Iran mourns Nasrallah with ‘strategic patience’ and empty rhetoric

There is nothing to celebrate in the killing of Hassan Nasrallah, nor that of nearly 1,000 Lebanese citizens in two weeks of Israeli violence. Even among many who loathed everything Nasrallah stood for, there has been widespread sadness and disorientation at the sudden disappearance of a charismatic figure who played a pivotal role in national and regional politics for decades.

I have long been a critic of Hezbollah’s foremost allegiance being to Ayatollah Khamenei and Iran, at huge cost to Lebanon’s national interest. Nasrallah’s bold resistance to Israel’s occupation of Palestinian land, exemplified by the 2006 war, made him an iconic, Che Guevara-like figure — until Hezbollah utterly disgraced itself fighting on behalf of the Assad regime in Syria, and repeatedly showed itself to be the plaything of Tehran.

There is all-pervading trepidation at what comes next: an escalation in violence, a ground invasion of Lebanon by Israel, or other Iranian proxies entering the fray. Iran’s first reaction was to rush Khamenei to a safe location, highlighting the regime’s fears that it sits directly in the line of fire. After the 2006 war a chastened Nasrallah admitted that he would never have dragged Lebanon into that conflict if he had known what Israel’s bloodthirsty response would be: he did not live long enough to admit making the same mistake twice.

Israel’s decapitation of Hezbollah represents the death of the myth of Iran’s “Axis of Resistance,” which had been supposed to be a deterrent to Israel, protecting southern Lebanon, and a vanguard for liberating Jerusalem and eradicating Israel.

Recent developments demonstrate the vacuous futility of such rhetoric: Hezbollah did nothing to halt the mass killing in Gaza, responding with empty threats as Israel decimated the leadership of both Hamas and Hezbollah. Israel simultaneously knocked out Hezbollah’s pager communications network and put hundreds of the organization’s operatives in hospital. Then, with almost casual brutality, it took out Nasrallah himself, along with entire blocks of residential housing.

Hezbollah didn’t protect Lebanon, it placed the country in the line of fire. Paramilitaries in Syria, Iraq and Yemen played a similarly destabilizing role, making attacks by Israel and its allies far more likely. After Nasrallah’s death, Iranians complained that not only had these Arab proxies drained billions from the state purse, but they also risked dragging Iran directly into a regionalized conflict in which they had no stake.

Last week I was in New York, where, as Israel was striking Beirut, Iranian leaders such as President Masoud Pezeshkian were sipping tea at the UN General Assembly, discussing improved ties and renewed nuclear talks — deludedly out of touch with events.

This has all fatally undermined Tehran’s regional credibility. The Axis of Resistance proved to be a paper tiger, while the ayatollahs passively abandoned Hezbollah and Hamas to their fates. Many of us previously mocked these Tehran-worshipping proxies, observing that “Daddy” Khamenei would never come and rescue them if they faced annihilation. After last week, has Hezbollah finally comprehended this lesson?

Israel’s decapitation of Hezbollah represents the death of the myth of Iran’s “Axis of Resistance,” which had been supposed to be a deterrent to Israel, protecting southern Lebanon, and a vanguard for liberating Jerusalem and eradicating Israel.

Baria Alamuddin

Khamenei and his generals threatened to make Israel regret Nasrallah’s killing, and said his death was a harbinger of Israel’s destruction. But when asked why Iran had failed to avenge the 2020 death of Qassem Soleimani, and countless other Revlutionary Guard and Hezbollah commanders, the regime waffled on about “strategic patience” and awaiting the appropriate moment. Nasrallah now has eternity in which to await Tehran getting around to avenging him.

Nasrallah was a relative pragmatist who in recent months had fatefully sought to exert pressure on Israel, without provoking full-blown conflict. By eliminating Nasrallah and Hezbollah’s veteran leadership, Israel risks the organization falling into the hands of hot-headed hawkish subordinates whose first priority may be vengeance. Nasrallah was a godfather figure to vast armies of transnational paramilitaries, which Hezbollah trained and mobilized, who will also be anxious to exact a bloody price for Nasrallah’s death. But after their feared rocket arsenals proved puny and impotent in the face of Israel’s superior firepower, will Iran now choose to restrain them, lest at a stroke it loses all its regional cards?

All Iran’s current options are bad options: arousing the wrath of Israel and America by lashing out, or risking ridicule and irrelevance by failing to follow through on fire-breathing rhetoric. The danger is that Tehran learns the wrong lessons from these setbacks: despatching copious new funding and weapons to shore up its proxies, while rushing forward to acquire a nuclear deterrent. The West must vigorously act to prevent this eventuality.

Just as Soleimani’s death weakened Iran’s ability to control its regional proxies, the killing of Nasrallah and his commanders weakens Hezbollah’s ability to politically dominate Lebanon. There is a slender window of opportunity here for the Lebanese government to stave off conflict and radically cut Hezbollah’s all-pervading influence down to size, while slamming the door on Iranian hegemony. Hezbollah will appoint new leaders, but they’ll never enjoy a fragment of Nasrallah’s prestige and clout.

Similarly, in Iraq, Syria and Yemen, Iran-backed mafioso militias have permanently lost their aura of invincibility and legitimacy, while Iran’s regional dominance has been shown to be a cowardly mirage that disperses at the first sign of confrontation.

The supposedly almighty Axis of Resistance has for years been wielded as a blunt weapon with which to menace the region, yet at the first sign of trouble it behaved like a balloon pricked by a pin. Before these vengeful paramilitaries embark on further efforts to engulf the region in conflict, let’s sweep them aside and for the first time in decades see the Arab world take its destiny in its own hands.

• Baria Alamuddin is an award-winning journalist and broadcaster in the Middle East and the UK. She is editor of the Media Services Syndicate and has interviewed numerous heads of state.