Saudi banks positioned for 2025 profit growth amid interest rate cuts: Report

Saudi banks are sustaining stable asset quality, with Stage 1 or good loans increasing to 93.4 percent in the first half of the year. Shutterstock
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Updated 27 September 2024
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Saudi banks positioned for 2025 profit growth amid interest rate cuts: Report

RIYADH: Saudi banks are poised for a significant increase in profit margins in early 2025, driven by anticipated interest rate cuts that are expected to position them favorably against their Gulf counterparts.

A recent report from Bloomberg Intelligence highlighted the strengths of the Kingdom’s financial institutions, pointing out that they enjoy higher valuations primarily due to their reduced exposure to volatile markets.

Their conservative leverage not only positions them favorably but also allows for a strategic increase in profitability as interest rates decline.

Moreover, their adept management of the tax landscape enhances their competitive edge compared to other Gulf nations.

In addition to these factors, Saudi Arabia’s substantial role in a $2 trillion construction pipeline in the Middle East and North Africa region, which accounts for 34 percent of the total, indicates that the country’s banks will increasingly need to secure funding to support a variety of ongoing projects.

Following the US Federal Reserve’s decision on Sep. 18, the central banks of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Bahrain reduced their interest rates by 50 basis points, with Qatar cutting its deposit, lending, and repo rates by 55 basis points.  

This change signaled a shift in US monetary policy after two years of rate hikes aimed at controlling inflation.

Central banks within the Gulf Cooperation Council, including Saudi Arabia, typically align their policies with the Fed due to the peg of their currencies to the US dollar.

The analysts in the report predict that the Federal Reserve will implement a series of interest rate cuts, starting with a 50 basis point reduction in September, followed by 25 basis point cuts in the subsequent two meetings. This would total a reduction of 100 basis points for the year.

The reduction in interest rates is expected to support Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 projects and further accelerate non-oil activities. Businesses in capital-intensive sectors such as real estate, construction, and infrastructure are likely to benefit from cheaper credit, facilitating more aggressive expansion and investment opportunities.

Impact of oil price and government spending

The valuation of Gulf banks is influenced by several key factors, particularly oil prices and regional spending, according to the report. An average price of $80 per barrel is essential for maintaining liquidity in the Gulf banking sector, as it supports the economic stability and cash flow necessary for banking operations.

For Saudi Arabia, achieving budget balance requires an oil price of $108 per barrel, largely due to a substantial increase in public expenditure, which rose by $111 billion from 2016 to 2023. Including investments by the sovereign wealth fund in domestic projects, total spending has increased by $148 billion.

This spending surge is associated with various government initiatives aimed at promoting social and economic development. MEED’s July data reveals that Saudi Arabia leads with a project value of $680 billion within a $2 trillion construction pipeline set for the next five years, excluding energy-related projects.

The Public Investment Fund of Saudi Arabia, valued at $925 billion, reported a 29 percent increase in assets, reaching SR2.87 trillion ($765.2 billion) in 2023.

This growth is largely attributed to a strong emphasis on local investments. Allocations for domestic infrastructure and real estate development rose by 15 percent year-over-year to SR233 billion, while foreign investments increased by 14 percent to SR586 billion.

Simultaneously, the Saudi government has introduced new laws and reforms to stimulate and mandate domestic investment, aligning with its Vision 2030 initiative to diversify the oil-dependent economy.

With plans to invest approximately $680 billion in construction projects over the next five years, banks may need around $400 billion to finance 60 percent of this pipeline, relying on a mix of deposits and additional debt issuance.

Funding the growth

As reported by Bloomberg Intelligence, Saudi banks have issued $13 billion in debt by August, with $6 billion of that coming from sources excluding the Saudi National Bank’s certificates of deposits issued in Singapore. This amount surpasses the $11 billion in debt issued by UAE banks during the same timeframe.

Total debt issuance from Saudi banks is projected to reach at least $15 billion annually, supported by a diversified funding strategy that includes up to 15 percent from wholesale funding.

The last instance of Saudi banks outperforming UAE banks in debt issuance was in 2022, when tight liquidity and increased capital demand, particularly from the mortgage sector, were prevalent.

Bloomberg Intelligence noted that Saudi banks’ debt offerings are 3.7 times oversubscribed, compared to three times for their UAE counterparts. This indicates strong investor confidence and ample market liquidity, enabling Saudi banks to secure the necessary capital for expansion as the nation advances its Vision 2030 initiatives.

However, the report also pointed out a challenge: Saudi banks are dealing with a $4 billion currency mismatch, meaning they may have borrowed in one currency while managing assets or revenues in another, exposing them to financial risks from fluctuating exchange rates.

Moreover, heightened competition among Saudi banks has led to narrower spreads on corporate loans, making it challenging to impose higher rates. Although declining interest rates may improve these spreads, the high costs of liabilities compel banks to seek additional strategies to enhance the profitability of their corporate lending.

Shift to sustainable funding

Saudi banks primarily rely on wholesale funding from other banks and financial institutions; however, this source is deemed unreliable for long-term obligations, particularly those in foreign currencies.

Consequently, the report emphasizes the urgent need for Saudi banks to secure more stable, long-term funding options to support their operations and growth.

According to Bloomberg Intelligence, the share of wholesale funding in Saudi banks’ balance sheets has decreased from 15 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023 to 14 percent in June, signaling a shift in how banks are managing liquidity needs and reducing reliance on short-term interbank borrowing.

Additionally, UAE banks have extended liquidity support to Saudi banks through interest-bearing deposits, showcasing cross-border financial collaboration.

While unsecured debt constitutes only 3 percent of the banks’ assets, this figure has risen due to record debt issuance this year. This suggests that although Saudi banks are working to expand their debt profiles, a significant portion of their funding remains secured.

Furthermore, Tier 1 capital represents 2 percent of the balance sheet, indicating a stable capital position relative to total assets. Notably, Al Rajhi Bank and Alinma Bank have received considerable amounts in time deposits from other banks, which suggests variability in the amounts they can secure over time despite their engagement with wholesale funding.

Asset quality and profitability

Saudi banks are sustaining stable asset quality, with Stage 1 or good loans increasing to 93.4 percent in the first half of the year, up from 92.8 percent in 2023. This improvement is attributed to strong new loan origination.

The report indicated that write-offs and recoveries surged, peaking at SR6 billion in the fourth quarter, resulting in a decline of Stage 3 or bad loans to just 1.6 percent.

To mitigate potential risks, banks are bolstering their provision buffers, with coverage for Stage 1 loans rising to 45 basis points. The cost of risk improved to 34 basis points in the second quarter, exceeding expectations; however, it may increase in the latter half of the year if recovery trends falter.

In contrast, UAE banks, which experienced a significant boost in profitability last year, are likely to face a rise in their cost of risk as they adapt to a new corporate tax structure while striving to maintain their performance levels.

The introduction of a 9 percent tax, projected to increase to 15 percent in 2025, along with the potential for higher provisioning requirements in the future, presents challenges for these banks.

Saudi banks, on the other hand, are already subject to a 10 percent zakat tax but operate with lower leverage compared to their UAE counterparts. This reduced leverage positions Saudi banks favorably to enhance their return on equity if interest rates decrease.

While UAE banks managed to soften the impact of the corporate tax in their second-quarter financial results, their margins are under pressure, raising concerns about their loan recovery capabilities, which could affect bad-loan ratios.

According to Bloomberg Intelligence, Qatari banks are expected to maintain relatively stable margins, but their exposure to the real estate sector presents a risk to asset quality. A recovery in this sector could serve as a significant catalyst for enhancing overall stability and performance.

Fitch Ratings reported in August that the operating environment for Saudi banks is favorable, assigning them a score of bbb+, the highest among the banking sectors in the GCC.

This score is one notch above the ratings of its closest peers— UAE, Qatar, and Kuwait— and represents the highest score awarded by Fitch globally to emerging market banking sectors.

Fitch anticipated that Saudi banks will continue to grow at roughly double the average rate of the GCC, with projected financing growth of about 12 percent for 2024, compared to 11 percent in 2023.


Closing Bell: Saudi benchmark index edges higher to close at 10,974

Updated 25 June 2025
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Closing Bell: Saudi benchmark index edges higher to close at 10,974

  • MSCI Tadawul 30 Index rose 0.06% to 1,407.47
  • Parallel market Nomu lost 0.05% to close at 26,837.30

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s main stock index closed slightly higher on Wednesday, as gains in select industrial and infrastructure stocks offset broader market weakness.

The Tadawul All Share Index added 9.7 points, or 0.09 percent, finishing the session at 10,973.98. Total trading turnover was SR6.10 billion ($1.62 billion), with 180 stocks advancing while 66 declined.

The MSCI Tadawul 30 Index also recorded a modest gain, rising 0.06 percent to 1,407.47.

In contrast, the parallel market Nomu dipped slightly, losing 13.49 points, or 0.05 percent, to close at 26,837.30. A total of 35 stocks posted gains on Nomu, while 45 ended in the red.

Sustained Infrastructure Holding Co. led the market with a sharp 9.89 percent increase to SR30.55, followed by Saudi Printing and Packaging Co., which rose 9.83 percent to SR11.84. Saudi Arabia Refineries Co. also saw strong momentum, climbing 5.48 percent to a new yearly high of SR63.50.

Among the session’s notable losers, Specialized Medical Co. dropped 3.36 percent to SR24.16, Zamil Industrial Investment Co. slipped 2.29 percent to SR40.60, and Arabian Contracting Services Co. fell 2.12 percent to SR96.90.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabian Mining Co., known as Ma’aden, received shareholder approval to raise its capital from SR38.03 billion to SR38.89 billion during its extraordinary general assembly meeting held on June 24. The 2.26 percent increase will lift the number of issued ordinary shares from 3.80 billion to 3.89 billion.

According to a company disclosure on the Saudi Exchange, the capital hike will be carried out through the issuance of 85.98 million new ordinary shares at a par value of SR10. These shares will be allocated as part of an acquisition agreement to purchase full ownership of two subsidiaries: Ma’aden Bauxite and Alumina Co. and Ma’aden Aluminium Co.

Under the transaction, Ma’aden will acquire all 128.01 million shares held by AWA Saudi in the bauxite firm, representing 25.1 percent of its capital, along with 165 million shares held by Alcoa Saudi in the aluminum unit—also a 25.1 percent stake.

Shares of Ma’aden rose 0.2 percent to end the day at SR50.70.

Red Sea International Co. also announced plans to publicly list its subsidiary, Fundamental Installation for Electric Work Co. Ltd., subject to regulatory and shareholder approval. The decision was approved by the board in a resolution passed on June 23 and implemented the following day.

While Red Sea International will not offer any of its own shares in the IPO, the move is considered a significant transaction due to the subsidiary’s strategic role in the group’s operations. The company’s stock rose 0.12 percent to close at SR42.50.


Saudi Arabia’s non-oil exports climb 24.6% in April: GASTAT 

Updated 25 June 2025
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Saudi Arabia’s non-oil exports climb 24.6% in April: GASTAT 

  • National non-oil exports — excluding re-exports — grew 6.8%
  • Machinery, electrical equipment, and parts accounted for 27.7% of total imports

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s non-oil exports saw an annual rise of 24.6 percent in April, reaching SR28.36 billion ($7.56 billion) thanks to a sharp increase in re-exports and a strong performance in chemicals and plastics.

According to data released by the General Authority for Statistics, national non-oil exports — excluding re-exports — grew 6.8 percent during the month, while the value of re-exported goods increased 72 percent. 

Saudi Arabia’s non-oil exports hit a record SR515 billion ($137 billion) in 2024, up 13 percent from 2023 and over 113 percent since the launch of Vision 2030 in 2016, which aims to diversify the Kingdom’s economy and reduce its dependence on oil by expanding industrial, mining, and service sectors. 

The strong non-oil export performance comes as the World Bank projects Gulf economic growth to accelerate to 3.2 percent in 2025 and 4.5 percent in 2026, driven by the rollback of OPEC+ oil production cuts and continued momentum in non-oil sectors.

In its latest release, GASTAT stated: “Among the most important non-oil exports are plastics, rubber, and their products, which constituted 21.7 percent of total non-oil exports, recording a 4.0 percent increase compared to April 2024.” It added that chemical products followed at 21 percent of the total, with a 2.3 percent year-on-year increase.

The release stated that merchandise exports decreased by 10.9 percent in April compared to the same month of the previous year, as a result of a 21.2 percent decrease in oil exports. 

“Consequently, the percentage of oil exports out of total exports decreased from 77.5 percent in April 2024 to 68.6 percent in April 2025,” said the report. 

This led to a narrowing of the trade surplus by 61.7 percent compared to the same period last year

The ratio of non-oil exports, including re-exports, to imports rose to 37.2 percent in April, up from 35.4 percent a year earlier — largely due to the increases in non-oil exports and imports of 24.6 percent and 18.3 percent, respectively. 

On the import side, machinery, electrical equipment, and parts accounted for 27.7 percent of total imports, rising 25.4 percent year on year. Transportation equipment and parts followed at 17.2 percent, with a 64.5 percent surge.

China remained Saudi Arabia’s top export destination, accounting for 12.6 percent of the total in April. Japan ranked second at 10.1 percent, followed by the UAE at 9.8 percent.

Other key destinations included India, South Korea, and the US, as well as Egypt, Malta, Poland, and Bahrain — with exports to these 10 markets comprising 67.5 percent of total exports.

On the import front, China was also the top origin, representing 25 percent of the total, followed by the US at 7.5 percent and the UAE at 6.8 percent. 

Imports from India, Germany, and Japan, as well as Italy, Switzerland, the UK, and France, together made up 66.3 percent of the total.

In terms of customs points, the King Abdulaziz Sea Port in Dammam handled 26 percent of total imports in April, followed by Jeddah Islamic Sea Port at 20.4 percent, King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh at 13.9 percent, King Abdulaziz International Airport at 12.6 percent, and King Fahd International Airport in Dammam at 5.7 percent. 

These five ports together accounted for 78.6 percent of total merchandise imports.

The strong performance in non-oil exports comes after Fitch Ratings in February affirmed Saudi Arabia’s long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating at ‘A+’ with a stable outlook, citing the Kingdom’s robust fiscal and external balance sheets. The agency also noted that Vision 2030 has played a central role in diversifying one of the Middle East’s strongest economies.


Education sector leads weekly POS surge with 666% value spike despite overall drop

Updated 25 June 2025
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Education sector leads weekly POS surge with 666% value spike despite overall drop

  • Spending on transportation increased by 28.7%
  • Construction and building materials saw a 25.6% uptick

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s point-of-sale spending in the education sector saw a weekly rise of 666 percent to reach SR193.26 million ($51.53 million) by June 21, according to official data.

The latest figures from the Saudi Central Bank, known as SAMA, also showed the number of POS transactions in the sector nearly doubled, climbing by 98.1 percent, indicating a significant rebound in consumer activity in this segment.

This sharp increase in educational spending came despite a 1.5 percent decline in the total value of POS transactions across the Kingdom, which dropped from SR11.1 billion to SR10.9 billion over the same period.

The weekly data further showed that transaction values rose in several other sectors, although none matched the scale of growth seen in the education division.

Spending on transportation increased by 28.7 percent, while construction and building materials saw a 25.6 percent uptick in value.

Telecommunication and health sectors both posted gains of 4.8 percent and 16.8 percent, respectively.

The electronics and electric devices segment recorded a 16.8 percent rise in spending value, and the furniture sector grew by 4.4 percent.

Slight increases were also observed in the public utilities and miscellaneous goods and services sectors, which grew by 3.5 percent and 2.1 percent, respectively.

However, several categories experienced downturns. The largest declines in transaction values were reported in the hotels and recreation and culture sectors, which fell by 9.1 percent and 14.7 percent, respectively.

Regionally, Riyadh remained the top city for POS spending, logging over SR3.91 billion in transactions, a 9.1 percent increase from the previous week. Dammam and Khobar also recorded gains, with spending in Dammam up by 8.4 percent and in Khobar by 5.1 percent.

Cities such as Makkah and Madinah recorded double-digit declines, down by 24.2 percent and 11.7 percent, respectively, in total POS transaction values.

Jeddah maintained a steady performance, with spending remaining flat at SR1.6 billion, while Tabuk saw a slight uptick of 3 percent in value.

Spending in restaurants and cafes dropped by 12.8 percent, while beverage and food transactions declined by 7.2 percent.

Jewelry purchases also contracted by 12.8 percent, and clothing and footwear fell by 7.2 percent. Other sectors, such as gas stations and the category, also saw declines of 5.1 percent.

Overall, the total number of POS transactions across all sectors dipped slightly by 0.6 percent week on week, totaling just over 202.5 million transactions during the reporting period.


Fitch affirms UAE’s ‘AA-’ rating on strong external buffers, fiscal prudence

Updated 25 June 2025
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Fitch affirms UAE’s ‘AA-’ rating on strong external buffers, fiscal prudence

  • Outlook benefits from Abu Dhabi’s sovereign net foreign assets — amounting to 157% of GDP
  • Fitch forecasts UAE GDP to grow by 5.2% in 2025

RIYADH: The UAE’s long-term foreign-currency rating has been affirmed at “AA-” with a stable outlook by Fitch, reflecting the country’s consolidated government debt, strong net external asset position, and high gross domestic product per capita. 

The US-based rating agency noted that this outlook benefits from Abu Dhabi’s sovereign net foreign assets — amounting to 157 percent of the UAE’s gross domestic product in 2024 — which rank among the highest of all Fitch-rated sovereigns. 

The agency noted the ongoing regional geopolitical risks, but it assumes the conflict involving Israel, the US, and Iran will be contained and short-lived. 

The report comes as Israel and Iran agreed to a ceasefire brokered by the US, which took effect on June 24, following 12 days of conflict that raised fears of a broader regional escalation. 

In its commentary, Fitch Ratings stated: “A regional conflagration would pose a risk to Abu Dhabi’s hydrocarbon infrastructure and to Dubai as a trade, tourism and financial hub,” 

Fitch estimated the UAE’s consolidated fiscal surplus stood at 7.1 percent of GDP in 2024, following a level of 8.6 percent in 2023. Shutterstock

It emphasized that “the UAE’s ratings could absorb some short-term disruptions given large fiscal and external buffers.” 

Fitch’s assessment follows S&P Global’s recent assignment of “AA/A‑1+” with a stable outlook for its foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings to the UAE, citing the country’s strong fiscal and external positions. 

The agency also noted that the UAE’s sizable asset cushion would help shield it from oil price volatility and regional geopolitical tensions. 

Fitch estimated the UAE’s consolidated fiscal surplus stood at 7.1 percent of GDP in 2024, following a level of 8.6 percent in 2023, with surpluses in Abu Dhabi and Dubai and budget deficits in Ras Al Khaimah and Sharjah. 

It projected a fiscal breakeven oil price of $45–$50 per barrel in 2025 and 2026, excluding investment income, which Fitch attributed partly to “rising oil production volumes and the significant share of spending by GREs (government-related entities).” 

“We forecast the consolidated surplus at 5.3 percent of GDP in 2025 and 5.9 percent in 2026. Narrower deficits in Sharjah and higher oil production levels in Abu Dhabi will mitigate the forecast drop in oil prices from $79.5 per barrel in 2024 to $65/bbl in 2025 and 2026,” Fitch said. 

It added: “Dubai will retain a budget surplus.” 

With regard to the federal government’s budget, Fitch stated that it remains below 4 percent of GDP and is primarily focused on core services.

Despite moderate direct debt, Fitch views the UAE’s economy as highly leveraged. Shutterstock

The report emphasized that the federal budget must remain balanced by law, leaving limited scope for borrowing or adjustment. From 2026 onward, corporate tax revenue is expected to help offset reduced grants from Abu Dhabi. 

Despite moderate direct debt, Fitch views the UAE’s economy as highly leveraged. “We estimate overall contingent liabilities from GREs of the emirates and the FG in 2023 at about 62 percent of UAE 2023 GDP,” the report said, though it acknowledged that many state-owned entities are financially sound. 

Fitch forecasts UAE GDP to grow by 5.2 percent in 2025, supported by a 9 percent increase in oil production from Abu Dhabi and strong non-oil growth of over 4 percent, driven by investment and population expansion. However, it warned of risks from “lower oil prices and global growth uncertainties.” 

Earlier this month, the UAE Central Bank’s Quarterly Economic Review for December 2024 reported that the country’s GDP reached 1.77 trillion dirhams ($481.4 billion) in 2024, growing 4 percent. Non-oil sectors contributed 75.5 percent of the total — highlighting continued economic diversification. 

The central bank maintained its real GDP growth forecast at 4 percent for 2024, with an anticipated acceleration to 4.5 percent in 2025 and 5.5 percent in 2026. 

On governance, Fitch said the UAE maintains an ESG Relevance Score of “5[+]” for political stability, rule of law, and institutional quality.

The agency credited the UAE’s “record of domestic political stability, strong institutional capacity, effective rule of law and a low level of corruption,” referencing World Bank Governance Indicators, where the country ranks in the 70th percentile.


Lebanon’s economy to benefit from World Bank’s $250m recovery boost

Updated 25 June 2025
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Lebanon’s economy to benefit from World Bank’s $250m recovery boost

JEDDAH: Lebanon’s battered infrastructure and strained public services are set for a boost, as the World Bank has approved $250 million to launch a broader $1 billion recovery and reconstruction initiative.

In a statement on Wednesday, the World Bank announced that its board of executive directors had approved the funding a day earlier under the Lebanon Emergency Assistance Project.

The project follows a phased approach to address response, recovery, and reconstruction, focusing on prioritizing and sequencing interventions to achieve maximum economic and social impact in the shortest possible time.

“The Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment of the impact of the conflict in Lebanon between Oct. 8, 2023, and Dec. 20, 2024, estimated total direct damages across 10 sectors at $7.2 billion, and reconstruction and recovery needs at $11 billion,” the bank said in its press release.

It added that around $1.1 billion in damage had been sustained by key infrastructure and facilities vital to public well-being and economic activity. Affected sectors include transportation, energy, water, healthcare, education, and municipal services.

“Considering the scale of needs, the LEAP was designed to support restoration of public infrastructure and buildings, given this is a precondition to economic and social recovery,” the release explained.

According to a separate World Bank report released earlier this month, Lebanon’s cumulative gross domestic product had contracted by nearly 40 percent since 2019. Meanwhile, the Lebanese pound has lost more than 98 percent of its value, driving triple-digit inflation through 2023.

The study highlighted how the collapse of the banking sector and the currency’s crash turned Lebanon into a dollarized, cash-based economy worth $9.8 billion — about 45.7 percent of GDP in 2022.

“The conflict has introduced another shock to Lebanon’s already crisis-ridden economy. While the economic contraction was anticipated to bottom out in 2023, following five years of sustained sharp contraction, the conflict and its spillovers have had negative knock-on effects on economic growth in 2023, continuing into 2024,” the report said.

It further noted that since July 2023, the Lebanese pound has stabilized at 89,500 to the US dollar, which helped bring inflation down to double digits in 2024 for the first time since March 2020, following three consecutive years of triple-digit inflation.

Lebanon’s Prime Minister Nawaf Salam welcomed the news on social media, writing on his X account: “I welcome the World Bank Board’s approval of the $250 million Lebanon Emergency Assistance Project, which represents a key step toward reconstruction by addressing damage to critical infrastructure and essential services in areas affected by the conflict.”

He added that the assistance reinforces national recovery efforts within a government-led implementation framework and paves the way for attracting further much-needed financing.

Jean-Christophe Carret, the World Bank’s Middle East division director, said: “Given Lebanon’s large reconstruction needs, the LEAP is structured as a $1 billion scalable framework with an initial $250 million contribution from the World Bank and the ability to efficiently absorb additional financing — whether grants or loans — under a unified, government-led implementation structure that emphasizes transparency, accountability, and results.”

Carret noted that the framework offers a credible platform for development partners to align their support with Lebanon’s reform agenda and amplify the impact of long-term recovery efforts.

According to the statement, the financing will enable immediate interventions to fast-track recovery and return to normalcy. This includes the safe and efficient handling of rubble to maximize recycling and reuse.

To ensure timely implementation, the government has undertaken key reforms within the project’s implementing body, the Council for Development and Reconstruction, the statement said.

It added that LEAP will be carried out under the strategic guidance of the prime minister’s office, with coordination across relevant ministries through the Council of Ministers. The Ministry of Public Works and Transport will oversee project implementation, while the Ministry of Environment will monitor environmental and social compliance, including rubble management.