India-Pakistan deadlock and Delhi’s strategy of dismissal

Pakistan formally invited Prime Minister Narendra Modi to participate in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s (SCO) summit that Islamabad will host between October 15-16 this year. Though New Delhi’s formal response is awaited, informal signalling indicates that Modi will not participate in the forthcoming summit. Modi’s absence from the summit will repeal the opportunity to lower temperatures between the two nuclear-armed rivals.

India is a member of the SCO but has lost interest in the organization due to its evolving threshold alliance with the United States and its escalating tensions with China along the Line of Actual Control. India is also concerned about China’s growing influence in the organization. Besides, its Western allies are alarmed about the organization’s expansion, especially after Iran and Belarus joined it as permanent members.

However, due to Modi’s attendance and speculations in the Indian media last week, the Indian Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) issued an advisory to its domestic media. It stated, “We are noticing that several outlets are running news that PM won’t attend a SCO meeting in Pakistan or External Affairs Minister will attend a SCO meeting in Pakistan. Please note, the MEA hasn’t commented on this matter and would request speculative news in this regard be avoided.”

On numerous occasions, Pakistan beckoned to restore at least a minimum of exchanges and cooperation in a mutually acceptable manner. India, on the contrary, repeated the ‘terrorism mantra,’ referring to its concerns about Pakistan’s alleged support for terrorist activities in India, and refused to restore the dialogue process with Pakistan. In May 2023, then-foreign minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari visited India to attend the two-day meeting of the SCO Council of Foreign Ministers. During the meeting, he and his Indian counterpart levelled serious allegations against each other during their speeches.

India hosted the SCO Council of Heads of State virtual meeting on July 4, 2023. Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif participated in the conference despite India’s hostile conduct. It testifies to Islamabad’s willingness to engage New Delhi, despite the strained bilateral relationship between India and Pakistan since the post-Pulwama military deployment and termination of Article 370 of the Indian constitution in 2019, which granted limited autonomy to Kashmiris under the Indian Union on August 5, 2019. New Delhi also struck down Article 35A, which prohibited the purchase of property by people from outside the disputed territory, to change the region’s demography.

Modi is not prepared to discontinue his ‘Neighborhood First minus Pakistan’ policy, and for the foreseeable future, the deadlock between Islamabad and Delhi will continue.

Zafar Nawaz Jaspal

In Kashmir, the escalating casualties of India’s military personnel have frustrated the Modi government. New Delhi announced the holding of state assembly elections between September 18 and October 1. The violence will be multiplied during the following weeks. Despite knowing the root cause of the increasing violence, Prime Minister Modi and his cabinet members accuse Pakistan of sponsoring terrorism in Indian-administered Kashmir. Restarting a dialogue with Pakistan to end the deadlock will undermine Modi’s own state terrorism against Kashmiris and compromise his mantra of ‘terrorism emanating from Pakistan.’

India has adopted a dismissal approach toward Pakistan, which is a strategy to generate the impression that it does not assign any significance to its Western neighbor. Last week, Minister for External Affairs S. Jaishanker said that India is content with the relationship continuing, i.e., deadlock. He added, “I think the era of uninterrupted dialogue with Pakistan is over. Actions have consequences, and insofar as Jammu and Kashmir are concerned, I think Article 370 is done.” He referred to the sustainable dialogue between India and Pakistan from 2004 to 2008. Distancing itself from bilateral engagements and taking unilateral actions in Indian-administered Kashmir cannot and will not change reality.

The Kashmir dispute will continue to haunt India until its just resolution by UNSC resolutions. On September 1, Pakistan reiterated that “the Jammu and Kashmir dispute is an internationally recognized dispute that must be resolved in accordance with the United Nations Security Council resolutions and the wishes of the Kashmiri people.” Thus, Islamabad is unwilling to appease New Delhi on the Kashmir issue to restart the dialogue process.

The Indian ruling elite asserts that it faces a significant threat from China, and its military buildup is aimed to deter China. Its armed forces deployment and military leadership focus remains heavily concentrated along the border with Pakistan. For example, enacting the 2023 Inter-Services Organization Bill reveals India’s plan to establish three ITCs by 2025. The first ITC will be headquartered in Jaipur, Rajasthan, along the Pakistan frontier.

Relations between Pakistan and India have always been bumpy. However, they have declined immensely since Modi seized power in 2014. Currently, Modi is not prepared to discontinue his ‘Neighborhood First minus Pakistan’ policy, and for the foreseeable future, the deadlock between Islamabad and Delhi will continue.

- Dr. Zafar Nawaz Jaspal is an Islamabad-based analyst and professor at the School of Politics and International Relations, Quaid-i-Azam University. E-mail: [email protected] Twitter: @zafar_jaspal