Pakistan must face its new geopolitical realities and address them head-on
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The next twelve years will be critical for South Asia much like the years between 1938 to 1950, which saw the entire world order reshaped and nations carved out of colonial empires. Pakistan was not just a product of local dynamics but was created in the broader context of global re-alignments, particularly through the influence of the Atlantic Charter. This agreement between the British Prime Minister, the US President and the broader Western alliance laid the groundwork for the independence of British India, driven by strategic considerations in the face of a rising global order. Pakistan, in particular, was envisioned with a unique role in counterbalancing the influence of the then Soviet Union post World War II.
However, the collapse of the USSR in the early 1990s brought about a new phase in global politics, one that has seen the gradual cooling-off of ideological tensions between the East and West. But with the end of that cooling-off period, Pakistan now faces a stark reality— it must redefine its role in a rapidly changing world. In this new geopolitical landscape, Pakistan’s current definition may no longer suffice. The borders, drawn based on the needs of a bygone era, may now need to be reconsidered if Pakistan is to remain a sustainable and strong nation. This redefinition may very well involve new geographical boundaries, shaped by both internal and external pressures.
On one side, we are witnessing the rise of nationalist movements that threaten the existing borders of the region. Across various provinces in Pakistan, there is a growing sense of disenfranchisement, with some groups pushing for greater autonomy or even secession. On the other side, in Punjab, which constitutes the heartland of the state of Pakistan, we are seeing the rise of extremist elements like Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP), which capitalize on religious sentiment and populist rhetoric to further their agendas. These two forces, nationalist movements on one side and extremist ideologies on the other, are setting the stage for a conflict that eerily mirrors the violence that took place during the partition of 1947. The situation is worsened by political conflict between Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and the security establishment— major groups that represent the federation of Pakistan. We see no end to this conflict and this is likely to result in further weakening of the state.
For Pakistan to thrive in the next era, it cannot cling solely to its past definitions or resist necessary change.
Fawad Chaudhry
Pakistan, created to serve as a bulwark against regional and ideological threats, now finds itself at a crossroads. To sustain itself, the country may need to undergo fundamental changes in how it defines its boundaries and addresses the challenges of extremism and regionalism. The current trajectory, if not managed carefully, could lead to yet another cycle of violence and instability similar to what was witnessed during partition. This potential for unrest, fueled by both nationalist aspirations and extremist influences, could force the region to reconsider its geographical landscape once again, as new lines may need to be drawn to accommodate the shifting tides of political, social and ideological forces.
The situation calls for a strong nationalistic approach, one that embraces Pakistan’s original vision of being a united, sovereign state that stands resilient in the face of internal and external threats. But this nationalism must also be forward-looking, adaptive to the changing geopolitical realities of today. It must recognize that for Pakistan to thrive in the next era, it cannot cling solely to its past definitions or resist necessary change. Instead, it must engage in a thoughtful process of redefining its identity and role in the world— one that reflects the needs of its people and the evolving global order.
The region is once again on the brink of transformation, and Pakistan’s ability to navigate this will determine its future strength and stability. India and Bangladesh, two other states also have a major say in this transformation, and how the relationship among these three countries evolves will determine the future decade of this region. If conflict among these states escalates, it will be extremely difficult to predict the geographical map of future. Nonetheless, whether through new boundaries, stronger governance or through addressing the rise of extremist ideologies, the coming years will demand a fresh, strategic vision that ensures Pakistan’s place in an ever-changing world.
– The writer is a former federal minister.
