What to know after Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah

People gather at the site of the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut's southern suburbs, Lebanon Sunday, Sept. 29, 2024. (AP)
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Updated 29 September 2024
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What to know after Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah

  • It remains to be seen whether his death will be a trigger for an all-out war between the two sides
  • Iran is the main backer of Hezbollah and other anti-Israeli militant groups in the region

BEIRUT: Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah is a monumental and hugely demoralizing blow to the group he led for 32 years, marking a significant inflection point for Lebanon and the region.
Hezbollah’s announcement of his death Friday triggered tears and celebrations across the Arab world, pointing to the widespread reach and influence of a divisive man who has been at the forefront of Middle Eastern politics for decades.
The 64-year-old Nasrallah headed arguably the most powerful paramilitary force in the world — also a US-designated terror organization — that is now left without a clear successor at a critical juncture. It remains to be seen whether his death will be a trigger for an all-out war between the two sides that could potentially drag in Iran and the United States.
Here are some things to know about the situation:
Is it a decapitating blow?
Nasrallah’s assassination is a severe blow to the group, not a decapitating one. But analysts say Hezbollah will need some time to absorb the shock and recover.
“Nasrallah’s killing is a significant setback for Hezbollah, not only because of the pivotal role he played in Hezbollah’s strategy but also because his elimination reveals the extent of the group’s vulnerability vis-à-vis Israel,” said Lina Khatib, an associate fellow at Chatham House, an international affairs think tank.
“This will shake the confidence of Hezbollah’s Iran-backed allies across the Arab world, from the Houthis in Yemen to the Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq, as well as Iran itself, sparking a tectonic shift in Iran’s network of influence in the Middle East,” she added.
It is not the first time Israel has killed a Hezbollah leader. Nasrallah took over from Abbas Mousawi, who was killed by an Israeli helicopter attack in 1992.
But Hezbollah today is very different from the ragtag organization it was in the ‘90s. In recent years, he has presided over an army-like group estimated to have tens of thousands of fighters and a sophisticated arsenal capable of reaching anywhere inside Israel.
It has become the chief part of a cluster of Iranian-backed factions and governments of the self-named “Axis of Resistance.”
“Hezbollah will not back down following the killing of its leader, as it will need to convey steadfastness in the face of Israel if it’s going to retain its credibility as the strongest ‘resistance’ actor in the region,” said Khatib.
Iran’s dilemma
In his first remarks Saturday following Nasrallah’s death, Iran’s supreme leader gave no indication of how Tehran will respond.
In a vague statement, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said, “all regional resistance forces” support and stand beside Hezbollah, but he did not elaborate.
Iran is the main backer of Hezbollah and other anti-Israeli militant groups in the region, but it has largely avoided clashing directly with Israel due to domestic considerations.
Hezbollah, however, is Iran’s chief ally and proxy group, and Tehran may have to respond to retain its credibility with its partners in the axis.
“Iran is very much in a policy dilemma right now,” said Firas Maksad, of the Middle East Institute. On one hand, clearly it very much has wanted to avoid an all-out and direct confrontation, given its long-standing preference for asymmetric warfare and using proxies.
“But on the other hand, a lack of a worthy response given the magnitude of the event will only encourage Israel to push deeper past Iran’s red lines,” he said. Not responding also sends a signal of weakness to its regional proxies.
Any direct Iranian involvement risks dragging Israel’s chief ally, the US, into the war, just over a month before the US elections and at a time Iran has signaled its interest in renewing negotiations with the US over its nuclear program.
Maksad said one possible scenario is a coordinated response from the entire axis. Whether that will be coupled with a direct response from Iran itself is an open question.
Who will succeed Nasrallah?
There is no one nearly as influential and respected among the group’s remaining leadership as Nasrallah.
The man widely regarded as his heir is Hashem Safieddine, a cousin of Nasrallah who oversees the group’s political affairs. It is not known if he survived Friday’s attack, and the Hezbollah statement announcing Nasrallah’s death Friday made no mention of a successor.
The group’s Shoura Council will have to meet in the coming days or weeks to choose its new leadership. Lebanese journalist and writer Maher Abi Nader said Safieddine or Nabil Kaouk, a member of the group’s executive council, were the likely successors.
Whoever ends up replacing Nasrallah in the current atmosphere will have to contend with a deeply weakened force facing growing anger and frustration on the home front.
In just over 10 days, the Iran-backed group has been hit by a series of devastating attacks that dealt a severe blow to its military structure and exposed deep intelligence failures.
Explosives hidden in the group’s pagers and walkie-talkies killed dozens of people and wounded thousands — many of them Hezbollah members. Israel has also rained down missiles on residential areas where the group has a strong presence, killing hundreds and displacing tens of thousands of people.
Nasrallah was regarded by supporters as a charismatic and shrewd leader. Despite being a divisive figure, he is credited with pushing Israeli forces from south Lebanon in 2000 following an 18-year occupation, as well as transforming the organization from a local militia to a major political player in Lebanon and a top armed force in the region.
He held tremendous sway over the group and the country’s Shiite community.
Orna Mizrahi, a senior researcher at the Tel Aviv-based think tank Institute for National Security Studies, noted that Nasrallah was sometimes a “voice of reason” who was interested in engaging Israel in a war of attrition, holding the militant group back from using the full force of their formidable arsenal against Israel.
Filling those shoes will be a tough act, analysts say.
Growing tensions in Lebanon
Any new Hezbollah leader will also have to contend with rising resentment and frustration among a significant section of the Lebanese population. For years, critics say, Hezbollah deprived Lebanon of its sovereignty by behaving as a state within a state and making unilateral decisions involving war and peace.
Many Christians and Sunnis, as well as a portion of the Shiite community, are opposed to the war and what they regard as Nasrallah’s unilateral decision to attack Israel in support of the Gaza front on Oct. 8, a day after the Hamas attack on Israel that ignited the war in the Palestinian territory.
Tensions are extremely high in tiny Lebanon, which is already drowning under the force of an economic meltdown and multiple other crises. A humanitarian crisis has rapidly unfolded with tens of thousands of people displaced, many of them sleeping in parks and makeshift shelters. Dozens of schools designated as sheltered became full within days.
The country is bankrupt and has been without a president and functioning government for two years. In the void, sectarian tensions and frustrations within the country could spiral into armed violence.
Maha Yahya, director of the Beirut-based Carnegie Middle East Center, said Hezbollah now has to contend with all of that as it struggles to regroup.
“And it will have to be more accommodating to Lebanon’s other political parties and communities,” she said.


Israel says to end ‘administrative detention’ for West Bank settlers

Updated 58 min 15 sec ago
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Israel says to end ‘administrative detention’ for West Bank settlers

  • Practice allows for detainees to be held for long periods without being charged or appear in court
  • The Palestinian Prisoners Club advocacy group said in August that 3,432 Palestinians were held in administrative detention

JERUSALEM: Israeli authorities will stop holding Jewish settlers in the occupied West Bank under administrative detention, or incarceration without trial, the defense ministry announced Friday.
The practice allows for detainees to be held for long periods without being charged or appear in court, and is often used against Palestinians who Israel deems security threats.
Defense Minister Israel Katz said it was “inappropriate” for Israel to employ administrative detention against settlers who “face severe Palestinian terror threats and unjustified international sanctions.”
But, according to settlement watchdog Peace Now, it is one of only few effective tools that Israeli authorities to prevent settler attacks against Palestinians, which have surged in the West Bank over the past year.
Katz said in a statement issued by his office that prosecution or “other preventive measures” would be used to deal with criminal acts in the West Bank.
B’Tselem, an Israeli rights group, said authorities use administrative detention “extensively and routinely” to hold thousands of Palestinians for lengthy periods of time.
The Palestinian Prisoners Club advocacy group said in August that 3,432 Palestinians were held in administrative detention.
Israeli daily Haaretz reported on Friday that eight settlers were held under the same practice in November.
Yonatan Mizrahi, director of settlement watch for Peace Now, said that although administrative detention was mostly used in the West Bank to detain Palestinians, it was one of the few effective tools for temporarily removing the threat of settler violence through detention.
“The cancelation of administrative detention orders for settlers alone is a cynical... move that whitewashes and normalizes escalating Jewish terrorism under the cover of war,” the group said in a statement, referring to a spike in settler attacks throughout the Israel-Hamas conflict over the past 13 months.
Western governments, including Israel’s ally and military backer the United States, have recently imposed sanctions on Israeli settlers and settler organizations over ties to violence against Palestinians.
On Monday, US authorities announced sanctions against Amana, a movement that backs settlement development, and others who have “ties to violent actors in the West Bank.”
“Amana is a key part of the Israeli extremist settlement movement and maintains ties to various persons previously sanctioned by the US government and its partners for perpetrating violence in the West Bank,” the US Treasury said.
Excluding Israeli-annexed east Jerusalem, the West Bank — which Israel has occupied since 1967 — is home to three million Palestinians as well as about 490,000 Israelis living in settlements that are illegal under international law.


UK would arrest Netanyahu over ICC warrant: Senior politician 

Updated 22 November 2024
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UK would arrest Netanyahu over ICC warrant: Senior politician 

  • Emily Thornberry: Britain has ‘obligation under Rome Convention’ to arrest Israeli PM if he enters country 
  • Court: ‘Reasonable grounds to believe’ Netanyahu responsible for war crimes, crimes against humanity in Gaza

LONDON: The UK will arrest Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu if he enters the country, a senior British politician has said.

The International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Netanyahu on Thursday for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity, alongside his former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, pertaining to the Gaza war.

Emily Thornberry — Labour chair of the foreign affairs committee, and former shadow foreign secretary and shadow attorney general — told Sky News: “If Netanyahu comes to Britain, our obligation under the Rome Convention would be to arrest him under the warrant from the ICC.

“(It is) not really a question of should — we are required to, because we are members of the ICC.”

UK Home Secretary Yvette Cooper has refused to be drawn on whether Netanyahu would be arrested if he set foot on British soil, saying it “wouldn’t be appropriate for me to comment.”

She told Sky: “We’ve always respected the importance of international law, but in the majority of the cases that they pursue, they don’t become part of the British legal process.

“What I can say is that obviously, the UK government’s position remains that we believe the focus should be on getting a ceasefire in Gaza.”

Netanyahu’s arrest warrant is the first to be issued against the premier of a major Western ally by an international court for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity.

His office denounced the warrant as “anti-Semitic,” adding that Israel “rejects with disgust the absurd and false actions.” Israel is not an ICC member and rejects the court’s jurisdiction.

US President Joe Biden called the warrants against Netanyahu and Gallant “outrageous,” adding: “Whatever the ICC might imply, there is no equivalence — none — between Israel and Hamas.”

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said he plans to invite Netanyahu to visit Budapest, adding that the arrest warrant will “not be observed” by his government.

The Italian and French governments, however, have indicated that Netanyahu will be arrested if he visits either country.

The ICC said on Thursday it has “reasonable grounds to believe” that Netanyahu and Gallant “bear criminal responsibility” for “the war crime of starvation as a method of warfare; and the crimes against humanity of murder, persecution, and other inhumane acts.”

The court also issued a warrant for Hamas commander Mohammed Diab Ibrahim Al-Masri for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity.

Israel says Al-Masri, believed to have been the mastermind behind the Hamas attack of Oct. 7, 2023, was killed in Gaza earlier this year.

The ICC said it issued the warrant for his arrest because of insufficient evidence to prove his death.


Monitor raises toll in Israel strikes on Syria’s Palmyra to 92

Updated 22 November 2024
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Monitor raises toll in Israel strikes on Syria’s Palmyra to 92

  • Wednesday’s Israeli attack targeted three sites in Palmyra, with one hitting a meeting of pro-Iranian groups
  • Since civil war erupted in Syria in 2011, Israel has carried out hundreds of strikes in the country

BEIRUT: A Syria war monitor said on Friday that Israeli strikes on the city of Palmyra this week killed 92 pro-Iran fighters, after a United Nations representative said they were likely the deadliest to date.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said Wednesday’s attack targeted three sites in Palmyra, with one hitting a meeting of pro-Iranian groups that also involved commanders from Iraq’s Al-Nujaba group and Lebanon’s Hezbollah.
The toll has risen to “92 dead: 61 Syrian pro-Iran fighters,” 11 of them working for Hezbollah, “and 27 foreign nationals mostly from Al-Nujaba, plus four from Hezbollah,” the Observatory said.
The Britain-based war monitor, which relies on a network of sources inside Syria, had previously reported 82 dead, while the Syria defense ministry on Wednesday said 36 people were killed.
The UN deputy special envoy to Syria, Najat Rochdi, told the Security Council on Thursday that the raid was “likely the deadliest Israeli strike in Syria to date.”
The Observatory said the strikes also targeted “a weapons depot near the industrial area” in Palmyra, a modern city adjacent to globally renowned Greco-Roman ruins.
Since civil war erupted in Syria in 2011, Israel has carried out hundreds of strikes in the country, mainly targeting the army and Iran-backed groups.
Israel rarely comments on individual strikes in Syria but has repeatedly said it will not allow Iran to expand its presence in the country.
The Israeli military has intensified its strikes on targets in Syria since almost a year of hostilities with Iran-backed Hezbollah in neighboring Lebanon escalated into full-scale war in late September.


Iran Guards chief says Netanyahu ICC warrant ‘political death’ of Israel

Updated 22 November 2024
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Iran Guards chief says Netanyahu ICC warrant ‘political death’ of Israel

  • Revolutionary Guards chief General Hossein Salami calls the ICC warrant ‘a welcome move’
  • Salami adds it is a ‘great victory for the Palestinian and Lebanese resistance movements’

TEHRAN: The head of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards on Friday described the arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and a former defense minister as the “end and political death” of Israel, in a speech.
“This means the end and political death of the Zionist regime, a regime that today lives in absolute political isolation in the world and its officials can no longer travel to other countries,” Revolutionary Guards chief General Hossein Salami said in the speech aired on state TV.
In the first official reaction by Iran, Salami called the ICC warrant “a welcome move” and a “great victory for the Palestinian and Lebanese resistance movements,” both supported by the Islamic republic.
Israel and its allies criticized the ICC’s decision to issue an arrest warrant on Thursday for Israeli Premier Benjamin Netanyahu and the country’s former defense minister Yoav Gallant.
The court also issued a warrant for the arrest of Hamas’s military chief Mohammed Deif.
The warrants against Netanyahu and Gallant were issued in response to accusations of crimes against humanity and war crimes during Israel’s war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip, sparked by the Palestinian militant group’s attack on Israel on October 7, 2023.
The move drew angry reactions from Netanyahu, who denounced it as antisemitic and from Israel’s closest allies, including the United States, but was welcomed by rights groups including Amnesty International.
The ICC’s move theoretically limits the movement of Netanyahu, as any of the court’s 124 national members would be obliged to arrest him on their territory.
The court’s chief prosecutor Karim Khan urged the body’s members to act on the warrants, and for non-members to work together in “upholding international law.”


Israel armys say ‘eliminated’ five Hamas militants in north Gaza raid

Updated 22 November 2024
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Israel armys say ‘eliminated’ five Hamas militants in north Gaza raid

  • Israeli military: Slain militants had ‘led the murders and kidnappings in the area of Mefalsim’

JERUSALEM: The Israeli military said on Friday it had “eliminated” five Hamas militants, including two commanders, in an overnight raid in northern Gaza’s Beit Lahia.
In a statement, the military and the Shin Bet security agency said they had “eliminated five Hamas terrorists, including a Nukhba (commando) company commander and an additional company commander who participated in the Oct. 7 massacre” that sparked the Gaza war last year, adding that the slain militants had “led the murders and kidnappings in the area of Mefalsim,” a kibbutz in southern Israel.