Why averting a regional war in the Middle East is top priority for both US presidential candidates

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Palestinians carry a casualty at the site of an Israeli airstrike on a shelter housing displaced people in central Gaza Strip, on August 17, 2024. (REUTERS)
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Updated 18 August 2024
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Why averting a regional war in the Middle East is top priority for both US presidential candidates

  • Republican nominee Trump has claimed ongoing crisis may set off a world war that only he can avert if he is returned to office
  • His rival Harris has expressed “serious concern” over scale of suffering in Gaza, including “far too many innocent” civilians’ deaths

LONDON: Domestic issues like the cost of living tend to dominate the minds of US voters ahead of election season. However, few can have ignored the gathering clouds of war in the Middle East and what this might mean for US allies in the region.

Indeed, events in Israel, Iran, and the Arab countries that have been dragged into their regional rivalry have already become a key feature of debate in November’s race for the White House, with the contenders setting out opposing positions.

Characteristically, Donald Trump, the Republican presidential nominee and former president, has said an escalating crisis in the Middle East could trigger a third world war — a catastrophe that only he could avert if he is returned to office.

During an interview on Aug. 12 with Elon Musk on the tech entrepreneur’s social media platform X, Trump said neither the war in Ukraine nor the conflict in Gaza would have happened had he occupied the White House instead of the incumbent Joe Biden.




Former US President Donald Trump. (AFP)

“If I were in office, the (Hamas-led) attack on Israel would never have happened, Russia would never have invaded Ukraine, we wouldn’t have inflation in our country, and the disaster in Afghanistan wouldn’t have occurred,” he said.

Promising he would contain the threats emanating from Tehran, he added: “All this stuff that you’re seeing now, all the horror that you look at. Israel, they’re all waiting for an attack from Iran. Iran would not be attacking, believe me.”

On the day Trump’s interview aired, the Israeli military said it was at “peak readiness” for a retaliatory attack for its killing of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on Aug. 3 and senior Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut on July 30.




Lebanese residents inspect the damage to a building after an Israeli strike in the southern town of Kfour, in the Nabatiyeh district, on August 17, 2024, amid the ongoing cross-border clashes between Israeli troops and Hezbollah fighters. (AFP)

White House national security spokesperson John Kirby, meanwhile, said that while “it is difficult to ascertain at this particular time, if there is an attack by Iran and or its proxies, what that could look like,” Israel and the US had to be “prepared for what could be a significant set of attacks.”

President Biden has sought out the support of his counterparts in the UK, France, Germany and Italy to help de-escalate tensions in the region and also broker a ceasefire deal between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas in Gaza.

The conflict in Gaza, which followed the Oct. 7 Hamas-led attack on southern Israel, has spilled over into neighboring countries, with Israeli rockets and drones striking targets across Syria and Lebanon, and the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia trading fire with Israel on the Lebanese border.

In a joint statement, the European leaders called on Iran to “stand down its ongoing threats of a military attack against Israel,” and highlighted “the serious consequences for regional security should such an attack take place.”

Trump’s pledge to prevent an Iranian counterattack is couched in his full-blooded support for Israel.

During his interview with Musk, Trump accused his opponent, the Democratic nominee Vice President Kamala Harris, of being “so anti-Israel” and having chosen “an anti-Israel radical left person” as her running mate, referring to Harris’s vice-presidential nominee Tim Walz.




Israeli artillery units are positioned on the southern Israel border with the Gaza Strip, waiting to strike more targets. (AFP)

Trump’s support for Israel is widely recognized. In July, the leader of the Republican Jewish Coalition, Matt Brooks, said he believes Trump will give Israel a “blank check” to eliminate Hamas in Gaza should be return to office.

During the first presidential debate with Biden in June when he was still the Democratic Party’s nominee, Trump had called the outgoing president “a very bad Palestinian” who does not want to help Israel “finish the job” against Hamas.

“He doesn’t want to do it. He’s become like a Palestinian — but they don’t like him because he’s a very bad Palestinian, he’s a weak one,” Trump said. This came despite Biden reiterating his strong support for Israel in its war against Hamas.

INNUMBERS

$20 billion US weapons package sale to Israel approved on Aug. 13, including fighter jets and advanced air-to-air missiles.

$674 million US contribution to humanitarian aid for Palestinians since Oct. 7, 2023.

Harris was chosen to replace Biden as the Democratic nominee after his poor performance in June’s debate raised concerns about his cognitive abilities. Although she is keen to reduce tensions in the Middle East, Harris has been critical of Israel’s conduct in Gaza.

While incessantly reaffirming her “unwavering commitment” to the existence and security of Israel, she stressed in her Arizona campaign speech on Aug. 9 that “now is the time” to secure a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal, adding that she and Biden are working “around the clock every day” to achieve this.

Harris also expressed her “serious concern about the scale of human suffering in Gaza, including the death of far too many innocent civilians” during a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on June 25.




US Vice President Kamala Harris meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Washington last month. (AFP/File)

“I made clear my serious concern about the dire humanitarian situation there, with over 2 million people facing high levels of food insecurity and half a million people facing catastrophic levels of acute food insecurity,” she said following the meeting.

“What has happened in Gaza over the past nine months is devastating — the images of dead children and desperate, hungry people fleeing for safety, sometimes displaced for the second, third, or fourth time.

“We cannot look away in the face of these tragedies. We cannot allow ourselves to become numb to the suffering. And I will not be silent.”

In addition to killing more than 40,000 people in Gaza, at least 15,000 of them children, Israel’s bombing campaign in Gaza has brought health and sanitation services to their knees, wounded tens of thousands, and displaced some 1.9 million of the enclave’s 2.1 million population.




Palestinians mourn their relatives, killed in an Israeli strike, at the Al-Aqsa Martyrs hospital in Deir Al-Balah in the central Gaza Strip on August 17, 2024. (AFP)

Humanitarian aid agencies and human rights organizations have accused the Israeli government of committing war crimes against Palestinians, including the deliberate starvation of civilians in Gaza.

However, as far as the US election is concerned, debates and disagreements over the conflict appear somewhat superficial.

Ray Hanania, an award-winning former Chicago City Hall political reporter and columnist, believes “the two major party candidates are focused on addressing the politics of a potential widening regional war in the Middle East, but not in its causes.”

He told Arab News: “Both Harris and Trump are addressing the conflict in a limited way by expressing concerns for the unprecedented humanitarian crisis facing Gaza’s population, careful to only define that population in generic terms not as suffering civilians, women and children.

“Both Harris and Trump are instead more focused on the politics of the potential conflict, blaming Iran, for example, and urging Arab states to refrain from engaging in the Gaza conflict.”

The two candidates, he said, “conspicuously avoid the cause of the conflict, which is Israel’s excessive and unbridled military violence in Gaza fueled by funding from the US government, including $20 billion given to Israel’s government by Congress this week.




Palestinian children carry an empty US ammunition container in Khan Yunis in the southern Gaza Strip. US President Joe Biden has been unable to carry out his threats to withhold weapons of war from Israel despite the excessive and unbridled Israeli military violence in Gaza. (AFP)

“They don’t want to anger the political constituencies that support Israel, and then lose that vote in the upcoming presidential election, but they want to appear to be sympathetic to human suffering.”

He added: “This is all about politics, preserving their voter support — not about achieving real peace.”

Lebanese economist Nadim Shehadi also believes that “everything is now linked to the campaign circus and not about allies, interests, and there is certainly no strategy,” adding that it is unlikely “anyone in the region will listen to the US” until well after the election.

“This is too far ahead now,” he told Arab News. “Whoever wins the election in November will be inaugurated in January, and it will take around six months before they have a functioning administration — and who knows how much longer to have a policy strategy to implement.”

However, in a bid to stave off a full-fledged war in the Middle East, Shehadi expects that a victorious Harris administration would “engage with Iran” while a new Trump administration would more likely “engage with the Gulf countries.”

He said: “President Biden should have gone to the Gulf states in early October for help.”

Dania Koleilat Khatib, an expert in US-Arab relations and co-founder of the Lebanon-based Research Center for Cooperation and Peace Building, believes Arab and Muslim communities in the US are “becoming more vocal and active,” thereby gaining greater influence in elections and in public affairs. “Those two factors make it imperative for both Harris and Trump to tackle the issue,” she said.




Demonstrators protest in support of the Palestinians who have died in Gaza outside of the Arab American National Museum in Dearborn, Michigan, on August 11, 2024. (AFP)

Addressing the Palestinian issue will require the next US president, regardless of who wins, to pressure Israel into reaching a fair solution, said Koleilat Khatib. To achieve this, they will have “no other choice” but to cooperate with regional allies like Saudi Arabia.

“First of all, the US should pressure Israel to accept a two-state solution — to accept at least an irreversible step,” she said. “So here, there will be a trade-off: regional recognition of Israel in return for a Palestinian state, which is not a new idea.

“This is what came in the Arab Peace Initiative. While this is not new, now I think the Americans will push for it and will take it more seriously — and, of course, they need to cooperate with Saudi Arabia.”

The Arab Peace Initiative was proposed by Saudi Arabia’s late King Abdullah in 2002 to end the Arab–Israeli conflict. The Arab League endorsed the plan at the Beirut Summit that same year. It was re-endorsed at the 2007 and 2017 Arab League summits.




Maps showing the changes in Israel's borders since 1947. (AFP/ File)

The peace plan offers Israel normalization with all Arab states in return for its withdrawal from all territories occupied in 1967, the establishment of an independent and sovereign Palestinian state, and a just solution for Palestinian refugees.

Koleilat Khatib believes the US will also need to cooperate with regional allies like Saudi Arabia for the reconstruction of Gaza as well as peacekeeping.

“Israel has not yet agreed to make any concession because it enjoys unconditional support from the US,” she said. “The question is whether the US will be willing to pressure Israel. So far, the pressure has been minimal and mostly rhetorical, while in reality, arms transfers have continued smoothly, and Israel has been receiving the bombs it needs.

“As we head into the election season, the question is whether we’ll see members of Congress willing to stand against Israel.”
 

 


Missile launched from Yemen into Israel intercepted, Israeli army says

Updated 26 April 2025
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Missile launched from Yemen into Israel intercepted, Israeli army says

CAIRO: The Israeli army said in the early hours of Saturday that a missile that was launched from Yemen was intercepted before crossing into Israeli territory.
Sirens sounded in a number of areas in Israel following the launch, the Israeli army added in a statement.
There was no immediate comment from Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis, who have been launching attacks against Israel as well as ships they perceive as affiliated to Israel, in what they say is to support the Palestinians in Gaza against the Israeli offensive on the enclave.


Former Lebanese PM Diab questioned over Beirut port blast

Updated 25 April 2025
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Former Lebanese PM Diab questioned over Beirut port blast

  • Investigation gains momentum as French official files transferred to Judge Tarek Bitar
  • Lebanese President Aoun reiterates importance of judiciary in securing broader reform

BEIRUT: Former Lebanese Prime Minister Hassan Diab appeared before Judge Tarek Bitar on Friday for questioning related to the devastating Beirut port explosion of Aug. 4, 2020. 

Diab was interrogated for two and a half hours before being remanded for further questions. The session came a week after Bitar questioned former Interior Minister Nohad Machnouk.

In recent weeks, former General Security Chief Maj. Gen. Abbas Ibrahim and former Head of State Security Maj. Gen. Tony Saliba also appeared before the judge.

The explosion devastated the capital’s waterfront, resulted in thousands of casualties, and has been compared in scale to a nuclear bomb.

It prompted widespread outrage both at home and abroad due to the long-term neglect in safely storing large quantities of ammonium nitrate at the port.

Diab, who was prime minister at the time of the explosion, had previously failed to attend hearings into the disaster for various reasons, notably claiming that “the investigative judge lacked jurisdiction to question” him, or stating that he was abroad.

For more than 18 months, several individuals contested their summons, arguing that Bitar was not the appropriate authority to investigate them.

They also initiated lawsuits against Bitar, whose work was suspended for a significant period due to political pressures and legal challenges.

During their unexpected appearances before the investigative judge, these individuals all expressed their intention to cooperate.

In Lebanon, political and judicial powers are intertwined, contrary to the constitution’s separation of powers principle.

The judiciary is mostly subject to political pressure, starting with judicial appointments, as with other institutions and administrations, which hinders reform efforts and the full independence of the judiciary.

A ministerial source told Arab News that President Joseph Aoun had always stressed two key pillars essential for the state’s recovery are security and the judiciary.

“The security appointments have been finalized, and measures are in place to restore security.

“The minister of justice and the High Judicial Council are actively working on judicial appointments to restore processes free from political interference and corruption.

“These procedures have started to affect the justice system, and everyone has begun to understand that the authority of the judiciary is not negotiable; the previously accepted method is no longer valid.”

The source emphasized that gaining political support for the judiciary is essential to shield it from interference.

This should be prioritized, particularly in light of the president’s commitment to maintaining judicial independence.

Additionally, Prime Minister Nawaf Salam is dedicated to implementing the ministerial statement that received unanimous support through the vote of confidence in his government, said the source.

Political authorities are still debating the law on judicial independence, but it remains unapproved and is currently stalled in joint parliamentary committees.

Aoun has previously stressed his belief in the judiciary as a cornerstone of reform.

In a recent meeting with the Bar Association, he noted that the challenge is not the coubtry’s laws themselves, but their implementation and accountability for violations.

“Too often, laws are interpreted for personal gain and interests. By working together, individuals committed to justice and accountability can address imbalances, fight corruption, and promote responsibility,” he said.

“Only the judiciary has the authority to deter offenders and corruption,” the president added.

Currently, the High Judicial Council is investigating bribery cases involving several judges and has issued a preliminary arrest warrant for one of them, who was arrested and transferred to the prison run by the General Directorate of Internal Security Forces.

The council recently set up three bodies to investigate cases against judges.

Lawyer Ghida Frangieh — who represents victims of the Beirut port explosion — told Arab News that the “renewed cooperation between the Public Prosecution and investigative Judge Bitar is a crucial development.

“It will help revive the port explosion case and allow the investigation to continue until an indictment is issued and, ultimately, a trial takes place,” Frangieh said.

“The election of the republic’s president, setting up a functional government instead of a caretaker government, and the political will for reform would collectively help reactivate Lebanon’s judicial system.

“This should have been the scenario in the port investigations three years ago, and all pending judicial cases should now be addressed and resolved in due order,” Frangieh added.

A French delegation is set to arrive in Beirut next Monday, following the transfer of judicial summons from the Public Prosecution at the Court of Cassation in Lebanon to France.

Bitar has requested access to French investigations regarding the port explosion, and the French judiciary has expressed willingness to support the judge by providing all necessary files and documents for his investigation.

Several French nationals were among those killed and injured in the Beirut port explosion.


US says blast near UNESCO world heritage site caused by Houthi missile

A picture shows a view of UNESCO-listed buildings in the old city of the Yemeni capital Sanaa on July 12, 2023. (AFP file photo)
Updated 26 April 2025
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US says blast near UNESCO world heritage site caused by Houthi missile

  • A Houthi official was quoted by the New York Times as saying the American denial was an attempt to smear the Houthis

WASHINGTON: The US military said a blast on Sunday near a UNESCO world heritage site in Yemen’s capital city of Sanaa was caused by a Houthi missile and not an American airstrike.
The Houthi-run Health Ministry said a dozen people were killed in the US strike in a neighborhood of Sanaa. The Old City of Sanaa is a recognized UNESCO World Heritage Site.
The US ordered the intensification of strikes on Yemen last month, with officials saying they will continue assaulting Houthis until they stop attacking Red Sea shipping.
A US Central Command spokesperson said the damage and casualties described by Houthi officials “likely did occur,” but a US attack did not cause them.
The spokesperson said the closest US strike was more than 5 km away that night.
The US military assessed that the damage was caused by a “Houthi air defense missile” based on a review of “local reporting, including videos documenting Arabic writing on the missile’s fragments at the market,” the spokesperson said, adding the Houthis subsequently arrested Yemenis.
A Houthi official was quoted by the New York Times as saying the American denial was an attempt to smear the Houthis.
Recent US strikes have killed dozens, including 74 at an oil terminal on Thursday in what was the deadliest strike in Yemen under Trump so far, according to the local Health Ministry.
The US military says the strikes aim to cut off the Houthi militant group’s military and economic capabilities.
Rights advocates have raised concerns about civilian killings, and three Democratic senators, including Sen. Chris Van Hollen, wrote to Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth on Thursday, demanding an accounting for the loss of civilian lives.
The Houthis have taken control of swaths of Yemen over the past decade.
Since November 2023, they have launched drone and missile attacks on vessels in the Red Sea, saying they were targeting ships linked to Israel.

 


Flow of Sudan war refugees puts Chad camp under strain

Sudanese refugees fill jerry cans with water at the Touloum refugee camp in the Wadi Fira province, Chad, on April 8, 2025. (AFP
Updated 25 April 2025
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Flow of Sudan war refugees puts Chad camp under strain

  • Chad has taken in more than 770,000 of them, according to the UN refugee agency — with many more likely on their way

IRIBA, Chad: Nadjala Mourraou held her haggard two-year-old son in her henna-tattooed hands for the medics to examine. Then came the painful diagnosis: little Ahma, like many of his fellow Sudanese refugees, was severely malnourished.
The pair were toward the front of a long line snaking out of the doctors’ tent at an already overcrowded refugee camp in east Chad, creaking under the strain as more and more people fleeing the civil war across the nearby border with Sudan turn up.
“We’re suffering from a lack of food,” complained the mother, who fled the fighting in Nyala, in Sudan’s South Darfur region, with Ahma more than a year ago.
Since their arrival at the Touloum camp, Mourraou added that all she and Ahma had to eat each day was a bowl of assida, a porridge made from sorghum.
Yet, as with other conditions at the camp, this meagre ration could deteriorate further as the war between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces drags on.
Besides killing tens of thousands, the two-year conflict has uprooted 13 million people, more than three million of whom have fled the country as refugees.
Chad has taken in more than 770,000 of them, according to the UN refugee agency — with many more likely on their way.
Between 25,000 and 30,000 Sudanese refugees already live in the makeshift sheet metal and white canvas tents, packed together across the arid Touloum camp, according to sources.
Recently, more and more of them have become malnourished, said Dessamba Adam Ngarhoudal, a nurse with medical charity Doctors Without Borders, or MSF.
“Out of 100 to 150 daily consultations, nearly half of them deal with cases of malnutrition,” said the 25-year-old medic.
The worst cases are sent to the Iriba district hospital, around half an hour’s drive away.
But the hospital was powerless to stop the first Sudanese infant dying of malnutrition under its care.
“Since the beginning of the month, we have already exceeded the capacity of the malnutrition ward at the hospital,” said MSF nurse Hassan Patayamou recently.
“And we expect admissions to continue to rise as the hot season progresses and temperatures rise above 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit).”
With the fighting set to grind on, Chad’s government fears the number of Sudanese refugees in the country could soon reach nearly a million.
That burden would be too heavy for impoverished Chad to bear alone, argues the UN High Commissioner for Refugees.
The refugee agency was seeking $409 million in aid to help the Sahel country — only 14 percent of which it had received by the end of February.
“The Chadian people have a tradition of welcoming their Sudanese brothers in distress,” said Djimbaye Kam-Ndoh, governor of Wadi Fira province where the Touloum camp is located.
“But the province’s population has practically doubled, and we’re asking for major support.”
Humanitarian groups are worried about the impact of US President Donald Trump’s move to freeze America’s foreign aid budget, while other donors, notably in Europe, have also made cuts to their financing.
“Hundreds of thousands of lives are at stake,” Alexandre Le Cuziat, the UN’s World Food Programme deputy director in Chad, said in a phone call.
Nearly 25 million people are suffering from acute food insecurity in Sudan itself, according to the WFP.
And with the rainy season just under two months away, medics fear outbreaks of diseases.
“We’re preparing for an explosion of cases of malnutrition and malaria,” said Samuel Sileshi, emergencies services coordinator for MSF in Central Darfur state.
“This year, we are also facing measles epidemics in Darfur,” he said.
That unhealthy cocktail of diseases, he warned, “could have devastating consequences,” not least for children.

 


WFP says has depleted all its food stocks in Gaza

Updated 25 April 2025
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WFP says has depleted all its food stocks in Gaza

  • Entry of all humanitarian aid has been blocked by Israel since March 2

GAZA CITY, Palestinian Territories: The UN’s World Food Programme on Friday warned it has depleted all its food stocks in war-ravaged Gaza, where the entry of all humanitarian aid has been blocked by Israel since March 2.
“Today, WFP delivered its last remaining food stocks to hot meals kitchens in the Gaza Strip. These kitchens are expected to fully run out of food in the coming days,” WFP said in a statement.