Why averting a regional war in the Middle East is top priority for both US presidential candidates

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Palestinians carry a casualty at the site of an Israeli airstrike on a shelter housing displaced people in central Gaza Strip, on August 17, 2024. (REUTERS)
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Updated 18 August 2024
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Why averting a regional war in the Middle East is top priority for both US presidential candidates

  • Republican nominee Trump has claimed ongoing crisis may set off a world war that only he can avert if he is returned to office
  • His rival Harris has expressed “serious concern” over scale of suffering in Gaza, including “far too many innocent” civilians’ deaths

LONDON: Domestic issues like the cost of living tend to dominate the minds of US voters ahead of election season. However, few can have ignored the gathering clouds of war in the Middle East and what this might mean for US allies in the region.

Indeed, events in Israel, Iran, and the Arab countries that have been dragged into their regional rivalry have already become a key feature of debate in November’s race for the White House, with the contenders setting out opposing positions.

Characteristically, Donald Trump, the Republican presidential nominee and former president, has said an escalating crisis in the Middle East could trigger a third world war — a catastrophe that only he could avert if he is returned to office.

During an interview on Aug. 12 with Elon Musk on the tech entrepreneur’s social media platform X, Trump said neither the war in Ukraine nor the conflict in Gaza would have happened had he occupied the White House instead of the incumbent Joe Biden.




Former US President Donald Trump. (AFP)

“If I were in office, the (Hamas-led) attack on Israel would never have happened, Russia would never have invaded Ukraine, we wouldn’t have inflation in our country, and the disaster in Afghanistan wouldn’t have occurred,” he said.

Promising he would contain the threats emanating from Tehran, he added: “All this stuff that you’re seeing now, all the horror that you look at. Israel, they’re all waiting for an attack from Iran. Iran would not be attacking, believe me.”

On the day Trump’s interview aired, the Israeli military said it was at “peak readiness” for a retaliatory attack for its killing of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on Aug. 3 and senior Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut on July 30.




Lebanese residents inspect the damage to a building after an Israeli strike in the southern town of Kfour, in the Nabatiyeh district, on August 17, 2024, amid the ongoing cross-border clashes between Israeli troops and Hezbollah fighters. (AFP)

White House national security spokesperson John Kirby, meanwhile, said that while “it is difficult to ascertain at this particular time, if there is an attack by Iran and or its proxies, what that could look like,” Israel and the US had to be “prepared for what could be a significant set of attacks.”

President Biden has sought out the support of his counterparts in the UK, France, Germany and Italy to help de-escalate tensions in the region and also broker a ceasefire deal between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas in Gaza.

The conflict in Gaza, which followed the Oct. 7 Hamas-led attack on southern Israel, has spilled over into neighboring countries, with Israeli rockets and drones striking targets across Syria and Lebanon, and the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia trading fire with Israel on the Lebanese border.

In a joint statement, the European leaders called on Iran to “stand down its ongoing threats of a military attack against Israel,” and highlighted “the serious consequences for regional security should such an attack take place.”

Trump’s pledge to prevent an Iranian counterattack is couched in his full-blooded support for Israel.

During his interview with Musk, Trump accused his opponent, the Democratic nominee Vice President Kamala Harris, of being “so anti-Israel” and having chosen “an anti-Israel radical left person” as her running mate, referring to Harris’s vice-presidential nominee Tim Walz.




Israeli artillery units are positioned on the southern Israel border with the Gaza Strip, waiting to strike more targets. (AFP)

Trump’s support for Israel is widely recognized. In July, the leader of the Republican Jewish Coalition, Matt Brooks, said he believes Trump will give Israel a “blank check” to eliminate Hamas in Gaza should be return to office.

During the first presidential debate with Biden in June when he was still the Democratic Party’s nominee, Trump had called the outgoing president “a very bad Palestinian” who does not want to help Israel “finish the job” against Hamas.

“He doesn’t want to do it. He’s become like a Palestinian — but they don’t like him because he’s a very bad Palestinian, he’s a weak one,” Trump said. This came despite Biden reiterating his strong support for Israel in its war against Hamas.

INNUMBERS

$20 billion US weapons package sale to Israel approved on Aug. 13, including fighter jets and advanced air-to-air missiles.

$674 million US contribution to humanitarian aid for Palestinians since Oct. 7, 2023.

Harris was chosen to replace Biden as the Democratic nominee after his poor performance in June’s debate raised concerns about his cognitive abilities. Although she is keen to reduce tensions in the Middle East, Harris has been critical of Israel’s conduct in Gaza.

While incessantly reaffirming her “unwavering commitment” to the existence and security of Israel, she stressed in her Arizona campaign speech on Aug. 9 that “now is the time” to secure a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal, adding that she and Biden are working “around the clock every day” to achieve this.

Harris also expressed her “serious concern about the scale of human suffering in Gaza, including the death of far too many innocent civilians” during a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on June 25.




US Vice President Kamala Harris meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Washington last month. (AFP/File)

“I made clear my serious concern about the dire humanitarian situation there, with over 2 million people facing high levels of food insecurity and half a million people facing catastrophic levels of acute food insecurity,” she said following the meeting.

“What has happened in Gaza over the past nine months is devastating — the images of dead children and desperate, hungry people fleeing for safety, sometimes displaced for the second, third, or fourth time.

“We cannot look away in the face of these tragedies. We cannot allow ourselves to become numb to the suffering. And I will not be silent.”

In addition to killing more than 40,000 people in Gaza, at least 15,000 of them children, Israel’s bombing campaign in Gaza has brought health and sanitation services to their knees, wounded tens of thousands, and displaced some 1.9 million of the enclave’s 2.1 million population.




Palestinians mourn their relatives, killed in an Israeli strike, at the Al-Aqsa Martyrs hospital in Deir Al-Balah in the central Gaza Strip on August 17, 2024. (AFP)

Humanitarian aid agencies and human rights organizations have accused the Israeli government of committing war crimes against Palestinians, including the deliberate starvation of civilians in Gaza.

However, as far as the US election is concerned, debates and disagreements over the conflict appear somewhat superficial.

Ray Hanania, an award-winning former Chicago City Hall political reporter and columnist, believes “the two major party candidates are focused on addressing the politics of a potential widening regional war in the Middle East, but not in its causes.”

He told Arab News: “Both Harris and Trump are addressing the conflict in a limited way by expressing concerns for the unprecedented humanitarian crisis facing Gaza’s population, careful to only define that population in generic terms not as suffering civilians, women and children.

“Both Harris and Trump are instead more focused on the politics of the potential conflict, blaming Iran, for example, and urging Arab states to refrain from engaging in the Gaza conflict.”

The two candidates, he said, “conspicuously avoid the cause of the conflict, which is Israel’s excessive and unbridled military violence in Gaza fueled by funding from the US government, including $20 billion given to Israel’s government by Congress this week.




Palestinian children carry an empty US ammunition container in Khan Yunis in the southern Gaza Strip. US President Joe Biden has been unable to carry out his threats to withhold weapons of war from Israel despite the excessive and unbridled Israeli military violence in Gaza. (AFP)

“They don’t want to anger the political constituencies that support Israel, and then lose that vote in the upcoming presidential election, but they want to appear to be sympathetic to human suffering.”

He added: “This is all about politics, preserving their voter support — not about achieving real peace.”

Lebanese economist Nadim Shehadi also believes that “everything is now linked to the campaign circus and not about allies, interests, and there is certainly no strategy,” adding that it is unlikely “anyone in the region will listen to the US” until well after the election.

“This is too far ahead now,” he told Arab News. “Whoever wins the election in November will be inaugurated in January, and it will take around six months before they have a functioning administration — and who knows how much longer to have a policy strategy to implement.”

However, in a bid to stave off a full-fledged war in the Middle East, Shehadi expects that a victorious Harris administration would “engage with Iran” while a new Trump administration would more likely “engage with the Gulf countries.”

He said: “President Biden should have gone to the Gulf states in early October for help.”

Dania Koleilat Khatib, an expert in US-Arab relations and co-founder of the Lebanon-based Research Center for Cooperation and Peace Building, believes Arab and Muslim communities in the US are “becoming more vocal and active,” thereby gaining greater influence in elections and in public affairs. “Those two factors make it imperative for both Harris and Trump to tackle the issue,” she said.




Demonstrators protest in support of the Palestinians who have died in Gaza outside of the Arab American National Museum in Dearborn, Michigan, on August 11, 2024. (AFP)

Addressing the Palestinian issue will require the next US president, regardless of who wins, to pressure Israel into reaching a fair solution, said Koleilat Khatib. To achieve this, they will have “no other choice” but to cooperate with regional allies like Saudi Arabia.

“First of all, the US should pressure Israel to accept a two-state solution — to accept at least an irreversible step,” she said. “So here, there will be a trade-off: regional recognition of Israel in return for a Palestinian state, which is not a new idea.

“This is what came in the Arab Peace Initiative. While this is not new, now I think the Americans will push for it and will take it more seriously — and, of course, they need to cooperate with Saudi Arabia.”

The Arab Peace Initiative was proposed by Saudi Arabia’s late King Abdullah in 2002 to end the Arab–Israeli conflict. The Arab League endorsed the plan at the Beirut Summit that same year. It was re-endorsed at the 2007 and 2017 Arab League summits.




Maps showing the changes in Israel's borders since 1947. (AFP/ File)

The peace plan offers Israel normalization with all Arab states in return for its withdrawal from all territories occupied in 1967, the establishment of an independent and sovereign Palestinian state, and a just solution for Palestinian refugees.

Koleilat Khatib believes the US will also need to cooperate with regional allies like Saudi Arabia for the reconstruction of Gaza as well as peacekeeping.

“Israel has not yet agreed to make any concession because it enjoys unconditional support from the US,” she said. “The question is whether the US will be willing to pressure Israel. So far, the pressure has been minimal and mostly rhetorical, while in reality, arms transfers have continued smoothly, and Israel has been receiving the bombs it needs.

“As we head into the election season, the question is whether we’ll see members of Congress willing to stand against Israel.”
 

 


Kurds to push for federal system in post-Assad Syria

Updated 4 sec ago
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Kurds to push for federal system in post-Assad Syria

QAMISHLI: Syrian Kurds are set to demand a federal system in post-Assad Syria that would allow regional autonomy and security forces, a senior Kurdish official told Reuters, doubling down on a decentralized vision opposed by the interim president. The demand for federal rule has gathered momentum as alarm spread through Syria’s minorities over last month’s mass killings of Alawites, while Kurdish groups have accused interim President Ahmed Al-Sharaa and his Islamist group of setting the wrong course for the new Syria and monopolising power.
Rival Syrian Kurdish parties, including the dominant faction in the Kurdish-run northeast, agreed on a common political vision — including federalism — last month, Kurdish sources said. They have yet to officially unveil it. Kurdish-led groups took control of roughly a quarter of Syrian territory during the 14-year civil war. The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, backed by the US, last month signed a deal with Damascus on merging Kurdish-led governing bodies and security forces with the central government.
While committed to that deal, Kurdish officials have objected to the way Syria’s governing Islamists are shaping the transition from Bashar Assad’s rule, saying they are failing to respect Syria’s diversity despite promises of inclusivity.
Badran Jia Kurd, a senior official in the Kurdish-led administration, told Reuters that all Kurdish factions had agreed on a “common political vision” which emphasizes the need for “a federal, pluralistic, democratic parliamentary system.”
His written statements in response to questions from Reuters mark the first time an official from the Kurdish-led administration has confirmed the federalism goal since the Kurdish parties agreed on it last month.
The Kurdish-led administration has for years steered clear of the word “federalism” in describing its goals, instead calling for decentralization. Syria’s Kurds say their goal is autonomy within Syria — not independence.
Sharaa has declared his opposition to a federal system, telling The Economist in January that it does not have popular acceptance and is not in Syria’s best interests.
The Kurds, mainly Sunni Muslims, speak a language related to Farsi and live mostly in a mountainous region straddling the borders of Armenia, Iraq, Iran, Syria and Turkiye. In Iraq, they have their own parliament, government and security forces.
Jia Kurd said the fundamental issue for Syria was “to preserve the administrative, political, and cultural specificity of each region” which would require “local legislative councils within the region, executive bodies to manage the region’s affairs, and internal security forces affiliated with them.”
This should be set out in Syria’s constitutional framework, he added.
Neighbouring Turkiye, an ally of Sharaa, sees Syria’s main Kurdish group, the Democratic Union Party, and its affiliates as a security threat because of their links to the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which, until a recently declared ceasefire, fought a decades-long insurgency against the Turkish state.
Last month’s meeting brought the PYD together with the Kurdish National Council (ENKS), a rival Syrian Kurdish group established with backing from one of Iraq’s main Kurdish parties, the Kurdish Democratic Party (KDP) led by the Barzani family. The KDP has good ties with Turkiye.
ENKS leader Suleiman Oso said he expected the joint Kurdish vision to be announced at a conference by the end of April. He said developments in Syria since Assad’s ouster in December had led many Syrians to see the federal system as the “optimal solution.” He cited attacks on Alawites, resistance to central rule within the Druze minority, and the new government’s constitutional declaration, which the Kurdish-led administration said was at odds with Syria’s diversity.
Hundreds of Alawites were killed in western Syria in March in revenge attacks which began after Islamist-led authorities said their security forces came under attack by militants loyal to Assad, an Alawite. Sharaa, an Al-Qaeda leader before he cut ties to the group in 2016, has said those responsible will be punished, including his own allies if necessary. The constitutional declaration gave him broad powers, enshrined Islamic law as the main source of legislation, and declared Arabic as Syria’s official language, with no mention of Kurdish.
“We believe that the optimal solution to preserve Syria’s unity is a federal system, as Syria is a country of multiple ethnicities, religions, and sects,” said Oso.
“When we go to Damascus, we will certainly present our views and demands.”

UAE and India strengthen ties with 8 new cooperation agreements

Updated 4 min 25 sec ago
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UAE and India strengthen ties with 8 new cooperation agreements

MUMBAI: The UAE and India signed eight Memorandums of Understanding on Thursday across a broad range of sectors including infrastructure, healthcare, higher education, logistics and maritime services.

Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed bin Rashid Al-Maktoum, Dubai’s crown prince and UAE defense minister, and Indian Minister of Commerce and Industry Piyush Goyal witnessed the signing at an event organized by Dubai Chambers in Mumbai.

Sheikh Hamdan, who is on his first official visit to India, said the two nations were “bound by a deep-rooted friendship and a shared dedication to shaping the future through innovation, opportunity, and sustainable growth.”

He added they “continue to build on a strong foundation of trust and collaboration,” guided by the vision of UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan, UAE Vice President and Prime Minister and Dubai ruler Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al-Maktoum, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India.

“These MoUs broaden and deepen our strategic partnership in line with our mutual commitment to creating resilient economies, empowering communities, and advancing knowledge, technology and human development. Together, we are advancing a model of international cooperation that delivers real impact and long-term benefits for the people of our two countries,” said Sheikh Hamdan.

Dubai Chambers signed three MoUs with leading Indian business bodies — the Confederation of Indian Industry, the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry, and the Indian Merchants’ Chamber — to support mutual market expansion, facilitate networking and promote participation in trade missions and exhibitions.

The agreements aim to boost information-sharing and enhance bilateral trade.

DP World signed two MoUs — one with Rail India Technical and Economic Service to develop advanced, tech-enabled supply chains and multimodal logistics infrastructure through the UAE-India Virtual Trade Corridor, and another between Drydocks World and Cochin Shipyard to jointly develop ship repair clusters in Kochi and Vadinar.

In the education sector, Dubai’s Department of Economy and Tourism signed an MoU with the Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad to establish a new campus in Dubai. The facility will initially open in Dubai International Academic City, with plans for a permanent campus by 2029.

Healthcare collaboration was also a major focus. Dubai Health and key business figures from both countries signed an MoU to establish the UAE-India Friendship Hospital in Dubai, a philanthropic project offering inclusive healthcare services.

Additionally, Dubai Medical University and the All India Institute of Medical Science signed a cooperation agreement to facilitate joint research, academic exchange and collaboration in digital health and artificial intelligence applications in medicine.

Sheikh Hamdan said the continued growth in trade, investment and cooperation between the UAE and India highlighted the “strategic depth of the relationship” and the “vast potential” of their collaboration.

He added: “We look forward to accelerating progress in sectors that matter most for our collective future, building on the strong momentum we have achieved through frameworks like the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement and the Bilateral Investment Treaty.”


UAE mediates prisoner exchange between US and Russia in Abu Dhabi

Updated 25 min 23 sec ago
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UAE mediates prisoner exchange between US and Russia in Abu Dhabi

  • UAE’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs facilitated the exchange of one Russian citizen for one US citizen
  • It is the second swap since President Donald Trump returned to office as Moscow and Washington push for closer ties

LONDON: The UAE mediated a prisoner exchange between Russia and the US on Thursday, which took place on its soil in Abu Dhabi.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs facilitated the exchange of one Russian citizen for one US citizen, with representatives from both countries present in Abu Dhabi.
The ministry expressed appreciation for the confidence placed in the UAE by the American and Russian governments in designating Abu Dhabi as the location for the prisoner exchange process, WAM reported.
It added that “choosing Abu Dhabi for the prisoner exchange process reflects the close friendship ties of both countries with the UAE.”
Abu Dhabi hopes these efforts will de-escalate tensions and enhance dialogue, contributing to regional and international security and stability, WAM added.
It is the second swap since President Donald Trump returned to the White House as Russia and the US push for closer ties.
Moscow released US-Russian ballet dancer Ksenia Karelina, who had been sentenced to 12 years in prison on treason charges, with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirming early Thursday she was on a plane to the United States.
In exchange, the United States released Arthur Petrov, a Russian-German citizen who had been facing up to 20 years in a US prison for violating export controls and who was arrested in Cyprus in 2023 at Washington’s request for allegedly exporting sensitive microelectronics.
Abu Dhabi airport
CIA Director John Ratcliffe was present at the Abu Dhabi airport, where the exchange took place on Thursday, the AFP reported.
A CIA spokeswoman told the Wall Street Journal that “the exchange shows the importance of keeping lines of communication open with Russia, despite the deep challenges in our bilateral relationship.”
“While we are disappointed that other Americans remain wrongfully detained in Russia, we see this exchange as a positive step and will continue to work for their release,” she said.
Russia has yet to confirm the swap, which would be the second since Trump returned to the White House in January.
Trump and Russian leader Vladimir Putin have since pushed for a restoration of closer ties between the two countries that were severely damaged by Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.
Several meetings between the two sides have taken place, with a new round of talks beginning Thursday in Istanbul on restoring some of the embassy operations that were scaled back following the Ukraine invasion.
Who are the prisoners?
Karelina, who was born in 1991 and lived in Los Angeles, was serving a 12-year prison sentence for having donated around $50 to a pro-Ukraine charity.
She was arrested in the Urals city of Yekaterinburg in January 2024 while on a trip to visit her family. She was charged with “treason.”
Russia’s Federal Security Service accused her of collecting funds for Ukraine’s army that were used to purchase “equipment, weapons and ammunition” — charges she denied. Her supporters say she donated to a US-based organization that delivers humanitarian aid to Ukraine.
Petrov was accused by US authorities of illegally exporting electronic components to Russia for military use, in violation of Washington’s sanctions against Moscow over the conflict in Ukraine.
In mid-February, following a call between Putin and Trump, Russia released Kalob Wayne Byers, a 28-year-old US citizen who was arrested at a Moscow airport for transporting cannabis treats.
Washington and Moscow also exchanged US teacher Marc Fogel for Russian computer expert Alexander Vinnik in early February.
The largest US-Russia prisoner exchange since the end of the Cold War took place on August 1, 2024. It involved the release of journalists, including WSJ reporter Evan Gershkovich, and dissidents held in Russia in exchange for alleged Russian spies held in the West.
Several US citizens remain incarcerated in Russia, with Washington denouncing “hostage-taking” to obtain the release of Russians — including alleged spies — imprisoned in the West.

*Additional reporting from AFP


Red Cross concerned by drone attacks on critical infrastructure in Sudan

Updated 10 April 2025
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Red Cross concerned by drone attacks on critical infrastructure in Sudan

  • Some 70 percent to 80 percent of hospitals in Sudan were not running and there were concerns cholera could surge

GENEVA: The Red Cross raised alarm on Thursday at the growing use of drone attacks by warring parties on hospitals, electricity and water infrastructure in Sudan, which it said was contributing to widespread human rights violations.
Some 70 percent to 80 percent of hospitals in Sudan were not running and there were concerns cholera could surge due to damage caused by the war to water infrastructure, the International Committee of the Red Cross told reporters in Geneva.
“A recent drone attack stopped all the electricity provision in an area close to Khartoum, which means critical infrastructure is being damaged,” said Patrick Youssef, the Red Cross’s Regional Director for Africa, in a new report.
“There is a clear increased use of these technologies, drones – to be in the hands of everyone – which increases the impact on the local population and the intensity of attacks,” Youssef said.
After two years of fighting between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, some people are returning to Khartoum after they were forced to flee when war broke out on April 15, 2023 amidst an ongoing power struggle between the army and the RSF ahead of a transition to civilian rule.
Some 12 million people have been displaced by the conflict since 2023.
“We have seen violations of the law left, right and center,” Youssef said, urging the warring parties to allow the Red Cross access so it can offer humanitarian support and document atrocities.
In March, aid groups said that the RSF had placed new constraints on aid deliveries to territories where it was seeking to cement its control. Aid groups have also accused the army of denying or hindering access to RSF-controlled areas.
Both sides in the conflict deny impeding aid.


Israeli minister says France plan to recognize Palestinian state ‘prize for terror’

Updated 10 April 2025
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Israeli minister says France plan to recognize Palestinian state ‘prize for terror’

  • France plans to recognize a Palestinian state within months and could make the move at a UN conference in New York in June on settling the Israel-Palestinian conflic

JERUSALEM: Israel’s Foreign Minister Gideon Saar denounced French President Emmanuel Macron’s announcement that Paris could recognize a Palestinian state by June, saying it would be a “prize” for terrorism.
“A unilateral recognition of a fictional Palestinian state, by any country, in the reality that we all know, will be a prize for terror and a boost for Hamas,” Saar said on X late on Wednesday. “These kind of actions will not bring peace, security and stability in our region closer — but the opposite: they only push them further away.”

France plans to recognize a Palestinian state within months and could make the move at a UN conference in New York in June on settling the Israel-Palestinian conflict, President Emmanuel Macron said Wednesday.
“We must move toward recognition, and we will do so in the coming months,” Macron, who this week visited Egypt, told France 5 television.
France has long championed a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestinian conflict, including after the October 7, 2023 attack by Palestinian militants Hamas on Israel.
But formal recognition by Paris of a Palestinian state would mark a major policy switch and risk antagonizing Israel which insists such moves by foreign states are premature.
In Egypt, Macron held summit talks with President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi and Jordan’s King Abdullah II.