Why Israel’s assault on Lebanon’s Hezbollah puts Iran’s IRGC in an unprecedented dilemma

Much of what happens next hinges on how Hezbollah’s key backer, Iran, chooses to respond. (AP)
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Updated 25 September 2024
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Why Israel’s assault on Lebanon’s Hezbollah puts Iran’s IRGC in an unprecedented dilemma

  • Since Hamas chief Haniyeh was killed in Tehran in July, there has been intense speculation about a direct conflict between Israel and Iran
  • Now with the situation in Lebanon rapidly escalating, the IRGC is under mounting pressure to come to the aid of its Hezbollah allies

LONDON: As world leaders gather in New York for the UN General Assembly, global attention is glued to the latest escalation taking place in the Middle East between Israel and Hezbollah, which has brought the region yet another step closer to all-out war.

On Monday, nearly 500 people, including 35 children, were killed in Israeli strikes in Lebanon, according to the country’s Health Ministry. The Israeli military said it had hit about 1,600 Hezbollah targets, killing a “large number” of militants.

Further strikes were carried out on Tuesday, making these the deadliest attacks Israel has carried out on Lebanon since the 2006 war.

The Israeli strikes came less than a week after coordinated sabotage attacks targeting Hezbollah’s communication devices killed 39 people and wounded almost 3,000. Hezbollah has responded with fresh rocket attacks deep into Israeli territory.




On Monday, nearly 500 people, including 35 children, were killed in Israeli strikes in Lebanon. (AFP)

There are now fears of a looming Israeli ground offensive into southern Lebanon.

“Although a full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah is a real possibility, both parties still prefer a diplomatic solution,” Hanin Ghaddar, the Friedmann Senior Fellow in The Washington Institute’s Linda and Tony Rubin Program on Arab Politics, wrote in Foreign Policy this week.

“Israel is trying to keep its attacks targeted, and Hezbollah is trying hard not to provoke Israel or be forced to use and waste its most valuable military assets — namely, precision missiles — which Iran regards as an insurance policy.”

Indeed, much of what happens next hinges on how Hezbollah’s key backer, Iran, chooses to respond.

On Tuesday, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian denounced the UN’s “inaction” against Israel, describing it as “senseless and incomprehensible,” amid surging tensions across the Middle East.




People gather at the site of an Israeli strike in Beirut's southern suburbs. (Reuters)

“In my meeting with the Secretary General of the United Nations, I said the UN inaction against the crimes of the occupying regime is senseless and incomprehensible,” Pezeshkian said in a post on social media platform X.

“I expressed my deep concern about the spread of the conflict in the entire Middle East,” he added.

Earlier, Pezeshkian told CNN that Iran’s ally Hezbollah “cannot stand alone against a country that is being defended and supported and supplied by Western countries, by European countries and the US.”

He called on the international community to “not allow Lebanon to become another Gaza,” in response to a question on whether Iran would use its influence with Hezbollah to urge restraint.

Iran understands better than any other nation, perhaps, the meaning of the word “restraint.”




There are now fears of a looming Israeli ground offensive into southern Lebanon. (AP)

Despite intense speculation about a direct military conflict between Iran and Israel following the killing of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in July, there remains little sign that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps intends to exact revenge for the humiliation.

Now with the situation in Lebanon rapidly escalating, the IRGC may have little option but to come to the aid of its Hezbollah allies, if only to protect a regional asset that has long been seen as its insurance policy against a pre-emptive Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear program.

“President Pezeshkian doesn’t really speak for the IRGC or the hard side of Iranian power,” Paul Salem, vice president for international engagement at the Middle East Institute, told Bloomberg Television on Tuesday.




Israel’s advanced missile defense systems make a successful large-scale Iranian attack unlikely. (AP)

“It’s often the case in Iran that they send soft messages in one area and hard messages in another. But it is also true that Iran does not want Hezbollah to go into an all-out war with Israel. It wants to preserve Hezbollah as a long-term deterrent for Iran itself, not for Hamas or anything related to the Palestinian issue.

“I think it’s trying to calm the situation, de-escalate the situation. I doubt very much that they would join any escalation of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah. I think they will keep their powder dry and to avoid being dragged into it, although they would certainly try to resupply and support Hezbollah.”




On Tuesday, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian denounced the UN’s “inaction” against Israel. (AP)

The IRGC’s avoidance of a direct conflict with Israel appears to be rooted in a complex web of strategic, military, and political considerations.

While Iran faces pressure to respond to Israeli provocations, the risks of escalation, the deterrent power of the US military, internal political and economic challenges, and the benefits of proxy warfare have all likely contributed to Tehran’s cautious approach.

As long as these dynamics remain in place, Iran is likely to continue relying on its proxies and asymmetric warfare, rather than risking an all-out war with Israel.

INNUMBERS

• 558 People killed in Israeli strikes in Lebanon on Monday and Tuesday, including at least 50 children and 94 women, and a further 1,835 injured, according to the Lebanese health ministry.

One of the primary reasons for the IRGC’s hesitancy to engage directly with Israel is the fear of sparking a broader conflict. Iran is acutely aware that any significant military action could result in severe retaliation not only from Israel but potentially from the US as well.

Moreover, Israeli military superiority is a major consideration. Israel’s advanced missile defense systems, such as the Iron Dome and the David’s Sling, make a successful large-scale Iranian attack unlikely.




The IRGC may have little option but to come to the aid of its Hezbollah allies. (AFP)

Past experiences, such as Israel’s interception of Iranian drones and missiles in April, highlight the difficulties Iran faces in overcoming Israeli defenses. The Iranian leadership, particularly the IRGC, understands that a failed or underwhelming attack would further embarrass the regime and weaken its regional standing.

Instead of engaging in direct military action, Iran has perfected the use of proxy warfare to counter Israeli influence. Tehran’s network of proxies, including Hezbollah in Lebanon and various Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria, allows it to strike at Israeli interests while maintaining plausible deniability.

This strategy minimizes the risks of a direct confrontation with Israel and the US, while still enabling Iran to project power and influence in the region.




Ultra-Orthodox Jewish children watch as smoke billows following rocket fire from Lebanon into Israel. (Reuters)

By relying on proxies, Iran can avoid the full consequences of a direct attack on Israel. This approach allows Tehran to engage in a shadow war, in which it can exert pressure on Israel without provoking a broader military response.

Proxy warfare also allows Iran to maintain its regional clout without overstretching its own military capabilities.

Iran is keenly aware of the shifting geopolitical landscape, particularly with the upcoming US presidential election and ongoing efforts to negotiate a ceasefire in Gaza. Iranian leaders may believe that a direct attack on Israel could undermine their diplomatic efforts and isolate the country further on the international stage.




Iran is keenly aware of the shifting geopolitical landscape, particularly with the upcoming US presidential election and ongoing efforts to negotiate a ceasefire in Gaza. (AFP)

Tehran is also cautious about giving former US President Donald Trump a reason to re-enter the political fray. Many in Iran’s leadership see Trump as a dangerous adversary, whose return to power could spell the end of any diplomatic progress made under the administration of Joe Biden.

So, if the IRGC is not prepared to risk all-out war with Israel, how is Hezbollah likely to respond? In a thread posted on X, Michael Young, senior editor at the Beirut-based Carnegie Middle East Center, said the militia has little option but to negotiate.

“There is much talk of Israel wanting an all-out war in Lebanon. In fact, what we’re seeing today was long expected for when Israel redeployed its troops to the north. We’re in an escalation to affect the outcome of negotiations, not to provoke an all-out war,” he said.




A woman who fled from southern Lebanon sits inside a shelter in Beirut. (Reuters)

“The Israelis are effectively telling Hezbollah: If you want an all-out war, then go ahead and provoke one, and you will be responsible for Lebanon’s destruction. But if you don’t want one, you will have to keep up with our escalations, which you cannot do.

“Hezbollah tried to ‘keep up’ (on Monday) by bombing northern Israel, to underline that no Israeli would return to the north for as long as the Gaza war continued. Israel today is replying that it will depopulate large parts of the south and Beqaa in response to this effort.

“But all this must be understood as preparations for negotiations.”

 


Iran-Israel war fears spark fuel shortages in West Bank

Updated 47 min 8 sec ago
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Iran-Israel war fears spark fuel shortages in West Bank

  • “Fearing potential supply disruptions or further escalation, citizens across the West Bank have begun stockpiling fuel,” said Abu Al-Rob
  • In the northern West Bank city of Nablus, dozens of drivers waited in line for fuel

RAMALLAH, Palestinian Territories: Fears over the war between Israel and Iran have led to fuel shortages in the occupied West Bank, the Palestinian Authority told AFP Wednesday, as drivers queued in long lines to buy fuel.

“Fearing potential supply disruptions or further escalation, citizens across the West Bank have begun stockpiling fuel, putting additional pressure on an already strained market,” said Mohammad Abu Al-Rob, director of the PA’s communications center.

After decades of enmity and a prolonged shadow war, Israel on Friday launched a massive bombing campaign that prompted Iran to respond with missiles and drones.

The PA official said there has also been “a noticeable decline in the number of fuel tankers arriving from Israel, some of which have been redirected for use by the Israeli occupation army.”

In the northern West Bank city of Nablus, dozens of drivers waited in line for fuel.

Mohammad Ayoub, a resident of Nablus who had been waiting in line for two hours, said he hoped to finally purchase fuel after several failed attempts.

“I came yesterday at about 11:00 p.m. and found the gas stations closed. I also came early in the morning and the situation was the same.”

Ahmad Samaana, a truck driver from Nablus, complained of limits placed on fuel purchases.

“Large trucks, like the one I have, need about 500 liters, but when we enter the station, the worker at the station tells me that he allows filling up with a value of 500 shekels, which is less than 100 liters of diesel,” he told AFP.

“This is not enough for a truck.”

Abu Al-Rob noted that “the (fuel) supply chain remains entirely subject to Israel’s will and control,” as the country controls all entry points into the West Bank, which it has occupied since 1967.

He relayed the Ramallah-based Palestinian Authority’s call “to safeguard the flow of essential supplies — particularly fuel for hospitals, bakeries, and other critical sectors” should the situation worsen.


Israel to resume natural gas exports when military deems it’s safe, energy minister says

Updated 18 June 2025
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Israel to resume natural gas exports when military deems it’s safe, energy minister says

  • Cohen said he has been in contact with Egypt and Jordan about the cut in supplies.
  • “I don’t want to use our strategic storage, so therefore, I needed to cut exports”

TEL AVIV: Israel will resume its natural gas exports when the country’s military believes it would be safe to do so, Israel’s Energy Minister Eli Cohen said on Wednesday, as an air battle between Israel and Iran entered its sixth day.

Two of Israel’s three gas fields — Chevron-operated Leviathan and Energean’s Karish — off its Mediterranean coast that provide the bulk of exports to Egypt and Jordan, have been shut since June 13 amid the conflict between Israel and Iran.

That leaves in operation only the older Tamar field, used mainly for domestic supplies.

Cohen said he has been in contact with Egypt and Jordan about the cut in supplies.

“They can see that we are in a war. I don’t want to use our strategic storage, so therefore, I needed to cut exports,” Cohen told Reuters after a news briefing.

“I hope I will be able to use another rig as soon as possible and use it for the supply of gas (exports). For me, the most important thing is (supplying) Israel,” he said, alluding to fueling needs during the conflict with Iran.

It wasn’t clear when another gas field will be reopened, Cohen said, noting: “We are working with them [the military], the Navy, and right now their recommendation is that one (field) will continue to work and two will be shut down.”

Israeli gas accounts for about 15-20 percent of Egypt’s consumption, data from the Joint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI) shows. The disruption to Israel’s gas supply led Egyptian fertilizer producers to halt operations on Friday.

Israel launched the air war on Iran on Friday after concluding the latter was on the verge of developing a nuclear weapon. Iran maintains its nuclear program is purely for civilian purposes.

OTHER ENERGY SOURCES
Israel’s energy sector, Cohen said, was operating normally, with no shortages expected since the country also maintains reserves in coal, diesel and renewable energy.

Israel’s Oil Refineries in Haifa was hit by an Iranian missile this week, which killed three people and halted operations.

Cohen said he hoped the facility would resume operations within a month, though a second refinery in the south remains open.

Since Friday, the percentage of renewable, or solar, energy used in electricity production has more than doubled to some 40 percent, Cohen said.

There was also some damage to wastewater treatment facilities and pipelines from Iranian air strikes.

Cohen acknowledged that victory against Iran could take weeks but Israel’s energy demands could be met.

“Although the Iranians struck some of our plants, we have very strong energy facilities that can supply all the energy demands for Israeli citizens and the army, in fuel, gas, electricity and water.”


Iranian Ambassador in Tokyo hails Saudi and Arab support

Updated 18 June 2025
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Iranian Ambassador in Tokyo hails Saudi and Arab support

  • Ambassador Seadat recognized the substantial support from Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman
  • “We will always remember the kindness shown to us by our brothers in Saudi Arabia,” he told Arab News Japan

TOKYO: Iranian Ambassador to Japan, Peiman Seadat, expressed his gratitude for the unified support of Saudi Arabia and other Arab and Muslim countries in their collective effort against the aggression of the Israeli war machine.

He stated that this unity among Arab and Muslim nations is a testament to the strength of regional cooperation.

In an exclusive interview with Arab News Japan on Wednesday, the Ambassador highlighted that Arab and Muslim countries recognize the seriousness of the aggression by the Israeli regime and the threat it poses to the entire region.

Ambassador Seadat recognized the substantial support from Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Foreign Minister Prince Farhan.

“We are deeply grateful for the compassionate assistance provided by the Crown Prince to approximately 80,000 Iranian pilgrims who have been stranded in Saudi Arabia. His Highness personally assured us that these pilgrims are being welcomed as guests of the Kingdom. We will always remember the kindness shown to us by our brothers in Saudi Arabia.”

The Iranian Ambassador, Seadat, also highlighted the support to Iran by Egypt, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Oman, among others. He also expressed gratitude to the Secretary-General of the Gulf Cooperation Council, for his clear condemnation of Israel’s aggressive actions against Iran.


Gaza Humanitarian Foundation initiative ‘outrageous’: UN probe chief

Updated 18 June 2025
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Gaza Humanitarian Foundation initiative ‘outrageous’: UN probe chief

  • GHF began operations on May 26 after Israel completely cut off supplies into Gaza for more than two months, sparking warnings of mass famine
  • UN and major aid groups have refused to cooperate with the foundation over concerns it was designed to cater to Israeli military objectives

GENEVA: The use of the US and Israeli-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation to distribute food in the Palestinian territory is “outrageous,” the head of a UN inquiry said Wednesday.
Navi Pillay, who chairs the UN’s Independent International Commission of Inquiry on Israel and the Palestinian territories, joined a growing chorus of criticism of the GHF’s operations, and cited its US links.
“In every war, the siege and starvation surely leads to death,” the former UN rights chief told journalists.
“But this initiative of what’s called a foundation, a private foundation, to supply food, is what I see as outrageous, because it involves the United States itself, the government, and it turns out, as we watch daily, that people who go to those centers are being killed as they seek food.”
An officially private effort with opaque funding, GHF began operations on May 26 after Israel completely cut off supplies into Gaza for more than two months, sparking warnings of mass famine.
The United Nations and major aid groups have refused to cooperate with the foundation over concerns it was designed to cater to Israeli military objectives.
Dozens of Palestinians have been killed while trying to reach GHF distribution points.
Pillay said the commission would “have to look into... the policy purpose and how it’s being effected.
“We have to spell out what is the motive of, right now, the killing of people who are coming for humanitarian aid from this so-called foundation — and that lives are being lost just in trying to secure food for their children.”
Unprecedented in its open-ended scope, the three-person Commission of Inquiry was established by the UN Human Rights Council in May 2021 to investigate alleged violations of international humanitarian and human rights law in Israel and the Palestinian territories.
South African former High Court judge Pillay, 83, served as a judge on the International Criminal Court and presided over the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda.
On Tuesday she presented the commission’s latest report to the Human Rights Council.
It said Israel had attacked Gaza’s schools, religious and cultural sites as part of a “widespread and systematic” assault on the civilian population, in which Israeli forces have committed “war crimes” and “the crime against humanity of extermination.”
Israel does not cooperate with the investigation and has long accused it of “systematic anti-Israel discrimination.”


UAE president, Russia’s Putin discuss Iran-Israel conflict

Updated 18 June 2025
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UAE president, Russia’s Putin discuss Iran-Israel conflict

  • Emirati, Russian leaders proposed ways to contain the military escalation

LONDON: Russian President Vladimir Putin held a phone call with UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan to discuss the latest developments in the Iran-Israel conflict, which entered its sixth day as of Wednesday.

The leaders addressed the grave implications of the conflict — which began on Friday — on regional and global security, according to the Emirates News Agency.

They discussed efforts to contain the war and halt the spiraling escalation, and highlighted the importance of exercising restraint and pursuing dialogue to avoid further threats to security.

Putin and Sheikh Mohamed voiced their support for all efforts aimed at achieving a solution through diplomatic means, WAM reported.