Why Lebanon is seen as trapped ‘between mafia and militia’

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Updated 05 October 2024
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Why Lebanon is seen as trapped ‘between mafia and militia’

  • Two experts claim strategic missteps being made by the US as tensions between Israel and Hezbollah intensify
  • Academic Hamoud Salhi and expert Jean AbiNader made the comments while appearing on Ray Hanania Radio Show

CHICAGO/LONDON: Lebanese experts have painted a bleak picture of the country’s imminent future, describing the nation as trapped “between mafia and militia” and criticizing the failure of the US to intervene effectively in the region. 

Speaking on the Ray Hanania Radio Show, Hamoud Salhi, a political science professor at California State University-Dominguez Hills, and Jean AbiNader, vice president for policy at the American Task Force on Lebanon, highlighted the strategic missteps being taken by the US, especially as tensions between Israel and Hezbollah intensify. 

The US “is strategically being affected. Number one, can you afford continuing to sponsor this war?” Salhi said, adding that further escalation could draw Hezbollah and Iran’s regional allies, such as Yemen and Iraq, into a broader conflict.

He explained that up to this point the US had attempted to leverage its influence in the region through Israel to counterbalance growing powers such as Russia and China. 




In this photo taken at the White House in Washington, DC, on July 25, 2024, Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu seems amused by whatever US President Joe Biden is telling him. Netanyahu has repeatedly rejected US efforts to restrain Israel in its indiscriminate brutal war affecting civilians in Gaza and now in Lebanon. (AFP/File photo)

However, after nearly a year of conflict, Salhi questioned the sustainability of the current US approach, saying: “The US cannot sustain that. And more than anything else, Israel cannot sustain this war.” 

He warned that continued regional instability could lead to mass protests, putting “huge pressure” on the US and its Arab allies. 

“The US could potentially lose its allies in the region, the leaders they are working with,” Salhi said, adding that any potential normalization efforts must include a solution to the Palestinian’s cause. 

FASTFACTS

• A Hezbollah statement on Saturday said Hassan Nasrallah ‘has joined his fellow martyrs.’

• Israeli military said Ali Karki, commander of Hezbollah’s Southern Front, and several other commanders, were also killed in the attack.

• Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said ‘the resistance movement, heading by Hezbollah, will decide the fate of the region.’

He anticipated that any significant changes in Washington’s position would likely occur only after the US presidential election on Nov. 5. At that point President Joe Biden, no longer constrained by election concerns and with just over two more months left in office before the inauguration of his successor on Jan. 20 2025, “could get away with adopting decisions that could favor the region.” 

Judging by events on Thursday, when Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu arrived in New York to address the UN General Assembly, US influence over Israel is weakening.

The day before Netanyahu’s arrival, in a joint statement, the US and 11 allies, including France, the European Union, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, had called for “an immediate 21-day ceasefire across the Lebanon-Israel border to provide space for diplomacy toward the conclusion of a diplomatic settlement.” 




Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu shows maps as he speaks during the 79th Session of the UN General Assembly in New York City on September 27, 2024. (AFP)

The White House and French officials indicated the ceasefire plan had been coordinated directly with Netanyahu. But faced with pressure from the rightwing members of his government, Netanyahu’s first act on touching down in the US was to disown the proposal, with a spokesperson claiming that he had not even responded to it. 

Instead, the prime minister’s office said, he had “instructed the IDF to continue fighting at full force, according to the plans that were presented to him.” 

In recent months, the US, alongside Qatar and Egypt, has been a primary broker in ceasefire negotiations between Hamas and Israel in Gaza. Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, had indicated that similar efforts could also halt the hostilities between Hezbollah and Tel Aviv. 

However, in the past week, both Hezbollah and Israel have escalated their attacks, and on Saturday Israeli aircraft carried out a massive airstrike in Beirut’s Dahiyeh suburb, killing Nasrallah along with several other Hezbollah figures and possibly some Islamic Revolutionary Guards commanders.

A statement from Hezbollah on Saturday said Nasrallah “has joined his fellow martyrs” but that the group would “continue the holy war against the enemy and in support of Palestine.”

This escalation followed the detonation of thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah operatives in two waves of attacks suspected to have been carried out by Mossad, Israel’s intelligence agency, which killed dozens of people and injured thousands more across Lebanon. Most of the dead are believed to have been fighters, based on death notices posted online by Hezbollah.

Subsequent Israeli airstrikes against Hezbollah strongholds in southern Lebanon and Beirut suburbs have killed nearly 700 people and displaced hundreds of thousands. 

“The issue of Lebanon is part of the bigger picture, part of the grand design that Israel has,” said Salhi. “We could talk about the Golan (Heights), we could talk about what’s happening today even in Yemen. Those are really complex issues. 

“But it is also, as we’ve seen so far, connected to the big, big problem of the existence of an entity like Israel, who sees its security through strength, military buildup and occupation within the context of their bigger picture, which is to occupy other countries for the purpose of achieving the right agenda.” 

Israel and Lebanon have a long history of conflict, with tensions peaking during the Lebanese Civil War. Israel invaded Lebanon in 1978 and 1982 in response to attacks from Palestinian militants, occupying southern Lebanon until 2000 while fighting a guerrilla war against Hezbollah. 

After Israel’s withdrawal, Hezbollah attacks led to the 2006 Lebanon War, which formally ended with UN Security Council Resolution 1701. The resolution, calling for a cessation of hostilities, Israeli withdrawal, and the deployment of UNIFIL forces, remains only partially implemented, further entangling Lebanon in a web of unresolved conflict. 




Hezbollah became stronger and bolder after the 2006 war with Israel. When the militia marked the anniversary of the war on August 16, 2019, in the southern Lebanese town of Bint Jbeil, Hezbollah displayed a video showing a sample of its naval missiles that it used to target an Israeli warship off the Lebanese coast during the 2006 war. (AFP)

“(This situation) gets to the heart of what we’ve been saying about Lebanon for 40 years,” said AbiNader.

“In other words, most people have in their mind the image of a country torn between Christians and Muslims, which is absolutely inaccurate. And now the narrative is the country is torn between Christians and Hezbollah, or between Israel and Hezbollah. The overriding images are incorrect to begin with. 

“But we are fighting for the soul of Lebanon,” he said, adding that the question at this point was whether Lebanon was going to become “an outpost for the Iranian paramilitary called Hezbollah, or is it going to return to its weak roots as a quasi-democratic country?” 

The current situation, he said, highlighted the fragile balance underpinning Lebanon’s entire political system. 




Hezbollah fighters carry the body of their top military commander Ibrahim Aqil during his funeral in Beirut's southern suburbs on September 22, 2024. Aqil and other commanders of Hezbollah's "Radwan Force" were killed in an Israeli air strike on September 20. (AFP)

“The expression a lot of Lebanese use is, they’re caught between the mafia and the militia. Mafia, the old political leadership, and the militia, which has its own raison d’etre. 

“And so Lebanon has really put itself into a trap that underscores the question of whether or not Lebanon can survive.”

AbiNader said that Hezbollah had been able to fill the vacuum created by Lebanon’s antiquated and dysfunctional political system, itself a major obstacle to progress. 

“Until you have a (proper) state, you have Hezbollah, which has a stronger military, bank system, supermarkets, all this kind of stuff that supports people and has been done the way the government should, but didn’t,” he said. 

The Lebanese people are suffering now because “the overriding (Israeli) narrative is that Hezbollah is bad, therefore, by extension, the Lebanese are bad and so we can do whatever we want to protect our northern border.” 




Israelis take refuge in a shelter after sirens were heard in the northern city of Kiryat Shmona near the Lebanon border as border tensions with Hezbollah. (AFP/File)

Israel’s current attacks on Lebanon are motivated by a determination to allow an estimated 70,000 Israelis, displaced from the north by Hezbollah rocket and missile attacks since Oct. 7, to return to their homes close to the Lebanese border. 

But the bid to drive Hezbollah back from the border region, said AbiNader, “has resulted in increased retaliation toward the Lebanese people, and very little toward Hezbollah.

“Look at the threats that Israel is making. They’re always saying: ‘OK, Lebanese civilians get out of these areas, because it’s where Hezbollah has its rocket launchers. We’re going to go in and clean up the rocket launchers.’

“Well, we just accept what’s said about Hezbollah without really knowing on the ground what’s there and not there. It’s no question (Hezbollah) are a malign force, but they also represent Lebanese people.

“So, the question is, how do we get the needs of the Lebanese people, that Hezbollah represents, met without further antagonism?”




Displaced families who fled Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon are pictured at a park where they are taking refuge in Tripoli, on September 27, 2024. (AFP)

AbiNader called for the international community to intervene and establish clear boundaries to “stop what’s happening in Lebanon,” adding that competing US interests in the region have long complicated Lebanon’s integration and progress. 

“But it’s not going to happen,” he said.

“Hezbollah and Israel certainly are not going to change. They both think they’re protecting their own people, their own interests, therefore they’re morally right. So, when you have two moral rights arguing against each other, you’re not going to have an easy resolution.” 

He added: “So until there’s some dialog about these dueling narratives — without trying to find who’s right, just to find out where’s the middle ground —  we’re going to continue to have this conflict.”
 

 


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A ministry statement posted on Telegram noted Iran’s “clear statements” on its commitment to adhere to the nuclear non-proliferation treaty and its willingness to meet with US representatives.
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  • Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani and Recep Tayyip Erdogan emphasize important need to deescalate conflict and find diplomatic solutions

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During their call, the leaders emphasized the important need to deescalate the conflict and find diplomatic solutions, the Qatar News Agency reported.

Earlier in the day, the Qatari minister of state for foreign affairs, Mohammed Al-Khulaifi, warned during a call with Rafael Grossi, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, that the targeting of Iranian nuclear facilities by Israel represented a serious threat to regional and international security.

The IAEA reported on Monday that an Israeli airstrike on Iran’s Natanz Nuclear Facility on Friday had damaged centrifuges at the underground uranium-enrichment plant, raising concerns about possible radiological and chemical contamination in the area.


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  • He said targeting nuclear facilities threatens regional, international security

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Al-Khulaifi discussed in a call the Israeli attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities that began on Friday, targeting the Natanz, Fordo, and Isfahan nuclear sites.

Al-Khulaifi stressed that targeting nuclear facilities was a serious threat to regional and international security. He reaffirmed Qatar’s commitment to dialogue to resolve conflicts and achieve peace in the region.

The officials discussed ways to improve the security of nuclear facilities and ensure they are safeguarded against threats, the Qatar News Agency reported.

Al-Khulaifi reiterated Qatar’s strong condemnation of the Israeli attacks on Iranian territory, deeming them blatant violations of Iran’s sovereignty and security, the QNA added.

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Updated 17 June 2025
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  • The SDF did not respond to questions about the current number of troops and open US bases in northeastern Syria

AL-SHADADI BASE: US forces have pulled out of two more bases in northeastern Syria, visiting reporters found, accelerating a troop drawdown that the commander of US-backed Syrian Kurdish forces said was allowing a resurgence of Daesh.
The reporters who visited the two bases in the past week found them mostly deserted, both guarded by small contingents of the Syrian Democratic Forces — the Kurdish-led military group that Washington has backed in the fight against Daesh for a decade.
Cameras used on bases occupied by the US-led military coalition had been taken down, and razor wire on the outer perimeters had begun to sag.
A Kurdish politician who lives on one base said there were no longer US troops there. SDF guards at the second base said troops had left recently but refused to say when.

HIGHLIGHTS

• No US troops present at Al-Wazir and Tel Baydar bases.

• Daesh threat ‘has significantly increased’, SDF commander says.

The Pentagon refused to comment.
It is the first confirmation on the ground by reporters that the US has withdrawn from Al-Wazir and Tel Baydar bases in Hasaka province.
It brings to at least four the number of bases in Syria US troops have left since President Donald Trump took office.
Trump’s administration said this month it will scale down its military presence in Syria to one base from eight in parts of northeastern Syria that the SDF controls.
The New York Times reported in April that troops might be reduced from 2,000 to 500 in the drawdown.
The SDF did not respond to questions about the current number of troops and open US bases in northeastern Syria.
But SDF commander Mazloum Abdi, who spoke at another US base, Al-Shadadi, said the presence of a few hundred troops on one base would be “not enough” to contain the threat of Daesh.
“The threat of Daesh has significantly increased recently. But this is the US military’s plan. We’ve known about it for a long time ... and we’re working with them to make sure there are no gaps and we can maintain pressure on Daesh State,” he said.
Abdi spoke on Friday, hours after Israel launched its air war on Iran. He refused to comment on how the new Israel-Iran war would affect Syria, saying simply that he hoped it would not spill over there and that he felt safe on a US base.
Hours after the interview, three Iranian-made missiles targeted the Al-Shadadi base and were shot down by US defense systems, two SDF security sources said.
Daesh ruled vast swathes of Iraq and Syria from 2014 to 2017 during Syria’s civil war.