What will become of the Lebanese displaced by intensifying Israel-Hezbollah conflict?

Highways from the south were clogged with traffic as civilians tried to escape Israel’s bombardment of Hezbollah. (AFP)
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Updated 25 September 2024
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What will become of the Lebanese displaced by intensifying Israel-Hezbollah conflict?

  • Israeli forces have struck multiple Hezbollah targets in recent days, forcing civilians in the south to flee northward
  • Hobbled by political deadlock and economic meltdown, Lebanon’s government is in no position to mount a significant relief effort

LONDON: Nearly half a million Lebanese civilians have been displaced from their homes in southern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley since Israel intensified its air campaign against the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia this week, raising the prospect of a major humanitarian emergency.

In a country already grappling with a profound economic crisis, the exodus of thousands of civilians from towns and villages bordering Israel is stretching Lebanon’s limited resources and further destabilizing its fragile society.

The most pressing question on the minds of those fleeing, however, is whether their displacement will be temporary or permanent.




Areas such as Tyre, Sidon and Nabatiyeh have experienced a mass exodus. (AFP)

Indeed, villages closest to the border have been the most heavily damaged, with entire areas reduced to rubble. Israeli forces have been accused of creating a “dead zone” as a buffer between the two countries.

“We don’t think this is going to last only for a short duration,” Tania Baban, Lebanon country director of the US-based charity MedGlobal, told Arab News. “Some people may not be able to go home if their home is no longer standing.”

Since Hezbollah began rocketing northern Israel in solidarity with its Hamas allies following the Oct. 7 attack on Israel that triggered the war in Gaza, southern Lebanon has been transformed into a battleground, with Israel mounting retaliatory strikes.

The region, a stronghold for Hezbollah, has faced near daily bombardment, leaving towns and villages in ruins and devastating forests and farmland.

Lebanon’s foreign minister, Abdallah Bou Habib, has said that about 500,000 Lebanese have been displaced since Israel’s offensive against Hezbollah ramped up, with more than 110,000 fleeing prior to the recent escalation.

Areas such as Tyre, Sidon and Nabatiyeh have experienced a mass exodus. Some 70 percent of Tyre’s population has evacuated, according to the city’s mayor, Hassan Dbouk. “People could not tolerate it anymore,” he told the Washington Post.

Baban believes the official number of displaced is an underestimate. “We started distributing some much-needed basic items to the shelters on Tuesday, such as mattresses, towels, pillows, water and personal hygiene kits,” she said.

“We went to several schools to get their information and do our assessment, and there were displaced people flooding in, and this is only in Beirut.

“They’re mostly from the south. I’m sure Bekaa as well, but we don’t have those types of details yet, because people are still flooding in.”




The exodus of thousands of civilians from towns and villages bordering Israel is stretching Lebanon’s limited resources. (AFP)

Safa Kosaibani, 21, who fled from Nabatiyeh to the coastal city of Sidon with her daughters and sisters-in-law, said that she heard Israel was telling civilians to leave southern Lebanon, but did not trust the warnings.

“We thought it was just psychological warfare,” she told the Washington Post. “That they were just trying to push us to leave our land, because we pushed them away from their land in the north. They want to do the same to us.”

An estimated 60,000 or so Israelis are internally displaced from the other side. On Sept. 17, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu updated his government’s war goals to include returning those people home.

Nour Hamad, a 22-year-old student in the Lebanese city of Baalbek, described living “in a state of terror” all week. “We spent four or five days without sleep, not knowing if we will wake up in the morning,” she told the AFP news agency.

“The sound of the bombardment is very frightening, everyone’s afraid. The children are afraid, and the grown-ups are afraid too.”




Israeli forces have struck multiple targets across Lebanon, leading to the death of almost 600 people, many of them civilians. (Reuters)

As civilians tried to escape the conflict zones this week, they found highways from the south clogged with traffic. Roads to safety were so busy that many spent 12 hours or more on a journey that previously took just one or two.

While some have found refuge with friends or relatives, the sheer volume of displaced people is overwhelming Lebanon’s capacity to provide accommodation, with schools, community centers and unfinished buildings quickly being converted into temporary shelters.

Lebanon’s government is in no position to mount a significant relief effort. In recent years, it has been paralyzed by political deadlock and financial collapse, with its currency losing more than 90 percent of its value.

“Lebanon has been dealing with multiple crises and has still not recovered from the devastating of the Aug. 4, 2020, Beirut port explosion, as well as the economic crisis that engulfed the country starting in late 2019,” Hovig Atamian, director of programs at CARE International in Lebanon, told Arab News.




About 500,000 Lebanese have been displaced since Israel’s offensive against Hezbollah ramped up, with more than 110,000 fleeing prior to the recent escalation. (Reuters)

“Humanitarian organizations have been preparing for the worst case scenario of a very significant escalation for months now, but the reality on the ground, including access constraints due to the security risks will always remain a challenge.

“We call on the parties to the conflict to uphold the provisions of international humanitarian law, including taking measures to avoid and minimize loss of civilian life, injury to civilians and damage to civilian objects as well as protecting all humanitarian personnel and operations.”

With international funding already stretched due to crises in Gaza, Ukraine and other conflict zones, there is a fear that Lebanon could be overlooked in terms of humanitarian assistance.

Imran Riza, the UN humanitarian coordinator for Lebanon, has allocated a $24 million emergency aid package from the Lebanon Humanitarian Fund to address the urgent needs of those impacted by the hostilities. Those needs are now likely to grow rapidly, however.

Lebanon is “grappling with multiple crises, which have overwhelmed the country’s capacity to cope,” Riza said in a statement.

“As the escalation of hostilities in south Lebanon drags on longer than we had hoped, it has led to further displacement and deepened the already critical needs.”




The Israel Defense Forces said on Tuesday that it had hit 1,500 “terrorist infrastructure targets in southern Lebanon and deep inside Lebanese territory.” (AFP)

Charities such as MedGlobal are now mobilizing to deliver essential items to the temporary shelters.

“We are going to distribute food that is pre-prepared, because they don’t have cooking supplies, but also mattresses, winterization kits, blankets — because winter is on the doorstep, so they need to be prepared,” Baban said.

“The people who are coming into the shelters, a lot of them are elderly people who left their medications, who left their money, who need to get their medicine for their chronic illnesses as well.

“We’re talking about diabetes, heart problems, hypertension, and some patients are on dialysis. Some patients are maybe on chemotherapy, and we haven’t even begun to speak about the risk of communicable diseases.

“These are going to be overcrowded school turned shelters and winters coming, and we haven’t even discussed flu, COVID-19 and all of that. So it’s a very grim situation.”




Synchronized Israeli attacks last week on Hezbollah’s communication devices, which killed 39 people and injured more than 3,000. (AP)

Israeli forces have struck multiple targets across Lebanon, leading to the death of almost 600 people, many of them civilians. The strikes followed a synchronized attack last week on Hezbollah’s communication devices, which killed 39 people and injured more than 3,000.

The Israel Defense Forces said on Tuesday that it had hit 1,500 “terrorist infrastructure targets in southern Lebanon and deep inside Lebanese territory.”

“Hezbollah today is not the same Hezbollah we knew a week ago,” Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said, claiming that the group “has suffered a sequence of blows to its command and control, its fighters, and the means to fight.”

INNUMBERS

• 500,000 People displaced across Lebanon. • 600 Fatalities, including 50 children and 94 women.

• 1,700 People injured by strikes across Lebanon.

• 60,000 Israelis evacuated from border areas since October.

The violence escalated on Wednesday when Hezbollah said it had launched a ballistic missile at Tel Aviv. Although Israel intercepted the missile, it represents an unprecedented move and a dangerous new phase in the conflict.

Early on Wednesday, Hezbollah confirmed that the commander of its missile unit, Ibrahim Muhammad Qubaisi, had been killed, hours after the Israeli military said that he had been “eliminated” in an airstrike on Ghobeiri in Beirut’s southern suburbs.




An estimated 60,000 or so Israelis are internally displaced from the other side. (AFP)

The escalation comes nearly a year after Hezbollah began launching attacks shortly after the Oct. 7 attack by the Palestinian militant group Hamas on southern Israel that killed about 1,200 people and saw 240 taken hostage.

Israel responded by invading the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip, leading to a conflict that has claimed more than 41,000 lives, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry.

Diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the Israeli-Hezbollah conflict have so far failed. US President Joe Biden, addressing the UN General Assembly on Tuesday, warned of the dangers of full-scale war in Lebanon, urging for restraint from all sides.




Since Hezbollah began rocketing northern Israel in solidarity with its Hamas allies following the Oct. 7 attack on Israel that triggered the war in Gaza, southern Lebanon has been transformed into a battleground, with Israel mounting retaliatory strikes. (Reuters)

“Full-scale war is not in anyone’s interest,” Biden said. “Even though the situation has escalated, a diplomatic solution is still possible.”

For Baban of MedGlobal, the unfolding humanitarian emergency could have serious implications for the wider region.

“Something needs to be done to stop this, to prevent this catastrophe from not only hitting Lebanon but becoming a regional catastrophe.”

 


226 health workers killed in Lebanon since Oct. 7: WHO

Updated 23 November 2024
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226 health workers killed in Lebanon since Oct. 7: WHO

  • Abubakar said: “A hallmark of the conflict in Lebanon is how destructive it has been to health care,” highlighting that 47 percent of these attacks “have proven fatal to at least one health worker or patient”

GENEVA: Nearly 230 health workers have been killed in Lebanon since the start of Israel’s war in Gaza following the Oct. 7 attacks last year, the World Health Organization said.
In total, the UN health agency said there had been 187 attacks on health care in Lebanon in the more than 13 months of cross-border fire between Israel and Hezbollah over the Gaza conflict.
Between Oct. 7, 2023 and Nov.18 this year, “we have 226 deaths and 199 injuries in total,” Abdinasir Abubakar, the WHO representative in Lebanon, said via video link from Beirut.
He said “almost 70 percent” of these had occurred since the tensions escalated into an all-out war in September.
Saying this was “an extremely worrying pattern,” he stressed that “depriving civilians of access to lifesaving care and targeting health providers is a breach of international humanitarian law.”
Abubakar said: “A hallmark of the conflict in Lebanon is how destructive it has been to health care,” highlighting that 47 percent of these attacks “have proven fatal to at least one health worker or patient” — the highest percentage of any active conflict today.
By comparison, Abubakar said that only 13.3 percent of attacks on health care globally had fatal outcomes during the same period, pointing to data from a range of conflict situations, including Ukraine, Sudan, and the occupied Palestinian territory.
He suggested the high percentage of fatal attacks on health care in Lebanon might be because “more ambulances have been targeted.”
“And whenever the ambulance is targeted, actually, then you will have three, four or five paramedics ... killed.”
The conflict has dealt a harsh blow to overall health care in Lebanon, which was already reeling from a string of dire crises in recent years.
The WHO warned that 15 of Lebanon’s 153 hospitals have ceased operating or are only partially functioning.
Hanan Balkhy, WHO’s regional director for the eastern Mediterranean region, stressed that “attacks on health care of this scale cripple a health system when those whose lives depend on it need it the most.”
“Beyond the loss of life, the death of health workers is a loss of years of investment and a crucial resource to a fragile country going forward.”

 


Little hope in Gaza that arrest warrants will cool Israeli onslaught

A Palestinian little girl queues for food in Deir al-Balah, Gaza Strip, Monday, Nov. 18, 2024. (AP)
Updated 22 November 2024
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Little hope in Gaza that arrest warrants will cool Israeli onslaught

  • An Israeli strike hit the Kamal Adwan Hospital in Beit Lahiya, one of three medical facilities barely operational in the area, injuring six medical staff, some critically, the Gaza health ministry said in a statement

GAZA: Gazans saw little hope on Friday that International Criminal Court arrest warrants for Israeli leaders would slow down the onslaught on the Palestinian territory, where medics said at least 21 people were killed in fresh Israeli military strikes.
In Gaza City in the north, an Israeli strike on a house in Shejaia killed eight people, medics said.
Three others were killed in a strike near a bakery, and a fisherman was killed as he set out to sea. In the central and southern areas, nine people were killed in three separate Israeli air strikes.

FASTFACT

Residents in the three besieged towns on Gaza’s northern edge — Jabalia, Beit Lahiya and Beit Hanoun — said Israeli forces had blown up dozens of houses.

Meanwhile, Israeli forces deepened their incursion and bombardment of the northern edge of the enclave, their main offensive since early last month.
The military claims it aims to prevent Hamas fighters from waging attacks and regrouping there; residents say they fear the aim is to permanently depopulate a strip of territory as a buffer zone, which Israel denies.
Residents in the three besieged towns on the northern edge — Jabalia, Beit Lahiya, and Beit Hanoun — said Israeli forces had blown up dozens of houses.
An Israeli strike hit the Kamal Adwan Hospital in Beit Lahiya, one of three medical facilities barely operational in the area, injuring six medical staff, some critically, the Gaza health ministry said in a statement.
“The strike also destroyed the hospital’s main generator and punctured the water tanks, leaving the hospital without oxygen or water, which threatens the lives of patients and staff inside the hospital,” it added.
It said 85 wounded people, including children and women, were inside, eight in the ICU.
Gazans saw the ICC’s decision to seek the arrest of Israeli leaders for suspected war crimes as international recognition of the enclave’s plight. But those queuing for bread at a bakery in the southern city of Khan Younis were doubtful it would have any impact.
“The decision will not be implemented because America protects Israel, and it can veto anything. Israel will not be held accountable,” said Saber Abu Ghali as he waited for his turn in the crowd.
Saeed Abu Youssef, 75, said that even if justice arrived, it would be decades late: “We have been hearing decisions for more than 76 years that have not been implemented and haven’t done anything for us.” Israel launched its assault on Gaza after militants stormed across the border fence, killed 1,200 people, and seized more than 250 hostages on Oct. 7, 2023.
Since then, nearly 44,000 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza, much of which has been laid to waste.
The court’s prosecutors said there were reasonable grounds to believe Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant were criminally responsible for acts including murder, persecution, and starvation as a weapon of war, as part of a “widespread and systematic attack against the civilian population of Gaza.”
Israeli politicians from across the political spectrum have denounced the ICC arrest warrants as biased and based on false evidence, and Israel says the court has no jurisdiction over the war.
Hamas hailed the arrest warrants as a first step toward justice.
Efforts by Arab mediators backed by the US to conclude a ceasefire deal have stalled.
Hamas wants a deal that ends the war, while Netanyahu has vowed the war can end only once Hamas is eradicated.


Turkiye dismisses two opposition mayors over ‘terrorism’

Updated 22 November 2024
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Turkiye dismisses two opposition mayors over ‘terrorism’

  • The mayors of Tunceli and Ovacik were each sentenced to six years and three months in prison this week for membership of the outlawed PKK
  • Both were replaced by state-appointed administrators

ISTANBUL: Two opposition mayors in eastern Turkiye have been removed from office after being convicted of “terrorism” for belonging to a banned Kurdish militant group, the interior minister said on Friday.
The mayors of Tunceli and Ovacik were each sentenced to six years and three months in prison this week for membership of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which has waged a guerilla insurgency against the Turkish state since 1984.
Both were replaced by state-appointed administrators, the interior ministry said in a statement, in the latest ousting of politicians associated with Turkiye’s Kurdish minority.
Tunceli’s deposed mayor Cevdet Konak, is a member of Turkiye’s main pro-Kurdish party.
The Peoples’ Equality and Democracy party is regularly targeted by the authorities which accuse it of having links to the PKK, which is classified as a terrorist group by Ankara and its Western allies.
Ovacik’s deposed mayor Mustafa Sarigul is affiliated with the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), which came out on top in local elections held at the end of March.
Both Konak and Sarigul told local press on Thursday that the accusations against them were unfounded.
Angry protesters gathered Friday evening in front of Tunceli city hall, where some people tried to force their way through a police cordon, according to images published by several local media groups.
In late October and early November, the pro-Kurdish mayors of three towns in Turkiye’s Kurdish-majority southeast, as well the CHP mayor of Istanbul’s most populous district, were likewise dismissed on “terrorism” charges.
Their dismissals sparked protests and were condemned by the Council of Europe and human rights organizations.
Konak’s party condemned late Friday the dismissal of both mayors, saying that “the government is slowly destroying the will of the people.”
Meanwhile, CHP party leader Ozgur Ozel denounced the “theft of the will of the nation.”


4 Italian UN peacekeepers injured by rocket attack in Lebanon

Updated 22 November 2024
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4 Italian UN peacekeepers injured by rocket attack in Lebanon

  • Israeli forces continue to pound targets in southern Lebanon and suburbs of Beirut
  • Paramedics and health facilities among those attacked; women and infants among dead as searches for victims buried in rubble continue

BEIRUT: At least five medical workers were reported dead on Friday as Israeli forces continued to pound targets in southern Lebanon and the outskirts of Beirut.

The attacks intensified after US envoy Amos Hochstein left Tel Aviv on Thursday evening and returned to Washington after discussions with Israeli authorities. This followed his talks with Lebanese officials on Tuesday and Wednesday about a proposed diplomatic solution to the conflict in Lebanon between the Israeli army and Hezbollah, which marked its 52nd day on Friday. Hochstein did not disclose the outcome of the discussions.

On Friday, the UN Interim Force in Lebanon’s Italian unit reported that four of its soldiers were injured when two rockets struck their headquarters in the western sector, in Shamaa. Tasked with monitoring the Blue Line that separates Lebanon from Israel, UNIFIL’s 10,000 peacekeepers have repeatedly come under fire during the conflict.

Italy’s prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, expressed her “deep indignation and concern” over “new attacks suffered by the Italian headquarters of UNIFIL in southern Lebanon.” She said “these attacks are unacceptable” and called on “the parties on the ground to guarantee, at all times, the safety of UNIFIL soldiers and to collaborate to identify those responsible quickly.”

UNIFIL said “two 122 mm rockets struck the Sector West headquarters” in Shamaa, about 5 kilometers from the Israeli border. The area has been a battleground for about a week. The injuries to the peacekeepers were not life-threatening and they were receiving treatment at the base’s hospital.

“UNIFIL strongly urges combating parties to avoid fighting next to its positions,” the force added.

Hezbollah said its fighters targeted Israeli troops in Shamaa with a salvo of rockets to prevent them from occupying the area. Israeli forces had advanced into the area over the previous two days and attempted further incursions toward the coastal town of Bayada, between Naqoura and Tyre.

Italy’s defense minister, Guido Crosetto, said he had contacted his Lebanese counterpart “reiterating that the Italian contingent of UNIFIL remains in southern Lebanon to offer a window of opportunity for peace, and cannot become hostage to attacks by militias.”

Also on Friday, the Israeli army carried out airstrikes on Beirut’s suburbs, targeting buildings in Ain Al-Remmaneh, a predominantly Christian area adjacent to Chiyah.

Israeli forces also continued their attempts to advance into southern towns. A force entered Deir Mimas, beyond the border town of Kfarkela, where it ordered eight families still residing there to remain in their homes.

Deir Mimas is in the Marjayoun district of Nabatiyeh Governorate, about 90 kilometers from Beirut. Its mayor, George Nakad, confirmed “the incursion” and said soldiers had entered it from Kfarkela, through olive fields.

Photos circulating on social media appeared to show Israeli tanks crossing the Litani road at the Qlayaa-Deir Mimas-Burj Al-Molouk triangle, supported by aerial cover and airstrikes on southern regions.

Elsewhere, Hezbollah said it targeted an Israeli Merkava tank with a guided missile south of the town of Khiam, which the Israeli army entered on Thursday. The tank was destroyed and its crew killed or injured, it added.

Israel on Friday intensified its reconnaissance flights over Lebanese regions exposed to airstrikes. Before 7 a.m., Israeli evacuation warnings circulated on social media ahead of strikes on parts of Hadath, Haret Hreik and Kafaat in the southern suburbs of Beirut.

About 30 minutes later, airstrikes hit residential buildings, one of which was located near the Lebanese University campus. Thick black smoke blanketed the area and the smell of gunpowder and other substances spread through neighborhoods, with reports of breathing problems and eye irritation.

Less than four hours later, Israeli forces issued a warning to residents of the Chiyah and Ain Al-Remaneh areas, and then targeted two residential buildings that also housed a medical laboratory, a gym, hair salons, beauty clinics, and clothes and fishing-tackle shops. One building was destroyed, the other cut in half.

The Israeli warnings sparked mass hysteria and displacement of the local population in Ain Al-Remaneh. Residents of Chiyah joined the exodus. Clashes were reported among the crowds after some blamed Hezbollah for the conflict. Six Israeli raids on the areas had taken place as of noon on Friday. The previous day, parts of the southern suburbs were hit intermittently by more than 10 Israeli air attacks.

In southern Lebanon, meanwhile, Israeli forces once again targeted ambulances belonging to Hezbollah’s Islamic Health Organization, which they said were were being used to “transport militants or weapons.” An attack on one of the organization’s ambulances at Deir Qanun junction, Ras Al-Ain, killed the paramedics inside.

The Lebanese Ministry of Health said Israel forces were targeting paramedics and medical facilities in the south in violation of international laws and norms and humanitarian laws.

Israel also targeted villages in the deep south, including Ghaziyeh and areas in the vicinity of Sidon, with heavy attacks that reportedly resulted in casualties and great destruction.

Meanwhile, search operations continued to find bodies under the rubble of houses and other buildings damaged or destroyed by Israeli attacks. Raids on southern villages, including Kafr Rumman, have resulted in seven confirmed deaths and one injury.

Four bodies were found under the rubble in Arabsalim. In Bekaa, several members of one family, including women and children, were killed by Israeli attacks on the village of Flawiye on Thursday. One person was reported missing. Eleven people from several families, including infants, were killed in attacks on Nabha.

Attacks on targets in northern Bekaa reached a peak on Thursday night, with 18 raids that killed 17 people in Baalbek, Maqneh, Younine, Beit Mchik, Brital and Hosh Al-Rafika.

Lebanese residents in areas stretching from Beirut to the Bekaa Valley and northern regions were alarmed on Friday morning by suspicious calls urging them to evacuate their homes. The calls sparked panic for a second consecutive day among people in several areas, including hotel guests in Beirut's Raouche district, residents of villages in Zgharta, and people in the village of Bebnine in Akkar, in the far north of the country

Others who received calls included residents of Beirut and its northern and eastern suburbs, including Furn El-Chebbak, Dekwaneh, Mar Roukoz, Burj Abi Haidar, Basta, Ras El-Nabeh, Bchamoun, Choueifat, and as far as Jbeil.

Hezbollah on Friday reaffirmed its ability to maintain its attacking threat and said it had targeted several locations in northern Israel. They included the settlement of Kiryat Shmona, the Haifa technical base about 35 kilometers from the border, and an Israeli early-warning and intelligence center linked to the 210th Golan Division on the summit of Mount Hermon in the occupied Syrian Golan. The Dovev barracks and a gathering of Israeli forces in the Manara settlement were also attacked.

Across Lebanon on Friday, national flags were raised at official institutions to mark the 81st anniversary of the country’s independence. In hundreds of shelters, children from displaced families sang the Lebanese national anthem, and some young people symbolically hoisted flags over the rubble in areas ravaged by recent attacks.

The speaker of the Lebanese parliament, Nabih Berri, described this year’s anniversary of independence as “a somber occasion, yet a reminder of the daily challenge to persevere, to uphold national unity, and to protect every inch of our homeland — south, north, east and sea — without surrender or despair.”

 


UN warns some who fled to Syria risking lives to return to Lebanon

Updated 22 November 2024
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UN warns some who fled to Syria risking lives to return to Lebanon

  • Gonzalo Vargas Llosa, the UN refugee agency’s representative in Syria, said: “These are very, very small numbers, but for us, even small numbers are worrying signals“
  • The UNHCR estimates that around 560,000 people have fled into Syria from neighboring Lebanon since late September

GENEVA: The UN voiced concern Friday that conditions were so dire in Syria that some Lebanese residents who had fled there seeking refuge from the Israel-Hezbollah war were opting to return to Lebanon.
There are “Lebanese families who are beginning to take the very difficult and potentially life-threatening decision to return to Lebanon,” said Gonzalo Vargas Llosa, the United Nations refugee agency’s representative in Syria.
“These are very, very small numbers, but for us, even small numbers are worrying signals,” he told reporters in Geneva via video link from the Syrian-Lebanese border.
The UNHCR estimates that around 560,000 people have fled into Syria from neighboring Lebanon since late September, when months of cross-border fire between Israel and Hezbollah over the war in Gaza escalated into all-out war.
Lebanese authorities put the number even higher, at more than 610,000.
Vargas Llosa said that around 65 percent of those crossing into Syria — itself torn apart by 13 years of civil war — were Syrian nationals who had sought refuge in Lebanon from that conflict.
He pointed out that from 2017 up to September 23 this year, around 400,000 Syrians had returned to their country from Lebanon.
“We have had more or less the same number... in a period of seven to eight weeks,” he said, adding that some 150,000 Lebanese had also arrived in Syria during that period.
He hailed the “exemplary” and “extraordinary display of generosity” shown toward those arriving by communities across Syria, “whose infrastructure is destroyed, whose economy is destroyed.”
But he warned that given Syria’s own “catastrophic economic situation... it is unclear for how long this generosity will last.”
Worrying signs were already emerging, he said, pointing to the admittedly small numbers of people who were opting to return to Lebanon despite the risks.
UNHCR said that “on average up to 50 Lebanese individuals per day” were crossing back into Lebanon.
They were leaving because they thought “the conditions in Syria are appalling, and that they may be better off in Lebanon, in spite of the bombings,” Vargas Llosa said.
Back in Lebanon, they might have better support systems, easier access to services and even the ability to generate a little income, he said.
He warned that “unless there is a real injection of international support... this number of Lebanese choosing to return home to these extraordinarily difficult circumstances may grow in the coming weeks and months.”
“This would be extremely worrying.”
There were even some Syrian returnees who were opting to once again cross back into Lebanon, “primarily because of the extraordinarily dire economic conditions here in Syria,” Vargas Llosa said.
In the meantime, he said that there had recently been “an important decrease in the pace of arrivals” into Syria, from a peak of 10,000-15,000 per day to an average now of about 2,000.
Vargas Llosa charged that this was likely linked to Israel’s repeated bombings of border crossings.
“Syrians and Lebanese are very scared of using these escape routes,” he said, appealing to the Israeli military to “immediately stop these unacceptable attacks.”