BANGKOK: Death, detention and dissolution have decimated Aung San Suu Kyi’s political party, easing the way for groups backed by Myanmar’s ruling military to claim victory at elections expected next year, analysts say.
The death this week of National League for Democracy (NLD) vice president Zaw Myint Maung — a close confidante of Suu Kyi — was the latest blow to a party crippled by the junta’s crackdown.
It came after party co-founder Tin Oo — a military general turned democracy activist — died of old age in June.
Nobel laureate Suu Kyi remains enduringly popular in Myanmar and the NLD would undoubtedly win a third landslide victory if she was to lead it into a free election, analysts say.
But the junta dissolved the party last year for failing to re-register under a tough new military-drafted electoral law, and it is barred from any new vote.
State media said on Wednesday that junta chief Min Aung Hlaing “clearly reaffirmed” the military’s plans to hold elections next year.
Many in Myanmar would see the polls as a “cunning” attempt by the junta to “earn some veneer of legitimacy,” said Htwe Htwe Thein of Curtin University in Australia.
NLD members still inside the country are struggling to “reorganize” the party due to the junta’s continuing crackdown, one senior member recently released from prison told AFP, requesting anonymity.
The NLD was forged in the bloody aftermath of a failed democracy uprising in 1988 that catapulted Suu Kyi to global fame.
For decades it was the main democratic opposition to the military’s iron grip over Myanmar, with its members enduring harsh repression.
After the generals enacted democratic reforms, it won crushing election victories in 2015 and 2020, using the logo of a fighting peacock.
But in February 2021, hours before the new parliament was to be sworn in, the military mounted a coup and detained the NLD’s top leadership.
Weeks after the coup, former NLD spokesman Nyan Win died in custody of Covid-19.
Zaw Myint Maung died of leukaemia aged 72 on Monday, days after being released from military custody.
Suu Kyi is serving a lengthy jail sentence, as is former president Win Myint, following a trial in a junta court that critics say was a sham designed to remove them from politics.
She remains widely popular in Myanmar, although her international standing has waned over her failure to stop a brutal military crackdown on the Rohingya minority now the subject of a genocide case at the UN’s top court.
Around a dozen parties have been permitted to re-register so far for next year’s vote, including the military’s proxy Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP).
Main ally Beijing has backed the junta’s plans for the polls and this year invited the USDP and three other parties for talks in China.
Some younger members of the NLD have turned to armed struggle since the coup, joining “People’s Defense Forces” and ethnic rebels fighting the military — and breaching a key NLD tenet of non-violence.
A shadow “National Unity Government” set up to overturn the coup has also drawn NLD members away, while splits have emerged between those underground in Myanmar and those in exile, according to party sources.
Party members who have stayed inside the country have faced severe consequences in the junta’s crackdown.
Phyo Zeya Thaw, a hip-hop artist turned NLD lawmaker was executed by the junta in 2022, in Myanmar’s first use of capital punishment in decades.
Following the coup, he was accused by the junta of orchestrating several attacks on regime forces, including a shooting on a commuter train in Yangon that killed five policemen.
He was sentenced to death at a closed-door trial and executed, drawing huge criticism from rights groups.
“We will keep fighting for democracy against the regime,” a second senior NLD member said, also requesting anonymity to speak from inside Myanmar.
“We will be back.”
The NLD “has faced crushing repression for three decades and still holds together,” said independent Myanmar analyst David Mathieson.
Much hinges on its talisman Suu Kyi, 79, who languishes in a prison in the military-built capital, has not been seen in public for years and who has designated no successor, he added.
“What happens to the party after Suu Kyi’s eventual passing is the major question, and whether it could ever regroup and be a viable national force.”
Deaths and repression sideline Aung San Suu Kyi’s party ahead of Myanmar vote
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Deaths and repression sideline Aung San Suu Kyi’s party ahead of Myanmar vote
- Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi remains enduringly popular in Myanmar
- Many in Myanmar would see the polls as a ‘cunning’ attempt by the junta to ‘earn some veneer of legitimacy’
NATO and the EU press China to help stop North Korea’s support for the war on Ukraine
- NATO says Russia is sending missile technology to North Korea in return
- NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said that “China bears particular responsibility here, to use its influence in Pyongyang and Moscow to ensure they cease these actions”
BRUSSELS: NATO and the European Union are ramping up efforts to persuade China to help get North Korea to stop sending troops and other support to Russia to back its war on Ukraine.
Up to 12,000 North Korean troops have been sent to Russia’s Kursk border region to help beat back Ukrainian forces there, according to US, South Korean and Ukrainian intelligence assessments. NATO says Russia is sending missile technology to North Korea in return.
With Russia exploiting its military advantage in Ukraine, the United States wants its allies to exert political pressure on China to rein in North Korea. Since Pyongyang and Beijing established diplomatic ties in 1949, their relationship has been described as being “as close as lips and teeth.”
One political lever is the threat of any increased Western activity in China’s backyard, the Asia-Pacific region. Just last week, the EU sealed security pacts with regional powers Japan and South Korea.
In an opinion piece for Politico last week, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said that “China bears particular responsibility here, to use its influence in Pyongyang and Moscow to ensure they cease these actions. Beijing cannot pretend to promote peace while turning a blind eye to increasing aggression.”
On a visit to Latvia on Thursday, Rutte warned that the exchanges of missile technology in particular pose “a direct threat, not only to Europe, but also to Japan, South Korea and the US mainland.” Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand now regularly attend NATO meetings.
On Wednesday, after talks with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, he also said that “the Euro-Atlantic and the Indo-Pacific really have to be seen as one theater, and not as two separate ones,” and that “our security, therefore, now more and more is global, and we have to look at this as a global issue.”
While North Korea and Russia have moved significantly closer, many observers say China is reluctant to form a three-way, anti-West alliance with them as it prefers a stable security environment to tackle economic challenges and maintain relationships with Europe and its Asian neighbors.
In a blog published on Thursday, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell detailed his recent trip to Japan and South Korea, where North Korea’s troop deployment and other assistance to Russia was on the agenda.
“This marks an escalation of the utmost seriousness, which was of course at the heart of our discussions with the Japanese and South Korean leaders,” wrote Borrell, who also held talks with Blinken on Wednesday.
Borrell hailed the conclusion during his trip of new security and defense partnerships with Japan and South Korea, “the first ones outside Europe.”
“The EU was certainly not born as a military alliance but, in the current geopolitical context, it can and must also become a global security provider and partner,” he wrote.
Blinken said this week that the Biden administration is determined in its final months to help ensure that Ukraine can keep fighting off the full-scale invasion next year by sending as much aid as possible to hold Russian forces at bay or strengthen its hand in any peace negotiations.
Russia open to any Ukraine peace talks if Trump starts them, envoy says
- “Trump promised to settle the Ukrainian crisis overnight. OK, let him try,” said Gennady Gatilov, Russia’s ambassador to the UN in Geneva
- “But if he starts or suggests something to start the political process, it’s welcome“
GENEVA: Russia is open to negotiations on an end to the Ukraine war if initiated by US President-elect Donald Trump, but any talks need to be based on the realities of Russian advances, Moscow’s ambassador to the UN in Geneva told reporters on Thursday.
Trump has repeatedly criticized the scale of Western aid to Kyiv and has promised to end the conflict swiftly, without explaining how. His victory in the Nov. 5 presidential election has spurred concerns in Kyiv and other European capitals about the degree of future US commitment to helping Ukraine.
“Trump promised to settle the Ukrainian crisis overnight. OK, let him try. But we are realistic people of course we understand that this will never happen,” said Gennady Gatilov, Russia’s ambassador to the United Nations in Geneva.
“But if he starts or suggests something to start the political process, it’s welcome.”
He added that any such negotiations needed to be based on what he called the “realities on the ground,” describing Ukraine as being on the back foot in the more-than-two-year conflict. Russian forces are advancing at the fastest pace in at least a year in Ukraine and now control about one-fifth of the country.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly said peace cannot be established until all Russian forces are expelled and all territory captured by Moscow, including Crimea, is returned. The “victory plan” he outlined last month maintained that provision, as well as an invitation for Ukraine to join NATO, long denounced by Russia.
Zelensky told European leaders in Budapest last week that concessions to Russia would be “unacceptable for Ukraine and suicidal for all Europe.”
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 triggered the biggest confrontation between Moscow and the West since the depths of the Cold War, with President Joe Biden driving efforts to isolate Russia.
Gatilov indicated Trump’s election represented a new possibility for dialogue with the United States, but was doubtful about a broader reset of relations, echoing earlier caution voiced by the Kremlin.
“The US political elite regardless of domestic political shifts, (Washington) consistently pursues a stance of containing Moscow and this orientation is deeply-rooted unfortunately and the change of administration does little to alter it,” he said.
“The only shift (that) might be possible is dialogue between our countries, something that has been lacking during the last several years,” he added.
Thousands of police officers but few visiting fans for France-Israel match after Amsterdam violence
- Some 4,000 police officers and security staff will be deployed around the Stade de France, with another 1,500 police on public transport
- Paris authorities on high alert following the violence in Amsterdam surrounding a match between Ajax and Maccabi Tel Aviv
PARIS: A heavy police presence but few visiting fans are expected when France hosts Israel in Nations League soccer on Thursday, a week after violence erupted in Amsterdam in connection with an Israeli club team’s visit.
French police chief Laurent Nuñez said 4,000 police officers and security staff will be deployed around the Stade de France, with another 1,500 police on public transport.
Paris authorities are on high alert following the violence in Amsterdam before and after a Europa League match between Ajax and Maccabi Tel Aviv. Dutch authorities say fans from both sides were involved in the unrest. The assaults on Maccabi fans sparked outrage and were widely condemned as antisemitic.
“What we learned from Amsterdam is that we need to be present in the public space including far away from the stadium,” and in public transports before and after the match, Nuñez said Thursday on French news broadcaster France Info.
Three months after hosting the Olympic closing ceremony, the atmosphere has gone from festive to fearful and the national stadium was expected to be three-quarters empty for the match. French President Emmanuel Macron and French Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau will be present. Former presidents Francois Hollande and Nicolas Sarkozy are also to attend.
Only 20,000 of 80,000 tickets have been sold with around 150 Israel supporters reportedly attending, escorted by police.
“We’ve tried to prepare for this match as normally as possible. But obviously none of us within the team can be insensitive to such a heavy context,” France coach Didier Deschamps said Wednesday. “It impacts the amount of supporters present tomorrow and everything that goes with it.”
The away match against Israel on Oct. 10 — which France won 4-1 — was played in Budapest, Hungary.
“These are situations the players are not accustomed to,” Deschamps said. “But we have to adapt.”
The low number of visiting fans comes after Israel’s National Security Council warned citizens abroad to avoid sports and cultural events, specifically the match in Paris.
Retailleau told French news channel TF1 on Tuesday that no specific threats were identified but “zero risk does not exist.”
Therefore, he said, exceptional measures are in place “before the match, during the match and after the match.”
The elite tactical unit of the French National Police, known as RAID, will be in the stadium and some police will be in plain clothes mingling with fans. There will also be heavy surveillance within Paris, including at Jewish places of worship and schools.
“It is out of the question that we take the risk of seeing a repeat of the dramatic events, of the manhunt, that we saw in Amsterdam,” Retailleau said, adding that postponing or moving the game elsewhere was ruled out.
“France does not submit, and the France-Israel match will take place where it’s supposed to,” he said.
In Amsterdam, a number of Maccabi fans attacked a cab and chanted anti-Arab slogans while some men carried out “hit and run” attacks on people they thought were Jews, according to city Mayor Femke Halsema.
After the match, parts of a large group of Maccabi supporters armed with sticks ran around “destroying things,” a 12-page report on the violence issued by Amsterdam authorities said.
There were also “rioters, moving in small groups, by foot, scooter or car, quickly attacking Maccabi fans before disappearing,” it said.
Protests erupted in Paris on Wednesday night against a controversial gala organized by far-right figures in support of Israel.
The game in Saint-Denis, the suburb north of Paris, is scheduled to kick off at 8:45 p.m. local time (1945 GMT).
A pro-Palestinian demonstration is organized on a Saint-Denis plaza at 6 p.m. local time to protest against the match.
Nine years ago, Stade de France was one of several locations during the Nov. 13 terror attacks in which 130 people died. France was playing Germany that night when two explosions happened outside the stadium.
Deschamps, Germany coach Joachim Löw and all of the players stayed together in the locker rooms for hours until it was safe to leave.
“It’s a sad date for us given what happened in 2015,” Deschamps said.
Dutch reflect on Amsterdam violence one week on
- The attacks have put Amsterdam, famous for its tolerance and diverse community, on edge, with police and authorities ramping up security measures
- Dutch authorities also reported Maccabi fans setting fire to a Palestinian flag before the match, chanting anti-Arab slurs
THE HAGUE: The Netherlands is still dealing with the social and political fallout of violence a week ago in the streets of Amsterdam between supporters of Maccabi Tel Aviv and men on scooters.
The attacks have put Amsterdam, famous for its tolerance and diverse community, on edge, with police and authorities ramping up security measures.
Supporters of the Maccabi Tel Aviv club were chased by men on scooters and beaten after a Europa League match against Ajax in Amsterdam on November 7.
Dutch authorities also reported Maccabi fans setting fire to a Palestinian flag before the match, chanting anti-Arab slurs and vandalising a taxi.
The violence took place against the backdrop of an increasingly polarized Europe, with heightened tensions following a rise in anti-Semitic, anti-Israeli and Islamophobic attacks since the start of the war in Gaza.
Police, prosecutors and other law authorities have launched a massive probe into the incidents surrounding the Maccabl-Ajax match, making eight arrests so far.
During a parliamentary debate late on Wednesday, Dutch Justice Minister David van Weel said the investigation was “racing ahead” and that police so far were targeting 29 suspects, based on images taken on the night.
Van Weel said investigations were hampered by perpetrators wearing hoodies and that the incidents happened at night.
At the same debate, far-right MP Geert Wilders, leader of the biggest party in the coalition government, claimed the perpetrators of the violence against Maccabi Tel Aviv football fans were “all Muslims” and “for the most part Moroccans.”
The anti-Islam Wilders called for the attackers to be prosecuted “for terrorism, lose their passports and kicked out of the country.”
But opposition parties condemned Wilders’ statements, saying he was “pouring oil on the fire, abusing the genuine fear and pain of one group to stoke hate against another.”
Many opposition politicians and commentators said although anti-Semitism was abhorrent, the violence was not one-side, pointing out Maccabi supporters had chanted anti-Arab slurs, vandalized a taxi and burned a Palestinian flag.
On Monday, Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof promised “hard action” against those responsible for attacks on Maccabi supporters, referring to the perpetrators as men “with a migration background.”
Schoof is widely expected to announce a raft of measures to combat anti-Semitism following a cabinet meeting on Friday.
This includes heavier sentences for people found guilty of anti-Semitism and a proposal by the Christian-based opposition CDA party that they should be obliged to make a visit to Dutch World War II deportation camps for Jews.
Both Amsterdam’s Jewish and Muslim communities are still reeling in the aftermath of last week’s incident.
Schoof told parliamentarians he regarded the outpouring of violence “as an integration problem” in the country and specifically in cities like Amsterdam.
Long known as a refuge for Jews, the Dutch capital’s reputation was tarnished when tens of thousands of Jewish residents were deported to Nazi death camps during the World War II, including Anne Frank and her family.
Today “the Jewish community is under a lot of pressure,” Chanan Hertzberger, chairman of the country’s umbrella Central Jewish Consultation (CJO) group said earlier this week after meeting Schoof.
“Real measures are needed against anti-Semitism, including new legislation and heavier sentences,” Hertzberger said.
But a representative of Amsterdam’s Muslim community said it was unfair from politicians to target a whole community because of the actions of a few.
“It is disappointing that the incident is being politicized and abused,” said Said Bouharrou, board member at the Contact Organization Muslim and Government.
“I am shocked by politicians who, instead of de-escalating, are actually adding fuel to the fire. There is talk of an integration problem and of taking away dual nationality,” he told the NOS public broadcaster.
“In this way, an entire community is being dismissed as a problem case. There are a million Muslims in the Netherlands who are doing incredibly well and who reject any form of anti-Semitism,” Bouharrou said.
Dutch police said on Thursday they had opened an inquiry into alleged police brutality during and after a banned pro-Palestinian protest in Amsterdam in which 281 demonstrators were detained.
Social media footage showed riot police hitting protesters with batons after they were bussed to the outskirts of the Dutch capital following Wednesday night’s protest.
Philippines braces for severe flooding as fifth typhoon hits in a month
- 4 previous storms that hit the country killed at least 159 people
- Authorities have started preemptive evacuations ahead of another tropical storm
MANILA: The fifth major storm to hit the Philippines in a month made landfall on Thursday as authorities warned that it could cause widespread flooding in a country already struggling to deal with the impact of previous disasters.
Four other storms — Trami, Kong-rey, Yinxing and Toraji — that had struck the Philippines since late October killed at least 159 people, displaced millions and caused widespread destruction mainly in the country’s north, having triggered landslides and inundated entire towns with severe flooding.
The government was “on red alert status due to the threats” of Typhoon Usagi — locally known as Ofel — that hit the country’s most populous island of Luzon at about 1:30 p.m. on Thursday, the Philippine Office of Civil Defense said.
Authorities were also bracing for yet another severe tropical storm, Man-yi, that was brewing in the Pacific and expected to hit the northern Philippines this weekend.
“Preemptive evacuation will be conducted starting today until Friday night in the Bicol region,” Cesar Idio, officer-in-charge at the Office of Civil Defense, said in a press briefing.
Hundreds of thousands of people were displaced in Bicol, southern Luzon, when Tropical Storm Trami swept the region last month.
Typhoon Toraji blew away from the country’s north only two days ago after unleashing floods, knocking down power lines and forcing more than 42,000 people to evacuate their homes.
“National and local governments are still actively responding to the residual needs brought about by Kristine, Leon, Marce and Nika, while response operations for Ofel and preparations for Pepito are ongoing,” Idio added, using the local names of the recent storms.
President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s administration has spent more than 1 billion pesos ($17 million) to aid typhoon-hit communities, the Presidential Communications Office said. The government has prepared about 2.2 billion pesos in funds and supplies this week for expected disaster response efforts.
Usagi had weakened and was downgraded from a super typhoon after it made landfall on Thursday, the national weather agency, PAGASA, said.
However, the agency warned that the typhoon still carried a “high risk of life-threatening storm surge” up to three meters in the low-lying and coastal provinces of Batanes, Ilocos Sur, Ilocos Norte and Cagayan.
The Philippines is the country most at risk from natural disasters, according to the 2024 World Risk Report.
Every year, the Southeast Asian nation sees about 20 tropical storms and typhoons affecting millions of people, as the weather becomes more unpredictable and extreme due to the changing climate.
In 2013, Typhoon Haiyan, one of the most powerful tropical cyclones ever recorded, displaced millions of people and left more than 6,000 people dead or missing in the central Philippines.
