Why the Arab-American vote is not just about the Middle East conflict

An- Rayshow - Joseph Haboush 1
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Updated 02 November 2024
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Why the Arab-American vote is not just about the Middle East conflict

  • New survey conducted by Arab News and YouGov captures the nuances and complexities of the important demographic’s priorities
  • Al-Arabiya’s Joseph Haboush and Arab News’s Tarek Ali Ahmad analyzed the findings on the Ray Hanania Radio Show

CHICAGO/LONDON: The Arab American voter base, often viewed primarily through the lens of Middle East concerns like the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, presents a far more nuanced picture in the upcoming US elections, experts have told Arab News.

Discussing the preview of a new survey conducted by Arab News and YouGov, Joseph Haboush, Washington correspondent for Al Arabiya English, and Tarek Ali Ahmad, head of Arab News’ Research & Studies Unit, said that while the Palestinian issue remains significant, Arab Americans are equally focused on domestic issues like the economy, border security and hate speech.

“The issue of Palestine is not as prevalent among the Arab American voters as one might think,” Haboush said.




The poll results suggest that Arab American voters are focused on both domestic issues and the Middle East conflict, but believe that Trump, rather than Harris, is more likely to end the ongoing wars. (Getty Images/File)

A Lebanese American, Haboush said that many Arab Americans, particularly those of Lebanese origin, have conflicting views on Palestine due to Lebanon’s own complex history with the Palestinian community during its civil war.

Some blame the Palestinians for their role in the conflict, while others view the matter differently, Haboush said during the taping of “The Ray Hanania Radio Show” on Thursday.

“It’s interesting that it might not be as high of a priority among the Arab American voters as an outsider might think.”




The poll results suggest that Arab American voters are focused on both domestic issues and the Middle East conflict, but believe that Trump, rather than Harris, is more likely to end the ongoing wars. (Getty Images/File)

Lebanon’s demographic shift, fueled by the influx of Palestinians in 1948 and 1967, contributed to tensions that culminated in the Lebanese Civil War from 1975 to 1990.

The conflict, pitting Palestinian and Lebanese Muslim forces against Christian militias, drew in regional powers like Syria, Israel and Iran, leading to devastating consequences.

The war left Lebanon in a fragile sectarian balance that persists today.




A cloud of smoke erupts following an Israeli airstrike on Beirut's southern suburbs on October 19, 2024. (AFP)

Many Lebanese fled the violence, seeking refuge in the US and Europe, where they established communities that, while preserving Lebanese heritage, have become increasingly integrated into local society and politics.

With the 2024 election shaping up to be a head-to-head race between Republican nominee Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris, Arab American voters are weighing multiple priorities. The survey shows that these voters, who have often been portrayed as a monolithic bloc driven by foreign policy, are just as concerned about bread-and-butter issues facing their daily lives.

This signals a shift in priorities, where domestic economic challenges are competing with longstanding foreign policy issues for Arab Americans’ attention.

“The poll that was conducted by YouGov and Arab News essentially revealed that Arab Americans are nearly evenly split in their support for two major presidential candidates, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris,” Arab News’s Ali Ahmad said.




Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris (left) and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump campaign in the US state of Michigan, a key battleground state for the two  candidates, on October 19, 2024. (Getty Images/AFP) 

He added that while only 4 percent favored third-party candidate Jill Stein — known for criticizing US support for Israel — a small segment of undecided voters could play a crucial role, particularly in battleground states such as Michigan, where the Arab American community could sway the election outcome.

The Biden administration has faced heavy criticism for its unwavering support of Israel’s military actions against Hamas and Hezbollah, pushing the region to the brink of a wider conflict involving Iran’s “Axis of Resistance.”

The alliance, comprising Tehran-backed militias in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and Yemen, has fueled a tit-for-tat escalation of violence, with diplomats worldwide scrambling to prevent further chaos.

Haboush argued that Washington, despite co-leading negotiations for ceasefires in Gaza and Lebanon, has failed to effectively leverage its diplomatic power, “putting a bit of a dent on the US image abroad”

Despite that, 52 percent of Arab Americans surveyed want the US to either maintain or increase its military presence in the region, Haboush highlighted.

“They want the US to kind of work its diplomatic channels, (and) at the same time they don’t want the US to leave, according to this poll, at least from a military point of view. Because, I think, the belief is that once the military presence is gone, just the overall interest is gone,” Haboush said, adding that the survey results reflect a belief in the value of US involvement, despite recent diplomatic shortcomings.

This sentiment emerged as Israel on Thursday confirmed the death of Yahya Sinwar, the head of Hamas and mastermind of the Oct. 7 attacks where 1,200 people were killed, mostly civilians, and 250 abducted, killed during a patrol in Rafah in southern Gaza.

Sinwar’s death, widely seen as pivotal, could mark a new phase in the conflict that has claimed more than 42,000 lives in Gaza and more than 2,400 in Lebanon, following clashes between Israel and Hezbollah.




In this Oct. 21, 2011 photo, Yahya Sinwar, a founder of Hamas' military wing, talks during a rally in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip. (AP Photo/File)

While Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to press on, some officials view Sinwar’s death as a potential opening for peace, providing a chance for the more than year-long conflict in Gaza to finally end, and for Israeli hostages to be brought home.

With less than 20 days until the election, analysts expect that US President Joe Biden may seize this window to push for a ceasefire, a move that could influence the election and boost the campaign of Kamala Harris, who is viewed by respondents of the survey as less likely to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict compared to Republican nominee Donald Trump.

“There’s a notable division in who Arab Americans believe is better to handle the situation (in Gaza and Lebanon). Many of them feel that both candidates are simply incapable regarding Middle East issues,” Ali Ahmad said, adding that “a significant enough amount (of voters) to alter this election” have veered toward Stein in protest of US foreign policy.




Poll by the US civil rights group ADC in July showing independent presidential aspirant Jill Stein being a better option by American Muslims to the Republican and Democratic nominees. (ADC image

“The results showed that a majority of those polled, 40 percent, considered themselves as Democrat, while 28 percent considered themselves Republican,” he said.

“Yet, they found that Donald Trump was more likely to be the person who would be able to end the Palestine-Israel conflict.”

The fact that “the person that’s closer to the aggressor” is seen as more likely to resolve the conflict, is “kind of paradoxical in a sense,” Ali Ahmad added.

Further complicating the picture, more than one-third of respondents expressed equal support for both a two-state solution and a one-state model, where Israelis and Palestinians share equal rights.

As Haboush said on “The Ray Hanania Radio Show,” the Palestinian issue, while important, does not entirely overshadow other regional concerns.

He argued that people are still deeply invested in what happens in the Middle East, particularly the situation with Iran, highlighting his belief that Arab Americans supposedly wanting a more “hawkish approach” over a diplomatic one “wasn’t 100-percent accurate.”

Haboush said that although foreign policy is relevant, the 2024 election will likely be driven by domestic issues that deeply resonate with Arab American voters, such as the economy, border control and discrimination. The survey, designed to provide clearer insights into Arab American priorities, reveals a much more nuanced picture than anticipated.

“If you look domestically, the voter base would traditionally align with the conservative party,” Haboush said. “Even when you look at foreign policy, I thought a lot (of people) preferred this more hawkish approach, yet the poll says a little bit otherwise.”

He also pointed out that the younger generation of Arab Americans, many of whom have been vocal on social media about the conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon and may be first-time voters, adds another layer of complexity. “So, it’s just difficult to gauge,” he said.

With the election approaching and the race in a tight balance, Haboush said that both candidates are increasingly aware of the Arab American vote’s importance. This has been reflected in growing media attention to the demographic, as campaigns focus on undecided voters in key battleground states.

“The mainstream media in the US don’t understand the diversity of the Arab American community,” he said. “For decades, the Arab American has just been portrayed as a victim of war and conflict immigration.

Haboush criticized the media for selective coverage, saying that outlets “cover the Arab American polling in great detail (because) it fits into some sort of narrative … (but) don’t see the productive role that they’ve played generation after generation in this country, and a number of factors playing to that.”

The full survey, set to be released in the coming days, promises more detailed insights into Arab American voting patterns and the issues shaping their decisions, on one of the most anticipated elections in recent history.

As the US prepares for a head-to-head race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, the Arab American vote may prove more pivotal — and complex — than ever before.

“The Ray Hanania Radio Show” airs every Thursday on the U.S. Arab Radio Network on WNZK AM 690 Radio in Michigan at 5 p.m. EST, with a rebroadcast the following Monday. The show, sponsored by Arab News, is also available via podcast at ArabNews.com.rayradioshow and Facebook.com/ArabNews.
 

 


France’s president will visit Greenland in a show of EU unity, Danish leader says

Updated 3 sec ago
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France’s president will visit Greenland in a show of EU unity, Danish leader says

Frederiksen and the French leader said they will meet in the semiautonomous Danish territory on June 15
Frederiksen acknowledged the “difficult foreign policy situation in recent months”

COPENHAGEN: French President Emmanuel Macron will travel to Greenland next weekend, the Danish prime minister’s office said Saturday — a visit by a high-profile European Union leader in the wake of US expressions of interest in taking over the mineral-rich Arctic island.

Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen and the French leader said they will meet in the semiautonomous Danish territory on June 15, hosted by Greenland’s new prime minister, Jens-Frederik Nielsen.

The visit by Macron, whose nuclear-armed country has one of the EU’s strongest militaries, comes as US President Donald Trump hasn’t ruled out using force to carry out his desire for the resource-rich and strategically located island to become part of the United States.

While the issue of US interest in Greenland has drifted from the headlines in recent weeks, Nielsen said in late April that such comments by US leaders have been disrespectful and that Greenland will never be “a piece of property” that anyone can buy.

In the statement Saturday, Frederiksen acknowledged the “difficult foreign policy situation in recent months” but praised “great international support” for Greenland and Denmark.

“President Macron’s upcoming visit to Greenland is yet another concrete testament to European unity,” she said, alluding to the membership of France and Denmark in the 27-member-country EU.

The three leaders were expected to discuss security in the North Atlantic and the Arctic, as well as issues of economic development, climate change and energy during the visit, her office said.

Wagner Group leaving Mali after heavy losses but Russia’s Africa Corps to remain

Updated 7 min 2 sec ago
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Wagner Group leaving Mali after heavy losses but Russia’s Africa Corps to remain

“Mission accomplished. Private Military Company Wagner returns home,” the group announced
Mali, along with neighbors Burkina Faso and Niger, has for more than a decade battled an insurgency fought by armed groups

DAKAR: The Russia-backed Wagner Group said Friday it is leaving Mali after more than three and a half years of fighting Islamic extremists and insurgents in the country.

Despite Wagner’s announcement, Russia will continue to have a mercenary presence in the West African country. The Africa Corps, Russia’s state-controlled paramilitary force, said on its Telegram channel Friday that Wagner’s departure would not introduce any changes and the Russian contingent will remain in Mali.

“Mission accomplished. Private Military Company Wagner returns home,” the group announced via its channel on the messaging app Telegram. It said it had brought all regional capitals under control of the Malian army, pushed out armed militants and killed their commanders.

Mali, along with neighbors Burkina Faso and Niger, has for more than a decade battled an insurgency fought by armed groups, including some allied with Al-Qaeda and the Daesh group.

As Western influence in the region has waned, Russia has sought to step into the vacuum, sweeping in with offers of assistance. Moscow initially expanded its military cooperation with African nations by using the Wagner Group of mercenaries. But since the group’s leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, was killed in a plane crash in 2023, after mounting a brief armed rebellion in Russia that challenged the rule of President Vladimir Putin, Moscow has been developing the Africa Corps as a rival force to Wagner.

Africa Corps is under direct command of the Russian defense ministry.

According to US officials, there are around 2,000 mercenaries in Mali. It is unclear how many are with Wagner and how many are part of the Africa Corps.

Beverly Ochieng, a security analyst specializing in the Sahel for Control Risks consultancy, said the Russian defense ministry had been negotiating with Mali to take on more Africa Corps fighters and for Wagner mercenaries to join Russia’s state-controlled paramilitary force.

“Since the death of Prigozhin, Russia has had this whole plan to then make the Wagner Group fall under the command of the Ministry of Defense. One of the steps they made was to revamp or introduce the Africa Corps, which is the way in which the Russian paramilitaries would retain a presence in areas where the Wagner group has been operating,” Ochieng said.

Wagner has been present in Mali since late 2021 following a military coup, replacing French troops and international peacekeepers to help fight the militants. But the Malian army and Russian mercenaries struggled to curb violence in the country and have both been accused of targeting civilians.

Last month, United Nations experts urged Malian authorities to investigate reports of alleged summary executions and forced disappearances by Wagner mercenaries and the army.

In December, Human Rights Watch accused Malian armed forces and the Wagner Group of deliberately killing at least 32 civilians over an 8-month span.

The announcement of Wagner’s withdrawal comes as the Malian army and the Russian mercenaries suffered heavy losses during attacks by the Al-Qaeda linked group JNIM in recent weeks.

Last week, JNIM fighters killed dozens of soldiers in an attack on a military base in central Mali.

Rida Lyammouri, a Sahel expert at the Morocco-based Policy Center for the New South, said the major losses might have caused the possible end of Wagner’s mission.

“The lack of an official and mutual announcement from both the Malian authorities and Wagner indicate possible internal dispute which led to this sudden decision. Simultaneously, this could point to a new framework for Russian presence in the country,” he said.

Replacing Wagner with Africa Corps troops would likely shift Russia’s focus in Mali from fighting alongside the Malian army to training, said Ulf Laessing, head of the Sahel program at the Konrad Adenauer Foundation.

“Africa Corps has a lighter footprint and focuses more on training, providing equipment and doing protection services. They fight less than the ‘Rambo-type’ Wagner mercenaries,” Laessing said.

‘Return to your country’ Kabul tells Afghans rebuffed by Washington

Updated 40 min 26 sec ago
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‘Return to your country’ Kabul tells Afghans rebuffed by Washington

  • Akhund urged Afghans to return to their country, saying they would be protected even if they worked with US-led forces
  • “You will not face abuse or trouble”

KABUL: The Taliban government on Saturday urged Afghans hoping to emigrate to the United States to instead return to Afghanistan, after Washington tightened entry conditions.

US President Donald Trump this week announced a travel ban targeting 12 countries, including Afghanistan, which his proclamation said lacked “competent” central authorities for processing passports and vetting.

Commenting on the ban on Saturday, Prime Minister Hassan Akhund urged Afghans to return to their country, saying they would be protected even if they worked with US-led forces in the two-decade fight against the Taliban insurgency.

“For those who are worried that America has closed its doors to Afghans... I want to tell them, ‘Return to your country, even if you have served the Americans for 20 or 30 years for their ends, and ruined the Islamic system’,” he said in a speech marking the Eid Al-Adha holiday, broadcast by state media.

“You will not face abuse or trouble,” he said, making reassurances that the Taliban Supreme Leader Hibatullah Akhundzada had “granted amnesty for all.”

After surging to power in 2021, Taliban authorities announced a general amnesty for Afghans who worked with the Western-backed forces and government. However, the United Nations has recorded reports of extrajudicial killings, detentions and abuses.

In the past four years, the Taliban government has imposed a strict view of Islamic law and restrictions on women which the UN says amount to “gender apartheid.”

Afghans fled in droves to neighboring countries during decades of conflict, but the chaotic withdrawal of US-led troops saw a new wave clamouring to escape Taliban government curbs and fears of reprisal for working with Washington.

The United States has not had a working embassy in Afghanistan since 2021 and Afghans must apply for visas in third countries, principally Pakistan which has recently ramped up campaigns to expel Afghans.

Since Trump returned to the White House in January, Afghans have gradually seen their chances of migrating to the United States or staying there shrink.

Trump administration orders have disrupted refugee pathways and revoked legal protections temporarily shielding Afghans from deportation starting in July.


Ukrainian attack damaged 10 percent of Russia’s strategic bombers, Germany says

Updated 07 June 2025
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Ukrainian attack damaged 10 percent of Russia’s strategic bombers, Germany says

  • “More than a dozen aircraft were damaged, TU-95 and TU-22 strategic bombers as well as A-50 surveillance planes,” Freuding said
  • US estimates that Ukraine’s audacious drone attack hit as many as 20 Russian warplanes

BERLIN: A Ukrainian drone attack last weekend likely damaged around 10 percent of Russia’s strategic bomber fleet and hit some of the aircraft as they were being prepared for strikes on Ukraine, a senior German military official said.

“According to our assessment, more than a dozen aircraft were damaged, TU-95 and TU-22 strategic bombers as well as A-50 surveillance planes,” German Major General Christian Freuding said in a YouTube podcast reviewed by Reuters ahead of its publication later on Saturday.

The affected A-50s, which function similarly to NATO’s AWACS planes by providing aerial situational awareness, were likely non-operational when they were hit, said the general who coordinates Berlin’s military aid to Kyiv and is in close touch with the Ukrainian defense ministry.

“We believe that they can no longer be used for spare parts. This is a loss, as only a handful of these aircraft exist,” he said. “As for the long-range bomber fleet, 10 percent of it has been damaged in the attack according to our assessment.”

The United States estimates that Ukraine’s audacious drone attack hit as many as 20 Russian warplanes, destroying around 10 of them, two US officials told Reuters, and experts say Moscow will take years to replace the affected planes.

Despite the losses, Freuding does not see any immediate reduction of Russian strikes against Ukraine, noting that Moscow still retains 90 percent of its strategic bombers which can launch ballistic and cruise missiles in addition to dropping bombs.

“But there is, of course, an indirect effect as the remaining planes will need to fly more sorties, meaning they will be worn out faster, and, most importantly, there is a huge psychological impact.”

Freuding said Russia had felt safe in its vast territory, which also explained why there was little protection for the aircraft.

“After this successful operation, this no longer holds true. Russia will need to ramp up the security measures.”

According to Freuding, Ukraine attacked two air fields around 100 kilometers (62 miles) from Moscow, as well as the Olenya air field in the Murmansk region and the Belaya air field, with drones trained with the help of artificial intelligence.

A fifth attack on the Ukrainka air field near the Chinese border failed, he said.

The bombers that were hit were part of Russia’s so-called nuclear triad which enables nuclear weapons deployment by air, sea and ground, he added.


For Rohingya mothers, Eid marks rare chance to serve meat for family

Updated 07 June 2025
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For Rohingya mothers, Eid marks rare chance to serve meat for family

  • Around 1.3 million Rohingya refugees living in Bangladesh are dependent on food aid
  • Their meals normally lack proper nutrition, as assistance consists mostly of rice, lentils, oil

DHAKA: As she prepared for Eid Al-Adha celebrations on Saturday, Nikash Tara could not recall the last time she served a proper meal for her family.

In the cramped camps of Cox’s Bazar, a nutritious meal was a near-impossible treat available only during special occasions and solely dependent on charitable contributions.

Most days, Rohingya refugee mothers like Tara could only rely on food rations, which have been slashed in recent years due to insufficient funding.

“It was probably during Eid Al-Fitr when we last had a truly nutritious meal … We survive on the food rations, which are not enough now. Sometimes, I skip meals so that my children can eat,” Tara told Arab News.

“We get rice, lentils, and oil, but no vegetables, no milk. It’s hard to call it a ‘meal,’ let alone nutritious.”

Eid Al-Adha, known as the “Feast of Sacrifice” and one of the two most important holidays for Muslims, is the first time this year that the mother of three gets to serve meat for her family.

Eid Al-Adha commemorates the Prophet Ibrahim’s test of faith when he was commanded by God to sacrifice his son. To reflect his readiness to do so, Muslims around the world slaughter an animal, usually a goat, sheep or cow, and distribute the meat among relatives and the poor.

“On the occasion of Eid, we received a small portion of meat … I prepared a curry with potato and the meat I received. Although it’s not much in quantity, it made the children happy, as it is a chance to have a meal with beef for the first time this year,” Tara said.

“It hurts me as a mother. My heart breaks when my children get excited over a single good meal. It reminds me how little they get on normal days. Eid should be joyful, but I cry inside, knowing my children are being deprived every other day of the year. I feel helpless.”

Mizanur Rahman, refugee relief and repatriation commissioner in Cox’s Bazar, said this year the camps received 1,800 cattle and 350 goats for Eid sacrifice, donated by various Muslim and local nongovernmental organizations.

“In addition to that, different organizations and philanthropists promised to deliver 50,000 kg of fresh meat to be distributed on the day of Eid Al-Adha,” Rahman told Arab News.

The donations will help Bangladeshi authorities to “reach many of the Rohingya families … (and) offer them a feast on the occasion of Eid,” he added. 

Bangladesh hosts about 1.3 million Rohingya Muslims, who, for decades, have fled neighboring Myanmar to escape persecution, especially during a military crackdown in 2017 that the UN has been referring to as a “textbook case” of ethnic cleansing.

The majority of them now live in Cox’s Bazar in eastern Bangladesh, which has become the world’s largest refugee settlement. Over the years, humanitarian conditions in the squalid camps have been deteriorating, with aid continuously declining since the COVID-19 pandemic. The Rohingya also have limited access to job opportunities and education.

With nobody able to earn a living, Mariam Khatun’s family was among those entirely dependent on food aid.

“With little food aid and in a life with no earning opportunity, for my children, a decent meal is something unimaginable,” Khatun told Arab News.

Though Eid was a joyful occasion, she said it was “painful that joy comes only once or twice a year.

“It breaks my heart when the children look at the meat and ask: ‘Will we eat this again tomorrow?’ I have no answer.”

Before fleeing her village in Myanmar, the 29-year-old mother of two used to prepare spicy beef curry, her children’s favorite, frying the meat until it was crispy.

“But here, I barely have them. We rely fully on the food rations, but the amount has been cut so much. It’s not enough for a full month,” she said.

“Maybe only on this Eid, we got a little meat. That’s the only time this year my children got something with some nutrition. We’re not living; we’re just trying not to starve.”