very valid, one should not dismiss the morale boost they will provide to Ukrainians on the front lines when they hear the distinctive roaring sound overhead of advanced fighter jets, equipped for both attack and defense, in the weeks and months to come. And it is possible that they could hugely frustrate Russian military operations in the skies above Ukraine.

Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022, Kyiv has been pleading with its Western partners to provide modern fighter jets, in addition to long-range weaponry. The response by allies, however, has been a finely calibrated one: deliver to Ukraine what is absolutely necessary to prevent the success of the Russian invasion, but not enough to inflict an outright defeat on Moscow.

The arrival and deployment of the first batch of F-16s was officially confirmed by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky this week. They are among the most crucial pieces of military equipment donated by allies so far and could amount to a game-changer, depending on how well the Ukrainians can conceal and protect the planes. Another factor is the weapons range Kyiv is allowed to employ, which will be critical to its efforts to improve its reach and counter Russian incursions into its airspace. Such enhanced capabilities would be a huge boost.

In anticipation of this bold Western move to support Ukraine, Russia has adopted a carrot-and-stick approach. Moscow stated recently that it was open to the idea of ending the war, based on the current battle lines. However, this would require Ukraine to give up about 20 percent of its territory, an option rejected outright by the Ukrainian leadership on the grounds that it is not a “carrot” but an unacceptable defeat for Ukraine that would carve out what Russia has wanted from the start.

The stick brandished by Russia is perhaps more telling, as experts say that for the past two months Moscow has been intensifying its attacks on infrastructure such as airfields and bases across the country that might be used to maintain and deploy the newly delivered F-16s.

Such bases, the locations of which are the best-kept secrets in Ukraine, will become even more valuable as more of the aircraft are delivered and deployed in the months ahead, forcing Kyiv to install missile-defense systems, even though it is short of such systems and ammunition they use. Each base would need at least two Patriot and two NASAMS batteries to help keep them secure.

Ensuring the jets can be safely deployed will not, on its own, guarantee that Kyiv and its allies can overcome the huge challenges they face in maintaining the aircraft and ensuring they have enough trained pilots and engineers to operate and repair them. Nor will it help them cope with the logistical issues in ensuring they have access to the spare parts they will need, close to the theater of operations.

Training an F-16 pilot can take up to four years but Ukraine will be doing it in a year, with the added complication of a language barrier. The biggest test, for sure, will be when the Ukrainians take to the skies; will they be able to integrate this new tool effectively in terms of command and control, tactics and maneuvering, or will they be picked off by the many Russian, long-range air-defense batteries?

If Ukraine, even with a limited number of F-16s, could threaten a greater number of Russian targets, Kyiv would gain greater leverage in the war and, perhaps, at the negotiating table.

Mohamed Chebaro

Ukraine hopes to have about 24 pilots flight-ready by end of this year. But the real game changer, potentially, will be the weaponry it is allowed to equip in the jets.

Justin Bronk, senior research fellow for air power and technology at the Royal United Services Institute in the UK, said recently that the planes will provide “air defense and depth capacity and potentially will be capable of intercepting Shahed, Iranian-built drones and cruise missiles, although it is a very expensive way.”

Other experts say the planes will offer Ukraine the capacity to launch air-to-surface missiles but this will hinge on what Kyiv has at its disposal.

Missiles with a range of 95 kilometers would allow the F-16s to engage only in air-defense operations, including confrontations with Russian jets and helicopters in the south of the country. However, missiles with a range of 180 kilometers would give them them the option of attacking Russian warplanes armed with guided bombs, significantly reducing Russia’s offensive capabilities.

In the past few months it was no surprise to hear, repeatedly, that the Ukrainian military was working hard to reduce potential threats to the F-16s by attacking Russian air defenses, including airfields, radar sites and defense batteries in the south.

If Ukraine, even with a limited number of F-16s, could threaten a greater number of Russian targets, Kyiv would gain greater leverage in the war and, perhaps, at the negotiating table. So far it has lacked offensive air capability of the kind the F-16s can provide, to allow it to threaten Russian assets close to its territory and put parts of the Russian war machine on a more defensive footing and cause them more operational problems.

The deployment of F-16s in Ukraine might not quite be the long-awaited silver bullet that changes the course of the war, but there are hopes that they will contribute enough firepower to ensure a stalemate that might make moves to begin a serious peace process more likely.

Even if we are to believe the naysayers who doubt the potentially game-changing effect of the jets, I believe that just the mere presence of a few highly advanced, high-tech aircraft will contribute enormously to boosting Ukrainian morale. This is something that has been in short supply since the start of this year, when the US Congress withheld and delayed for six months its latest tranche of critically needed military aid to the country.

As Napoleon often said, the effectiveness of an army depends on its size, training, experience and morale — and morale is worth more than all the other factors combined.

• Mohamed Chebaro is a British Lebanese journalist with more than 25 years of experience covering war, terrorism, defense, current affairs and diplomacy. He is also a media consultant and trainer.