KYIV, Ukraine: The victory plan that President Volodymyr Zelensky will present to the White House this week asks the Biden administration to do something it has not achieved in the two and a half years since Russia invaded Ukraine: act quickly to support Kyiv’s campaign.
While Western dawdling has amplified Ukraine’s losses, some Ukrainian officials, diplomats and analysts fear Kyiv’s aim to have the plan implemented before a new US president takes office in January may be out of reach.
US Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield, reportedly briefed on the plan, said it “can work” but many privately question how.
The specifics of Zelensky’s blueprint have been kept under wraps until it can be formally presented to President Joe Biden, but contours of the plan have emerged, including the need for fast action on decisions Western allies have been mulling since the full-scale invasion began in 2022.
It includes the security guarantee of NATO membership, according to Zelensky’s chief of staff Andrii Yermak — a principal demand of Kyiv and Moscow’s key point of contention. Western allies, including the US, have been skeptical about this option.
Zelensky has said he will also seek permission to use long-range weapons to strike deep inside Russian territory, another red line for some of Ukraine’s supporters.
“Partners often say, ‘We will be with Ukraine until its victory.’ Now we clearly show how Ukraine can win and what is needed for this. Very specific things,” Zelensky told reporters ahead of the trip. “Let’s do all this today, while all the officials who want victory for Ukraine are still in official positions.”
Meanwhile, outnumbered Ukrainian forces face grinding battles against one of the world’s most powerful armies in the east. As Zelensky pitches his plan to Biden on Thursday, Ukrainian servicemen will be grappling to hold defensive lines in the key logistics point of Vuhledar in the Donetsk region. For some of them, it is essential that Biden buys into Zelensky’s plan.
“I hope that allies will provide us with what we need,” said Kyanin, a soldier fighting in the Donetsk region. “Not 10 or 31 tanks, but a thousand tanks, thousands of weapons and ammunition.”
Kyiv sets the terms
The victory plan is Kyiv’s response to rising pressure from Western allies and war-weary Ukrainians to negotiate a ceasefire. A deal with Russia would almost certainly be unfavorable for Ukraine, which has lost a fifth of its territory and tens of thousands of lives in the conflict.
Unless, Kyiv calculates, its western partners act quickly. Ukraine’s allies have routinely mulled over requests for weapons and capabilities, granting them often after their strategic value is diminished. Under the plan, from October to December, they must dramatically strengthen Kyiv’s hand.
The plan comprises military, political, diplomatic and economic elements.
Aside from the demand for NATO membership, it seeks to bolster Ukraine’s defenses, including air defense capabilities, enough to force Moscow to negotiate.
A request to ramp up sanctions to weaken Russia’s economy and defense industry is also expected.
Zelensky has said without elaborating that Kyiv’s military incursion into Kursk, in Russia, is part of the victory plan. That offensive, which embarrassed President Vladimir Putin as the Kremlin scrambled to counterattack, has not yielded any strategic gains. But it has shown the Russian public and doubtful Western allies that Russian is not invincible and Kyiv still has offensive capabilities despite being battered on the eastern front.
The cost of inaction
Zelensky has described his proposal as “a bridge to the Peace Summit” that he has proposed for November but that Russia says it will not attend. No international players capable of swaying Moscow agreed to his earlier 10-point peace plan, which calls for the full withdrawal of Russian forces.
Ukrainian presidential advisers and lawmakers have told The Associated Press that Kyiv will only agree to a ceasefire with Russia if Putin’s ability to invade the country again is crippled. Any other arrangement would not benefit Ukraine’s future or honor the sacrifices of its people.
Ukrainian officials have rejected competing proposals from China and Brazil, believing they would merely pause the war and give Moscow time to consolidate its battered army and defense industry.
“It will lead to a freezing of the conflict, nothing more: Occupied territories are considered occupied. Sanctions against Russia remain. The intensity of war drops significantly but it continues,” said one presidential adviser, who requested anonymity to speak freely.
He predicted that Moscow would recalibrate and attack again, likely from Mykolaiv and Odesa in the south, “within two, three, four years, or maybe even earlier, depending on the state of Russia. That’s the scenario.”
Russia’s conditions for ending the war are spelled out in a 17-page draft agreement penned in April 2022.
The time element
Prolonging the status quo will only play into Russia’s hands in the long-term, analysts said.
“Ukraine will lose more than 1,000 square kilometers (600 miles) by the end of the year,” if current conditions continue, said Oleksandr Kovalenko, a military analyst for Information Resistance, a Kyiv-based think tank. “We need to understand that if (allies) don’t defend Ukraine, it will make this war last for many more years, and finally, make it possible for us to lose the war,” he said.
Time will also allow Russian forces to build up its weapons industry, as it did at a frightening pace in the last year, said Kovalenko.
“We lack every kind of weapon, and Russia produces their weapons 24 hours a day,” Kovalenko said.
Russia has updated its aerial glide bombs, for which Ukraine has no effective countermeasure. They now weigh 3,000 pounds, which is six times bigger than when they were first used in the battle for Bakhmut in 2022, he said.
Soldiers in eastern Ukraine and analysts said long-range Western weapons would be the most effective countermeasure against glide bombs, which have been deployed along the frontline, including in Vuhledar. The mining town’s fall would compromise supply lines feeding the southern front and strike a devastating blow to Ukrainian morale.
In his final address to the UN General Assembly on Tuesday, Biden urged Ukraine’s backers to stand firm.
“We cannot grow weary,” he said. “We cannot look away.”
Zelensky’s victory plan sets Ukraine’s terms in a desperate war against Russia
https://arab.news/4k4yp
Zelensky’s victory plan sets Ukraine’s terms in a desperate war against Russia
- Zelensky has said he will also seek permission to use long-range weapons to strike deep inside Russian territory
London’s Gatwick Airport reopens terminal following security alert
- Police sent a bomb disposal team to deal with a suspected prohibited item that they said had been found in luggage at the airport’s south terminal, 30 miles south of London
- “The earlier security alert has now been resolved and cleared by police,” Gatwick said
LONDON: London’s Gatwick Airport, the second busiest airport in Britain, reopened a terminal on Friday after a security alert earlier in the day forced its evacuation and caused travel disruption for thousands of people.
Police sent a bomb disposal team to deal with a suspected prohibited item that they said had been found in luggage at the airport’s south terminal, 30 miles south of London.
“The earlier security alert has now been resolved and cleared by police,” Gatwick said in a statement. “The South Terminal is reopening to staff and will be open to passengers shortly.”
The incident disrupted weekend travel plans for thousands of passengers, with more than 600 flights due to land or take off on Friday from Gatwick, amounting to more than 121,000 passenger seats, according to data from aviation analytics firm Cirium.
Thousands of passengers were seen outside the terminal and the surrounding area in videos posted online after the terminal shut for several hours. Emergency foil blankets were distributed to some of the passengers who were waiting in the cold, social media pictures showed.
In a separate incident earlier on Friday, London police carried out a controlled explosion near the US embassy in south London after discovering a suspect package. Police later said they believed it was a hoax.
New Bangladeshi tourism initiative empowers marginalized Indigenous groups
- BRAC’s Othiti program helps uplift rural communities and their traditional skills
- Pilot program is underway in Rajshahi district near the Bangladesh–India border
DHAKA: A new initiative by Bangladesh’s largest development organization is fostering community-based tourism in remote rural areas to empower Indigenous groups and help preserve their cultures.
There are more than 50 Indigenous groups in Bangladesh, most of whom, or about 1 million people, live in the flatland districts of the country’s north and southeast, and in the Chittagong Hill Tracts, bordering India and Myanmar.
Launched in early November, the new tourism initiative spearheaded by BRAC is named Othiti, which means “guest” in Bengali.
The pilot program is underway in Rajshahi district on the northern bank of the Padma River, near the Bangladesh–India border.
“We started the journey of Othiti from Rajshahi. Tourists rarely visit this part of the country, but it is very rich, both culturally and historically. Starting from the mighty river Padma, there’s a lot of natural beauty over there,” Asif Saleh, BRAC executive director, told Arab News.
“We will not be confined within Rajshahi. There are plans to expand this tourism project in other parts of the country … in places like Sundarbans, Chottogram Hill Tracts, Cox’s Bazar. We will try to connect tourists particularly with the Indigenous communities of these areas to experience their traditions, culture, and customs. If tourists can experience the diversity of these areas, they can connect with them in a different way. It will make people prouder of the rich history and culture of our country.”
The project involves rural youth, students of the Rajshahi University, whom BRAC has employed as part-time guides to introduce visitors to their customs and traditional livelihoods.
“We have built a relationship of trust and reliability with these communities. We hope that tourists will become interested in the culture and customs of the Indigenous people, and have a better understanding and empathy towards them,” Saleh said.
“Our Othiti aims for the sector’s development as well as employment for the (local) people, which will benefit these communities … We began this project as a social enterprise. We may incur loss initially for many years, but ultimately, if the sector develops, it will attract many people.”
Indigenous communities in Bangladesh have been struggling with access to education, healthcare, and jobs. Many live in forest areas with inadequate infrastructure. Poverty and unemployment levels among these groups are much higher than among the non-Indigenous.
Moutushi Biswas, a BRAC consultant, said a number of initiatives under the Othiti program are meant to uplift the communities and their traditional skills.
For example, introducing tourists to the Premtoli village of potters helped increase demand for their earthenware and work.
“While visiting the pottery community, tourists are experiencing the craftsmanship of potters who have been engaged in this for many generations. They can experience it by themselves, making clay pots under the guidance of a traditional potter. It’s a very unique experience,” she said.
“This initiative is also strengthening the abilities of local communities … The locals who work with us are very enthusiastic about this. We are receiving huge cooperation from them.”
For Happy Soren, a 25-year-old student and Othiti guide, having tourists visit was not only strengthening the village’s economy but also helping raise awareness about her community.
“The tourists want to know our customs and religious beliefs. They want to know the reasons behind the special patterns and paintings on our houses … Our village becomes very festive when they visit us,” she said.
“We believe the tourists who experience our culture and heritage will play a role in developing our village after they go back to their own places and work. They will stand by our people.”
Top court intervenes in New Delhi pollution crisis as respiratory cases spike
- Number of patients with respiratory diseases has increased two to threefold
- Court orders Delhi authorities to set up checkpoints, prevent entry of commercial vehicles
India’s top court intervened on Friday to request policing measures in New Delhi to contain severe air pollution that over the past week has led to a surge in hospital admissions for respiratory diseases.
Residents of the Indian capital again woke to a thick layer of toxic smog, with an overall Air Quality Index reading of 373, or “very poor,” according to the Central Pollution Control Board.
While conditions have slightly improved since Monday, when a medical emergency was declared with pollution reaching the “severe plus” AQI score of 484, the prolonged crisis prompted the Supreme Court to order the central and local governments to introduce new measures to contain it.
The court said during Friday’s hearing that it was “not satisfied” with the Delhi administration and police efforts to address the pollution and ordered the authorities to “ensure that check posts are immediately set up at all 113 entry points (to the capital)” to stop trucks and commercial vehicles from entering the city.
The move follows the court’s order earlier this week to suspend all construction work in the whole of New Delhi and the National Capital Region.
“It is a constitutional obligation of the central government and the states to ensure that citizens live in a pollution-free atmosphere,” the court said.
As toxic smog has persisted for over a week, Delhi authorities have shut all schools and moved classes online, while half of the government employees have been allowed to work from home.
The continuing crisis is already reflected in a surge of hospitalizations for respiratory disease.
“The cases related to lungs and respiratory problems have significantly risen,” Dr. Nikhil Modi, pulmonologist at Indraprastha Apollo Hospital in New Delhi, told Arab News, adding that the patients coming to the hospital with respiratory issues are “two to three times the normal” amount.
“Especially for those who already have underlying lung disease, the problem can be significant, and if they develop a secondary pneumonia or an infection, then they require emergency admission,” Modi said.
Toxic smog arrives in New Delhi every winter as temperatures drop, trapping toxic pollutants from tens of millions of cars, as well as construction sites, factory emissions, and waste burning. It is aggravated by farmland fires in the country’s northwest and southeast, where farmers clear stubble to prepare fields to plant wheat.
The US Embassy in London returns to normal after police carry out controlled explosion of package
- London’s Metropolitan Police Service closed a road on the west side of the embassy
- “Local authorities investigated and cleared a suspicious package outside the Embassy,” the embassy said
LONDON: The US Embassy in London returned to normal operations Friday afternoon after police carried out the controlled explosion of a suspicious package that was found in the area earlier in the day.
London’s Metropolitan Police Service closed a road on the west side of the embassy out of an “abundance of caution” as they investigated the incident, the embassy said in a statement. The embassy said it had returned to “normal business operations” by early afternoon, although all public appointments were canceled for the day.
“Local authorities investigated and cleared a suspicious package outside the Embassy,” the embassy said. ”Thanks to @metpoliceuk for your swift action, and thanks to all visitors for your cooperation and patience at this time.”
Also Friday, authorities evacuated the south terminal of London’s Gatwick Airport while they investigated a suspicious item found in luggage. Sussex Police said they had sent an ordnance disposal team to the airport as a precaution.
A proposed deal on climate cash at UN summit highlights split between rich and poor nations
- “Our expectations were low, but this is a slap in the face,” said Mohamed Adow, from Power Shift Africa
- “No developing country will fall for this. They have angered and offended the developing world”
BAKU: A new draft of a deal on cash to curb and adapt to climate change released Friday afternoon at the United Nations climate summit pledged $250 billion by 2035 from wealthy countries to poorer ones. The amount pleases the countries who will be paying, but not those on the receiving end.
The amount is more than double the previous goal of $100 billion a year set 15 years ago, but it’s less than a quarter of the number requested by developing nations struck hardest by extreme weather. But rich nations say the number is about the limit of what they can do, say it’s realistic and a stretch for democracies back home to stomach.
It struck a sour note for developing countries, which see conferences like this one as their biggest hope to pressure rich nations because they can’t attend meetings of the world’s biggest economies.
“Our expectations were low, but this is a slap in the face,” said Mohamed Adow, from Power Shift Africa. “No developing country will fall for this. They have angered and offended the developing world.”
Nations are still far apart on reaching a deal
The proposal came down from the top, the presidency of UN climate talks — called COP29 — in Baku, Azerbaijan. Delegations from numerous countries, analysts and advocates were kept in the dark about the draft until it dropped more than a half a day later than promised, prompting grumblings about how this conference was being run.
“These texts form a balanced and streamlined package,” the Presidency said in a statement. “The COP29 Presidency urges parties to study this text intently, to pave the way toward consensus, on the few options remaining.”
This proposal, which is friendly to the viewpoint of Saudi Arabia, is not a take-it-or-leave-it option, but likely only the first of two or even three proposals, said Climate Analytics CEO Bill Hare, a veteran negotiator.
“We’re in for a long night and maybe two nights before we actually reach agreement on this,” Hare said.
Just like last year’s initial proposal, which was soundly rejected, this plan is “empty” on what climate analysts call “mitigation” or efforts to reduce emissions from or completely get off coal, oil and natural gas, Hare said.
Anger at ‘meagre’ figure for climate cash
The frustration and disappointment at the proposed $250 billion figure was palpable on Friday afternoon.
“It is a disgrace that despite full awareness of the devastating climate crises afflicting developing nations and the staggering costs of climate action — amounting to trillions — developed nations have only proposed a meagre $250 billion per year,” said Harjeet Singh of the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty.
That amount, which goes through the year 2035, is basically the old $100 billion year goal with 6 percent annual inflation, said Vaibhav Chaturvedi a climate policy analyst with New Delhi-based Council on Energy, Environment and Water.
Experts put the need at $1.3 trillion for developing countries to cover damages resulting from extreme weather, help those nations adapt to a warming planet and wean themselves from fossil fuels, with more generated by each country internally.
The amount in any deal reached at COP negotiations — often considered a “core” — will then be mobilized or leveraged for greater climate spending. But much of that means loans for countries drowning in debt.
Singh said the proposed sum — which includes loans and lacks a commitment to grant-based finance — adds “insult to injury.”
Iskander Erzini Vernoit, director of Moroccan climate think-tank Imal Initiative for Climate and Development, said “the EU and the US and other developed countries cannot claim to be committed to the Paris Agreement while putting forward such amounts” of money.
Countries reached the Paris Agreement in 2015, pledging to keep warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit) since pre-industrial times. The world is now at 1.3 degrees Celsius (2.3 degrees Fahrenheit), according to the UN
Rich countries call for realism
Switzerland environment minister Albert Rösti said it was important that the climate finance number is realistic.
“I think a deal with a high number that will never be realistic, that will never be paid… will be much worse than no deal,” he said.
The United States’ delegation offered a similar warning.
“It has been a significant lift over the past decade to meet the prior, smaller goal” of $100 billion, said a senior US official. “$250 billion will require even more ambition and extraordinary reach” and will need to be supported by private finance, multilateral development banks — which are large international banks funded by taxpayer dollars — and other sources of finance, the official said.
A lack of a bigger number from European nations and the US means that the “deal is clearly moving toward the direction of China playing a more prominent role in helping other global south countries,” said Li Shou of the Asia Society Policy Institute.
German delegation sources said it will be important to be in touch with China and other industrialized nations as negotiations press on into the evening.
Analysts said the proposed deal is the start of what could likely be more money.
“This can be a good down payment that will allow for good climate action in developing countries,” said Melanie Robinson, global climate program director at the World Resources Institute. “There is scope for this to go above $250 billion if contributors decides to come on board.”
Rob Moore, associate director at E3G, said that whatever figure is agreed “will need to be the start and not the end” of climate cash promises.
“If developed countries can go further they need to say so fast to make sure we get a deal at COP29,” he said.
