Invading Russia is a gamble that may pay off for Zelensky

What, exactly, Ukraine’s endgame is with the Kursk operation remains an open question.

The incursion might be President Volodymyr Zelensky’s boldest and riskiest gamble, a masterful strike that could bring about change within Russia and its leadership.

If we are to believe Ukrainian claims that the operation is aimed solely at forcing Russia to redeploy fighting forces away from the northern front lines near Kharkiv, the chances are the move could backfire if Russia mounts a counterpunch, with reprisals that many fear will be bloody.

No doubt, Ukraine has been on the back foot since its long-awaited, but unsuccessful, offensive last summer, and Zelensky is desperate to change the narrative that it is losing the war despite its successes against Russian forces in the Black Sea, as well as in Crimea.

Regardless of its aims, the incursion so far has lasted more than a week and claimed 1,000 sq. km of Russian territory, according to Ukraine’s generals — the first time a foreign force has set foot on Russian soil since 1941. And although Russian President Vladimir Putin has accused the West of being behind the operation — a claim the US and other allies reject — his regime finds itself in a tight corner.

The images from Kursk will shock the Russian public

Mohamed Chebaro

The images from Kursk will shock the Russian public. In his assessment to his military leadership, Putin said that the operation is aimed at sowing discord among the local population and trying to improve Kiev’s position in any future negotiations — claims that might not be totally wrong.

Experts have praised the complex preparations for the incursion, with Ukraine relying on total secrecy and the use of electronic warfare techniques to blind Russians border defense units and blunt aerial surveillance.

Military strategists are trying to establish the reasoning behind the Ukrainian step — and in history, only the 1950 Inchon landings during the Korean War offer a counterpunch strategy that was as risky. But that operation was aimed at turning a whole offensive around, while the objectives of the Kursk incursion will be much more limited.

Though the speed and suddenness of the Ukrainian operation appears to have caught Russian forces and the leadership by surprise, it is most likely a desperate act to try to disrupt Russian supply lines to troops near Kharkiv. However, the strike demonstrates that Ukraine is still capable of mounting cross-border raids, sending a message to Russians that they cannot sit easily at home while invading a neighboring country.

Since February 2022, Kyiv has struggled to defend itself, while occasionally carrying out attacks targeting Russian territory aimed at tarnishing the invader’s image of invincibility. Stunts such as flying drones over Moscow and almost hitting the Kremlin were part of this strategy.

It is impossible not to praise Ukraine’s audacity

Mohamed Chebaro

There was also success with the sinking of key Russian navy ships, and the limiting of Russian naval activities in the Black and Azov seas. Attacks on the Kerch bridge linking mainland Russia and Crimea were also effective in exposing Russian vulnerabilities and weaknesses, while other operations revealed Ukraine’s ability to engage in covert operations targeting military units, and the arms and oil industries using sabotage, drones strikes, and long-range missiles.

Other attacks have taken place inside Russia, mainly in border regions, such as Kursk, Belgorod and Bryansk Oblast. But these were undertaken by anti-war, anti-Putin Russian forces supported by Ukraine, with raids on lightly defended border settlements and towns before withdrawing back into Ukraine-held areas.

The next phase of the Kursk incursion depends on what reserves each side has available and how it deploys them, in a race against time for both sides. The longer the operation lasts and Ukrainian forces increase their gains, the more Putin is likely to feel pressured to respond with any means at his disposal. He has described the attack as a terrorist act, which in the Russian leader’s lexicon means that anything will be permitted.

The other problem for Kyiv is that the initial incursion seems to have been more successful than expected, requiring the deployment of additional manpower and military resources desperately needed elsewhere. Although the Ukrainian forces are likely to dig in and fight, their efforts are unlikely to change the fundamentals present on the front line in the east of Ukraine, where Russian troops are advancing slowly against outgunned and outnumbered Ukrainian forces.

It is impossible not to praise Ukraine’s audacity and its leadership’s bravery in deciding to stand up and fight the forces of an invading superpower. If doubt begins to seep into the upper echelons of the Kremlin, with the suggestion that Russia is risking its peace and stability after losing face against a far weaker enemy, then the sacrifices of the Kursk operation will have been worthwhile.

The longer the Ukraine incursion survives, the more unpredictable Moscow will become — and that is likely to determine whether the gamble was worthwhile or a blatant miscalculation.

• Mohamed Chebaro is a British Lebanese journalist with more than 25 years of experience covering war, terrorism, defense, current affairs and diplomacy. He is also a media consultant and trainer.