Pakistan’s central bank expected to cut rates — survey

The logo of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) is pictured on a reception desk at the head office in Karachi, Pakistan July 16, 2019. (REUTERS/File)
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Updated 10 September 2024
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Pakistan’s central bank expected to cut rates — survey

  • Analysts unanimously predict rate cut
  • Estimates range from 100 bps to 200 bps

KARACHI: Pakistan’s central bank is expected to cut its key interest rate further during its policy meeting on Thursday, analysts said, after inflation dropped to single digits in August for the first time in nearly three years.

That would follow two consecutive cuts — of 150 basis points in June and 100 bps in July — that have taken rates from an all-time high of 22 percent to their current standing of 19.5 percent.

All 14 analysts polled expected another cut, two of them of 100 bps, 10 of 150 bps, and another two of 200 bps.

July’s reduction came after a staff level agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the introduction of a new state budget which set ambitiously high tax and revenue-raising targets for the government.

In August, central bank chief Jameel Ahmed told Reuters the recent interest rate cuts had had the “desired effect.”

In his first interview since assuming the role in 2022, he said inflation continued to slow and the current account remained under control, despite the cuts.

Pakistan’s annual consumer price inflation rate slowed to 9.6 percent in August, the first single-digit reading in almost three years.

Ahmed said the Monetary Policy Committee will review all these developments and that future rate decisions could not be pre-determined.

Ammar Habib, an economist who predicted a 200 bps cut in the poll, said real interest rates of 10 percent are at the highest level in the last three decades.

“Risks to inflation are also low given softening commodity prices and a fiscally prudent stance of the government for now. In view of this, it makes sense to do at least a 200-bps cut without hurting FX expectations too much,” Habib said.


Oil Updates – prices climb on US output concerns, potential crude inventory drop

Updated 8 sec ago
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Oil Updates – prices climb on US output concerns, potential crude inventory drop

SINGAPORE: Oil prices extended gains on Tuesday as the market eyed US output concerns in the aftermath of Hurricane Francine and expectations of lower US crude stockpiles.

Brent crude futures for November were up 36 cents, or 0.5 percent, at $73.11 a barrel, as of 9:35 a.m. Saudi time. US crude futures for October climbed 53 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $70.62 a barrel.

Both contracts settled higher in the previous session as the impact of Hurricane Francine on the output in the US Gulf of Mexico countered Chinese demand concerns ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut decision this week, which should prove positive for investor sentiment in oil.

More than 12 percent of crude production and 16 percent of natural gas output in the US Gulf of Mexico remained offline, according to the US Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement on Monday.

“Oil prices managed to recover slightly ... (An) extreme bearish state over the past weeks called for some near-term stabilization, with prices previously touching their lowest level since 2021,” said Yeap Jun Rong, market strategist at IG.

“But a weaker-than-expected run in China’s economic data lately could still be a source of caution, while the lead-up to the upcoming FOMC interest rate decision may limit some risk-taking,” Yeap added, referring to the Federal Open Market Committee.

The Fed is expected to start its easing cycle on Wednesday, with Fed funds futures showing markets are now pricing in a 69 percent chance the central bank will cut rates by 50 basis points.

“Growing expectations of an aggressive rate cut boosted sentiment across the commodities complex,” ANZ analysts said in a note, adding that supply disruptions also supported oil markets.

A lower interest rate will reduce the cost of borrowing and can potentially lift oil demand by supporting economic growth.

Investors also eyed an expected drop in US crude inventories, which likely fell by about 200,000 barrels in the week ended Sept. 13, based on a Reuters poll.

Still, lower-than-expected demand growth in China, the world’s largest crude importer, have capped price gains. China’s oil refinery output fell for a fifth month in August amid declining fuel demand and weak export margins, government data showed on Saturday.


Wizz Air expects 15-20% growth in passenger volume next year thanks to Mid East routes

Updated 18 min 45 sec ago
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Wizz Air expects 15-20% growth in passenger volume next year thanks to Mid East routes

ABU DHABI, Sept 16 : Wizz Air expects 15-20 percent growth in passenger volume next year, its CEO told Reuters, with new low-cost routes to the Middle East, such as from Europe to the UAE, adding an extra boost.

“Globally, we are expecting 15-20 percent (growth), but I think Abu Dhabi is going to grow beyond this,” Jozsef Varadi said.

Hungary-based Wizz Air, which carried a record 62 million passengers during the year ended in March 2024, set up operations in the UAE in 2019 as a joint venture with Abu Dhabi’s third biggest sovereign wealth fund ADQ.

In the Middle East, where concerns of a wider flare up of the war in Gaza have prompted international airlines to suspend flights or avoid air space, Wizz Air is monitoring every development, Varadi said.

He added that Wizz Air wants to develop Saudi Arabia as an inbound market rather than setting up a local carrier there.

The airline, which flies an all-Airbus fleet, last week announced it would deploy its first A321XLR, a single-aisle aircraft that will allow it to cover longer distances, to operate a route between London’s Gatwick airport and Saudi Arabia’s Jeddah starting from March 2025.

Another A321XLR aircraft will operate a daily flight between Milan Malpensa airport and Abu Dhabi starting from June next year.

“Certainly we are very excited about Jeddah,” Varadi said. “We are seeing that more European operations might be flown inbound to Saudi in the future.”

He said, however, that all new routes were subject to regulatory approvals and capacity constraints due to troubles with Pratt & Whitney engines, which forced

Wizz Air to ground part of its fleet, contributing to a 44 percent drop in first-quarter operating profit.

As the aviation sector struggles with delays from manufacturers Boeing and Airbus, European airlines have also faced a difficult first half of the year because of rising and softening demand after an initial post-pandemic boom.

Wizz Air’s London-listed shares dropped almost 42 percent over the last 12 months.

“I don’t think that the share price is reflective of the actual performance of the business,” said Varadi.

He said the market was over-reacting and Wizz Air was being “disproportionately affected” by factors such as geopolitics and problems with Pratt and Whitney’s engines.

Asked about fares, Varadi said summer data showed Wizz Air was not seeing as huge price declines as those that some rivals had flagged.


Ma’aden, Bahrain’s Alba to form global aluminum powerhouse with new deal

Updated 16 September 2024
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Ma’aden, Bahrain’s Alba to form global aluminum powerhouse with new deal

RIYADH: Saudi Arabian Mining Co., known as Ma’aden, has signed a non-binding agreement with Aluminium Bahrain B.S.C., or Alba, to potentially create a global aluminum producer.

The agreement, dated Sept. 16, outlines plans to merge Ma’aden’s aluminum operations with Alba’s, forming a force in the global aluminum market.

The deal aims to leverage over 75 years of combined operational and financial expertise to enhance their competitive edge on the global stage, according to a press release.

Under the terms of the agreement, Ma’aden will transfer the entire share capital of Ma’aden Aluminum Co. and Ma’aden Bauxite and Alumina Co. to Alba, including the rights to market and sell products from Ma’aden Aluminum Co.

In exchange, Ma’aden will acquire newly issued shares in Alba. The specifics regarding the number of shares and Ma’aden’s ownership stake in Alba will be determined at a later date, as noted in a bourse filing.

This announcement comes on the heels of a deal made just a day earlier, in which US industrial giant Alcoa Corp. agreed to sell its stakes in Ma’aden Aluminum Co. and Ma’aden Bauxite and Alumina Co. to Ma’aden.

In this transaction, Alcoa will receive $150 million in cash and newly issued shares representing approximately 2.21 percent of Ma’aden’s share capital after the deal is completed.

The agreement with Alba also includes the possibility of a cross-listing on the Saudi Stock Exchange, pending further negotiations. The deal is effective immediately and will remain valid until Dec. 31.

It aligns with Ma’aden’s growth and sustainability strategy, aiming to strengthen its presence in Saudi Arabia and the broader Middle East region.

“Harnessing the combined scale and expertise of both businesses to forge a new global champion will not only advance Ma’aden’s ambitions for aluminum but also significantly boost the economic ties between Bahrain and Saudi Arabia,” Ma’aden CEO Bob Wilt said.

“By bringing together two of the region’s most experienced players in the sector, we are setting the stage for stronger economic growth, enhanced job creation, and increased aluminum production capacity. This partnership will elevate our competitive edge on a global scale,” he added.

Echoing Wilt’s sentiments, Alba Chairman Khalid Al-Rumaihi said this partnership will cement the company’s position as the largest regional aluminum producer.

“Our partnership will not only deepen the strong ties between Bahrain and Saudi Arabia but also contribute to Bahrain’s economic diversification and job creation. This is a compelling proposition and an exciting moment for Alba, Ma’aden, and our respective stakeholders, and we look forward to sharing further updates in due course,” Al-Rumaihi said.

The financial impact of the transaction will be assessed following a comprehensive due diligence process.

Completion of the deal is not guaranteed and depends on the satisfactory conclusion of financial, tax, legal, technical, and commercial evaluations, as well as obtaining necessary regulatory and corporate approvals.

Ma’aden has engaged Merrill Lynch Kingdom of Saudi Arabia as its financial adviser and AS&H Clifford Chance as its legal adviser. Alba has appointed Moelis & Co. UK LLP as its financial adviser.

This development comes as Ma’aden reports strong financial performance, with a net profit of SR2 billion ($532 million) for the first half of the year, marking a 160 percent increase compared to the same period in 2023.


Saudi investment licenses for Egyptian firms double in 2024, says minister 

Updated 16 September 2024
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Saudi investment licenses for Egyptian firms double in 2024, says minister 

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s issuance of investment licenses to Egyptian businesses more than doubled in 2024, reflecting a significant boost in economic collaboration between the two nations, according to a senior minister.

At a meeting with Egyptian Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly, organized by the Federation of Chambers in Riyadh, Saudi Investment Minister Khalid Al-Falih underscored Egypt’s increasing role as a key economic partner for the Kingdom. This follows Saudi Arabia’s exports to Egypt totaling $6.44 billion in 2022, while Egypt’s exports to the Kingdom reached $2.35 billion, as reported by the Observatory of Economic Complexity.

“During 2024, it (investment licenses) grew by more than 100 percent over the previous year, and Egyptian investors created more than 80,000 jobs in the Saudi economy,” the minister said.

He further emphasized the importance of the Egyptian market to the Kingdom, noting its broad involvement in sectors such as tourism, transportation, infrastructure, real estate development, agriculture, energy, and information technology.

“We, in the Kingdom, believe that strengthening cooperation with Egypt will benefit both the Saudi and Egyptian economies, which are, as I mentioned, the nucleus and heart of the Arab economy,” Al-Falih added.

The minister also pointed out that collaboration and integration between the two countries, along with leveraging their competitive advantages, would accelerate regional economic growth. He highlighted the relevance of this cooperation in light of global economic shifts supporting global supply chains, environmental preservation, and emerging sectors like information technology and artificial intelligence.

“The Saudi investor will not only provide Egypt with his investments but will be a partner with international companies that invest with him in the Kingdom and in all countries of the world. We aspire for Egypt to be an extension of investments in the Kingdom, giving us the weight of the large strategic market and the free trade agreements that Egypt enjoys,” he concluded.

During the meeting, Prime Minister Madbouly noted that Saudi Arabia remains the primary destination for Egyptian expatriates. “Our goal is to raise Egyptian exports from $35 billion to $145 billion,” he said.

Madbouly also emphasized Egypt’s efforts to resolve issues faced by Saudi investors, stating that many problems have been addressed, with ongoing work to tackle remaining challenges. He highlighted Egypt’s aim to attract more Saudi investments, especially with new incentives such as the golden license.

Egypt’s Minister of Investment and Foreign Trade, Hassan El-Khatib, who also attended the meeting, stressed the importance of listening to investors. “We know the challenges that the investor faces and find solutions to them,” he stated.

El-Khatib added: “The goal in this field is for me to have a clear investment policy that puts the competitiveness of the Egyptian economy at the heart of this strategy.”


Saudi entertainment authority to provide up to $26.6m in support to SMEs

Updated 16 September 2024
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Saudi entertainment authority to provide up to $26.6m in support to SMEs

  • Initiative aims to enhance and empower the entertainment industry in the Kingdom
  • Program offers coverage of up to 90%, depending on the size of the enterprise

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s General Entertainment Authority has increased its financial support for small and medium enterprises in the sector to up to SR100 million ($26.6 million), according to an official announcement. 

The initiative, in partnership with the Kafalah financing guarantee program for SMEs, aims to enhance and empower the entertainment industry in the Kingdom, as stated in a post by the GEA on the X platform. 

The program offers coverage of up to 90 percent, depending on the size of the enterprise. 

Initially launched in 2022, the initiative provided financing of up to SR15 million for medium enterprises, SR5 million for small companies, and SR2.5 million for micro-businesses through approved banks and financing firms. Specific details about the new SR100 million support have not yet been disclosed. 

This program is part of a broader effort to support and stimulate investments in the entertainment sector, coordinated by the Ministry of Finance, the General Entertainment Authority, and the Quality of Life Program Center. It aligns with the objectives of Saudi Vision 2030, which is to support and develop the entertainment industry in the Kingdom. 

Vision 2030 aims to transform Saudi Arabia’s entertainment sector by increasing household spending on recreation from 2.9 percent to 6 percent by 2030. 

It seeks to generate over SR120 billion in investments, create 100,000 direct and indirect jobs, and enhance the sector’s contribution to the economy.

Since its inception in July 2022, the undertaking has provided approximately SR70 million in financing and guarantees to entertainment establishments across Saudi Arabia. 

By the end of June 2023, a total of 16 establishments had benefited from the program, with the value of guarantees reaching SR31.3 million, supporting micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises. 

The initiative aims to further develop the entertainment sector by contributing to the growth of beneficiary establishments, helping them evolve into a major entity within the industry. 

It also seeks to provide necessary guarantees for financing and increase funding for businesses in entertainment and related services, including the sector’s supply chain and infrastructure. 

Additionally, the initiative aims to enhance the entertainment sector’s ecosystem and promote sustainability.