KYIV, Ukraine: The victory plan that President Volodymyr Zelensky will present to the White House this week asks the Biden administration to do something it has not achieved in the two and a half years since Russia invaded Ukraine: act quickly to support Kyiv’s campaign.
While Western dawdling has amplified Ukraine’s losses, some Ukrainian officials, diplomats and analysts fear Kyiv’s aim to have the plan implemented before a new US president takes office in January may be out of reach.
US Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield, reportedly briefed on the plan, said it “can work” but many privately question how.
The specifics of Zelensky’s blueprint have been kept under wraps until it can be formally presented to President Joe Biden, but contours of the plan have emerged, including the need for fast action on decisions Western allies have been mulling since the full-scale invasion began in 2022.
It includes the security guarantee of NATO membership, according to Zelensky’s chief of staff Andrii Yermak — a principal demand of Kyiv and Moscow’s key point of contention. Western allies, including the US, have been skeptical about this option.
Zelensky has said he will also seek permission to use long-range weapons to strike deep inside Russian territory, another red line for some of Ukraine’s supporters.
“Partners often say, ‘We will be with Ukraine until its victory.’ Now we clearly show how Ukraine can win and what is needed for this. Very specific things,” Zelensky told reporters ahead of the trip. “Let’s do all this today, while all the officials who want victory for Ukraine are still in official positions.”
Meanwhile, outnumbered Ukrainian forces face grinding battles against one of the world’s most powerful armies in the east. As Zelensky pitches his plan to Biden on Thursday, Ukrainian servicemen will be grappling to hold defensive lines in the key logistics point of Vuhledar in the Donetsk region. For some of them, it is essential that Biden buys into Zelensky’s plan.
“I hope that allies will provide us with what we need,” said Kyanin, a soldier fighting in the Donetsk region. “Not 10 or 31 tanks, but a thousand tanks, thousands of weapons and ammunition.”
Kyiv sets the terms
The victory plan is Kyiv’s response to rising pressure from Western allies and war-weary Ukrainians to negotiate a ceasefire. A deal with Russia would almost certainly be unfavorable for Ukraine, which has lost a fifth of its territory and tens of thousands of lives in the conflict.
Unless, Kyiv calculates, its western partners act quickly. Ukraine’s allies have routinely mulled over requests for weapons and capabilities, granting them often after their strategic value is diminished. Under the plan, from October to December, they must dramatically strengthen Kyiv’s hand.
The plan comprises military, political, diplomatic and economic elements.
Aside from the demand for NATO membership, it seeks to bolster Ukraine’s defenses, including air defense capabilities, enough to force Moscow to negotiate.
A request to ramp up sanctions to weaken Russia’s economy and defense industry is also expected.
Zelensky has said without elaborating that Kyiv’s military incursion into Kursk, in Russia, is part of the victory plan. That offensive, which embarrassed President Vladimir Putin as the Kremlin scrambled to counterattack, has not yielded any strategic gains. But it has shown the Russian public and doubtful Western allies that Russian is not invincible and Kyiv still has offensive capabilities despite being battered on the eastern front.
The cost of inaction
Zelensky has described his proposal as “a bridge to the Peace Summit” that he has proposed for November but that Russia says it will not attend. No international players capable of swaying Moscow agreed to his earlier 10-point peace plan, which calls for the full withdrawal of Russian forces.
Ukrainian presidential advisers and lawmakers have told The Associated Press that Kyiv will only agree to a ceasefire with Russia if Putin’s ability to invade the country again is crippled. Any other arrangement would not benefit Ukraine’s future or honor the sacrifices of its people.
Ukrainian officials have rejected competing proposals from China and Brazil, believing they would merely pause the war and give Moscow time to consolidate its battered army and defense industry.
“It will lead to a freezing of the conflict, nothing more: Occupied territories are considered occupied. Sanctions against Russia remain. The intensity of war drops significantly but it continues,” said one presidential adviser, who requested anonymity to speak freely.
He predicted that Moscow would recalibrate and attack again, likely from Mykolaiv and Odesa in the south, “within two, three, four years, or maybe even earlier, depending on the state of Russia. That’s the scenario.”
Russia’s conditions for ending the war are spelled out in a 17-page draft agreement penned in April 2022.
The time element
Prolonging the status quo will only play into Russia’s hands in the long-term, analysts said.
“Ukraine will lose more than 1,000 square kilometers (600 miles) by the end of the year,” if current conditions continue, said Oleksandr Kovalenko, a military analyst for Information Resistance, a Kyiv-based think tank. “We need to understand that if (allies) don’t defend Ukraine, it will make this war last for many more years, and finally, make it possible for us to lose the war,” he said.
Time will also allow Russian forces to build up its weapons industry, as it did at a frightening pace in the last year, said Kovalenko.
“We lack every kind of weapon, and Russia produces their weapons 24 hours a day,” Kovalenko said.
Russia has updated its aerial glide bombs, for which Ukraine has no effective countermeasure. They now weigh 3,000 pounds, which is six times bigger than when they were first used in the battle for Bakhmut in 2022, he said.
Soldiers in eastern Ukraine and analysts said long-range Western weapons would be the most effective countermeasure against glide bombs, which have been deployed along the frontline, including in Vuhledar. The mining town’s fall would compromise supply lines feeding the southern front and strike a devastating blow to Ukrainian morale.
In his final address to the UN General Assembly on Tuesday, Biden urged Ukraine’s backers to stand firm.
“We cannot grow weary,” he said. “We cannot look away.”
Zelensky’s victory plan sets Ukraine’s terms in a desperate war against Russia
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Zelensky’s victory plan sets Ukraine’s terms in a desperate war against Russia
- Zelensky has said he will also seek permission to use long-range weapons to strike deep inside Russian territory
Ukraine’s Zelensky says Russian artillery fire has not subsided
KYIV: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Saturday that, according to his top commander, Russian artillery fire had not subsided despite the Kremlin’s proclamation of an Easter ceasefire.
“As of now, according to the Commander-in-Chief reports, Russian assault operations continue on several frontline sectors, and Russian artillery fire has not subsided,” Zelensky wrote on the social media platform X.
“Therefore, there is no trust in words coming from Moscow.”
He recalled that Russia had last month rejected a US-proposed full 30-day ceasefire and said that if Moscow agreed to “truly engage in a format of full and unconditional silence, Ukraine will act accordingly — mirroring Russia’s actions.”
“If a complete ceasefire truly takes hold, Ukraine proposes extending it beyond the Easter day of April 20,” Zelensky wrote.
Kyiv calls on foreign troops not to take part in Russia’s May 9 parade
- “The Russian army has committed and continues to commit atrocities in Ukraine,” Kyiv’s foreign ministry said
- “These people are not liberators of Europe, they are occupiers and war criminals“
KYIV: Ukraine warned Tuesday against any foreign troop participation in Russia’s May 9 parade to mark 80 years since the defeat of Nazi Germany, saying it would be “unacceptable” and seen as helping Moscow “whitewash its war crimes.”
A handful of countries have in recent years sent their militaries to take part in Russia’s traditional May 9 parade — a showpiece event that has become the country’s most important public holiday under President Vladimir Putin’s quarter-century in power.
“The Russian army has committed and continues to commit atrocities in Ukraine on a scale that Europe has not seen since World War II,” Kyiv’s foreign ministry said.
“It is this army that will march on Red Square in Moscow on May 9. These people are not liberators of Europe, they are occupiers and war criminals.”
Kyiv said marching with Russian soldiers would be considered as “sharing responsibility” for Moscow’s actions during its three-year Ukraine invasion.
“To march side by side with them is to share responsibility for the blood of murdered Ukrainian children, civilians and military, not to honor the victory over Nazism.”
Ukraine was one of the most devastated countries during World War II, with Kyiv saying it “touched every Ukrainian family.”
The foreign ministry also said that six million Ukrainians fought in the Red Army — with five million Ukrainian civilians killed and three million Ukrainian troops.
Russian leader Vladimir Putin attributed the victory over Nazism in Europe as a feat primarily achieved by the Russian nation.
Central Asian troops have often taken part in the Moscow parade.
The Kremlin has this year not ruled out that North Korean soldiers could take part for the first time, after Pyongyang’s troops helped Moscow oust Ukrainian soldiers from Russia’s Kursk region.
UN chief: India, Pakistan must ‘step back from the brink’
- Countries should exercise ‘maximum restraint’ amid soaring tensions, says Antonio Guterres
- UN Security Council holds closed-door session to discuss dispute
NEW YORK CITY: UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has called on India and Pakistan to exercise “maximum restraint” amid soaring tensions between the two countries.
It follows last month’s terror attack in the Pahalgam area of Jammu and Kashmir.
Both countries administer parts of the territory but claim it in full.
The attack on April 22 killed at least 26 civilians and injured many more.
Guterres, speaking outside the Security Council at UN Headquarters in New York City on Monday, warned that tensions between India and Pakistan “are at their highest in years.”
He added: “I deeply respect and am profoundly grateful to the government and people of both countries — and their significant contributions to the work of the UN, not least UN peacekeeping.
“And so it pains me to see relations reaching a boiling point.”
The Indian government today will carry out a nationwide civil defense drill to simulate an attack on its territory.
Pakistan on Saturday test-fired a ballistic missile with a range of 450 km.
Guterres called on the two countries to “step back from the brink,” and warned that a “military solution is no solution.”
He said: “I understand the raw feelings following the awful terror attack in Pahalgam on April 22.
“I once again strongly condemn that attack and extend my condolences to the families of the victims.
“Targeting civilians is unacceptable — and those responsible must be brought to justice through credible and lawful means.
“It is also essential — especially at this critical hour — to avoid a military confrontation that could easily spin out of control.
“Now is the time for maximum restraint and stepping back from the brink.
The UN Security Council met on Monday in a closed-door session to discuss the tensions.
Guterres pledged to support “any initiative that promotes de-escalation, diplomacy and a renewed commitment to peace.”
Macron to host Syrian leader’s first European visit
- French President Emmanuel Macron will welcome Syrian leader Ahmed Al-Sharaa to Paris on Wednesday for his first visit to Europe
PARIS: French President Emmanuel Macron will welcome Syrian leader Ahmed Al-Sharaa to Paris on Wednesday for his first visit to Europe, despite growing doubts about Syria’s ruling Islamist coalition and protests from France’s far right.
Since the fall of longtime Syrian ruler Bashar Assad in December following fourteen years of devastating war, the international community has been pressing the new authorities, who have roots in the Al-Qaeda jihadist network, to respect personal freedoms, protect minorities and include all components of society in the country’s transition.
Many countries say they will monitor the new authorities’ conduct before fully lifting Assad-era sanctions.
“This meeting is part of France’s historic commitment to the Syrian people who aspire to peace and democracy,” the Elysee Palace said on Tuesday.
Macron will “reiterate France’s support for the construction of a new Syria, a free, stable, sovereign Syria that respects all components of Syrian society,” the presidency said.
Macron will also emphasize “his demands on the Syrian government, primarily the stabilization of the region, including Lebanon, and the fight against terrorism,” it said.
President Sharaa is still subject to a UN travel ban. France most likely had to request an exemption from the United Nations, as was the case for his recent trips to Turkiye and Saudi Arabia, according to a source familiar with the matter.
France, a former colonial ruler of Syria, is eyeing an opportunity to increase its influence in the country after years of Russian presence.
In February, France organized a conference in Paris on the reconstruction of Syria, in the hope of steering the fragile transition. Syria has been devastated by years of civil war, with over 90 percent of the population living below the poverty line.
Macron had first invited Syria’s new leader to visit France in February.
In March, he repeated the invitation but made it conditional on the formation of an inclusive Syrian government representing “all components of civil society,” describing his initial negotiations with the interim leaders as “positive.”
Syria’s new Islamist authorities have vowed inclusive rule in the multi-confessional, multi-ethnic country.
But sectarian clashes in March in which more than 1,700 people were killed, mostly from Assad’s Alawite minority, sparked widespread condemnation.
More recent clashes involving fighters from the Druze community, as well as reports of abuses from NGOs, have also raised doubts about the interim government’s ability to control extremists in its ranks.
Adding to pressure on the new Syrian government, Israel has also launched hundreds of strikes on the country since Assad’s overthrow, including one near the presidential palace in Damascus on Friday.
Israel has said its forces stand ready to protect the Druze minority and said the strike near the presidential palace was intended to send a “clear message” to Syria’s new rulers.
But the interim government described the strike as a “dangerous escalation,” while the United Nations urged Israel to halt its attacks on Syria “at once.”
The French far right criticized the upcoming talks.
Far-right leader Marine Le Pen accused Macron of hosting talks with “a jihadist” who has been involved with the Daesh group and Al-Qaeda, adding such a meeting would be “provocative and irresponsible.”
“Shock and dismay,” Le Pen said on X.
“Once again, Emmanuel Macron is damaging France’s image and discrediting its commitment, particularly among its allies, in the fight against Islamism.”
Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot, who met with the Syrian leader on a visit to Damascus in January, defended the talks.
“The safety of French people is at stake in Syria,” Barrot told broadcaster RTL, adding it was important to fight terrorism and drug trafficking in the conflict-riven country as well as control migration.
Not engaging the leaders of Syria and Lebanon would amount to “rolling out the red carpet for Daesh,” he said, referring to the Daesh terrorists.
French companies are meanwhile eyeing a role in Syria’s reconstruction.
Last week, French logistics giant CMA CGM signed a 30-year contract to develop and operate the port of Latakia, at an event attended by Sharaa.
UK may restrict students from countries most likely to claim asylum
- High levels of legal migration have long dominated Britain’s political conversation
- Out of the 108,000 people who claimed asylum in Britain last year, 16,000 had student visas
LONDON: The British government may restrict visa applications from students living in countries that are considered most likely to claim asylum in a move designed to bring down annual net migration, a government official said.
The move comes after Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s Labour Party was punished in local elections in England last week by voters angry over issues, including illegal immigration.
The government is expected next week to publish a policy document, known as a white paper, which will set out how the government plans to reduce net migration, which reached 728,000 people in the year to June last year.
“Our upcoming Immigration White Paper will set out a comprehensive plan to restore order to our broken immigration system,” the Home Office said in a statement.
High levels of legal migration have long dominated Britain’s political conversation and were one of the major drivers for the Brexit referendum in 2016.
Out of the 108,000 people who claimed asylum in Britain last year, 16,000 had student visas, government data shows. The government does not provide a breakdown of the nationalities of those who had student visas, who went on to claim asylum.
But the government said people from Pakistan, Nigeria and Sri Lanka were the most likely to claim asylum in Britain after arriving on a work, student, or a visitor visa.
In the aftermath of the party’s poor local election results last week, some Labour members of parliament urged the government to do more to take a more decisive approach on issues such as bringing down net migration.
Jo White, who represents a group of lawmakers in previously Labour heartlands known as the “Red Wall,” said the government should stop “pussyfooting around.”
