Tumult in Bangladesh and lessons for Pakistan
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Bangladesh has witnessed a series of earth-shaking events in recent weeks. These events were seen in Pakistan with particular interest as the two countries have a shared history. What started as agitation against government job quotas morphed into popular demand for the ouster of Prime Minister Hasina Wajid. The issue at stake, was that 30 percent of jobs in government were reserved for the fighters of the 1971 war. Faced with a high unemployment rate, Bangladesh’s educated youth viewed this concession as self serving and one that had continued for far too long. A similar agitation had got this quota quashed in 2018, but the High Court had resurrected it this June.
The demonstrations were relentless despite strong measures used by the government. Repressive measures with the use of disproportionate force by security agencies resulted in numerous deaths. The demand for the abolition of the quota system was now overshadowed by an outcry for the removal of the Prime Minister. Public angst was increasing by the day. Ultimately, the Army Chief told the Prime Minister to leave immediately to escape public wrath and arranged her safe exit.
Like Bangladesh, Pakistan too has a history of political agitation. The last couple of years have especially been very hard on the common man. Electricity bills have spiralled and inflation has become unbearable. Resource distribution is skewed, making the poor poorer. To cap it all, the government has imposed additional taxes on the salaried class. A right-wing party has organized a sit in near the capital and popular participation has been impressive. Economic grievances have often galvanized people into political action. Moreover, the main opposition party is strongly objecting to the results of the last election and this finds resonance in the populace to a significant extent. The government in Islamabad is on slippery ground.
Till recently, the Bangladesh Awami League government was very strong. It had a clear majority in parliament and enjoyed support in all important state institutions. Economic growth had been impressive for many years. However, it appears that the youth, which constitutes the majority of the population, was disgruntled with government policies, the quota system in particular which was in violation of merit. The incumbency factor may also have gone against Prime Minister Hasina. After all, 15 years of uninterrupted rule is a very long time in this part of the world. That being said, her Awami League party is not out of political contention forever. It could stage a comeback in some years under her leadership or that of her son.
Chaos and anarchy, if allowed to continue, will only reverse the impressive strides taken by Bangladesh.
Javed Hafeez
Neighboring India has certainly suffered a setback. But India is a big stakeholder in Bangladesh and will continue to remain so. It virtually surrounds the country from three sides and is upper riparian. West Bengal has old cultural links with Bangladesh. Indian exports to Bangladesh in 2022 were in excess of $16 billion and terms of trade are favorable to India. Bangladesh’s thriving textile sector is almost entirely dependent on Indian cotton.
A new interim government has been sworn in headed by a well known Nobel Laureate Dr. Muhammad Younis. He played a major role in poverty alleviation through micro loans to common folk for running small businesses and his team includes some well qualified professionals. Following the aftershocks of Dhaka, a ‘demonstration effect’ is already visible in Pakistan. Some segments of Pakistan’s media are also alluding to a government of technocrats that could undertake economic reforms and hold fresh elections. The government and opposition in Pakistan have seldom held a dialogue in recent years. This has created a political impasse and an interim government of technocrats is now being seen as a way out.
A clear lesson from Bangladesh for Pakistan is that governments should always be sensitive to the genuine demands of their people, and particularly, those of their youth. Repressive measures cannot stop a genuinely popular movement. The after-effects of such movements could have demonstration effects elsewhere also. After such jolting developments, it is necessary that normalcy is restored as soon as possible. Chaos and anarchy, if allowed to continue, will only reverse the impressive strides taken by Bangladesh in the export sector and toward an improved standard of living.
A redeeming feature of these developments for Pakistan is the possibility of putting some substance in bilateral ties with Bangladesh.
-Javed Hafeez is a former Pakistani diplomat with much experience of the Middle East. He writes weekly columns in Pakistani and Gulf newspapers and appears regularly on satellite TV channels as a defense and political analyst.
Twitter: @JavedHafiz8
