Oil Updates – APPEC-Traders see prices at $60-70/bbl on oversupply, China demand risks
Updated 09 September 2024
Reuters
SINGAPORE: Global commodity traders Gunvor and Trafigura anticipate oil prices may range between $60 and $70 per barrel due to sluggish demand from China and persistent global oversupply, executives told a conference on Monday.
Oil prices have been under pressure due to concerns about waning demand in key economies China and the US — despite earlier expectations of summer demand being supportive — dipping after touching over $90 a barrel earlier this year.
Market relief came after OPEC and its allies, the group known as OPEC+, agreed last week to delay a planned oil output increase for October and November. However, commodity traders warn this relief may be short-lived.
“The market got a little bit of sugar candy for two months, but really very little,” Ben Luckock, global head of oil at Trafigura, told the Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference, adding that oil prices may fall “into the $60s sometime relatively soon.”
He added: “The market wants to know ... that OPEC is not going to bring those barrels back or at best is going to bring it back much slower and on a deferred basis.”
Oil’s fair value is $70 per barrel as there is more oil currently produced globally than consumed and the balance is set only to worsen over the next few years, said Torbjorn Tornqvist, co-founder and chairman of energy trader Gunvor.
“The problem is not in OPEC, because they’ve done a great job to manage this,” Tornqvist said. “But the problem is that they don’t control where the growth is right now outside OPEC, and that’s substantial.”
Oil futures jumped by a dollar in early Monday trade as a potential hurricane system approached the US Gulf Coast. Later, West Texas Intermediate crude futures traded around 70 cents higher at $68.38 a barrel and Brent crude futures at $71.75 a barrel, by 9:28 a.m. Saudi time.
Oversupply, soft China demand
The International Energy Agency expects oil supply growth this year to reach 770,000 barrels per day, boosting total supply to a record 103 million bpd.
That growth is set to more than double next year to reach 1.8 million bpd, with the US, Canada, Guyana and Brazil leading gains.
“Growth is slowing in the US but not coming to a halt and still significant, which presents another challenge for OPEC+ decision-making,” Jim Burkhard, vice president of research at S&P Global Commodity Insights, told the APPEC conference.
Burkhard sees OPEC+ increasing oil supply next year for the first time since 2022 and even if the group decides not to do so, spare oil production capacity globally, including over 5 million bpd in the Middle East, is set to pressure prices.
“The cycle of oil supply surplus continues. It will come to an end, but that will be in 2026 or beyond,” he said.
Soft demand in China, the world’s second-biggest economy, is also worrying markets, Trafigura’s Luckock said, adding that some market players believe Beijing may have more economic stimulus in reserve depending on the outcome of the US presidential elections in November.
“There are plenty of examples of what the Chinese central government is doing to help the economy at the moment, but none of it is this big bang headline that sometimes the market wants,” Luckock said.
Startup Wrap – MENA startup ecosystem flourishes as year comes to an end
Updated 14 sec ago
Nour El-Shaeri
RIYADH: Startups across the Middle East and North Africa region are gaining momentum, with funding rounds and expansions fueling innovation.
From artificial intelligence to fintech, health tech to media, these developments highlight the region’s growing ecosystem and investor confidence.
Aiming to boost the regional space, Saudi Venture Capital Co. has announced its investment in the $150-million Middle East Venture Fund IV, managed by Middle East Venture Partners. The fund targets technology startups with high growth potential across Saudi Arabia.
It aims to support startups from the seed stage through series A, series B, and eventual initial public offerings or exits, fostering the creation of regional tech champions. It also seeks to contribute to Saudi Arabia’s economic transformation by backing startups that impact key sectors.
“Our investment in the Middle East Venture Fund IV by MEVP supports SVC’s strategy of backing funds that invest in early-stage startups based in Saudi Arabia, aiming to foster their growth into later stages,” said Nabeel Koshak, CEO and board member at SVC.
Furthermore, SVC announced an investment for an undisclosed amount in Raed III LP, an early-stage venture capital fund managed by Raed Ventures.
The fund will target tech-enabled startups across Saudi Arabia and the wider region, primarily focusing on seed and series A stages, emphasizing fintech, enterprise software, and business-to-business Software-as-a-Services sector, predominantly in Saudi Arabia and UAE markets.
Risk intelligence platform Bureau closes $30m funding round to expand to Saudi Arabia
US-based risk intelligence and fraud detection startup Bureau completed a $30 million series B funding round to fuel its plans to expand in the Saudi market.
The round was led by Sorenson Capital with participation from PayPal Ventures and continued support from Commerce Ventures, GMO Venture Partners, Village Global, Quona Capital, and XYZ Ventures.
Bureau is a no-code identity decisioning platform that empowers businesses to prevent fraud, ensure compliance, and enhance user experiences.
The funding will accelerate Bureau’s product expansion into new use-cases, and geographical expansion to several new markets worldwide, including Saudi Arabia, to meet a significant surge in global demand.
OmniOps secures $8m to expand AI infrastructure solutions
Saudi-based OmniOps, an AI infrastructure technology provider, has raised $8 million in funding from GMS Capital Ventures.
The company, founded this year by Mohammed Al-Tassan, specializes in cloud and high-performance computing solutions for businesses of all sizes.
The investment will allow OmniOps to enhance research and development, scale operations, and advance AI infrastructure capabilities across Saudi Arabia. The company aims to deliver scalable, efficient solutions to meet the growing needs of regional industries.
This funding positions OmniOps to play a key role in Saudi Arabia’s digital transformation efforts, contributing to the development of advanced technological ecosystems.
Halo AI launches to connect brands with influencers
Saudi Arabia-based Halo AI has launched its services. Founded this year by Vito Strokov, Rami Saad, and Alex Gadalin, the AI-powered networking platform connects brands with nano- and micro-influencers who excel in specific niches.
The platform uses AI to streamline influencer marketing, offering brands access to highly targeted audiences with authentic engagement. Halo AI aims to support regional businesses in amplifying their reach through innovative marketing strategies.
Following its launch, Halo AI plans to expand its operations to the UAE and Kuwait, further solidifying its presence in the Gulf Cooperation Council market.
CredibleX raises $55m in seed round to support SMEs
UAE-based fintech startup CredibleX has secured $55 million in seed funding, comprising equity and debt.
Investors include Further Ventures for equity and debt providers such as Kilgour Williams Capital and Berkley Square Finance.
Founded in 2023 by Ahmad Malik, Anand Nagaraj, and Hassan Reda, CredibleX provides tailored financial solutions to support small and medium-sized enterprises in their daily operations. The startup aims to address the unique financial needs of SMEs in the region.
The new funds will accelerate CredibleX’s growth, expand its services, and strengthen its position as a leading fintech solution for SMEs in the Middle East.
Revibe secures $7 million Series A for refurbished electronics
UAE-based refurbished electronics marketplace Revibe has closed a $7 million series A funding round co-led by ISAI and Resonance, with participation from Kima Ventures and Edouard Mendy.
Founded in 2022 by Abdessamad Benzakour and Hamza Iraqui, Revibe specializes in providing high-quality, refurbished electronics through its B2C marketplace.
The startup has gained traction in emerging markets with its focus on affordability and sustainability and presence in Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, and South Africa.
The funds will be used to expand Revibe’s operations, enhance customer care, and invest in quality assurance as it continues to grow its market presence.
Klickl raises $25m series A to expand Web3 banking
UAE-based Web3 banking startup Klickl has raised $25 million in a Series A round led by Web3Port Foundation and Aptos Labs, with participation from Summer Ventures and others. The round values the company at $125 million.
Founded in 2017 by Michael Zhao, Klickl offers a Web3 open finance platform, enabling digital payments, banking, and crypto trading.
Its solutions are designed to facilitate seamless entry into the Web3 ecosystem for users and businesses alike.
The funding will allow Klickl to expand its Web3 banking services in MENA and emerging markets.
Quantix secures $500m asset-backed financing for lending
UAE-based fintech Quantix Technology Projects LLC, a subsidiary of Astra Tech, has raised $500 million in asset-backed securitization financing from Citi. Quantix will use the funding to support its CashNow consumer lending platform.
Founded in 2019, Astra Tech’s Ultra app integrates payments, cross-border transfers, and financing solutions, serving over 150 million users globally. Astra Tech aims to create a super app with capabilities such as digital payments and messaging.
This financing builds on Astra Tech’s previous funding success, including $490 million raised in 2022, enabling the acquisition of fintech PayBy and voice-calling app Botim.
BioSapien raises $5.5m to advance healthtech innovation
UAE-based healthtech BioSapien has raised $5.5 million in a pre-Series A funding round led by Global Ventures with participation from Dara Holdings. The funds will support clinical trials and product development.
Founded in 2018 by Khatija Ali, BioSapien offers MediChip, a 3D-printed drug delivery platform. The technology is attachable to tissues for localized treatment.
The new capital will enable patient enrollment for clinical trials in Abu Dhabi by the second quarter of 2025 and further investment in manufacturing capabilities and talent acquisition.
InvoiceQ raises $1.2 million pre-Series A to expand in GCC
Jordan-headquartered SaaS provider InvoiceQ has secured $1.2 million in pre-Series A funding from investors including Oasis 500, Orange VC, and Flat6Labs.
The company provides e-invoicing solutions and operates in Jordan and Saudi Arabia.
Co-founded in 2020 by Muhannad Tobal and others, InvoiceQ aims to streamline billing processes for enterprises while improving compliance with local regulations. The startup has been expanding its reach across the region.
The new funds will support geographic expansion into Oman, Egypt, and the UAE, as well as further development of its technology platform.
Anghami secures $55m with OSN Group taking majority stake
Lebanon-born music streaming app Anghami has raised $55 million, with $12 million coming as part of a convertible note program from OSN Group. OSN+ now holds a 55.45 percent majority stake in Anghami.
Founded in 2011 by Eddy Maroun and Elie Habib, Anghami merged with OSN+ earlier this year to create a larger media conglomerate. The company plans to use the funds to expand its content library.
The investment follows MBC Group’s acquisition of a 13.7 percent stake in Anghami earlier this year, as the streaming platform continues to strengthen its position in the media industry.
Unipal expands user base with pre-series A funding
Bahrain-born education tech startup Unipal has raised a pre-Series A investment round from Falak Angels Syndicate members.
The platform offers university students exclusive discounts on products and services.
Founded in 2020 by Ali Al-Alawi and Ali Al-Shaer, Unipal claims 160,000 users in Riyadh and 250 brand partnerships after just eight months of operation in the Saudi capital. The platform also boasts 60,000 users in Bahrain.
This investment follows a $500,000 round raised in July 2023, as Unipal continues its rapid regional growth and expansion.
ZSystems raises $1.5m to modernize traditional trade
Morocco-based marketplace ZSystems has secured $1.5 million in seed funding, led by MNF Ventures, Witamax, Cash Plus Ventures, and Kalys Ventures.
The platform empowers retailers by connecting them directly with consumers.
Founded in 2022 by Meriem Benabad and others, ZSystems focuses on revitalizing traditional trade, which accounts for 85 percent of the fast-moving consumer goods market. The company aims to drive competitiveness in underserved markets.
The funds will support ZSystems’ technology development, product expansion, and preparations for its next growth phase.
Oman Investment Authority invests in Elon Musk’s AI venture xAI
The Oman Investment Authority has acquired an undisclosed stake in xAI, Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence startup. This investment aligns with OIA’s strategy to diversify its international portfolio and support emerging technologies.
Founded in July 2023, xAI focuses on generative AI solutions, competing with leading players like OpenAI.
Earlier this month, xAI raised $6 billion in a series B round, attracting investments from Qatar Investment Authority, Kingdom Holding, and global firms like Andreessen Horowitz, bringing its valuation to $50 billion.
OIA’s latest investment in xAI complements its existing stake in SpaceX, Musk’s aerospace company.
This move reinforces the Gulf’s growing interest in cutting-edge technologies and the AI sector.
Iraq Venture Partners receives $2.7m for Iraqi entrepreneurs
Iraq Venture Partners has received $2.7 million from the Netherlands for the Orange Corners Innovation Fund. The funding will support the second phase of the initiative.
OCIF provides Iraqi entrepreneurs with technical expertise, financial backing, and access to extensive networks.
Harnessing the Sun: Saudi Arabia’s solar revolution
Updated 9 min 10 sec ago
Reem Walid
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia is a world leader when it comes to extracting energy sources from the ground, but it is the Kingdom’s drive to harness a power supply in the sky that is attracting attention.
Favorable government policies, a shift to meeting energy demands through renewable power, and a reduced dependence on fossil fuels are all factors pushing forward the Kingdom’s solar industry.
The ambitious target of Saudi Arabia’s National Renewable Energy Program sees the Kingdom aiming for a solar energy capacity of 40 gigawatts by 2030, promising significant opportunities for the market in the years to come.
According to market research firm Mordor Intelligence, the Kingdom’s solar market is projected to achieve a compound annual growth rate of 51 percent between 2024 and 2029 as a host of facilities come online.
However, challenges lie ahead with the rise of alternative clean energy sources like wind and the continued availability of fossil fuels potentially hindering solar energy market growth.
Solar technologies deployed in Saudi Arabia to maximize energy efficiency
According to Christopher Decker, partner in energy and natural resources at Oliver Wyman, India, Middle East and Africa, Saudi Arabia is at the forefront of innovative solar technologies aimed at maximizing energy efficiency and sustainability in the region.
“One notable advancement is the Dumat Al-Jandal Concentrated Solar Power plant, which harnesses solar energy to heat liquid for thermal energy storage, enabling energy availability even when sunlight is not present,” he said.
“Additionally, the Sakaka Solar Plant employs bifacial solar panels that take advantage of the reflectivity of the surrounding sand, significantly enhancing solar efficiency. To maintain optimal performance, projects like the Noor Energy 1 plant in NEOM have implemented waterless robotic cleaning technologies, which not only ensure high efficiency but also reduce operational costs,” Decker added.
The Oliver Whyman official went on to note that the integration of smart grids and artificial intelligence technologies allows for the optimization of solar energy generation by predicting energy demand and forecasting weather patterns, thereby minimizing waste.
“Lastly, the NEOM Green Hydrogen initiative exemplifies the use of solar power to produce green hydrogen and subsequently green ammonia, showcasing a commitment to sustainable energy solutions. Together, these technologies position Saudi Arabia as a leader in solar innovation, driving the transition toward a more sustainable energy future,” Decker said.
Solar technologies globally have reached a high degree of maturity and the cost reductions are driven by the growing efficiency of solar cells as well as economies of scale.
According to Adnan Merhaba, partner and energy and utilities practice lead at Arthur D. Little Middle East, these incremental innovations have also made their way into Saudi Arabia and some developers have proposed additional developments, such as bifacial solar cells, that can further enhance yields.
“Saudi Arabia, a leader in water desalination technology, is also pioneering solar desalination to enhance sustainability. Furthermore, research institutes in KSA are investing in the next generation of higher efficiency solar cells such as tandem perovskite cells that can achieve a step change for efficiency gains,” Merhaba said.
The King Abdullah University of Science and Technology is a prime example of the growing solar industry in Saudi Arabia.
Stefaan De Wolf, professor material science and engineering. (Supplied)
According to Stefaan De Wolf, professor of material science and engineering at the Physical Science and Engineering Division in the university, the institution is pioneering research and development in emerging photovoltaic technologies aimed at maximizing energy efficiency and sustainability.
“One of the key innovations we are advancing is the combination of perovskite and silicon PV, which significantly enhances solar power efficiency beyond traditional technologies. This hybrid approach has the potential to achieve ultra-high efficiency solar cells for even harsh environmental conditions of Saudi Arabia – high temperatures and dust,” De Wolf said.
“Additionally, we are exploring the development of bifacial solar panels, which can generate electricity from both sides, further improving energy yield. These innovations are designed to help Saudi Arabia not only maximize its solar energy potential but also contribute to the global advancement of sustainable energy solutions,” the professor added.
From his side, Qiaoqiang Gan, professor of material science and engineering at the same division, shed light on the fact that industry players are actively seeking advanced thermal management technologies to reduce the operational temperatures of PV systems installed in the Kingdom.
“This challenge is pressing for Middle Eastern countries due to the region’s high temperatures. Addressing this issue requires more reliable materials and devices on a microscopic level, as well as advanced thermal management strategies on an operational level,” Gan said.
Qiaoqiang Gan, professor of material science and engineering. (Supplied)
Shihab Elborai, partner with Strategy& Middle East, noted that projects like the Sudair Solar PV exemplify Saudi Arabia’s commitment to cutting-edge technologies, incorporating bifacial panels and sun-tracking systems to maximize efficiency.
“Saudi Arabia is leveraging world-class innovations in solar energy to not only produce electricity but to create a sustainable model for the entire region,” Elborai said.
“Companies like Mirai Solar are also making strides with multifunctional solar panels that harness diffused sunlight while providing variable shading. These innovations demonstrate Saudi Arabia’s ability to leverage cutting-edge technologies to reduce its carbon footprint and position itself as a global leader in solar energy,” he added.
Solar sector contribution to the Kingdom’s economic diversification and energy goals
The growth of Saudi Arabia’s solar energy industry is vital for the nation’s economic diversification and is in line with the goals of Vision 2030. Through the enhancement of solar power infrastructure, Saudi Arabia is catalyzing the emergence of fresh sectors, enticing international investments, and cultivating a culture of innovation.
“This growth not only supports local manufacturing and supply chains but also generates employment opportunities and enhances human capital development, positioning the Kingdom as a regional leader in renewable energy,” Decker from Oliver Wyman said.
“In terms of energy security, solar power contributes to a resilient and diversified energy mix. By incorporating advanced solar technologies, energy storage, and smart grids, Saudi Arabia can enhance the flexibility and stability of its electricity grid,” he added.
The Oliver Wyman partner continued to highlight that solar-powered initiatives, like green hydrogen production, ensure that the Kingdom adds an additional stream of energy exportation, tapping into new revenue streams while promoting environmental sustainability.
“This strategic expansion strengthens Saudi Arabia’s energy capabilities for the future,” Decker concluded in that regard.
Christopher Decker, Partner in Energy and Natural Resources at Oliver Wyman, India, Middle East and Africa. (Supplied)
Demand for power is ever increasing in the Kingdom, largely driven by economic and population growth as well as giga-scale developments across the country.
“The wide deployment of solar projects can also prop up adjacent sectors such as battery storage, smart grid technologies and green hydrogen production. From an energy security perspective, burning less hydrocarbons for domestic use frees up more oil for export, enhancing revenues for investment in economic diversification and also supports the Kingdom achieve its sustainability goals,” he added.
On KAUST’s behalf, De Wolf explained that by investing in renewable energy, particularly solar power, the Kingdom is reducing its dependence on fossil fuels and building a more sustainable and resilient economy.
As for Gan, he indicated that given its geographical location, Saudi Arabia has an abundance of solar energy, surpassing that of many developed countries – an evident advantage in terms of available sunlight as an energy source.
“However, high temperatures present a significant challenge, leading to overheating in semiconductor solar cells. To effectively implement PV systems in Saudi Arabia, it is essential to develop specialized solutions that fully account for the unique local weather and environmental conditions. Such solutions must aim to maximize the utilization of abundant solar energy while mitigating the adverse impacts on PV performance,” the professor said.
He further noted that developing these specialized solutions will require further research and development, presenting both opportunities and challenges in advancing energy security goals.
Elborai from PwC noted that by shifting toward renewables, the Kingdom is securing a more stable and sustainable energy supply, which supports broader economic growth.
“The localization of renewable energy manufacturing is another critical component. Saudi Arabia is focusing on producing renewable energy components domestically, reducing import dependency and positioning itself as a hub for clean energy technologies. By localizing renewable energy production, Saudi Arabia is positioning itself as a hub for clean energy technology in the region, enhancing both economic growth and energy security,” he said.
“By 2030, Saudi Arabia aims to produce 1.2 million tonnes of green hydrogen annually, with solar energy powering the electrolysis process. This dual focus on solar and hydrogen is expected to drive further economic diversification and solidify the Kingdom’s leadership in green energy,” Elborai added.
Challenges encountered in the Kingdom’s solar industry
The deployment of solar energy in Saudi Arabia faces significant challenges, particularly around localizing the value chain and addressing environmental factors such as high temperatures and dust.
From Decker’s perspective, Saudi Arabia faces several challenges in scaling up its solar energy capacity, two of which are infrastructure limitations and regulatory complexities.
“To address these challenges, Saudi Arabia is investing in modernizing its grid infrastructure through smart grid technologies and energy storage solutions, enabling better management of intermittent solar power. The government is working on streamlined regulatory processes and introducing incentive schemes, such as public-private partnerships and favorable tariffs, to encourage private sector investment, but there is still much to do in this area,” he added.
From Arthur D. Little Middle East’s side, Merhaba said that in order to meet its highly ambitious objectives by 2030, the Kingdom will have to overcome technical challenges, global supply chain issues due to increasing demands for solar cells, and supply concentrated largely in China.
There are also concerns around the disruptions in global trade, the localization and human capital needed to ensure development of a robust and competitive solar value chain industry in the Kingdom, and adequate supply of engineers and technicians to meet the growing demand in the sector.
The country has strong strategies and policies, including national industrial and localization plans, along with other initiatives, that are poised to help them tackle these obstacles effectively.
Saudi Vision 2030 impact on strategies for transitioning toward renewable energy sources
By 2030, Saudi Arabia aims to produce approximately 58.7 GW of renewable energy, with solar energy contributing 40 GW to this total.
On behalf of Oliver Wyman, Decker explained that in terms of establishing a regulatory framework to facilitate the development of renewable energy, Vision 2030 outlines the need for a supportive environment.
This involves creating policies that incentivize private sector participation through Power Purchase Agreements that guarantee long-term revenue for investors, subsidies and tariff reforms to make renewable energy more competitive, and streamlined licensing processes to reduce bureaucratic hurdles for solar projects.
With regards to promoting private sector investment, Decker highlighted that the Saudi government is actively encouraging public-private partnerships and foreign direct investment to drive the growth of solar power projects.
“The National Renewable Energy Program, launched under Vision 2030, is a key initiative that seeks to attract $30-$50 billion in investments for renewable energy projects,” he said.
In terms of maintaining a strong traditional energy sector while investing in diversification, Decker added: “While Vision 2030 emphasizes the transition to renewable energy, it also acknowledges the importance of maintaining a robust traditional energy sector, particularly oil and gas, which remain critical to the Kingdom’s economy.”
This comes as Saudi Arabia aims to optimize its oil and gas production through technological advancements and efficiency improvements to ensure the sector continues to generate revenue.
On behalf of Arthur D. Little Middle East, Merhaba highlighted that the Kingdom has undergone a pivotal shift in its economic and energy landscape in recent years.
“It ushered in the era of renewables and accelerated the deployment of solar. With a highly ambitious target to achieve 50 percent renewable adoption by 2030, which are under consideration for an upward revision, it has not only led to development of mega solar projects at record low prices, but also to build momentum in developing national champions across the solar value chain,” he said.
KAUST representative De Wolf reiterated the fact that the Vision has created a favorable climate for investment and development, with ambitious renewable energy targets shaping the future of the Kingdom’s energy mix.
Similarly, Gan emphasized that the Vision 2030 has created fertile ground for solar energy development, with policies that incentivize public-private partnerships and invest heavily in renewable energy infrastructure.
“This initiative aims to diversify the Kingdom’s energy mix by transitioning toward cleaner, more sustainable energy sources,” he said.
From PwC’s side, Elborai explained that the National Renewable Energy Program is central to this.
“By 2060, Saudi Arabia aims to reach Net Zero status, supported by significant financial commitments, such as the planned $266 billion investment in cleaner energy sources, including solar,” he said.
“The Kingdom is actively developing projects with a capacity of 20 GW annually to meet its target of 100 GW to 130 GW of clean energy by 2030. This strategic framework also emphasizes localizing renewable energy manufacturing, with collaborations like the Public Investment Fund’s partnership with Chinese solar manufacturers to establish 30 GW of solar PV production capacity. The NREP is not just about generating clean energy — it’s about securing the Kingdom’s energy future and reducing its reliance on fossil fuels,” the PwC partner said.
Wake up and smell the climate crisis: coffee prices set to increase in 2025
Price rises come as the global coffee industry battled a perfect storm of challenges, with climate change, supply chain disruptions, and global market forces all having an impactThe price rises came as the global coffee industry battled a perfect stor
Updated 5 min 59 sec ago
MIGUEL HADCHITY
RIYADH: It is the caffeine, not the cost, of a morning coffee that is supposed to help you shake off any lingering sleepiness, but the world’s wake-up drink of choice is set to get more expensive in 2025.
December saw the cost of Arabica beans hit a record high on the global commodities market, while Robusta prices nearly doubled in 2024, reaching $5,694 a tonne by late November.
The price rises came as the global coffee industry battled a perfect storm of challenges, with climate change, supply chain disruptions, and global market forces all having an impact.
It is against this backdrop that Saudi Arabia is looking to expand its involvement in the sector, with the Middle East consuming more than its fair share of the product.
The International Coffee Organization estimated that 6.3 million 60-kg bags of coffee were drunk in the Middle East in the year 2022/23 – 3.6 percent of the world’s consumption.
“The region’s population is 196 million, or 2.6 percent of the world’s population. The region is consuming above its share,” the organization noted.
Dock No, statistical coordinator with the Secretariat of the ICO, highlighted that Saudi Arabia became the second country in the Middle East to become a member of the International Coffee Organization, when the country signed the International Coffee Agreement in February.
“The coffee sector in Saudi Arabia is growing fast and is an important part of our plans for the future and the change we wish to bring to our country as it contributes to diversifying the national economy,” No said.
The coffee organization highlighted the Saudi Coffee Co., a new venture launched by the Kingdom’s Public Investment Fund. With a $319 million investment over 10 years, the company aims to significantly expand Saudi Arabia’s coffee production from 300 tonnes annually to 2,500 tonnes.
This growth will be driven by a focus on sustainability throughout the coffee supply chain, from production to distribution and marketing.
“Varieties are a key tool for any agricultural system, and improved varieties will contribute to productive climate resilient coffee systems in Saudi Arabia, just like anywhere else,” CEO of World Coffee Research, Jennifer Vern Long emphasized in an interview with Arab News.
A global challenge
Andrew Hetzel, a coffee and high-value agriculture specialist, told Arab News that climate change, particularly prolonged droughts and unpredictable weather patterns, is directly affecting bean crops.
Brazil, which primarily produces arabica, and Vietnam, which is the largest robusta producer, are experiencing unseasonably dry weather, leading to lower yields and quality for the 2024/25 season.
The South American country is also the second-largest robusta producer, and has faced crop yield losses due to unusually dry weather in key growing regions. No also noted the country’s vulnerability to past extreme events like the frost of July 2021 that affected its crop.
Hetzel said: “Brazil is the most sophisticated agribusiness producer of coffee as a nation, but even they do not irrigate all of their fields.”
Long emphasized the urgency of increasing coffee productivity globally to meet growing demand.
She said: “Improving productivity doesn’t just ensure the supply of coffee can keep up with demand, it also decreases carbon emissions from coffee farming.”
Long further explained that current investments in coffee agricultural R&D, which stand at only $115 million per year, are far too low for a sector with such global significance.
Vern Long at the WCR Research Farm, Flor Amarilla, standing next to a promising new coffee variety. (World Coffee Research)
This surge in robusta prices is driven by a mix of climate-related challenges, geopolitical issues, and tightening supply chains.
In Vietnam production is expected to fall by 10 percent for the 2023/24 season, and the ICO’s No told Arab News that Vietnam’s local markets have reported domestic stocks running low.
Adding to these pressures is the disruption of key global trade routes. The Red Sea crisis has heavily impacted shipping, particularly for exports from Vietnam and Indonesia to Europe.
Roasters are now grappling with longer shipping times and higher costs due to rising insurance premiums and intense competition for container space.
As a result, robusta inventories are plummeting. By January 2024, certified robusta stocks had dropped to 0.48 million 60-kg bags, a sharp 15.4 percent decline on the previous month, according to a report by the ICO.
The ICO’s coordinator explained that coffee stocks in Europe have fallen by almost half since 2021, reducing from 15.5 million 60-kg bags to 8.7 million.
Hetzel said some coffee prices are still being impacted from the COVID-19 pandemic, pointing to its effects on transport costs. “The cost of ocean freight from Indonesia to North America quadrupled as exporters fought for empty containers and ship bookings. Container shortages persist today,” he said.
No added that shipping disruptions through the Suez and Panama canals in the past 12 months have only exacerbated these logistical issues, forcing coffee exporters to take longer routes, which added to the cost.
Though green coffee bean exports saw a 12.6 percent increase in December 2023 compared to the previous year, this short-term boost is unlikely to ease the growing strain on supply.
Innovation needed to address coffee’s sustainability crisis
A recent report by World Coffee Research set out how the sector faces an innovation crisis that requires urgent attention, particularly in the wake of climate change.
The organization’s CEO explained that a significant increase in global investment — around $452 million per year — is required over the next decade to meet rising demand while mitigating climate-related yield losses.
The report emphasized that climate change is reducing coffee origin diversity and endangering smallholder production. This, combined with rising demand, could further destabilize the industry if not addressed.
Hetzel also underscored the vulnerability of smallholder farmers, particularly in developing regions. “The vast majority of coffee production is in fragile states that are highly susceptible to climate change,” he said, adding that many smallholder farmers are likely to be severely impacted by economic losses, leading to food insecurity, conflict, and out-migration.
How climate change will continue to drive up prices
Compounding these issues is the broader impact of climate change. The recent declaration of an El Nino weather event by the US Climate Prediction Center is expected to bring more drought to Vietnam and excessive rains to Brazil, further threatening coffee production.
Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine has driven up fertilizer prices and energy costs, adding to the financial burden on coffee growers and roasters alike. As Hetzel noted: “The war in Ukraine has increased energy costs downstream from the farm – transportation, roasting, and distribution costs have all risen.”
No also highlighted the broader effects of inflation and rising input costs on coffee producers, particularly those in the Americas dealing with seasonal labor shortages.
According to the WCR report, increased global investment is essential to ensure the long-term viability of coffee producers. Long warned that without action, the industry will continue to experience supply constraints and rising prices.
For the global coffee industry, navigating this turbulent environment requires vigilance and greater investment in innovation. As supply constraints and climate events continue to unfold, traders, roasters, and consumers alike are bracing for what could be a prolonged period of high coffee prices.
Saudi Arabia emerging as global cybersecurity guardian: digital experts
Updated 20 December 2024
Nadin Hassan
RIYADH: From protecting its growing digital infrastructure to exporting cybersecurity technologies and expertise, Saudi Arabia is emerging as a key player in addressing global cyber threats.
The Kingdom has made significant strides in developing its technology infrastructure, a key pillar of its Vision 2030 initiative aimed at diversifying the economy beyond oil.
This digital transformation has been accompanied by a comprehensive approach to online safety – including the adoption of the National Cybersecurity Strategy, which focuses on creating a secure digital landscape that supports rapid technological advancements.
“The growth of Saudi Arabia’s tech infrastructure has substantially enhanced its cybersecurity capabilities,” Sohil Mohamed, director, cyber risk advisory lead at Alvarez & Marsal told Arab News.
He praised the National Cybersecurity Strategy, saying that it prioritizes resilience, secure digital landscapes, and trust.
This strategic approach ensures that Saudi Arabia’s technological growth is supported by adaptive risk management and dynamic defense mechanisms.
In addition to the government’s efforts, the private sector has also played a critical role in building a secure digital ecosystem.
The expanding cybersecurity market in Saudi Arabia
As one of the fastest-growing markets in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia’s cybersecurity sector is valued at approximately SR13.3 billion.
This rapidly expanding market offers substantial opportunities for public-private partnerships, particularly in developing advanced cybersecurity solutions and creating new business models for commercial involvement.
Additionally, the Saudi government’s focus on digital transformation and cybersecurity has opened new avenues for investment.
“Key areas of focus include the development of advanced cybersecurity solutions, engagement in public-private partnerships, and contributions to national initiatives such as the Cybersecurity Catalyst Program spearheaded by the National Cybersecurity Authority,” Mohamed said.
These initiatives are driving a collaborative effort between the public and private sectors to strengthen the Kingdom’s cyber resilience.
Saudi Arabia’s investment in the sector also positions it as a key player in the global cybersecurity market.
The government has partnered with international organizations and cybersecurity firms to enhance its capabilities and bolster the country’s readiness to handle large-scale cyber threats.
This proactive stance is evident in Saudi Arabia’s role as host of major events, such as the Global Cybersecurity Forum, which brings together industry leaders.
Sohil Mohamed, director, cyber risk advisory lead at Alvarez & Marsal. Supplied
Protecting national infrastructure – a key priority
Critical Information Infrastructure Protection has become a top priority for Saudi Arabia as it seeks to secure vital sectors, such as energy, finance, and transportation, from cyber threats.
The Kingdom has experienced several high-profile cyberattacks, most notably the Shamoon attack in 2012, which targeted Saudi Aramco, one of the world’s largest energy companies.
This incident underscored the importance of building robust cybersecurity measures to protect national assets.
Saudi corporations are increasingly focused on quantifying the economic impact of potential cyberattacks, particularly in industries that form the backbone of the national economy.
“Saudi corporations are progressively implementing sophisticated risk assessment tools and methodologies to quantify the economic impact of cyber threats,” Mohamed said.
He explained that this includes evaluating potential financial losses, operational disruptions, and reputational damage from cyber incidents.
Additionally, cyber insurance is becoming a critical tool for mitigating risks. This provides financial protection against potential cyberattacks and promotes the adoption of best practices across industries.
The growing reliance on cyber insurance reflects the increased awareness among Saudi businesses of the importance of proactive cybersecurity measures.
Exporting cybersecurity expertise and technology
Saudi Arabia’s progress in cybersecurity is not only benefitting the Kingdom but also positioning it as a global leader capable of exporting expertise and technologies.
The National Cybersecurity Authority has been instrumental in fostering international collaborations and creating platforms for knowledge sharing.
Initiatives such as the National Cybersecurity Academy provide advanced training to professionals, equipping them with the skills needed to address both domestic and international challenges.
Alvarez & Marsal’s Mohamed said: “By leveraging its robust cybersecurity frameworks and strategic partnerships, Saudi Arabia can offer tailored cybersecurity services and solutions to other regions. Initiatives such as the National Cybersecurity Academy by the NCA.”
This capacity for exporting cybersecurity solutions will allow Saudi Arabia to play a critical role in addressing global online threats.
Moreover, the Kingdom’s strategic location and status as a regional economic hub make it a key player in cybersecurity across the Middle East and North Africa region.
Saudi Arabia is increasingly seen as a model for other countries seeking to enhance their cybersecurity frameworks. Its experience in managing threats and building resilient digital infrastructure has positioned it as a leader in this space.
The Kingdom’s efforts to protect its critical infrastructure are seen not just as a defensive necessity but also as a key pillar in positioning the Kingdom as a leader in global cybersecurity. Vision 2030 has been a central driver of this transformation.
Events such as the Global Cybersecurity Forum have cemented Saudi Arabia’s leadership position. File
Samer Omar, cybersecurity and digital trust leader at PwC Middle East, highlighted to Arab News how the Kingdom’s digital growth has shaped its cybersecurity strategy.
“Saudi Arabia has achieved fourth place globally in the digital services index, first regionally, and second among G20 nations. The rapid advance in technology has increased the digital ecosystem in Saudi Arabia, which in turn has further increased its exposure to cyber-attacks,” Omar said.
He added: “In response, the Kingdom has successfully orchestrated a combination of regulations, investments, and awareness which has propelled most sectors to adopt a proactive security by design approach.”
This proactive approach allowed Saudi Arabia to secure the highest ranking possible in the UN Global Cybersecurity Index 2024, a reflection of the Kingdom’s investment in a secure digital future.
Omar pointed out that Vision 2030 has accelerated the investment in human capital to build critical national capability and aid nationals in attaining key cybersecurity skills and certifications.
He also emphasized the vital role Vision 2030 plays in safeguarding the Kingdom’s critical sectors, particularly energy, finance, and smart cities, which are integral to the nation’s economy.
“Saudi Arabia faces compelling challenges in these critical sectors due to the complex infrastructure, creating a potentially vulnerable and vast attack surface for adversaries,” Omar said.
Omar noted Saudi Arabia’s determination to not only secure its own digital landscape but also position itself as a cybersecurity leader on the global stage.
This leadership is exemplified by initiatives like the Global Cybersecurity Forum, which Omar describes as “a unique ecosystem and platform that is actively engaging with leading bodies such as the World Economic Forum,” thus shaping the future of cybersecurity well beyond the Kingdom.
Addressing the cybersecurity talent gap
Saudi Arabia has been proactively addressing the shortage of cybersecurity talent by heavily investing in capacity-building programs supported by both public and private sectors.
“There are an estimated 19,600 Saudi cybersecurity professionals with 32 percent of them being female,” Omar said.
He continued: “In addition, most major universities have cybersecurity education and training including Capture The Flag competitions, and all the major cybersecurity technology vendors provide training on their products and services.”
These efforts are integral to the country’s broader vision of strengthening its digital infrastructure under Vision 2030.
A secure future
According to Omar, the cybersecurity industry in Saudi Arabia is projected to experience significant growth in the coming years, driven by the Kingdom’s Vision 2030 initiative and robust regulatory frameworks.
“NCA released a report this year that estimates the size of the cybersecurity market to be SR13.3 billion with 31 percent of the spending from the public sector and the remaining 69 percent from the private sector,” he said.
Omar went on to say: “Some analysts estimate the cybersecurity CAGR to be between 11 percent to 13 percent.”
This is due to Vision 2030, which serves as a catalyst for developing the digital ecosystem, Omar explained, emphasizing the strategic role of the initiative in shaping the country’s cyber transformation.
KARACHI: Pakistan’s Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) has waived off customs and regulatory duties on imports from Azerbaijan under the Pakistan-Azerbaijan Preferential Trade Agreement, the finance ministry said in a notification this month.
During Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev’s two-day visit to Pakistan in July, both nations agreed to enhance the volume of bilateral trade to $2 billion, vowing to strengthen ties and increase cooperation in mutually beneficial economic projects. They also signed the Pakistan-Azerbaijan Preferential Trade Agreement to boost economic cooperation through the reduction of tariffs on goods like Pakistani sports equipment, leather, and pharmaceuticals as well as Azerbaijani oil and gas products.
“The federal government is pleased to exempt with effect from Dec. 16, 2024, the import into Pakistan from Azerbaijan of the goods specified,” the finance ministry said in a notification. adding that imports from Azerbaijan would be exempted from all kinds of tariffs including customs duty, additional customs duty and regulatory duty.
“Provided that where the rates of customs duty, additional customs duty, and regulatory duty [...] are higher than specified rates, the lower rates [...] shall apply,” it added.
The tariff concessions cover items including shelled hazelnuts or filberts, apricots, vegetable saps and extracts, non-stemmed tobacco, polyethylene, propylene copolymers, casing, tubing, drill pipes and refined copper wire with a maximum cross-sectional dimension exceeding 6 mm.
In recent weeks, there has been a flurry of visits, investment talks and economic activity between officials from Pakistan and the Central Asian nations as well as other transcontinental and landlocked countries like Azerbaijan as Islamabad seeks to consolidate the South Asian nation’s role as a pivotal trade and transit hub.
