The bigger loser in the deterioration of ties between Islamabad and Kabul, is Islamabad
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In a notable exclusion, Pakistan did not list Afghanistan as an attendee at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) moot which it has just concluded in Islamabad. Pakistan’s relations with Afghanistan have severely deteriorated for more than a year, and this latest snub follows a slew of remarks by Pakistan’s Permanent Representative to the UN last month, in his address to the General Assembly.
In the address, Pakistan formally accused the Kabul government of hosting and protecting leaders of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), enabling them to launch attacks against Pakistani forces and installations. This was the first time the Taliban have been held responsible by Islamabad in such a high world forum. Furthermore, the criticism of the Taliban government was repeated a few days later by Pakistan’s Prime Minister at the General Assembly as well.
Islamabad has chosen to take a clear stand on the issue of militant attacks within Pakistan by ignoring certain ground realities and taking advantage of the Taliban’s international isolation.
What do the Taliban gain by patronizing an outfit like TTP? Nothing. On the other hand, it loses the support and sympathy of a very important neighbor. Why should Taliban lend support to a militant outfit that is no longer relevant in the scheme of things? In fact, TTP has become a liability for the Taliban. But because of continued tensions and suspicions that mark relations between Islamabad and Kabul, the two sides have not been able to engage in meaningful negotiations to address the many irritants that mar bilateral relations.
Taliban have failed to realize the gravity of the situation by preferring to stay isolated and not working to engage the world on issues such as women’s right to work and higher education for girls. The regime has however, achieved notable successes on many other fronts like opening a new canal, new roads and undertaking to build a new city. Had there been better understanding and close cooperation between Islamabad and Kabul, there would have been hope and expectation for fresh initiatives to bring about some flexibility in policies to end the country’s isolation.
Pakistan hopes for breakthroughs in the Turkmenistan gas supply and electricity import from Tajikistan. But this dream is impossible without improving ties with Afghanistan first.
Rustam Shah Mohmand
Surprisingly, Pakistan, which has enormous stakes in the peace and stability of its western neighbor, appears to have overlooked the urgency of taking vigorous new measures to forcefully engage the Taliban leadership particularly Haibatullah Akhunzada, to help break the deadlock on the issue of recognition. On the one hand, hopes in Pakistan are pinned to a breakthrough in the Turkmenistan gas supply as well as the benefits of importing electricity from Tajikistan. But this dream is impossible without improving ties with Afghanistan first.
How then, does one expect the Taliban will ‘reciprocate’ gestures of hostility, of defiance and of insults coming from Pakistan over and over again? Where is Islamabad’s foresight, when it adopts a policy of belligerence toward a close neighbor facing the monumental agenda of reconstruction and rehabilitation?
Pakistan could have pursued more favorable options. Islamabad must realize too much is at stake. Having troubled relations with India, Iran and now Afghanistan does not convey the image of a country ridden by multiple crises of militancy, of governance, of absence of civilian supremacy and of huge debt.
Afghanistan sits on mineral wealth of more than $1 trillion. And this is only the value of proven reserves. China is making huge investments in copper, in oil and gas and other sectors. Afghanistan is reaching out to countries in Central Asia, expanding economic cooperation and its exports to Iran have already reached $700 mln. The only country in the region where the economic clock is ticking in the reverse direction is Pakistan which has seen bilateral trade plummet to a new low.
Rather than streamlining the communication and cross border movement of goods, new hurdles are being created in the passage of trucks. Perishable items like food and vegetables have to then be off-loaded and destroyed, causing huge losses to traders. Visas take four to six months to issue, causing deep pain and frustration among the population on the other side of the border. It is mismanagement, a lack of vision and a lack of pragmatism on Pakistan’s part.
The sooner these issues are addressed and a reappraisal of policy is made, the better. In the meantime, Afghanistan will continue to look for allies and friends in Central Asia; Iran, India, Turkiye, Russia and of course China. The damage to Pakistan on the other hand, could become irreversible.
- Rustam Shah Mohmand is a specialist of Afghanistan and Central Asian Affairs. He has served as Pakistan’s ambassador to Afghanistan and also held position of Chief Commissioner Refugees for a decade.
