What to know after Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah

People gather at the site of the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut's southern suburbs, Lebanon Sunday, Sept. 29, 2024. (AP)
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Updated 29 September 2024
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What to know after Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah

  • It remains to be seen whether his death will be a trigger for an all-out war between the two sides
  • Iran is the main backer of Hezbollah and other anti-Israeli militant groups in the region

BEIRUT: Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah is a monumental and hugely demoralizing blow to the group he led for 32 years, marking a significant inflection point for Lebanon and the region.
Hezbollah’s announcement of his death Friday triggered tears and celebrations across the Arab world, pointing to the widespread reach and influence of a divisive man who has been at the forefront of Middle Eastern politics for decades.
The 64-year-old Nasrallah headed arguably the most powerful paramilitary force in the world — also a US-designated terror organization — that is now left without a clear successor at a critical juncture. It remains to be seen whether his death will be a trigger for an all-out war between the two sides that could potentially drag in Iran and the United States.
Here are some things to know about the situation:
Is it a decapitating blow?
Nasrallah’s assassination is a severe blow to the group, not a decapitating one. But analysts say Hezbollah will need some time to absorb the shock and recover.
“Nasrallah’s killing is a significant setback for Hezbollah, not only because of the pivotal role he played in Hezbollah’s strategy but also because his elimination reveals the extent of the group’s vulnerability vis-à-vis Israel,” said Lina Khatib, an associate fellow at Chatham House, an international affairs think tank.
“This will shake the confidence of Hezbollah’s Iran-backed allies across the Arab world, from the Houthis in Yemen to the Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq, as well as Iran itself, sparking a tectonic shift in Iran’s network of influence in the Middle East,” she added.
It is not the first time Israel has killed a Hezbollah leader. Nasrallah took over from Abbas Mousawi, who was killed by an Israeli helicopter attack in 1992.
But Hezbollah today is very different from the ragtag organization it was in the ‘90s. In recent years, he has presided over an army-like group estimated to have tens of thousands of fighters and a sophisticated arsenal capable of reaching anywhere inside Israel.
It has become the chief part of a cluster of Iranian-backed factions and governments of the self-named “Axis of Resistance.”
“Hezbollah will not back down following the killing of its leader, as it will need to convey steadfastness in the face of Israel if it’s going to retain its credibility as the strongest ‘resistance’ actor in the region,” said Khatib.
Iran’s dilemma
In his first remarks Saturday following Nasrallah’s death, Iran’s supreme leader gave no indication of how Tehran will respond.
In a vague statement, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said, “all regional resistance forces” support and stand beside Hezbollah, but he did not elaborate.
Iran is the main backer of Hezbollah and other anti-Israeli militant groups in the region, but it has largely avoided clashing directly with Israel due to domestic considerations.
Hezbollah, however, is Iran’s chief ally and proxy group, and Tehran may have to respond to retain its credibility with its partners in the axis.
“Iran is very much in a policy dilemma right now,” said Firas Maksad, of the Middle East Institute. On one hand, clearly it very much has wanted to avoid an all-out and direct confrontation, given its long-standing preference for asymmetric warfare and using proxies.
“But on the other hand, a lack of a worthy response given the magnitude of the event will only encourage Israel to push deeper past Iran’s red lines,” he said. Not responding also sends a signal of weakness to its regional proxies.
Any direct Iranian involvement risks dragging Israel’s chief ally, the US, into the war, just over a month before the US elections and at a time Iran has signaled its interest in renewing negotiations with the US over its nuclear program.
Maksad said one possible scenario is a coordinated response from the entire axis. Whether that will be coupled with a direct response from Iran itself is an open question.
Who will succeed Nasrallah?
There is no one nearly as influential and respected among the group’s remaining leadership as Nasrallah.
The man widely regarded as his heir is Hashem Safieddine, a cousin of Nasrallah who oversees the group’s political affairs. It is not known if he survived Friday’s attack, and the Hezbollah statement announcing Nasrallah’s death Friday made no mention of a successor.
The group’s Shoura Council will have to meet in the coming days or weeks to choose its new leadership. Lebanese journalist and writer Maher Abi Nader said Safieddine or Nabil Kaouk, a member of the group’s executive council, were the likely successors.
Whoever ends up replacing Nasrallah in the current atmosphere will have to contend with a deeply weakened force facing growing anger and frustration on the home front.
In just over 10 days, the Iran-backed group has been hit by a series of devastating attacks that dealt a severe blow to its military structure and exposed deep intelligence failures.
Explosives hidden in the group’s pagers and walkie-talkies killed dozens of people and wounded thousands — many of them Hezbollah members. Israel has also rained down missiles on residential areas where the group has a strong presence, killing hundreds and displacing tens of thousands of people.
Nasrallah was regarded by supporters as a charismatic and shrewd leader. Despite being a divisive figure, he is credited with pushing Israeli forces from south Lebanon in 2000 following an 18-year occupation, as well as transforming the organization from a local militia to a major political player in Lebanon and a top armed force in the region.
He held tremendous sway over the group and the country’s Shiite community.
Orna Mizrahi, a senior researcher at the Tel Aviv-based think tank Institute for National Security Studies, noted that Nasrallah was sometimes a “voice of reason” who was interested in engaging Israel in a war of attrition, holding the militant group back from using the full force of their formidable arsenal against Israel.
Filling those shoes will be a tough act, analysts say.
Growing tensions in Lebanon
Any new Hezbollah leader will also have to contend with rising resentment and frustration among a significant section of the Lebanese population. For years, critics say, Hezbollah deprived Lebanon of its sovereignty by behaving as a state within a state and making unilateral decisions involving war and peace.
Many Christians and Sunnis, as well as a portion of the Shiite community, are opposed to the war and what they regard as Nasrallah’s unilateral decision to attack Israel in support of the Gaza front on Oct. 8, a day after the Hamas attack on Israel that ignited the war in the Palestinian territory.
Tensions are extremely high in tiny Lebanon, which is already drowning under the force of an economic meltdown and multiple other crises. A humanitarian crisis has rapidly unfolded with tens of thousands of people displaced, many of them sleeping in parks and makeshift shelters. Dozens of schools designated as sheltered became full within days.
The country is bankrupt and has been without a president and functioning government for two years. In the void, sectarian tensions and frustrations within the country could spiral into armed violence.
Maha Yahya, director of the Beirut-based Carnegie Middle East Center, said Hezbollah now has to contend with all of that as it struggles to regroup.
“And it will have to be more accommodating to Lebanon’s other political parties and communities,” she said.


Two Egyptian pilots killed in helicopter crash in Suez: army

Updated 2 sec ago
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Two Egyptian pilots killed in helicopter crash in Suez: army

The Egyptian air force operates aircraft from various countries

CAIRO: Two Egyptian air force officers were killed on Tuesday when a helicopter crashed during a training exercise, the military said.
The helicopter went down near a key air base in the town of Shalufa, in Suez province, “due to a technical malfunction,” military spokesman Gharib Abdel Hafez said in a post on his official Facebook page.
He did not specify the manufacturer or model of the aircraft.
The Egyptian air force operates aircraft from various countries, including France, Russia and the United States.
In November 2022, the military said a fighter jet had crashed during a military exercise but it reported no casualties.
In December 2019, an aircraft crashed during a training exercise. The pilot ejected safely.

US soldier injured during Gaza pier operation has died: military

Updated 15 min 56 sec ago
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US soldier injured during Gaza pier operation has died: military

  • “It is with great sadness that we announce the passing of Sgt. Quandarius Davon Stanley,” Captain Shkeila Milford-Glover said
  • In addition to the injuries, the project faced other problems starting in May, when the pier was damaged by bad weather and had to be removed for repairs

WASHINGTON: An American soldier has died after being injured during Washington’s problem-plagued operation to establish a temporary aid pier on the coast of Gaza, the US military said Tuesday.
The pier effort aimed to boost deliveries of desperately needed humanitarian assistance into the war-wracked Palestinian territory as Israel held up shipments by land.
But the effort ran into repeated weather issues and the United States ended it in mid-July, some two months after its installation.
“It is with great sadness that we announce the passing of Sgt. Quandarius Davon Stanley, a recently retired motor transport operator,” Captain Shkeila Milford-Glover, spokesperson for the 3rd Expeditionary Sustainment Command, said in a statement.
She did not say when Stanley died or what kind of injury he had sustained, specifying only that the soldier had been receiving treatment in a long-term care facility.
He was one of three US military personnel who suffered non-combat injuries at sea during the pier operation.
The two others suffered minor injuries, a sprained ankle and a hurt back, the military said in May.
In addition to the injuries, the project faced other problems starting in May, when the pier was damaged by bad weather and had to be removed for repairs.
It was then reattached on June 7, but was moved to Ashdod on June 14 to protect it from anticipated high seas — a situation that was repeated later in the month.
US President Joe Biden announced the pier project during his State of the Union address in March as Israel held up deliveries of assistance by land, and the Pentagon has said it helped push the Israeli government to open more aid routes.


Japanese prime minister praises Saudi Arabia’s role in addressing the Gaza crisis

Updated 31 min 34 sec ago
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Japanese prime minister praises Saudi Arabia’s role in addressing the Gaza crisis

  • PM Ishiba made the remarks during a telephone summit with Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman
  • Ishiba stated that he would like to strengthen the strategic partnership between Japan and Saudi Arabia

TOKYO: Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba hailed “Saudi Arabia’s leadership on Gaza” and expressed his determination to continue working with the Kingdom to bring stability to the Middle East.

Ishiba made the remarks during a telephone summit with Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on Tuesday, during which he expressed his hope that Saudi Arabia would continue to play a leading role in stabilizing the global oil market.

The Foreign Ministry in Tokyo said the crown prince expressed his wish to deepen cooperation with Japan in various fields, including politics, economics, security, and potentially technology transfer and cultural exchange.

Ishiba said he would like Japan and Saudi Arabia to expand cooperation to areas including clean energy, advanced technology, and entertainment.

With 2025 marking the 70th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries, Ishiba reiterated his commitment to peace and stability in the region. He stated that he would like to strengthen the strategic partnership between Japan and Saudi Arabia and work even more closely together to promote these values. The crown prince also affirmed his commitment to these goals, stating that Saudi Arabia attaches great importance to its relations with Japan and welcomes further cooperation.

The Foreign Ministry added that both leaders shared their concerns about conflicts in the Middle East and the need for all parties involved to exercise maximum restraint. Ishiba said he appreciated Saudi Arabia’s leadership on Gaza, and the two leaders agreed to continue working closely together to achieve stability in the Middle East.


Syrian state media: Israel attacked town near Lebanon border

Updated 32 min 41 sec ago
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Syrian state media: Israel attacked town near Lebanon border

DAMASCUS: An Israeli strike hit a Syrian town near the border with Lebanon on Tuesday, Syrian state media said, less than a week after deadly strikes on the same area.
“An Israeli aggression targeted the industrial zone in Al-Qusayr” in Homs province, the official SANA news agency said. There was no immediate news of casualties or damage.

Since the beginning of the Syrian civil war in 2011, Israel has carried out hundreds of strikes in Syria mainly targeting army positions and Iran-backed fighters including from Hezbollah.
The Israeli military has intensified its strikes on Syria since it launched its war on Hezbollah in neighbouring Lebanon.
Israeli authorities rarely comment on the strikes, but have repeatedly said they will not allow arch-enemy Iran to expand its presence in Syria.


Health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza says war death toll at 43,391

Updated 05 November 2024
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Health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza says war death toll at 43,391

  • The toll includes 17 deaths in the previous 24 hours

GAZA STRIP: The health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza said on Tuesday that at least 43,391 people have been killed in the year-old war between Israel and Palestinian militants.
The toll includes 17 deaths in the previous 24 hours, according to the ministry, which said 102,347 people have been wounded in the Gaza Strip since the war began when Hamas militants attacked Israel on October 7, 2023.