Saudi banks positioned for 2025 profit growth amid interest rate cuts: Report

Saudi banks are sustaining stable asset quality, with Stage 1 or good loans increasing to 93.4 percent in the first half of the year. Shutterstock
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Updated 27 September 2024
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Saudi banks positioned for 2025 profit growth amid interest rate cuts: Report

RIYADH: Saudi banks are poised for a significant increase in profit margins in early 2025, driven by anticipated interest rate cuts that are expected to position them favorably against their Gulf counterparts.

A recent report from Bloomberg Intelligence highlighted the strengths of the Kingdom’s financial institutions, pointing out that they enjoy higher valuations primarily due to their reduced exposure to volatile markets.

Their conservative leverage not only positions them favorably but also allows for a strategic increase in profitability as interest rates decline.

Moreover, their adept management of the tax landscape enhances their competitive edge compared to other Gulf nations.

In addition to these factors, Saudi Arabia’s substantial role in a $2 trillion construction pipeline in the Middle East and North Africa region, which accounts for 34 percent of the total, indicates that the country’s banks will increasingly need to secure funding to support a variety of ongoing projects.

Following the US Federal Reserve’s decision on Sep. 18, the central banks of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Bahrain reduced their interest rates by 50 basis points, with Qatar cutting its deposit, lending, and repo rates by 55 basis points.  

This change signaled a shift in US monetary policy after two years of rate hikes aimed at controlling inflation.

Central banks within the Gulf Cooperation Council, including Saudi Arabia, typically align their policies with the Fed due to the peg of their currencies to the US dollar.

The analysts in the report predict that the Federal Reserve will implement a series of interest rate cuts, starting with a 50 basis point reduction in September, followed by 25 basis point cuts in the subsequent two meetings. This would total a reduction of 100 basis points for the year.

The reduction in interest rates is expected to support Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 projects and further accelerate non-oil activities. Businesses in capital-intensive sectors such as real estate, construction, and infrastructure are likely to benefit from cheaper credit, facilitating more aggressive expansion and investment opportunities.

Impact of oil price and government spending

The valuation of Gulf banks is influenced by several key factors, particularly oil prices and regional spending, according to the report. An average price of $80 per barrel is essential for maintaining liquidity in the Gulf banking sector, as it supports the economic stability and cash flow necessary for banking operations.

For Saudi Arabia, achieving budget balance requires an oil price of $108 per barrel, largely due to a substantial increase in public expenditure, which rose by $111 billion from 2016 to 2023. Including investments by the sovereign wealth fund in domestic projects, total spending has increased by $148 billion.

This spending surge is associated with various government initiatives aimed at promoting social and economic development. MEED’s July data reveals that Saudi Arabia leads with a project value of $680 billion within a $2 trillion construction pipeline set for the next five years, excluding energy-related projects.

The Public Investment Fund of Saudi Arabia, valued at $925 billion, reported a 29 percent increase in assets, reaching SR2.87 trillion ($765.2 billion) in 2023.

This growth is largely attributed to a strong emphasis on local investments. Allocations for domestic infrastructure and real estate development rose by 15 percent year-over-year to SR233 billion, while foreign investments increased by 14 percent to SR586 billion.

Simultaneously, the Saudi government has introduced new laws and reforms to stimulate and mandate domestic investment, aligning with its Vision 2030 initiative to diversify the oil-dependent economy.

With plans to invest approximately $680 billion in construction projects over the next five years, banks may need around $400 billion to finance 60 percent of this pipeline, relying on a mix of deposits and additional debt issuance.

Funding the growth

As reported by Bloomberg Intelligence, Saudi banks have issued $13 billion in debt by August, with $6 billion of that coming from sources excluding the Saudi National Bank’s certificates of deposits issued in Singapore. This amount surpasses the $11 billion in debt issued by UAE banks during the same timeframe.

Total debt issuance from Saudi banks is projected to reach at least $15 billion annually, supported by a diversified funding strategy that includes up to 15 percent from wholesale funding.

The last instance of Saudi banks outperforming UAE banks in debt issuance was in 2022, when tight liquidity and increased capital demand, particularly from the mortgage sector, were prevalent.

Bloomberg Intelligence noted that Saudi banks’ debt offerings are 3.7 times oversubscribed, compared to three times for their UAE counterparts. This indicates strong investor confidence and ample market liquidity, enabling Saudi banks to secure the necessary capital for expansion as the nation advances its Vision 2030 initiatives.

However, the report also pointed out a challenge: Saudi banks are dealing with a $4 billion currency mismatch, meaning they may have borrowed in one currency while managing assets or revenues in another, exposing them to financial risks from fluctuating exchange rates.

Moreover, heightened competition among Saudi banks has led to narrower spreads on corporate loans, making it challenging to impose higher rates. Although declining interest rates may improve these spreads, the high costs of liabilities compel banks to seek additional strategies to enhance the profitability of their corporate lending.

Shift to sustainable funding

Saudi banks primarily rely on wholesale funding from other banks and financial institutions; however, this source is deemed unreliable for long-term obligations, particularly those in foreign currencies.

Consequently, the report emphasizes the urgent need for Saudi banks to secure more stable, long-term funding options to support their operations and growth.

According to Bloomberg Intelligence, the share of wholesale funding in Saudi banks’ balance sheets has decreased from 15 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023 to 14 percent in June, signaling a shift in how banks are managing liquidity needs and reducing reliance on short-term interbank borrowing.

Additionally, UAE banks have extended liquidity support to Saudi banks through interest-bearing deposits, showcasing cross-border financial collaboration.

While unsecured debt constitutes only 3 percent of the banks’ assets, this figure has risen due to record debt issuance this year. This suggests that although Saudi banks are working to expand their debt profiles, a significant portion of their funding remains secured.

Furthermore, Tier 1 capital represents 2 percent of the balance sheet, indicating a stable capital position relative to total assets. Notably, Al Rajhi Bank and Alinma Bank have received considerable amounts in time deposits from other banks, which suggests variability in the amounts they can secure over time despite their engagement with wholesale funding.

Asset quality and profitability

Saudi banks are sustaining stable asset quality, with Stage 1 or good loans increasing to 93.4 percent in the first half of the year, up from 92.8 percent in 2023. This improvement is attributed to strong new loan origination.

The report indicated that write-offs and recoveries surged, peaking at SR6 billion in the fourth quarter, resulting in a decline of Stage 3 or bad loans to just 1.6 percent.

To mitigate potential risks, banks are bolstering their provision buffers, with coverage for Stage 1 loans rising to 45 basis points. The cost of risk improved to 34 basis points in the second quarter, exceeding expectations; however, it may increase in the latter half of the year if recovery trends falter.

In contrast, UAE banks, which experienced a significant boost in profitability last year, are likely to face a rise in their cost of risk as they adapt to a new corporate tax structure while striving to maintain their performance levels.

The introduction of a 9 percent tax, projected to increase to 15 percent in 2025, along with the potential for higher provisioning requirements in the future, presents challenges for these banks.

Saudi banks, on the other hand, are already subject to a 10 percent zakat tax but operate with lower leverage compared to their UAE counterparts. This reduced leverage positions Saudi banks favorably to enhance their return on equity if interest rates decrease.

While UAE banks managed to soften the impact of the corporate tax in their second-quarter financial results, their margins are under pressure, raising concerns about their loan recovery capabilities, which could affect bad-loan ratios.

According to Bloomberg Intelligence, Qatari banks are expected to maintain relatively stable margins, but their exposure to the real estate sector presents a risk to asset quality. A recovery in this sector could serve as a significant catalyst for enhancing overall stability and performance.

Fitch Ratings reported in August that the operating environment for Saudi banks is favorable, assigning them a score of bbb+, the highest among the banking sectors in the GCC.

This score is one notch above the ratings of its closest peers— UAE, Qatar, and Kuwait— and represents the highest score awarded by Fitch globally to emerging market banking sectors.

Fitch anticipated that Saudi banks will continue to grow at roughly double the average rate of the GCC, with projected financing growth of about 12 percent for 2024, compared to 11 percent in 2023.


Global Markets — stocks and dollar dip as Trump’s spending bill passes, trade deal deadline nears

Updated 04 July 2025
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Global Markets — stocks and dollar dip as Trump’s spending bill passes, trade deal deadline nears

LONDON: Stocks slipped on Friday as US President Donald Trump got his signature tax cut bill over the line and attention turned to his July 9 deadline for countries to secure trade deals with the world’s biggest economy.

The dollar also fell against major currencies with US markets already shut for the holiday-shortened week, as traders considered the impact of Trump’s sweeping spending bill which is expected to add an estimated $3.4 trillion to the national debt.

The pan-European STOXX 600 index fell 0.8 percent, driven in part by losses on spirits makers such as Pernod Ricard and Remy Cointreau after China said it would impose duties of up to 34.9 percent on brandy from the EU starting July 5.

US S&P 500 futures edged down 0.6 percent, following a 0.8 percent overnight advance for the cash index to a fresh all-time closing peak. Wall Street is closed on Friday for the Independence Day holiday.

Trump said Washington will start sending letters to countries on Friday specifying what tariff rates they will face on exports to the US, a clear shift from earlier pledges to strike scores of individual deals before a July 9 deadline when tariffs could rise sharply.

Investors are “now just waiting for July 9,” said Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG, with the market’s lack of optimism for trade deals responsible for some of the equity weakness in export-reliant Asia, particularly Japan and South Korea.

At the same time, investors cheered the surprisingly robust jobs report on Thursday, sending all three of the main US equity indexes climbing in a shortened session.

“The US economy is holding together better than most people expected, which suggests to me that markets can easily continue to do better (from here),” Sycamore said.

Following the close, the House narrowly approved Trump’s signature, 869-page bill, which averts the near-term prospect of a US government default but adds trillions to the national debt to fuel spending on border security and the military.

Trade the key focus in Asia

Trump said he expected “a couple” more trade agreements after announcing a deal with Vietnam on Wednesday to add to framework agreements with China and Britain as the only successes so far.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said earlier this week that a deal with India is close. However, progress on agreements with Japan and South Korea, once touted by the White House as likely to be among the earliest to be announced, appears to have broken down.

The US dollar index had its worst first half since 1973 as Trump’s chaotic roll-out of sweeping tariffs heightened concerns about the US economy and the safety of Treasuries, but had rallied 0.4 percent on Thursday before retracing some of those gains on Friday.

As of 2:00 p.m. Saudi time it was down 0.1 percent at 96.96.

The euro added 0.2 percent to $1.1773, while sterling held steady at $1.3662.

The US Treasury bond market is closed on Friday for the holiday, but 10-year yields rose 4.7 basis points to 4.34 percent, while the two-year yield jumped 9.3 bps to 3.882 percent.

Gold firmed 0.4 percent to $3,336 per ounce, on track for a weekly gain as investors again sought refuge in safe-haven assets due to concerns over the US’s fiscal position and tariffs.

Brent crude futures fell 64 cents to $68.17 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude likewise dropped 64 cents to $66.35, as Iran reaffirmed its commitment to nuclear non-proliferation. 


World food prices tick higher in June, led by meat and vegetable oils

Updated 04 July 2025
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World food prices tick higher in June, led by meat and vegetable oils

PARIS: Global food commodity prices edged higher in June, supported by higher meat, vegetable oil and dairy prices, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization has said.

The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in a basket of internationally traded food commodities, averaged 128 points in June, up 0.5 percent from May. The index stood 5.8 percent higher than a year ago, but remained 20.1 percent below its record high in March 2022.

The cereal price index fell 1.5 percent to 107.4 points, now 6.8 percent below a year ago, as global maize prices dropped sharply for a second month. Larger harvests and more export competition from Argentina and Brazil weighed on maize, while barley and sorghum also declined.

Wheat prices, however, rose due to weather concerns in Russia, the EU, and the US.

The vegetable oil price index rose 2.3 percent from May to 155.7 points, now 18.2 percent above its June 2024 level, led by higher palm, rapeseed, and soy oil prices.

Palm oil climbed nearly 5 percent from May on strong import demand, while soy oil was supported by expectations of higher demand from the biofuel sector following announcements of supportive policy measures in Brazil and the US.

Sugar prices dropped 5.2 percent from May to 103.7 points, the lowest since April 2021, reflecting improved supply prospects in Brazil, India, and Thailand.

Meat prices rose to a record 126.0 points, now 6.7 percent above June 2024, with all categories rising except poultry. Bovine meat set a new peak, reflecting tighter supplies from Brazil and strong demand from the US. Poultry prices continued to fall due to abundant Brazilian supplies.

The dairy price index edged up 0.5 percent from May to 154.4 points, marking a 20.7 percent annual increase.

In a separate report, the FAO forecast global cereal production in 2025 at a record 2.925 billion tonnes, 0.5 percent above its previous projection and 2.3 percent above the previous year.

The outlook could be affected by expected hot, dry conditions in parts of the Northern Hemisphere, particularly for maize with plantings almost complete. 


Saudi Arabia posts 4 years of VC growth despite global slowdown: report 

Updated 04 July 2025
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Saudi Arabia posts 4 years of VC growth despite global slowdown: report 

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia achieved four consecutive years of growth in venture capital relative to its economy, a feat unmatched among its peers, according to a new report.

Between 2020 and 2023, the Kingdom was the only large market in the sample to post uninterrupted annual gains in VC intensity, contrasting with the more episodic deal flow seen across Africa and parts of Southeast Asia, MAGNiTT’s recently published Macro Meets VC report stated. 

While 2024 saw a slight contraction in funding amid global tightening, Saudi Arabia’s multi-year upward trend signals a sustained commitment to innovation-led diversification.

The Kingdom is steadily consolidating its position as a model for policy-driven venture capital development in emerging markets as it seeks to diversify its economy in line with the Vision 2030 blueprint. 

“Saudi Arabia is becoming the model for long-term, policy-driven ecosystem building,” the report notes, highlighting that sovereign limited partners and local funds have been instrumental in buffering the Kingdom from some of the volatility that struck other emerging venture markets. 

Saudi Arabia’s policy momentum 

The MAGNiTT data revealed that Saudi Arabia recorded a five-year average VC-to-GDP ratio of 0.07 percent. 

Although this figure remains modest compared to more mature hubs like Singapore, its consistent upward movement underscores the growing depth of domestic capital formation. 

Beyond the headline ratios, the Kingdom’s strategic positioning has also come into sharper focus. Saudi Arabia, along with the UAE, is classified as a “Growth Market”— a designation that reflects not only a sizeable GDP and population but also the rising economic clout of local consumer and enterprise demand. 

With a GDP approaching $950 billion and a population exceeding 33 million, Saudi Arabia presents a significant scale advantage. 

According to MAGNiTT’s benchmarking, this size creates “natural expansion targets for startups moving beyond initial launch markets,” supporting both regional and international founders seeking to diversify beyond smaller ecosystems. 

MENA’s uneven progress 

Across the broader Middle East and North Africa region, venture capital activity has continued to evolve unevenly. 

The UAE has retained its reputation as a strategic innovation hub and one of the few “MEGA Markets” in the emerging world, boasting a five-year average VC-to-GDP ratio of 0.20 percent. 

This proportion — identical to Indonesia’s ratio — signifies robust venture activity relative to the economy’s size. 

Yet, while the UAE maintained this level, Saudi Arabia has seen more consistent growth in funding, a dynamic the report attributes to policy-led market development. 

In Egypt, VC has gained further traction over the period under review. Egypt achieved a 25 percent rise in total funding compared to the previous five-year average, lifting its VC-GDP ratio by 0.02 percentage points to 0.11 percent. 

Although Egypt’s overall economic constraints remain acute — GDP per capita still lags below $10,000 — the relative progress suggests improving investor confidence, particularly in fintech and e-commerce. 

However, the report cautions that deal flow in Egypt, much like in Nigeria, remains fragile and prone to episodic swings driven by a handful of large transactions. 

The macroeconomic context across MENA has also been influential. Elevated oil price volatility and the impact of the Israel–Iran conflict have created a challenging backdrop for policymakers. 

Brent crude surged more than 13 percent in a single day earlier in 2025, underscoring the region’s exposure to external shocks. 

Nevertheless, both Saudi Arabia and the UAE managed to maintain monetary policy stability in line with the US Federal Reserve’s cautious stance. 

Saudi Arabia kept its benchmark rate at 5.5 percent, supported by inflation trending around 2 percent, while the UAE held steady at 4.4 percent. 

These decisions reflected a delicate balance between containing price pressures and supporting economic diversification efforts. 

Overall, MENA’s five-year aggregate venture funding reached $12.52 billion. Although this total remains well below the levels seen in more mature regions, it represents a meaningful share of emerging markets capital. 

MENA also posted the highest deal count relative to its peers in Southeast Asia and Africa over the period, indicating a broader base of early-stage transactions even as late-stage funding remains more limited. 

The report emphasizes that expanding geographic and sectoral reach within MENA will be critical to boosting efficiency metrics. 

“VC remains heavily concentrated in a few sectors and cities,” the report observes, warning that without broader inclusion, capital intensity will struggle to match potential. 

Southeast Asia’s VC benchmark 

Beyond MENA, Southeast Asia’s ecosystem stands out as the most mature among emerging venture markets, driven primarily by Singapore’s exceptional performance. 

Over the 2020–2024 period, Singapore achieved a 5-year average VC-to-GDP ratio of 1.3 percent, surpassing not only all emerging markets but also developed economies such as the US, which registered 0.79 percent, and the UK, with 0.73 percent. 

Even with a 5.4 percent decline in total funding compared to the prior five years and a 0.19 percentage point drop in VC-GDP ratio, Singapore maintained unmatched capital efficiency. 

The report describes the city-state as “a benchmark for capital efficiency in venture ecosystems,” attributing this strength to strong regulatory frameworks, institutional capital participation, and a deep bench of experienced founders and investors. 

Indonesia, Southeast Asia’s largest economy, recorded total VC funding volumes nearly twice as large as Singapore’s over five years, but its relative VC-GDP ratio remained lower at 0.2 percent. 

This dynamic illustrates one of the report’s core findings: venture capital inflows correlate more strongly with GDP per capita than total GDP. 

In Indonesia’s case, while its GDP surpassed $1.2 trillion, GDP per capita hovered around $4,000, constraining purchasing power and, by extension, startup revenue potential. 

Thailand, meanwhile, reported funding gains due mainly to a single mega deal rather than systematic improvements in ecosystem depth. 

In Africa, Nigeria emerged as an unexpected bright spot in 2024, as a single major transaction lifted its VC-GDP ratio to 0.15 percent — the highest in the region for that year. 

However, this outlier result also revealed the episodic nature of capital deployment in developing markets. 

Kenya registered a relatively high five-year VC-GDP ratio of 0.3 percent, even as absolute funding volumes remained modest. 

The report notes that in low-GDP contexts, this ratio can overstate ecosystem maturity. 

South Africa and Egypt showed more modest growth trajectories, weighed down by persistent inflation, structural constraints, and capital scarcity. 

In aggregate, African economies continued to lag both Southeast Asia and MENA in total venture funding and deal velocity. 

Global challenges ahead 

Globally, the five years covered by the report were marked by intensifying volatility. 

High interest rates, trade tensions, and geopolitical uncertainty weighed on capital flows. 

The US Federal Reserve held its policy rate between 4.25 percent and 4.5 percent through mid-2025, citing “meaningful” inflation risks. 

The European Central Bank moved to lower its deposit rate to 2 percent, reflecting cooling inflation but acknowledging sluggish growth. 

The World Bank cut its global GDP forecast for 2025 to 2.3 percent, the weakest pace since the 2008 crisis, excluding recessions. 

These headwinds contributed to the decline in venture capital across most emerging markets in 2024. 

In response, sovereign capital and strategic investors have become increasingly important backstops. 

The report highlights that domestic capital formation in MENA has partially offset declining global risk appetite. 

However, these funds tend to be slower moving, more sector-concentrated, and less risk-tolerant than international investors. 

“Without renewed foreign inflows or regional exit pathways, deal velocity may remain muted into the second half of 2025,” the report warns. 

This environment is likely to force startups to extend runway and compel general partners to adopt more selective deployment strategies. 

Despite the challenges, the outlook for Saudi Arabia and other growth markets remains constructive over the medium term. 

The Kingdom’s policy clarity, deepening institutional capital pools, and Vision 2030 commitments create a foundation for continued expansion. 

As the report concludes: “High GDP markets like KSA and Indonesia trail in VC efficiency — suggesting capital underutilization.” 

Closing this gap between potential and realized funding will be the defining challenge for emerging ecosystems as they navigate a turbulent global landscape.


Oil Updates — crude falls as Iran affirms commitment to nuclear treaty

Updated 04 July 2025
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Oil Updates — crude falls as Iran affirms commitment to nuclear treaty

LONDON: Oil futures fell slightly on Friday after Iran reaffirmed its commitment to nuclear non-proliferation, while major producers from the OPEC+ group are set to agree to raise their output this weekend.

Brent crude futures were down 49 cents, or 0.71 percent, to $68.31 a barrel by 11:31 a.m. Saudi time, while US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 41 cents, or 0.61 percent, to $66.59.

Trade was thinned by the US Independence Day holiday.

US news website Axios reported on Thursday that the US was planning to meet with Iran next week to restart nuclear talks, while Iran Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Tehran remained committed to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

The US imposed fresh sanctions targeting Iran’s oil trade on Thursday.

Trump also said on Thursday that he would meet with representatives of Iran “if necessary.”

“Thursday’s news that the US is preparing to resume nuclear talks with Iran, and Araqchi’s clarification that cooperation with the UN atomic agency has not been halted considerably eases the threat of a fresh outbreak of hostilities,” said Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysis provider Vanda Insights.

Araqchi made the comments a day after Tehran enacted a law suspending cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency.

OPEC+, the world’s largest group of oil producers, is set to announce an increase of 411,000 bpd in production for August as it looks to regain market share, four delegates from the group told Reuters.

Meanwhile, uncertainty over US tariff policies resurfaced as the end of a 90-day pause on higher levy rates approaches.

Washington will start sending letters to countries on Friday specifying what tariff rates they will face on goods sent to the US, a clear shift from earlier pledges to strike scores of individual trade deals.

President Trump told reporters before departing for Iowa on Thursday that the letters would be sent to 10 countries at a time, laying out tariff rates of 20 percent to 30 percent.

Trump’s 90-day pause on higher US tariffs ends on July 9, and several large trading partners have yet to clinch trade deals, including the EU and Japan.

Separately, Barclays said it raised its Brent oil price forecast by $6 to $72 per barrel for 2025 and by $10 to $70 a barrel for 2026 on an improved outlook for demand. 


EV maker Lucid’s quarterly deliveries rise but miss estimates

Updated 03 July 2025
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EV maker Lucid’s quarterly deliveries rise but miss estimates

  • Lucid delivered 3,309 vehicles in the quarter ended June 30

LONDON: Electric automaker Lucid on Wednesday reported a 38 percent rise in second-quarter deliveries, which, however, missed Wall Street expectations amid economic uncertainty.

Demand for Lucid’s pricier luxury EVs have been softer as consumers, pressured by high interest rates, shift toward cheaper hybrid and gasoline-powered cars.

Lucid delivered 3,309 vehicles in the quarter ended June 30, compared with estimates of 3,611 vehicles, according to seven analysts polled by Visible Alpha. It had delivered 2,394 vehicles in the same period last year.

Saudi Arabia-backed Lucid produced 3,863 vehicles in the quarter, missing estimates of 4,305 units, but above the 2,110 vehicles made a year ago.

The company stuck to its annual production target in May, allaying investor worries about manufacturing at a time when several automakers pulled their forecasts due to an uncertain outlook.

US President Donald Trump’s tariff policy has led to a rise in vehicle prices as manufacturers struggle with high material costs, forcing them to reorganize supply chains and produce domestically.

Lucid’s interim CEO, Marc Winterhoff, had said in May that the company was expecting a rise of 8 percent to 15 percent in overall costs due to new tariffs.

The company’s fortunes rest heavily on the success of its newly launched Gravity SUV and the upcoming mid-size car, which targets a $50,000 price point, as it looks to expand its vehicle line and take a larger share of the market.

Deliveries at EV maker Tesla dropped 13.5 percent in the second quarter, dragged down by CEO Elon Musk’s right-wing political stances and an aging vehicle line-up that has turned off some buyers.