As Pakistan gears up for SCO moot, tough challenges confront the organization

Pakistan is hosting the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Council of Heads of Government meeting of ten regional countries on October 15 and 16 amid fast changing geopolitics. The grouping that represents the combined population of more than three billion promises to develop into a new model of multilateral cooperation, but regional conflicts have remained major obstacles in expanding connectivity and trade opportunities among member nations. 

A Eurasian political, economic and security organization, the SCO unites China, Russia, India, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Iran. The organization covers 40 percent of the world’s population and 30 percent of its GDP making it the largest regional economic bloc. The coming conclave is likely to discuss regional and global challenges and hopefully reach some understanding on common goals and objectives. 

Issues related to security and stability, the energy and food crisis, the impact of climate change and economic cooperation are likely to dominate discussion at the Islamabad meeting. The importance of the conference seems to have increased with the latest development in the region and outside. The conflict in the Middle East and the Ukraine war has long term implications for regional and global security. 

The gathering of top regional leadership with expected participation of Russian and Chinese prime ministers in Islamabad provides a unique opportunity to explore new avenues. India is being represented by its foreign minister instead of prime minister. Yet, the first visit by any senior Indian government official to Pakistan in nine years is highly significant given the strained relations between the two key members of the SCO. 

The first visit by any senior Indian government official to Pakistan in nine years is highly significant. 

Zahid Hussain

There is no likelihood of any meeting between Indian and Pakistani foreign ministers taking place on the sidelines of the parleys that could lead to any breakthrough in in their bilateral relationship. Nevertheless, Indian representation at a senior level would make the discussion on the way forward more constructive, provided the visiting minister does not use the forum to discuss bilateral disputes. 

Iran is also expected to be represented by the foreign minister of the newly elected government. The looming shadow of a regional conflagration as a result of Israel’s genocidal war in Gaza and the Zionist regime’s threat to target Iranian oil and nuclear facilities has increased the importance of the SCO meeting. The Central Asian countries are also expected to be represented at the top level. The gathering of these leaders underscores the importance of the regional forum in the context of the shifting sands of regional geopolitics. 

Unfortunately, the last SCO meeting hosted by India and virtually held in 2023 ended on a highly bitter note with member countries sparring with each other over regional disputes. Geopolitical tensions overshadowed the promise of multilateral cooperation. The Indian prime minister’s criticism of Pakistan and China in his inaugural address vitiated the atmosphere from the very outset of the parleys.

Traditionally, the member countries are not supposed to raise bilateral problems at SCO meetings and only discuss ways to increase multilateral cooperation. One hopes that bilateral disputes do not figure in the Islamabad meeting and the participants stay focused on multilateral cooperation. 

Starting in 1996 as a loose grouping between China, Russia and the three former Soviet Republics: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, the grouping was initially meant to resolve border disputes among these five countries. But it took a formal organizational shape in June 2001 with a much broader agenda of multilateral cooperation. 

With the inclusion of more regional countries including India and Pakistan, the SCO currently is the world’s largest regional bloc in terms of geographic scope and population. The inclusion of Iran in the fold last year has further broadened the SCO’s scope. It initially focused on counter-terrorism cooperation but has gradually expanded the area of collaboration to economic, cultural, educational and other fields. Regardless of conflicts among the members, the SCO provides a useful forum for cooperation on many issues. 

Notwithstanding interstate conflicts, the SCO over the past decade has cooperated in many fields, including counterterrorism. Most importantly, collaboration in the health sector in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic has been significant. There has also been some progress on expanding trade and connectivity among the SCO member nations. But they are certainly not enough given the vast potential for cooperation that exists. 

Despite all the underlining tensions, the organization has huge potential to become one of the world’s most prosperous and powerful economic and geopolitical blocs. A strong Eurasian alliance is not only imperative for economic cooperation but also for regional security. The SCO conference is taking place at a critical time with global security under serious threat. The challenges are not only in the domain of geopolitics but also in geoeconomics.

- Zahid Hussain is an award-winning journalist and author. He is a former scholar at Woodrow Wilson Centre and a visiting fellow at Wolfson College, University of Cambridge, and at the Stimson Center in DC. He is author of Frontline Pakistan: The struggle with Militant Islam and The Scorpion’s tail: The relentless rise of Islamic militants in Pakistan. Frontline Pakistan was the book of the year (2007) by the WSJ. His latest book ‘No-Win War’ was published this year. X: @hidhussain