Study finds rains that led to deadly Indian landslides were made worse by climate change

Indian army soldiers set up a prefabricated bridge for across the river rescue operations following landslides at Chooralmala, Wayanad district, Kerala state, India, July 31, 2024. (AP)
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Updated 14 August 2024
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Study finds rains that led to deadly Indian landslides were made worse by climate change

  • “The Wayanad landslides are another catastrophic example of climate change playing out in real time,” said Mariam Zachariah, a climate scientist at Imperial College of London and one of the authors of the rapid study

BENGALURU, India: The heavy rains that resulted in landslides killing hundreds in southern India last month were made worse by human-caused climate change, a rapid analysis by climate scientists found Tuesday.
The study by the World Weather Attribution, a group of scientists who use established climate models to quickly determine whether human-caused climate change played a part in extreme weather events around the world, found that the 15 centimeters (5.91 inches) of rain that fell in a 24-hour period July 29-30 was 10 percent more intense because of global warming. The group expects further emissions of planet-heating gases will result in increasingly frequent intense downpours that can lead to such disasters.
Nearly 200 people were killed and rescuers are still searching for more than 130 missing people in Kerala state, one of India’s most popular tourist destinations.
“The Wayanad landslides are another catastrophic example of climate change playing out in real time,” said Mariam Zachariah, a climate scientist at Imperial College of London and one of the authors of the rapid study.
Last month’s rainfall that caused the landslides was the third-heaviest in Kerala state since India’s weather agency began record-keeping in 1901.
Last year over 400 people died due to heavy rains in the Indian Himalayan state of Himachal Pradesh. Multiple studies have found that India’s monsoon rains have become more erratic as a result of climate change. “Until the world replaces fossil fuels with renewable energy, monsoon downpours will continue to intensify, bringing landslides, floods and misery to India,” said Zachariah.
India’s southern state Kerala has been particularly vulnerable to climate change-driven extreme weather. Heavy rainfall in 2018 flooded large parts of the state, killing at least 500 people, and a cyclonic storm in 2017 killed at least 250 people including fishers who were at sea near the state’s coasts.
“Millions of people are sweltering in deadly heat in the summer. Meanwhile, in monsoons, heavier downpours are fueling floods and landslides, like we saw in Wayanad,” said Arpita Mondal, a climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Technology Bombay and one of the study’s authors. Earlier this year another study by the same group found that deadly heat waves that killed at least 100 people in India were found to have been made at least 45 times more likely due to global warming.
India, the world’s most populous country, is among the highest current emitters of planet-heating gases and is also considered to be among the most vulnerable regions in the world to climate impacts.
“When it rains now, it rains heavily. In a warmer world, these extreme events will be more frequent and we cannot stop them. However, we can try to establish early warning systems for landslides and also avoid any construction activity in landslide-prone regions,” said Madhavan Rajeevan, a retired senior official at India’s Ministry of Earth Sciences who is from Kerala state.
Tuesday’s study also recommended minimizing deforestation and quarrying, while improving early warning and evacuation systems to help protect people in the region from future landslides and floods. The study said the Wayanad region had seen a 62 percent decrease in forest cover and that that may have contributed to increased risks of landslides during heavy rains.
“Even heavier downpours are expected as the climate warms, which underscores the urgency to prepare for similar landslides in northern Kerala,” said Maja Vahlberg, climate risk consultant at Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Center who was also an author of the study.


A gold mining town in Congo has become an mpox hot spot as a new strain spreads

Updated 6 sec ago
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A gold mining town in Congo has become an mpox hot spot as a new strain spreads

  • Mpox causes mostly mild symptoms like fever and body aches, but can trigger serious cases
  • Lack of funds, vaccines and information is making it difficult to stem the spread
KAMITUGA: Slumped on the ground over a mound of dirt, Divine Wisoba pulled weeds from her daughter’s grave. The 1-month-old died from mpox in eastern Congo in August, but Wisoba, 21, was too traumatized to attend the funeral.
In her first visit to the cemetery, she wept into her shirt for the child she lost and worried about the rest of her family. “When she was born, it was as if God had answered our prayers — we wanted a girl,” Wisoba said of little Maombi Katengey. “But our biggest joy was transformed into devastation.”
Her daughter is one of more than 6,000 people officials suspect have contracted the disease in South Kivu province, the epicenter of the world’s latest mpox outbreak, in what the World Health Organization has labeled a global health emergency. A new strain of the virus is spreading, largely through skin-to-skin contact, including but not limited to sex. A lack of funds, vaccines and information is making it difficult to stem the spread, according to alarmed disease experts.
Mpox — which causes mostly mild symptoms like fever and body aches, but can trigger serious cases with prominent blisters on the face, hands, chest and genitals — had been spreading mostly undetected for years in Africa, until a 2022 outbreak reached more than 70 countries. Globally, gay and bisexual men made up the vast majority of cases in that outbreak. But officials note mpox has long disproportionately affected children in Africa, and they say cases are now rising sharply among kids, pregnant women and other vulnerable groups, with many types of close contact responsible for the spread.
Health officials have zeroed in on Kamituga, a remote yet bustling gold mining town of some 300,000 people that attracts miners, sex workers and traders who are constantly on the move. Cases from other parts of eastern Congo can be traced back here, officials say, with the first originating in the nightclub scene.
Since this outbreak began, one year ago, nearly 1,000 people in Kamituga have been infected. Eight have died, half of them children.
Challenges on the ground
Last month, the World Health Organization said mpox outbreaks might be stopped in the next six months, with governments’ leadership and cooperation.
But in Kamituga, people say they face a starkly different reality.
There’s a daily average of five new cases at the general hospital, which is regularly near capacity. Overall in South Kivu, weekly new suspected cases have skyrocketed from about 12 in January to 600 in August, according to province health officials.
Even that’s likely an underestimate, they say, because of a lack of access to rural areas, the inability of many residents to seek care, and Kamituga’s transient nature.
Locals say they simply don’t have enough information about mpox.
Before her daughter got sick, Wisoba said, she was infected herself but didn’t know it.
Painful lesions emerged around her genitals, making walking difficult. She thought she had a common sexually transmitted infection and sought medicine at a pharmacy. Days later, she went to the hospital with her newborn and was diagnosed with mpox. She recovered, but her daughter developed lesions on her foot.
Nearly a week later, Maombi died at the same hospital that treated her mother.
Wisoba said she didn’t know about mpox until she got it. She wants the government to invest more in teaching people protective measures.
Local officials can’t reach areas more than a few miles outside Kamituga to track suspected cases or inform residents. They broadcast radio messages but say that doesn’t reach far enough.
Kasindi Mwenyelwata goes door to door describing how to detect mpox — looking for fevers, aches or lesions. But the 42-year-old community leader said a lack of money means he doesn’t have the right materials, such as posters showing images of patients, which he finds more powerful than words.
ALIMA, one of the few aid groups working on mpox in Kamituga, lacks funds to set up programs or clinics that would reach some 150,000 people, with its budget set to run out at year’s end, according to program coordinator Dr. Dally Muamba.
If support keeps waning and mpox spreads, he said, “there will be an impact on the economy, people will stop coming to the area as the epidemic takes its toll. ... And as the disease grows, will resources follow?”
The vaccine vacuum
Health experts agree: What’s needed most are vaccines — even if they go only to adults, under emergency approval in Congo.
None has arrived in Kamituga, though it’s a priority city in South Kivu, officials said. It’s unclear when or how they will. The main road into town is unpaved — barely passable by car during the ongoing rainy season.
Once they make it here, it’s unclear whether supply will meet demand for those who are at greatest risk and first in line: health staff, sex workers, miners and motorcycle taxi drivers.
Congo’s government has budgeted more than $190 million for its initial mpox response, which includes the purchase of 3 million vaccine doses, according to a draft national mpox plan, widely circulating among health experts and aid groups this month and seen by The Associated Press. But so far, just 250,000 doses have arrived in Congo and the government’s given only $10 million, according to the finance ministry.
Most people with mild cases recover in less than two weeks. But lesions can get infected, and children or immunocompromised people are more prone to severe cases.
Doctors can ensure lesions are clean and give pain medication or antibiotics for secondary infections such as sepsis.
But those who recover can get the virus again.
A new variant, a lack of understanding
Experts say a lack of resources and knowledge about the new strain makes it difficult to advise people on protecting themselves. An internal report circulated among aid groups and agencies and seen by AP labeled confidence in the available information about mpox in eastern Congo and neighboring countries low.
While the variant is known to be more easily transmissible through sex, it’s unclear how long the virus remains in the system. Doctors tell recovered patients to abstain from sex for three months, but acknowledge the number’s largely arbitrary.
“Studies haven’t clarified if you’re still contagious or not ... if you can or can’t have sex with your wife,” said Dr. Steven Bilembo, of Kamituga’s general hospital.
Doctors say they’re seeing cases they simply don’t understand, such as pregnant women losing babies. Of 32 pregnant women infected since January, nearly half lost the baby through miscarriage or stillbirth, hospital statistics show.
Alice Neema was among them. From the hospital’s isolation ward, she told AP she’d noticed lesions around her genitals and a fever — but didn’t have enough money to travel the 30 miles (50 kilometers) on motorbike for help in time. She miscarried after her diagnosis.
As information trickles in, locals say fear spreads alongside the new strain.
Diego Nyago said he’d brought his 2-year-old son, Emile, to the hospital for circumcision when he developed a fever and lepasions.
It was mpox — and today, Nyago is grateful he was already at the hospital.
“I didn’t believe that children could catch this disease,” he said as doctors gently poured water over the boy to bring his temperature down. “Some children die quickly, because their families aren’t informed.
“Those who die are the ones who stay at home.”

Blinken subpoenaed to appear next week before House committee over Afghanistan

Updated 22 min 3 sec ago
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Blinken subpoenaed to appear next week before House committee over Afghanistan

  • The committee had previously wanted Blinken to appear today but was told he was not available on September 19
  • If Secretary Blinken fails to appear now, he can be held in contempt of Congress for violating a duly issued subpoena

WASHINGTON: The US House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee subpoenaed Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Wednesday to appear before it on Sept. 24 over the chaotic US withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021.
“If Secretary Blinken fails to appear, the chairman will proceed instead with a full committee markup of a report recommending the US House of Representatives find Secretary Blinken in contempt of Congress for violating a duly issued subpoena,” according to a statement from the committee.
The committee had previously wanted Blinken to appear on Sept. 19. The State Department said earlier this month that Blinken was not available to testify on the dates proposed by the committee, but has proposed “reasonable alternatives.”
The State Department did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Reuters on Wednesday.
The Republican-led committee has been investigating the deadly and chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan for years and an appearance next week before lawmakers by Blinken over a heavily politicized issue would come just weeks before the Nov. 5 election.
Blinken has testified before Congress on Afghanistan more than 14 times, including four times before the committee, and the State Department has provided the committee with nearly 20,000 pages of records, multiple high-level briefings and transcribed interviews, a department spokesperson said earlier in September.


UN advisory body makes seven recommendations for governing AI

Updated 28 min ago
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UN advisory body makes seven recommendations for governing AI

  • Only a handful of countries have created laws to govern the spread of AI tools
  • The UN last year created a 39-member advisory body to address issues in the international governance of AI

STOCKHOLM: An artificial-intelligence advisory body at the United Nations on Thursday released its final report proposing seven recommendations to address AI-related risks and gaps in governance.
The UN last year created a 39-member advisory body to address issues in the international governance of AI. The recommendations will be discussed during a UN summit held in September.
The advisory body called for the establishment of a panel to provide impartial and reliable scientific knowledge about AI and address information asymmetries between AI labs and the rest of the world.
Since the release of Microsoft-backed OpenAI’s ChatGPT in 2022, the use of AI has spread rapidly, raising concerns about fueling misinformation, fake news and infringement of copyrighted material.
Only a handful of countries have created laws to govern the spread of AI tools. The European Union has been ahead of the rest by passing a comprehensive AI Act compared with the United States’ approach of voluntary compliance while China has aimed to maintain social stability and state control.
The United States was among about 60 countries that endorsed a “blueprint for action” to govern responsible use of AI in the military on Sept. 10, while China did not support the legally non-binding document.
With the development of AI in the hands of a few multinational companies, there is a danger that the technology could be imposed on people without them having a say in how it is used, the UN said in a statement.
It also recommended a new policy dialogue on AI governance, creating an AI standards exchange and a global AI capacity development network to boost governance capacities.
Among other proposals, the UN wants a global AI fund to be established, which would address gaps in capacity and collaboration. It also advocates the formation of a global AI data framework to ensure transparency and accountability.
Finally, the UN report proposed setting up a small AI office to support and coordinate the implementation of these proposals.


US keeps missile system in Philippines as China tensions rise, tests wartime deployment

Updated 19 September 2024
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US keeps missile system in Philippines as China tensions rise, tests wartime deployment

  • Typhon can fire missiles capable of striking China
  • China, Russia accuse Washington of fueling arms race

MANILA: The United States has no immediate plans to withdraw a mid-range missile system deployed in the Philippines, despite Chinese demands, and is testing the feasibility of its use in a regional conflict, sources with knowledge of the matter told Reuters.
The Typhon system, which can be equipped with cruise missiles capable of striking Chinese targets, was brought in for joint exercises earlier this year, both countries said at the time, but has remained there.
The Southeast Asian archipelago, Taiwan’s neighbor to the South, is an important part of US strategy in Asia and would be an indispensable staging point for the military to aid Taipei in the event of a Chinese attack.
China and Russia condemned the move – the first deployment of the system to the Indo-Pacific – and accused Washington of fueling an arms race.

Breakdown of a Typhon MRC battery's structure and components. (US Army illustration via Wikimedia Commons)

The deployment, some details of which have not been previously reported, comes as China and US defense treaty ally the Philippines clash over parts of the hotly contested South China Sea. Recent months have brought a series of sea and air confrontations in the strategic waterway.
Philippine officials said Filipino and US forces continued to train with the missile system, which is in northern Luzon, which faces the South China Sea and is close to the Taiwan Strait, and they were not aware of immediate plans to return it, even though the joint exercises end this month.
A Philippine army spokesman, Col. Louie Dema-ala, told Reuters on Wednesday that training was ongoing and it was up to the United States Army Pacific (USARPAC) to decide how long the missile system would stay.
A public affairs officer for USARPAC said that the Philippine army had said the Typhon could stay beyond September and soldiers trained with it as recently as last week, engaging “in discussions over employing the system, with a focus on integrating host nation support.”
A senior Philippine government official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, and another person familiar with the matter said the USand the Philippines were testing the feasibility of using the system there in the event of a conflict, trialing how well it worked in that environment.
The government official said the Typhon — a modular system, which is intended to be mobile and moved as needed — was in the Philippines for a “test on the feasibility of deploying it in country, so that when the need arises, it could easily be deployed here.”
The office of Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr did not respond to a request for comment.

‘Sleepless nights’
The US army flew the Typhon, which can launch missiles including SM-6 missiles and Tomahawks with a range exceeding 1,600 km (994 miles), to the Philippines in April in what it called a “historic first” and a “significant step in our partnership with the Philippines.”
A note by the US Congressional Research Service, a policy institute of the USCongress, published at the time said it was “not known if this temporary deployment could eventually become permanent.”
In July, army spokesman Dema-ala confirmed the Typhon missile launcher remained in the Philippines’ northern islands and said there was no specific date as to when it would be “shipped out,” correcting an earlier statement that it was due to leave in September.
A satellite image taken on Wednesday by Planet Labs, a commercial satellite firm, and reviewed by Reuters showed the Typhon at the Laoag International Airport, in Ilocos Norte province.

A satellite image of the Typhon missile system at Laoag International Airport in the northern Philippine city of Laoag, released on September 18, 2024, by Planet Labs Inc. (REUTERS)

Jeffrey Lewis, director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, who analyzed the images, said the system remained.
The senior government official who spoke to Reuters said there were no immediate plans to withdraw it.
“If ever it will be pulled out, it is because the objective has been achieved and it may be brought (back) in after all the repairs or the construction would have been done,” the official said, adding that there was strategic value for the Philippines in keeping the system to deter China.
“We want to give them sleepless nights.”

Anti-ship weapons
The US has been amassing a variety of anti-ship weapons in Asia, as Washington attempts to catch up quickly in an Indo-Pacific missile race in which China has a big lead, Reuters has reported.
Although the US military has declined to say how many will be deployed in the Indo-Pacific region, more than 800 SM-6 missiles are due to be bought in the next five years, according to government documents outlining military purchases. Several thousand Tomahawks are already in US inventories, the documents showed.
China has denounced the deployment of the Typhon several times, including in May when Wu Qian, spokesperson for China’s defense ministry, said Manila and Washington had brought “huge risks of war into the region”.
Russian President Vladimir Putin in June cited the deployment when announcing his country would resume production of intermediate- and shorter-range nuclear-capable missiles.
Philippine Foreign Affairs Secretary Enrique Manalo in July assured his Chinese counterpart the presence of the missile system in his country
posed no threat to China and would not destabilize the region.
China has fully militarized at least three of several islands it built in the South China Sea, which it mostly claims in full despite a 2016 arbitral ruling that backed the Philippines, arming them with anti-ship and anti-aircraft missiles, the UShas said.
China says its military facilities in the Spratly islands are purely defensive, and that it can do what it likes on its own territory.


China the top challenge in US history: senior diplomat

Updated 19 September 2024
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China the top challenge in US history: senior diplomat

  • “The Cold War pales in comparison to the multifaceted challenges that China presents,” said Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell
  • “It’s not just a military challenge; it’s across the board. It is in the Global South. It is in technology,“ he said

WASHINGTON: China presents the top challenge to the United States in all of its history, surpassing the Cold War, a top US official said Wednesday, as he urged Europe to get tougher on Beijing.
Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell, a key architect of a 15-year push for the United States to reorient its foreign policy toward Asia, also urged greater US investment in advanced technology to compete better with China.
“There is a recognition that this is the most significant challenge in our history,” Campbell told the House Foreign Affairs Committee.
“Frankly, the Cold War pales in comparison to the multifaceted challenges that China presents,” he said.
“It’s not just a military challenge; it’s across the board. It is in the Global South. It is in technology. We need to step up our game across the board.”
President Joe Biden’s administration has been pressing China about technology exports to Russia that US officials say have allowed Moscow to ramp up military production for its war in Ukraine.
“The challenge is, we’ve got to get more support here on this,” Campbell said of US sanctions on Chinese firms, an issue he said he has been raising on visits to Europe.
Campbell said that most of Washington’s European allies shared concerns on China’s ties with Moscow but were still reeling from the “huge shock” of slashing energy imports from Russia since its invasion of Ukraine.
“For many of these countries, doing business with China has been a big deal for 15 or 20 years,” he said.
Acting on China, after Russia, could feel like “kind of a one-two punch. You can understand leaders in Europe have some anxieties.”
China argues that, unlike the United States, it is not providing weapons to either Russia or Ukraine, but Washington says Beijing is providing support that has military uses.

Campbell’s tough talk comes despite easing tensions between the United States and China under Biden, with Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump more frequently speaking in Cold War terms about confronting Beijing.
Biden and his political heir Kamala Harris have supported dialogue with China even as their administration presses ahead with tough measures including a sweeping ban on exports of advanced chips.
Since a summit last year between Biden and President Xi Jinping in California, China has agreed to key US requests of restoring military communications and cracking down on ingredients in fentanyl, the drug behind a US overdose epidemic.
Campbell contended that the Biden administration has strengthened the US position since taking over from Trump, in part by bolstering alliances.
“Four years ago, the general view globally was that China had eaten our lunch, that they were going to surpass us, economically and commercially, that we were in the midst of some sort of hurtling decline,” he said.
“I do not think that is what the general belief is today.”
Meeting another key ask of the Biden administration, China freed an American pastor, David Lin, who had been detained since 2006, the State Department confirmed Sunday.
The United States had raised the case of Lin and other detained Americans with China, including when Secretary of State Antony Blinken met his counterpart Wang Yi on the sidelines of a meeting in Laos in July.
The State Department considers two other US citizens, Kai Li and Mark Swidan, to be wrongfully detained by China, but activists say far more Americans are behind bars or prohibited from exiting.
The mother of Swidan, detained over drug trafficking charges he denies, told a separate congressional hearing that Biden needs to engage with China on its proposals to free him.
“His case is a clear injustice, yet it continues to be ignored by those with the power to act,” she said in a statement to the Congressional-Executive Commission on China.
Peter Humphrey, who was detained with his wife in China from 2013 to 2015 and has since become a specialist on such cases, said a “massive number” of Americans cannot publicly raise their cases for fear of retribution by Beijing.
He said he was held with 11 other men in a packed cell with no privacy or furniture, sleeping on the floor and eating from dog bowls pushed under the bars.
He said he lost 22 pounds (10 kilos) while in detention, which he described as “torture designed to crush the human spirit and force out a confession.”