Europe’s version of the Cuban missile crisis is hurting South Asia
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The increasing strategic temperature in Europe is alarming. Missile proliferation in Europe will inevitably swiftly spread globally and multiply the security dilemma of militarily vulnerable and economically fragile states such as Pakistan. Germany’s sporadic long-range missile deployment for example, will no doubt invite Russia’s matching response.
The Kremlin is disturbed by the announcement of the long-range missiles’ deployment in Germany because these dual-use (conventional and nuclear-capable) missiles strike targets in Russia’s heartland within 10 minutes. On July 28, President Vladimir Putin warned that deploying the missiles would be counterproductive. He said, “We will take mirror measures to deploy, taking into account the actions of the United States, its satellites in Europe, and other regions of the world.”
Germany’s strategic outlook has entirely changed since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. Subsequently, Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced a shift in Germany’s diplomatic and military policies in three decades. The détente between Berlin and Moscow was terminated. He also announced refurbishing Germany’s military muscle by injecting 100 billion Euros into the defense budget and reposing its trust in NATO’s defensive apparatus.
The transformation in Germany’s defense policy increments NATO’s overall military strength and its Ukrainian assistance strategy. Currently, Germany is preparing to deploy long-range missiles by 2026. Besides, it agreed to host the training of Ukrainian troops at Wiesbaden, Germany. These escalator developments may deter Russian ingress in Europe but endure tensions and insecurity in global geopolitics by rejuvenating alliance politics and deployment of nuclear weapons at hair-trigger mode— to launch a pre-emptive strike on the adversary. In such a situation, the chances of accidental or inadvertent nuclear strikes are multiplied.
The deployment of long-range missiles in Germany could be a replay of the October 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis. That crisis originated due to the deployment of US Jupiter ballistic missiles in Turkiye. The missile deployment reduced the missiles’ flight time, necessitating the Kremlin’s balancing act. The former Soviet Union swiftly deployed intermediate-range ballistic missiles in Cuba — 90 miles from the Florida coast— entailing the verge of an all-out nuclear war, widely referred to as ‘The Cuban Missile Crisis’.
Putin opined last month that the US was stoking tensions by transferring Typhon missile systems to Denmark and the Philippines. These systems form a core component of the US Army’s new Multi-Domain Task Forces (MDTF), created to check Russia and China. He compared the developments with the NATO decision to deploy Pershing II launchers in Western Europe in 1979. The Soviets viewed Pershing’s deployment as a plan to decapitate the Soviet Union by taking out its political and military leadership. Hence, he announced balancing countermeasures.
Pakistan can ignore the echo of the Cuban missile crisis in Europe but cannot be indifferent to the developments in its own strategic environment.
Zafar Nawaz Jaspal
The Typhon missile systems— supporting Tomahawk cruise missiles and SM-6— deployed in Northern Luzon, Philippines on April 11 have alarmed China. Typhon’s missiles target the Chinese coast and various People’s Liberation Army bases in the South China Sea. The continued presence of launchers has prompted a strong response from China. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi had warned the Philippines that the missile deployment could escalate regional tensions.
The rebalancing strategies of the United States and Russia in Europe will cascade arms competition in the Asia-Pacific region, furthering the threshold alliance between India and the United States. The Americans are determined to strengthen India’s military muscle by selling it sophisticated military hardware and through bilateral joint ventures of emerging and disruptive technologies. American strategic pundits view a stronger Indian Navy as directly aligned with US national security interests, providing a bulwark against China’s assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific.
Presently, the US Congress is debating an India-centric bill to reinforce India’s military capabilities to check China’s rise in Asia and also inhibit Pakistan’s balancing responses toward India. On July 26, Senator Marco Rubio introduced the ‘United States-India Defense Cooperation Act of 2024’ in the Senate for a debate. The passage of the said Act elevates India’s stature to the level of US allies such as Japan, Israel, Korea, and NATO regarding technology transfers. The transfer of modern technology to India intensifies the arms race in South Asia.
Some of the articles of the Act are very critical for Pakistan. For instance, ‘Pakistan’s use of offensive force, including through terrorism and proxy groups, against India; bar Pakistan from receiving security assistance.’ Ironically, Senator Rubio completely ignores India’s sponsoring and financing of terrorism in Pakistan and its intelligence agency’s well-documented killings on foreign lands, including Canada, Pakistan, etc. Moreover, sanctions against Pakistan destabilize the region’s fragile strategic equilibrium, increasing Pakistan’s security dilemma.
In summary, Pakistan can ignore the echo of the Cuban missile crisis in Europe but cannot be indifferent to the developments in its own strategic environment, especially the military modernization of India. The American approval and assistance to India to emerge as a ‘Net Security Provider’ in the Indian Ocean region significantly impacts the balance of power in South Asia. The increase in Indian Naval power and influence in the region undermines Pakistan’s maritime interests and necessitates it to advance its own naval power.
- Dr. Zafar Nawaz Jaspal is an Islamabad-based analyst and professor at the School of Politics and International Relations, Quaid-i-Azam University. E-mail: [email protected] Twitter: @zafar_jaspal
