The nuclear threshold in South Asia is dangerously low

The international geostrategic environment is at an inflection point. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the NATO members’ firm military assistance to Kyiv, Israel’s destruction of Gaza and the expansion of the war in Lebanon, Iran’s ballistic missile strikes at Israel, the stalemate in India-Pakistan relations, brewing tensions in the Korean Peninsula, and the increasing strategic competition between China and the US have all increased the probability of the use of nuclear weapons.  

President Vladimir Putin publicized a likely improvement in the Russian nuclear doctrine and posture. On September 25, he asked to change the use of nuclear forces as a “last resort” to safeguard the nation’s sovereignty. Since February 2022, he has signalled a readiness to use the ultimate weapon against Ukraine and even NATO members. Besides, the Kremlin withdrew its ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, which underlines that it is preparing for the testing of the new generation of nuclear weapons. The Russians’ increasing reliance on nukes is risky.

The United States Nuclear Posture Review declassified in October 2022, reveals that Americans have been investing tremendously in modernizing their nuclear arsenal. Nuclear weapons’ modernization means replacing old weapons with new ones, and the invention of a new generation of nuclear weapons necessitates their testing. The Americans have been contemplating redeploying tactical nuclear weapons in the Asia-Pacific to uphold the credibility of nuclear deterrence guarantees, often called a ‘nuclear umbrella’ to allies. However, the redeployment of nuclear weapons increases the tension in the regional strategic environment. China usually expressed reservations about the US nuclear umbrella upgrade in the Asia-Pacific. 

This raises the nuclear stakes in the Indian Ocean region and also intensifies the strategic vulnerability of Pakistan.

Dr. Zafar Nawaz Jaspal

Seoul is eyeing American tactical nuclear weapons and South Korea has expressed its desire to the Americans regarding the redeployment of tactical nuclear weapons. Besides, they have often signalled that if Americans refrain from providing them with nukes, they will develop indigenously tactical nuclear weapons. 

The escalating war in the Middle East and US naval destroyers shooting down recent Iranian inbound missiles could hasten Iran’s exit from NPT and overt nuclearization. 

The revamping of the Russian nuclear doctrine and modernization of the US nuclear arsenal could kickstart a chain reaction causing risky transformation in India and Pakistan’s nuclear postures. The shift in India and Pakistan’s nuclear posture further lowers the nuclear threshold in South Asia.

India commissioned a second nuclear-powered submarine— INS Arighat— into the Indian Navy in August. It is an improved version of its predecessor, INS Arihant, launched in 2017. The operationalization of Arighat marks a significant advancement in India’s strategic nuclear capabilities, revealing a shift in the country’s long-standing policy of minimum deterrence. This raises the nuclear stakes in the Indian Ocean region and also intensifies the strategic vulnerability of Pakistan.

The echo of the alarming situation in South Asia was heard at the 79th session of the United Nations General Assembly in New York. On September 27, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, during his address at UNGA, drew the participant’s attention toward the alarming developments in South Asia. He said, “Even more worryingly, it [India] is engaged in a massive expansion of its military capabilities, which are essentially deployed against Pakistan. Its military doctrines envisage a surprise attack and a limited war under the nuclear overhang.” India has been cherishing a limited war strategy in the South Asian nuclearized environment since February 2000.

India has rejected Pakistan’s proposals for a mutual strategic restraint regime in South Asia. Besides, its ruling elite has often threatened to cross the Line of Control and take over Azad Kashmir. Premier Shehbaz warned that Pakistan would respond decisively against any Indian aggression. Thus, India’s military adventurism invites Pakistan’s quid pro quo-plus response. The action-reaction military responses could escalate to the level of nuclear strike exchanges.  

To conclude, the US reforming extended deterrence arrangements in Europe and Asia-Pacific necessitates revamping China, North Korea, and Russia’s nuclear postures. These shifts beget advancements in India and Pakistan’s postures, entailing lowering the nuclear threshold in South Asia.  

– Dr. Zafar Nawaz Jaspal is an Islamabad-based analyst and professor at the School of Politics and International Relations, Quaid-i-Azam University. E mail: [email protected], X: @zafar_jaspal