Iran at a crossroads over support for Hezbollah

As Israel continues its military campaign in Lebanon, specifically targeting Hezbollah, the Iranian government faces a complex set of challenges. The ongoing conflict places Tehran in a situation in which its strategic options appear limited, forcing its leaders to weigh them up carefully.

The problem lies in a fundamental shift in the strategic equation. Hezbollah, which has long been regarded as a proxy force of Iran, traditionally serves the purpose of advancing Iranian interests by exerting pressure on regional adversaries such as Israel. However, recent events have reversed this dynamic. The Islamic Republic now finds itself in a position whereby it must actively protect Hezbollah to ensure the survival of its ally and the preservation of its regional strategy. This reversal represents a significant shift in Iran’s strategic calculus.

There is little doubt that Iran will continue attempting to safeguard Hezbollah, as the group represents a cornerstone of Iran’s regional influence. Several key factors underpin Tehran’s commitment. First and foremost, it has cultivated a deep, multilevel relationship with Hezbollah that spans more than four decades. This enduring partnership encompasses financial, military and ideological investments, making Hezbollah not just an ally but an essential component of Iran’s broader strategy to project power in the Levant. Hezbollah’s role in advancing Iranian interests cannot be overstated, while Tehran’s commitment to the group is rooted in decades of collaboration and mutual benefit.

Additionally, Hezbollah holds immense strategic value for the Iranian government. From a military standpoint, the group is viewed as a formidable force capable of engaging Israel and other adversaries in the region. The strategic importance of Hezbollah lies in its ability to wage asymmetric warfare, which allows Iran to challenge its enemies indirectly while avoiding the consequences of direct military engagement. For Iran, Hezbollah represents a crucial tool for maintaining its influence and shaping regional outcomes in a manner that serves its interests.

Hezbollah is not just an ally but an essential component of Iran’s broader strategy to project power in the Levant

Dr. Majid Rafizadeh

From a geopolitical perspective, Hezbollah is considered to play a critical role in shifting the balance of power in the region in favor of Iran. The group’s presence and military capabilities provide Iran with a significant advantage, allowing it to extend its reach and counter the influence of rival states such as Israel. Hezbollah’s alignment with Tehran also strengthens the so-called Axis of Resistance, a coalition of state and non-state actors opposed to Western and Israeli policies in the Middle East. Through Hezbollah, Iran can project its power far beyond its borders, complicating the efforts of its adversaries to contain its influence.

Hezbollah’s importance to Iran is further underscored by its role in countering Israel, Tehran’s primary regional adversary. In the broader regional rivalry, Hezbollah is considered a vital counterbalance to Israel’s military superiority. By supporting Hezbollah, Iran effectively maintains a forward defense posture, allowing it to challenge Israel without engaging in direct confrontation.

Despite these considerations, Iran finds itself in an extremely delicate situation. Nevertheless, while this current geopolitical situation is tense, it is not unprecedented for Tehran. Over the decades, Iran has mastered the art of maneuvering through complex regional conflicts, particularly when its key ally, Hezbollah, has come under threat. Iran’s historical precedence in handling such crises offers valuable insight into how it may continue to react.

The 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war serves as a prominent example of Tehran’s calculated diplomacy and indirect involvement in military confrontations. During that period, Iran provided Hezbollah with significant logistical, financial and military aid, but it carefully avoided direct military engagement, ensuring that the conflict did not escalate into a full-blown war between Iran and Israel.

Over the decades, Iran has mastered the art of maneuvering through complex regional conflicts

Dr. Majid Rafizadeh

During the 2006 conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, beyond military aid, Iran also provided Hezbollah with intelligence and strategic guidance, enhancing the group’s ability to engage Israeli forces effectively. In addition, financial support flowed from Tehran to Beirut, enabling Hezbollah to sustain its war efforts without exhausting its resources. This combination of military, logistical and financial support allowed Hezbollah to mount a robust defense against Israel, prolonging the conflict and eventually leading to a ceasefire.

Iran’s involvement in the 2006 war demonstrated its capacity to influence regional conflicts from behind the scenes, projecting power through proxy forces without facing the diplomatic and military fallout that would accompany direct intervention.

Similarly, between 1985 and 2000, during the south Lebanon conflict, Iran played a critical yet behind-the-scenes role in shaping the outcome of the protracted war between Hezbollah and Israel. Throughout this 15-year period, Israel maintained a military presence in southern Lebanon, aimed at combating Hezbollah and other factions. Iran, seeing an opportunity to expand its influence and undermine Israeli control in the region, began supporting Hezbollah in various ways.

Iran provided Hezbollah with arms, training and financial backing, transforming the group into a formidable resistance force. Iranian Revolutionary Guards were reportedly stationed in Lebanon to offer tactical training and operational guidance to Hezbollah fighters, which significantly enhanced their effectiveness on the battlefield. Over the years, Hezbollah’s increasing military prowess, bolstered by Iran’s ongoing assistance, culminated in the eventual withdrawal of Israeli forces from southern Lebanon in 2000.

In conclusion, the Iranian government is once again at a critical juncture, facing the challenge of protecting its non-state ally, Hezbollah. Drawing on its past experiences, Iran is likely to pursue a similar approach to the one it adopted during the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war and the south Lebanon conflict. This strategy allows Iran to maintain its influence in the region, while avoiding the disastrous consequences of a direct conflict with Israel and its Western allies.

• Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian American political scientist. X: @Dr_Rafizadeh