SINGAPORE: Iran’s missile barrage this month against Israel, after a similar large-scale attack in April, shows the value, as well as the shortcomings, of US and allied missile defenses in a potential Indo-Pacific conflict with China, analysts say.
Although differences between the two scenarios limit the lessons that can be learnt, the nearly 400 missiles of different types that Iran has fired at Israel this year offer the United States and China some idea of what works and what does not.
For Washington, the main takeaway from Iran’s Oct. 1 attacks — the largest sample yet of ballistic missiles fired against modern defenses — could be that Beijing’s missiles would be more difficult to intercept than Iran’s and that the ability to strike back would be needed to deter a mass attack, said Collin Koh of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.
“If we look purely through the lenses of deterrence, no longer can one pin hopes on deterrence by denial only — that is, the hope that effective defenses can blunt the efficacy of missile strikes,” Koh said. “Deterrence by punishment might have to become normative going forward.”
There is no immediate threat of missile conflict in the Indo-Pacific region. The distances, thousands of kilometers, are greater than in the Middle East. China’s weapons are more advanced, including manoeuvring warheads and precision guidance. And the target areas are scattered across the region, making a massed attack more difficult.
The United States has developed and deployed new weapons in the region this year to counter China, including the AIM-174B air-to-air missile and the ground-based Typhon missile battery in the Philippines, which can launch SM-6 and Tomahawk missiles.
The US Indo-Pacific Command and China’s Ministry of Defense did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

China’s missiles longer-range, less accurate
On the other hand, simply being better informed about how offensive and defensive systems perform after Iran’s missile fusillades — many were intercepted — may reduce the chance of conflict, said Ankit Panda of the US-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
“Any military force planning long-range missile strikes will need to plan around the possible effects of missile defenses,” Panda said. “Of course, without clarity on how well a given missile defense system might perform, this could lead to massive escalation.”
Israel’s layered air and missile defenses — from its long-range Arrow systems to the Iron Dome shield meant to handle slower, less complex threats — are tailored to the threats it faces: guided ballistic missiles from powers such as Iran mixed with unguided rockets launched from just over Israel’s borders.
The picture is much different in the Indo-Pacific region for the US and its allies, which use the Lockheed Martin and Raytheon Patriot, THAAD and sea-based Aegis systems for missile defense.
The accuracy of China’s DF-26, its most numerous conventional intermediate-range ballistic missile, is estimated to be as good as 150 meters (500 feet), according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Missile Defense Project. Its DF-21 is shorter-ranged, though some variants have an accuracy of 50 m.
Both can hit most US and allied targets in the region. The DF-26 can reach Guam, the site of major US military facilities. The Pentagon has estimated that China may have several hundred of the missiles.
By contrast, Iran’s missiles such as the Fattah-1 are theoretically more accurate — within tens of meters — but are much shorter-ranged. The number of these newer missiles is not public, but US Air Force General Kenneth McKenzie told Congress last year that Iran had more than 3,000 ballistic missiles of all types.
China’s capabilities outstrip Iran’s in other ways, said Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute. Missile attacks would most likely be coordinated with anti-satellite strikes and cyberwarfare, both designed to complicate defense.
“Western (integrated air and missile defense) systems in the Indo-Pacific would have a much tougher time defeating a large Chinese missile strike, comprising hundreds or even thousands of missiles, compared to what the Iranians are capable of,” Davis said.

WASHINGTON: The United States said on Sunday it will send US troops to Israel along with an advanced US anti-missile system, in a highly unusual deployment meant to bolster the country’s air defenses following missile attacks by Iran. US President Joe Biden said the move was meant “to defend Israel,” which is weighing an expected retaliation against Iran after Tehran fired more than 180 missiles at Israel on Oct 1.
The United States has been privately urging Israel to calibrate its response to avoid triggering a broader war in the Middle East, officials say, with Biden publicly voicing his opposition to an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear sites and his concerns about a strike on Iran’s energy infrastructure.
Pentagon spokesperson Major General Patrick Ryder described the deployment as part of “the broader adjustments the US military has made in recent months” to support Israel and defend US personnel from attacks by Iran and Iranian-backed groups.
But a US military deployment to Israel is rare outside of drills, given Israel’s own military capabilities. US troops in recent months have aided Israel’s defense from warships and fighter jets in the Middle East when it came under Iranian attack.
But they were based outside of Israel.
The Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system, or THAAD, is a critical part of the US military’s layered air defense systems and adds to Israel’s already formidable anti-missile defenses.
A THAAD battery usually requires about 100 troops to operate. It counts six truck mounted launchers, with eight interceptors on each launcher, and a powerful radar.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi warned earlier on Sunday that the United States was putting the lives of its troops “at risk by deploying them to operate US missile systems in Israel.”
“While we have made tremendous efforts in recent days to contain an all-out war in our region, I say it clearly that we have no red lines in defending our people and interests,” Araqchi posted on X. Still, experts say Iran has sought to avoid a direct war with the United States, making deployment of US forces to Israel another factor in its calculus going forward.
Iran launched missiles and drones at Israel in April. Then on Oct. 1, Iran fired more than 180 ballistic missiles at Israel amid another escalation in fighting between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon. Many were intercepted in flight but some penetrated missile defenses. US officials did not say how quickly the system would be deployed to Israel.
The Pentagon said a THAAD was deployed to southern Israel for drills in 2019, the last and only time it was known to be there.
Lockheed Martin, the biggest US arms maker, builds and integrates the THAAD system, which is designed to shoot down short-, medium- and intermediate-range ballistic missiles. Raytheon, under RTX, builds its advanced radar.