BANGKOK: Death, detention and dissolution have decimated Aung San Suu Kyi’s political party, easing the way for groups backed by Myanmar’s ruling military to claim victory at elections expected next year, analysts say.
The death this week of National League for Democracy (NLD) vice president Zaw Myint Maung — a close confidante of Suu Kyi — was the latest blow to a party crippled by the junta’s crackdown.
It came after party co-founder Tin Oo — a military general turned democracy activist — died of old age in June.
Nobel laureate Suu Kyi remains enduringly popular in Myanmar and the NLD would undoubtedly win a third landslide victory if she was to lead it into a free election, analysts say.
But the junta dissolved the party last year for failing to re-register under a tough new military-drafted electoral law, and it is barred from any new vote.
State media said on Wednesday that junta chief Min Aung Hlaing “clearly reaffirmed” the military’s plans to hold elections next year.
Many in Myanmar would see the polls as a “cunning” attempt by the junta to “earn some veneer of legitimacy,” said Htwe Htwe Thein of Curtin University in Australia.
NLD members still inside the country are struggling to “reorganize” the party due to the junta’s continuing crackdown, one senior member recently released from prison told AFP, requesting anonymity.
The NLD was forged in the bloody aftermath of a failed democracy uprising in 1988 that catapulted Suu Kyi to global fame.
For decades it was the main democratic opposition to the military’s iron grip over Myanmar, with its members enduring harsh repression.
After the generals enacted democratic reforms, it won crushing election victories in 2015 and 2020, using the logo of a fighting peacock.
But in February 2021, hours before the new parliament was to be sworn in, the military mounted a coup and detained the NLD’s top leadership.
Weeks after the coup, former NLD spokesman Nyan Win died in custody of Covid-19.
Zaw Myint Maung died of leukaemia aged 72 on Monday, days after being released from military custody.
Suu Kyi is serving a lengthy jail sentence, as is former president Win Myint, following a trial in a junta court that critics say was a sham designed to remove them from politics.
She remains widely popular in Myanmar, although her international standing has waned over her failure to stop a brutal military crackdown on the Rohingya minority now the subject of a genocide case at the UN’s top court.
Around a dozen parties have been permitted to re-register so far for next year’s vote, including the military’s proxy Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP).
Main ally Beijing has backed the junta’s plans for the polls and this year invited the USDP and three other parties for talks in China.
Some younger members of the NLD have turned to armed struggle since the coup, joining “People’s Defense Forces” and ethnic rebels fighting the military — and breaching a key NLD tenet of non-violence.
A shadow “National Unity Government” set up to overturn the coup has also drawn NLD members away, while splits have emerged between those underground in Myanmar and those in exile, according to party sources.
Party members who have stayed inside the country have faced severe consequences in the junta’s crackdown.
Phyo Zeya Thaw, a hip-hop artist turned NLD lawmaker was executed by the junta in 2022, in Myanmar’s first use of capital punishment in decades.
Following the coup, he was accused by the junta of orchestrating several attacks on regime forces, including a shooting on a commuter train in Yangon that killed five policemen.
He was sentenced to death at a closed-door trial and executed, drawing huge criticism from rights groups.
“We will keep fighting for democracy against the regime,” a second senior NLD member said, also requesting anonymity to speak from inside Myanmar.
“We will be back.”
The NLD “has faced crushing repression for three decades and still holds together,” said independent Myanmar analyst David Mathieson.
Much hinges on its talisman Suu Kyi, 79, who languishes in a prison in the military-built capital, has not been seen in public for years and who has designated no successor, he added.
“What happens to the party after Suu Kyi’s eventual passing is the major question, and whether it could ever regroup and be a viable national force.”
Deaths and repression sideline Aung San Suu Kyi’s party ahead of Myanmar vote
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Deaths and repression sideline Aung San Suu Kyi’s party ahead of Myanmar vote
- Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi remains enduringly popular in Myanmar
- Many in Myanmar would see the polls as a ‘cunning’ attempt by the junta to ‘earn some veneer of legitimacy’
Ukraine sends food aid to Syria, says Zelensky
Zelensky said that 500 metric tons of wheat flour were already on their way to Syria as part of Ukraine’s humanitarian “Grain from Ukraine” initiative in cooperation with the United Nations World Food Programme.
“The wheat flour is planned to be distributed to 33,250 families or 167,000 people, in the coming weeks,” Zelensky said on X, adding: “Each package weighs 15 kilograms and can feed a family of five for one month.”
After the ouster of Bashar Assad, a close Russian ally, Ukraine has said it wants to restore relations with Syria.
Kyiv traditionally exports wheat and corn to countries in the Middle East, but not to Syria.
During Assad’s era, Syria imported food from Russia. But Russian wheat supplies to Syria have been suspended because of uncertainty, Russian and Syrian sources said earlier this month.
Ukraine’s exports were disrupted by Russia’s February 2022 invasion, which severely reduced shipments via the Black Sea. Ukraine has since broken a de facto sea blockade and revived exports from its southern port of Odesa.
Desertions spark panic, and pardons, in Ukraine’s army
- Manpower problems present a critical hurdle for Ukraine, which is losing territory to Russia at the fastest rate since the early days of the February 2022 invasion
UNDISCLOSED, Ukraine: Oleksandr deserted from the front line in eastern Ukraine after watching his fellow servicemen being pulverized by Russian bombardments for six months. Then, those remaining were ordered to counterattack.
It was the final straw for Oleksandr, 45, who had been holding the line in the embattled Lugansk region in the early months of the war. Even his commanding officer was reluctant to send his men back toward what looked like certain death.
So when Oleksandr saw an opening to save his life, he did.
“We wanted to live. We had no combat experience. We were just ordinary working people from villages,” the soft-spoken serviceman, who declined to give his last name, said.
His decision is just one of many cases plaguing the Ukrainian military, which has already suffered at least 43,000 losses in nearly three years of fighting, President Volodymyr Zelensky revealed this month.
The government is also struggling to recruit new troops.
Together, these manpower problems present a critical hurdle for Ukraine, which is losing territory to Russia at the fastest rate since the early days of the February 2022 invasion.
The issue was put under the spotlight in September when 24-year-old serviceman Sergiy Gnezdilov announced in a scathing social media post that he was leaving his unit in protest over indefinite service.
“From today, I am going AWOL with five years of impeccable soldiering behind me, until clear terms of service are established or until my 25th birthday,” he wrote.
The state investigation service described his statement as “immoral” and said it played into Russia’s hands. He was detained and faces up to 12 years in prison.
Figures published by the Ukrainian general prosecutor’s office show that more than 90,000 cases have been opened into instances of soldiers going absent without leave or deserting since Russia invaded in 2022, with a sharp increase over the past year.
Oleksandr said that after leaving the frontline, he remembered little from the year he spent at home in the Lviv region owing to concussions he suffered while deployed.
He recounted “mostly drinking” to process the horrors he witnessed but his guilt was mounting at the same time.
He ultimately decided to return after seeing young Ukrainians enlist or wounded troops return to battle — despite pleas from his family.
His brother was beaten during the historic Maidan protests in 2013 that toppled Ukraine’s pro-Kremlin leader, and later died.
His sister was desperate. “They’re going to kill you. I would rather bring you food to prison than flowers to your grave,” he recounted his sister telling him during a visit from Poland.
It was guilt, too, that motivated Buch, who identified himself by a military nickname, to return to battle.
The 29-year-old deserted after being wounded in fierce fighting in southern Ukraine in late 2022 during the liberation of Kherson city.
“Just staying under constant shelling gradually damages your mental state. You go crazy step by step. You are all the time under stress, huge stress,” he said of his initial decision to abscond.
In an effort to address manpower shortages, Ukrainian lawmakers in August approved an amnesty for first-time offenders who voluntarily returned to their units.
Both the 47th and 53rd brigades in December announced they would welcome back servicemen who had left the front without permission, saying: “We all make mistakes.”
Prosecutors said in early December that 8,000 servicemen that went absent without leave or deserted had returned in November alone.
Still, Siver, commander of the 1st Separate Assault Battalion, known as Da Vinci, who also identified himself by his military nickname, said the number of Ukrainian troops fleeing the fighting without permission was growing.
That is partly because many of the most motivated fighters have already been killed or wounded.
“Not many people are made for war,” said Siver, describing how his perceptions of bravery had been reshaped by seeing those who stood their ground, and those who fled.
“There are more and more people who are forced to go,” he said, referring to a large-scale and divisive army mobilization campaign.
But other servicemen interviewed by AFP suggested that systemic changes in military culture — and leadership — could help deter desertions.
Buch said his military and medical training as well as the attitudes of his superiors had improved compared to his first deployment, when some officers “didn’t treat us like people.”
Siver suggested that better psychological support could help troops prepare for the hardships and stress of battle.
“Some people think it’s going to be like in a movie. Everything will be great, I’ll shoot, I’ll run,” he said.
“But it’s different. You sit in a trench for weeks. Some of them are knee-deep in mud, cold and hungry.”
He said there was no easy solution to discouraging desertion, and predicted the trend would worsen.
“How do you reduce the numbers? I don’t even know how. We just have to end the war,” he said.
South Korea’s parliament impeaches acting president Han Duck-soo
- The motion led by opposition parties passed with 192 of the 300 votes amid rowdy scenes by ruling People Power Party members
SEOUL: South Korea’s parliament impeached acting President Han Duck-soo on Friday over a short-lived martial law, plunging the country deeper into political chaos, as the Constitutional Court said it would swiftly trial suspended President Yoon Suk Yeol.
The impeachment of Han, who has been acting president since Yoon was impeached on Dec. 14 for declaring martial law on Dec. 3, has thrown South Korea’s once-vibrant democratic success story into uncharted territory.
The motion led by opposition parties passed with 192 of the 300 votes amid rowdy scenes by ruling People Power Party members who surrounded the speaker’s podium chanting the vote was invalid and parliament had committed “tyranny.”
Ahead of the parliamentary session, opposition leader Lee Jae-myung said his Democratic Party, which has majority control of parliament, will go ahead with the plan to impeach the acting president, accusing Han of “acting for insurrection.”
“The only way to normalize the country is to swiftly root out all the insurrection forces,” Lee said in a fiery speech, adding the party was acting on the public order to eradicate those who have put the country at risk.
There has been overwhelming public support for Yoon’s removal, according to opinion polls conducted after his martial law attempt.
The plan for a vote to impeach Han was unveiled on Thursday by the main opposition Democratic Party after he declined to immediately appoint three justices to fill vacancies at the Constitutional Court, saying it would exceed his acting role.
Until just before voting began, it was unclear how many votes were needed to impeach Han as acting leader. The threshold for a prime minister is a simple majority, while a two-thirds majority is needed for a president.
Speaker Woo Won-shik declared a simple majority would constitute parliamentary approval.
Han said in a statement after the vote that he would step aside to avoid more chaos and will await a Constitutional Court ruling on his impeachment.
By law Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok will assume the acting presidency.
Choi earlier pleaded with parliament to withdraw the plan to impeach Han, saying it would do serious damage to the country’s economy.
The South Korean won retreated to 1,475.4 per dollar, down 0.53 percent at 0707 GMT ahead of the parliamentary vote.
The vote to determine Han’s fate comes on the same day the Constitutional Court held its first hearing in a case reviewing whether to overturn the impeachment and reinstate Yoon or remove him permanently from office. It has 180 days to reach a decision.
North Korean soldier captured in Ukraine died from injuries – South Korea’s spy agency
- The soldier was captured by the Ukrainian army
- Location where he was seized was unknown
SEOUL: South Korea’s spy agency said Friday it had confirmed that a North Korean soldier sent to back Russia’s war against Ukraine had been captured by Ukrainian forces.
Pyongyang has deployed thousands of troops to reinforce Russian troops, including in the Kursk border region where Ukraine mounted a shock border incursion in August.
“Through real-time information sharing with an allied country’s intelligence agency, it has been confirmed that one injured North Korean soldier has been captured,” South Korea’s National Intelligence Service said in a statement.
The soldier was captured by the Ukrainian army, an intelligence source told AFP, adding that the location where he was seized was unknown.
The first confirmation of the capture of a North Korean soldier came days after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Monday that nearly 3,000 North Korean soldiers had been “killed or wounded” so far.
Seoul’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) also said Monday that more than 1,000 North Korean soldiers have been killed or wounded.
The JCS had also said that Pyongyang is reportedly “preparing for the rotation or additional deployment of soldiers” and supplying “240mm rocket launchers and 170mm self-propelled artillery” to the Russian army.
Seoul’s military believes that North Korea was seeking to modernize its conventional warfare capabilities through combat experience gained in the Russia-Ukraine war.
North Korean state media said Friday that Russian President Vladimir Putin sent a New Year’s message to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, saying “the bilateral ties between our two countries have been elevated after our talks in June in Pyongyang.”
A landmark defense pact went into effect in December after the two sides exchanged ratification documents.
Putin hailed the deal in June as a “breakthrough document.”
‘Dangerous new era’: climate change spurs disaster in 2024
- This year was hottest in history, with record-breaking temperatures in atmosphere, oceans acting like fuel for extreme weather
- World Weather Attribution said nearly every disaster they analyzed over the past 12 months was intensified by climate change
PARIS: From tiny and impoverished Mayotte to oil-rich behemoth Saudi Arabia, prosperous European cities to overcrowded slums in Africa, nowhere was spared the devastating impact of supercharged climate disasters in 2024.
This year is the hottest in history, with record-breaking temperatures in the atmosphere and oceans acting like fuel for extreme weather around the world.
World Weather Attribution, experts on how global warming influences extreme events, said nearly every disaster they analyzed over the past 12 months was intensified by climate change.
“The impacts of fossil fuel warming have never been clearer or more devastating than in 2024. We are living in a dangerous new era,” said climate scientist Friederike Otto, who leads the WWA network.
That was tragically evident in June when more than 1,300 people died during the Muslim Hajj pilgrimage in Saudi Arabia where temperatures hit 51.8 degrees Celsius (125 degrees Fahrenheit).
Extreme heat — sometimes dubbed the ‘silent killer’ — also proved deadly in Thailand, India, and United States.
Conditions were so intense in Mexico that howler monkeys dropped dead from the trees, while Pakistan kept millions of children at home as the mercury inched above 50C.
Greece recorded its earliest ever heatwave, forcing the closure of its famed Acropolis and fanning terrible wildfires, at the outset of Europe’s hottest summer yet.
Climate change isn’t just sizzling temperatures — warmer oceans mean higher evaporation, and warmer air absorbs more moisture, a volatile recipe for heavy rainfall.
In April, the United Arab Emirates received two years worth of rain in a single day, turning parts of the desert-state into a sea, and hobbling Dubai’s international airport.
Kenya was barely out of a once-in-a-generation drought when the worst floods in decades delivered back-to-back disasters for the East African nation.
Four million people needed aid after historic flooding killed more than 1,500 people across West and Central Africa. Europe — most notably Spain — also suffered tremendous downpours that caused deadly flash flooding.
Afghanistan, Russia, Brazil, China, Nepal, Uganda, India, Somalia, Pakistan, Burundi and the United States were among other countries that witnessed flooding in 2024.
Warmer ocean surfaces feed energy into tropical cyclones as they barrel toward land, whipping up fierce winds and their destructive potential.
Major hurricanes pummelled the United States and Caribbean, most notably Milton, Beryl and Helene, in a 2024 season of above-average storm activity.
The Philippines endured six major storms in November alone, just two months after suffering Typhoon Yagi as it tore through Southeast Asia.
In December, scientists said global warming had helped intensify Cyclone Chino to a Category 4 storm as it collided head-on with Mayotte, devastating France’s poorest overseas territory.
Some regions may be wetter as climate change shifts rainfall patterns, but others are becoming drier and more vulnerable to drought.
The Americas suffered severe drought in 2024 and wildfires torched millions of hectares in the western United States, Canada, and the Amazon basin — usually one of Earth’s wettest places.
Between January and September, more than 400,000 fires were recorded across South America, shrouding the continent in choking smoke.
The World Food Programme in December said 26 million people across southern Africa were at risk of hunger as a months-long drought parched the impoverished region.
Extreme weather cost thousands of lives in 2024 and left countless more in desperate poverty. The lasting toll of such disasters is impossible to quantify.
In terms of economic losses, Zurich-based reinsurance giant Swiss Re estimated the global damage bill at $310 billion, a statement issued early December.
Flooding in Europe — particularly in the Spanish province of Valencia, where over 200 people died in October — and hurricanes Helene and Milton drove up the cost, the company said.
As of November 1, the United States had suffered 24 weather disasters in 2024 with losses exceeding $1 billion each, government figures showed.
Drought in Brazil cost its farming sector $2.7 billion between June and August, while “climatic challenges” drove global wine production to its lowest level since 1961, an industry body said.
