Frankly Speaking: Is a new civil war inevitable in Lebanon?

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Updated 30 September 2024
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Frankly Speaking: Is a new civil war inevitable in Lebanon?

  • Far from deepening sectarianism, Israeli strikes are creating solidarity between Lebanon’s factions, says health minister
  • Dr. Firass Abiad accuses Israel of refusing to negotiate an end to conflict and of committing war crimes by killing health personnel

DUBAI: Hassan Nasrallah, the longstanding Hezbollah leader who was killed in an Israeli strike on his Beirut stronghold over the weekend, was the author of deep divisions in Lebanon, which have long threatened to drag the nation back into the mire of civil war.

Since the latest hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah suddenly escalated in mid-September, reports have circulated on social media about flare-ups in sectarian tensions in different parts of Lebanon as a result of mass displacement of people from the south.

Appearing on the Arab News current affairs program “Frankly Speaking,” Firass Abiad, Lebanon’s minister of public health, insisted the conflict had not created a sectarian split in society, as even many Shiites, who form Hezbollah’s support base, now appear to oppose the militia’s actions.

“There’s clearly a lot of people in Lebanon who oppose the politics and what Hezbollah is doing. There’s no denying that, if you talk to people,” Abiad told “Frankly Speaking” host Katie Jensen.

“This is across the board. This is not sectarian, (it’s) among all sects, including Shittes, you have people who oppose Hezbollah.”




Dr. Firass Abiad, Lebanon’s minister of public health, insisted the conflict had not created a sectarian split, even as many Shiites appear to oppose Hezbollah’s actions. (AN photo)

At the same time, however, Abiad said Israel’s strikes on Lebanon had created a spirit of solidarity across Lebanon’s multiconfessional society, similar to the sympathy generated across the Arab world for the Palestinians — even among those who oppose Hamas — in the wake of Israel’s assault on Gaza.

“What Israel is doing by these indiscriminate attacks, when they attack a Christian or even when they are attacking Shiite areas … this will only increase the feeling of solidarity with the community where Hezbollah is based,” he said.

“We’ve seen this also with Gaza. If you look at the Arab world, the support for Hamas is not high. But when people see the atrocities, the carnage that Israel is perpetrating in Gaza, I think that, unanimously, a lot of people have a lot of sympathy with the people of Palestine.

“And Israel, in the way it is conducting its war on Lebanon, has fostered this environment of solidarity.”

Abiad said this sense of solidarity was evident on Sept. 16 and 17, when Hezbollah communication devices, including pagers and walkie-talkies, exploded simultaneously in a coordinated attack blamed on Israel that killed at least 32 and injured more than 3,000.

“You could see this on the day of the attack on the explosive devices,” said Abiad. “We at the Ministry of Health were sending patients all across the country because we had to have a full response from all hospitals.

“And even when we were sending patients into hospitals that were in areas that are politically, or from a religious perspective, diametrically opposite to Hezbollah, the people who were injured were welcomed, they were cared for, they were given attention.




An ambulance brings injured Lebanese to the AUB Medical Center, on Sept. 17 after beeper blasts targeted Hezbollah operatives. (File/AFP)

“This is something that Israel has repeatedly failed to understand; that its indiscriminate targeting or its dehumanization of all, for example, Arabs, or communities, would only lead to more sympathy with the ‘said’ enemies.”

On Saturday, Hezbollah confirmed Nasrallah had been killed in an Israeli strike on the group’s Dahiyeh stronghold in Beirut. The attack follows days of Israeli strikes across Lebanon, which, as of Saturday, had left 1,030 people — including 156 women and 87 children — dead.

Hezbollah began rocketing northern Israel last October in solidarity with the Palestinian militant group Hamas, whose Oct. 7 assault on southern Israel triggered the war in Gaza. Israel retaliated by mounting strikes on Hezbollah targets.

Since mid-September, Israeli strikes on Hezbollah targets across the country have rapidly escalated. However, the roots of the conflict run deeper than last October. The two sides have been locked in an intermittent confrontation since the Lebanese civil war.

Hezbollah was formed during Israel’s 1982 invasion of Lebanon. Major escalations occurred in 1993, 1996, and particularly in 2006, when a full-scale war erupted, causing significant destruction in Lebanon.

Hezbollah has since strengthened its military capabilities, while maintaining its role in Lebanese politics. Tensions continued, with periodic border clashes, as the group has evolved into a key player in the broader Israel-Iran proxy conflict.

Israel withdrew its troops from Lebanon in 2000, creating the possibility of stability for Lebanon. However, territorial disputes remained, which Hezbollah exploited to build support and to justify continued resistance to Israel.

Does a share of the blame for the continuation of hostilities, therefore, belong to Hezbollah?

“No, that’s the exact opposite,” said Abiad. “If you go back to the UN resolutions — especially 1701. In 1701, it was very clear that, first of all, Israel has to withdraw from all the areas in Lebanon, which did not happen. And up till now, Israel still occupies Lebanese territory.”




Medical staff at a hospital care for victims after the Israeli military struck Hezbollah targets in Beirut's southern suburb last week. (File/AFP)

UN Security Council Resolution 1701, adopted in 2006, called for a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, ending the Lebanon War. It demanded the disarmament of Hezbollah, the withdrawal of Israeli forces from southern Lebanon, and the deployment of Lebanese and UN peacekeeping troops to stabilize the region and prevent future conflict.

“Secondly, it very clearly mentioned that Israel should not violate Lebanese airspace, which also did not happen; Israel has been violating Lebanese airspace continuously since the 2000 partial withdrawal from Lebanon,” said Abiad.

“So, indeed, unfortunately, these actions by Israel gave the pretext for Hezbollah to continue today what it is doing now. But let’s be very clear, Israel didn’t fulfill that part of 1701. And even now, Lebanon is saying we are ready to abide by the UN Security Council resolutions.”

One particularly irksome issue relates to the Shebaa Farms — a dispute that centers on a small strip of land claimed by Lebanon but occupied by Israel since 1967.

While Israel and the UN consider it part of Syria’s Golan Heights, Lebanon argues the area is Lebanese, fueling tensions, especially involving Hezbollah, over its sovereignty.

Given what is now occurring in Lebanon, does Abiad believe continuing the Shebaa Farms dispute with Israel has been worthwhile? Surely a negotiated deal would have been a far better option?

“But that depends on the other party accepting a negotiation,” said Abiad. “And, up to now, it has been very clear that Israel is not interested in a negotiated outcome.”

Whoever is ultimately to blame for prolonging the conflict, the result today is mass displacement, civilians killed, thousands injured, and public health system under extreme strain.

The ongoing conflict has created a massive humanitarian crisis, with widespread displacement across the country. According to the Lebanese government’s estimates, nearly 500,000 people have been forced to flee their homes due to escalating violence.

Abiad highlighted the magnitude of the displacement from the south. “Before the attacks, the number released by the disaster management side was 130,000 displaced,” he said.

“Remember that by that time, there was an escalation of hostilities by Israel, and the populations were internally displaced still into southern areas.”

Abiad said the Lebanese government has established 400 public shelters, which currently house about 70,000 people. However, he said the total number of displaced people is far higher.

“We estimate that usually, from our past experience in the 2006 war, the number of people, whether they are living with friends, family, in homes they rented, or even across the border into neighboring countries, is four to five times as many as there are in shelters,” he said.

“And that’s why we really believe that the tally of people who have been displaced is probably around 400,000 to 500,000.”

The pressure on hospitals, in particular, is reaching breaking point.

“The daily tally of casualties keeps rising, as hospitals get overwhelmed with casualties,” said Abiad. “Can we continue all this? The answer is we are working at nearly full capacity, I would say. And it is becoming more tough as the war drags on.”




“There’s clearly a lot of people in Lebanon who oppose ... what Hezbollah is doing. There’s no denying that, if you talk to people,” Dr. Firass Abiad told “Frankly Speaking” host Katie Jensen. (AN photo)

He added: “I think the most challenging would be fuel. I think that, concerning nurses, hospital beds, medical supplies, medications, as I said, we have been stocking up on our inventory. But really, fuel is going to be a critical issue.

“Hospitals, ambulances, they all require fuel to function. Now we have been increasing the renewable-energy budgets in our hospitals — 15 of our public hospitals now have renewable energy, constituting almost 40 percent of their energy requirements.

“Almost 200 of our primary health care centers now completely can work or function on renewable energy. But clearly I would say fuel is going to be critical if there is a further escalation.”

On top of this, Abiad accused Israel of deliberately targeting medical personnel — something he says constitutes a war crime.

“Do we consider this a war crime? Of course, we consider this a war crime,” said Abiad, adding that this was not just the view of the Lebanese government but echoed by international legal bodies.

“When we listen to the International Court of Justice, these are the experts on what is international humanitarian law and whether it has been violated. So these are the experts telling us that what Israel is doing constitutes war crimes.”
 

 


Egypt completes trial run of new Suez Canal channel extension

Updated 6 sec ago
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Egypt completes trial run of new Suez Canal channel extension

CAIRO: Egypt said on Saturday it had successfully tested a new 10km channel near the southern end of the Suez Canal, even as its revenue from the waterway has plunged since Yemen’s Houthi militants began attacking vessels in the Red Sea.
The Suez Canal Authority said in a statement that during a trial run two ships passed through a new stretch of the canal’s two-way section without incident.
Following the 2021 grounding of the container ship Ever Given that blocked the vital waterway for six days, Egypt accelerated plans to extend the second channel in the southern reaches of the canal and widen the existing channel.
Its revenue from the waterway, the gateway to the shortest route between Europe and Asia, has nevertheless tumbled since Yemen’s Houthi militants began attacking ships in the Red Sea in November 2023 in what they say is solidarity with Palestinian militants in Gaza.
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi said on Thursday that due to “regional challenges,” the country had lost approximately $7 billion in Suez Canal revenue in 2024, marking more than a 60 percent drop from 2023.
According to the Suez Canal Authority, the latest expansion extends the total length of the canal’s two-way section to 82 km from a previous 72 km. The canal is 193 km long in total.
“This expansion will boost the canal’s capacity by an additional 6 to 8 ships daily and enhance its ability to handle potential emergencies,” the Suez Canal Authority said in its statement.
Earlier this year, Egypt said that it was considering an additional expansion project separate to the 10 km channel extension.

Houthi rebels say new air raids hit northern Yemen

Updated 17 min 38 sec ago
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Houthi rebels say new air raids hit northern Yemen

  • Houthis say raids hit the Buhais area of Hajjah province’s Medi district

SANAA: Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels said new air raids hit the country’s north on Saturday, shortly after they claimed responsibility for a missile attack on Israel.
A Houthi military statement said the raids were carried out in the Buhais area of Hajjah province’s Medi district, blaming “US-British aggression.”
There was no immediate comment from London or Washington.
The Houthis made the same claim about a raid they said hit a park in the capital Sanaa on Friday.
Hostilities have also flared between the rebels and Israel in recent days after a series of Houthi missile attacks prompted deadly Israeli air strikes in rebel-held areas on Thursday.
Six people were killed, including four at Sanaa airport, where World Health Organization chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus was waiting for a flight.
On Saturday, the Houthis claimed they had “successfully” targeted the Nevatim base south of Jerusalem with a ballistic missile.
The Israelis had earlier said a missile launched from Yemen was shot down.
The Houthis, part of the “axis of resistance” of Iran-allied groups, have been firing at Israel and ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden in solidarity with Palestinians since the war in the Gaza Strip broke out last year.


Lebanon returns 70 officers and soldiers to Syria, security official says

Members of the security forces of the newly formed Syrian government stand guard at a security checkpoint on the Syrian border w
Updated 24 min 23 sec ago
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Lebanon returns 70 officers and soldiers to Syria, security official says

  • Many senior Syrian officials and people close to Bashar Assad have fled the country to Lebanon

Lebanon expelled around 70 Syrian officers and soldiers on Saturday, returning them to Syria after they crossed into the country illegally via informal routes, a Lebanese security official and a war monitor said.
Many senior Syrian officials and people close to the former ruling family of Bashar Assad fled the country to neighboring Lebanon after Assad’s regime was toppled on Dec 8.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), a London-based organization with sources in Syria, and the Lebanese security official said Syrian military personnel of various ranks had been sent back via Lebanon’s northern Arida crossing.
SOHR and the security official said the returnees were detained by Syria’s new ruling authorities after crossing the border.
The new administration has been undertaking a major security crackdown in recent days on what they say are “remnants” of the Assad regime. Several of the cities and towns concerned, including in Homs and Tartous provinces, are near the porous border with Lebanon.
The Lebanese security official said the Syrian officers and soldiers were found in a truck in the northern coastal city of Jbeil after an inspection by local officials.
Lebanese and Syrian government officials did not immediately respond to written requests for comment on the incident.
Reuters reported that they included Rifaat Assad, an uncle of Assad charged in Switzerland with war crimes over the bloody suppression of a revolt in 1982.
Earlier this month, Lebanese Interior Minister Bassam Mawlawi said top Assad adviser Bouthaina Shaaban had flown out of Beirut after entering Lebanon legally. In an interview with Al Arabiya, Mawlawi said other Syrian officials had entered Lebanon illegally and were being pursued.


Visiting Libyan official says discussed energy, migration with new Syria leader

Updated 28 December 2024
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Visiting Libyan official says discussed energy, migration with new Syria leader

  • Syrians fleeing war since 2011 and seeking a better life have often traveled to Libya in search of work or passage
  • Power in Libya is divided between the UN-recognized government based in the capital Tripoli and a rival administration in the east

DAMASCUS: A senior official from Libya’s UN-recognized government met Syria’s new leader Ahmed Al-Sharaa on Saturday and discussed issues including diplomatic relations, energy and migration.
“We expressed our full support for the Syrian authorities in the success of the important transitional phase,” Libyan Minister of State for Communication and Political Affairs Walid Ellafi told reporters after the meeting.
“We emphasized the importance of coordination and cooperation... particularly on security and military issues,” he said, while they also discussed cooperation “related to energy and trade” and “illegal immigration.”
Syrians fleeing war since 2011 and seeking a better life have often traveled to Libya in search of work or passage across the Mediterranean on flimsy boats toward Europe.
Ellafi said they also discussed “the importance of raising diplomatic representation between the two countries.”
“Today the charge d’affaires attended the meeting with me and we are seeking a permanent ambassador,” he added.
Power in Libya is divided between the UN-recognized government based in the capital Tripoli and a rival administration in the east, backed by military strongman Khalifa Haftar who also controls the south.
Representatives of Haftar’s rival administration in March 2020 opened a diplomatic mission in Damascus.
Before that, Libya had not had any representation in Damascus since 2012, following the fall and killing of longtime dictator Muammar Qaddafi in a NATO-backed uprising.
It was not immediately clear whether the charge d’affaires had been appointed since Sharaa’s Islamist group Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) and allied factions toppled Assad on December 8 after a lightning offensive.
Also on Saturday, images published by Syrian state news agency SANA also showed Sharaa meeting Bahrain’s strategic security bureau chief Sheikh Ahmed bin Abdulaziz Al-Khalifa.
No details of the discussions were provided.
On December 14, top diplomats from eight Arab countries including Bahrain called for a peaceful transition in Syria with United Nations and Arab League support following Assad’s overthrow.
A day earlier, the official BNA news agency reported that Bahrain’s King Hamad had told Sharaa that his country was ready to “continue consultations and coordination with Syria.”
Damascus’s new authorities have received envoys from across the Middle East and beyond since taking control as countries look to establish contact with Sharaa’s administration.


First war-time aid convoy reaches besieged south Khartoum

Updated 28 December 2024
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First war-time aid convoy reaches besieged south Khartoum

CAIRO: Civilians in a besieged area south of Sudan’s war-torn capital received their first aid convoy this week since the war began 20 months ago, local volunteers said.
A total of 28 trucks arrived in the Jebel Awliya area, just south of Khartoum, the state’s emergency response room (ERR), part of a volunteer network coordinating frontline aid across Sudan, said Friday.
The convoy included 22 trucks carrying food from the UN’s World Food Programme (WFP), one truck from Doctors Without Borders and Care, and five trucks loaded with medicine from the UN children’s agency, UNICEF.
The local group and UNICEF said the supplies would help meet the “urgent health and nutrition needs of an estimated 200,000 children and families.”
Jebel Awliya is one of many areas across Sudan facing mass starvation after warring parties cut off access.
Since the war began in April 2023 between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, nothing has gone in or out without both parties’ approval.
ERR volunteers endured months of negotiations, constant suspicion and threats of violence to secure even limited access.
“Access to the area has been essentially cut off due to the conflict dynamics,” UNICEF’s Sudan representative Sheldon Yett said, adding it took three months of talks to get the convoy through.
“The trucks were detained on more than one occasion, and drivers were understandably reluctant given the risks involved,” he told AFP.
The lack of access has also prevented experts from making an official famine declaration in Khartoum.
Famine has already taken hold in five areas of Sudan, a UN-backed report said this week.
The WFP says parts of Khartoum and Al-Jazira state, just to the south, may already be experiencing famine conditions, but it is impossible to confirm without reliable data.
Across the country, more than 24.6 million people — around half the population — are facing high levels of acute food insecurity.
Both sides have been accused of using starvation as a weapon of war against civilians.
The war has killed tens of thousands and uprooted more than 12 million people, causing one of the world’s largest humanitarian crises.