Frankly Speaking: Is it over for Hezbollah?

Firas Maksad - What next in Lebanon?
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Updated 21 October 2024
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Frankly Speaking: Is it over for Hezbollah?

  • Middle East Institute Senior Fellow Firas Maksad says Lebanese militia wagered nation’s fate on Gaza war’s outcome
  • Says ongoing Israel-Hezbollah war’s domestic toll on country still suffering from financial collapse is “tremendous“

DUBAI: Lebanon is heading for an extended conflict as Israel’s ground invasion enters its fourth week, raising concerns of deeper regional instability. Sounding this warning on the Arab News current affairs show “Frankly Speaking,” Firas Maksad, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, said the fighting could last far longer than initially anticipated.

“Unfortunately, we are looking at weeks, maybe months, of conflict ahead,” he said.

The clashes between Israeli forces and the Iran-backed Lebanese Shiite militia Hezbollah have destabilized a country already grappling with economic collapse and political dysfunction.

Despite suffering heavy losses, particularly among its leadership, Hezbollah is far from defeated. “It’s certainly not game over. Hezbollah has been significantly weakened. It’s on its back foot,” Maksad said. “Hezbollah is fighting in a more decentralized way right now. We see that on the border. Their fighters are still … putting up a fight there.”

Israel sent troops and tanks into southern Lebanon on Oct. 1 in an escalation of the Israel-Hezbollah conflict, a spillover from the Israel-Hamas war that has been raging since Oct. 7 last year in Gaza.

It followed a series of major attacks on Hezbollah in September that degraded its capabilities and devastated its leadership, beginning with explosions of its communication devices.

This was followed by an Israeli aerial bombing campaign against Hezbollah throughout Lebanon, culminating in the killing of Hassan Nasrallah, the militia’s firebrand leader, in an airstrike in Dahiyeh, south of Beirut, on Sept. 7.

According to Maksad, Hezbollah’s fragmented central command has left it increasingly reliant on Iranian support. “Hezbollah’s central command is increasingly likely to come under direct Iranian management and control of the IRGC, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards,” he told Katie Jensen, the host of “Frankly Speaking.”

“Nasrallah had a margin of maneuver because of his role and stature in the community but also at a regional level, given the group’s involvement in Syria, Iraq, Yemen. That’s now gone. That very much then opens the way for more direct Iranian control, commanding control of Hezbollah in the months ahead.”

Maksad said the general sentiment in Lebanon, and even among Hezbollah’s own support base, is that the Iranian level of support has been at the very least disappointing.

“Public sentiment is one thing and the reality is sometimes another. Iran has sort of always showed some level of support to Hezbollah but has not been willing to stick its neck on the line, so to speak,” he said.

“It fights through its Arab proxies. It has a very clear aversion to be directly involved in a conflict with Israel because of its technological and military inferiority.”




Maksad, appearing on Frankly Speaking, highlighted a dire humanitarian situation, pointing to the more than one million internally displaced people who have fled from Hezbollah-controlled areas in southern Lebanon. (AN Photo)

Maksad highlighted the dire humanitarian situation in Lebanon, pointing to the more than one million internally displaced people who have fled from Hezbollah-controlled areas in southern Lebanon.

“About one-quarter of the population is under evacuation orders from the Israeli military,” he said. “The domestic toll for a relatively weak country suffering still from the weight of an unprecedented economic collapse in 2019, where most people lost their life savings in the banks, is tremendous.”

Maksad said the displacement has heightened sectarian tensions, as those displaced from pro-Hezbollah areas have moved into regions less sympathetic to the group.

“It does not bode well longer term for Lebanon, and the longer that this conflict drags, the more we have to (be concerned) about the bubbling of tensions and the instability that that might result in,” he said.

“Hezbollah has essentially wagered the country’s fate on (the outcome of the war) in Gaza and the fate of Hamas and its leaders,” he said.

Maksad also discussed the broader geopolitical implications of the conflict, suggesting that Israel is unlikely to engage in a long-term occupation of southern Lebanon.

“The Israelis fully understand the disadvantages of a lengthy occupation,” he said, recalling the heavy toll it took on the Israeli military when they last occupied Lebanon, a presence that ended in 2000.

“What I keep hearing is that Israel is looking to mop up Hezbollah infrastructure, tunnels and otherwise along the border, perhaps maybe even occupy, for a short period of time, the key villages, because the topography of south Lebanon is such that so many of these border villages are overlooking Israel and they want to take the higher ground.”

Having said that, Maksad predicted that Israel would pursue a diplomatic process, possibly through a new security arrangement based on UN Security Council Resolution 1701, after dealing with Hezbollah’s infrastructure.

Hezbollah’s alignment with the cause of Hamas and other Palestinian militant groups has alienated significant segments of the Lebanese population, further straining the country’s already delicate sectarian fabric. The political leadership in Lebanon is consequently under immense pressure.

Maksad views Nabih Berri, the Shiite speaker of Lebanon’s parliament, as a crucial player in mediating the crisis. However, at 86 years old, his ability to navigate such a complex situation is in question.




Maksad told host Katie Jensen that he views Nabih Berri, the Shiite speaker of Lebanon’s parliament, as a crucial player in mediating the crisis. (AN Photo)

“He can’t do it alone,” Maksad said, noting that other key figures, such as Druze leader Walid Jumblatt and Christian political leader Samir Geagea, will need to play constructive roles too. While acknowledging that Najib Mikati, the caretaker prime minister, is also a key player, he noted that since the assassination in 2005 of Rafik Hariri, the former prime minister, “there’s been a void in the Sunni community and it’s been hard to replace that.”

Maksad remarked that Berri, Jumblatt and Geagea were all around during the civil war in the 1980s and are still active players on the Lebanese political scene.

“They have long memories. They remember in 1982 when (Israel’s defense minister) Ariel Sharon initially announced a limited operation into Lebanon and then ended up invading all the way to Beirut, upending the political system, facilitating the election of a pro-Western president,” he said.

But very quickly Iran and Syria launched their comeback, assassinated Bachir Gemayel, the president at the time, and by 1985 had pushed the Israelis all the way back to the south. “Iran and Hezbollah have time  … they tend to be persistent and they have strategic patience,” Maksad said. “Berri and others remember that. So, they’re going to be moving very slowly, and they’re going to be taking their cues from the regional capitals of influence.”

Recent developments in the Middle East, particularly the killing by Israel on Oct. 16 of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in Gaza, represent what Maksad describes as “a potential fork in the road.”

The killing could either escalate tensions across the region or serve as a turning point, allowing Israel to seek a diplomatic solution, according to Maksad.

“It can open up a diplomatic process where maybe Netanyahu can then reclaim the mantle of ‘Mr. Security,’ having killed Sinwar, and then begin to seriously negotiate a swap that would see the Israeli hostages released. And we all know that a ceasefire in Lebanon was premised on a diplomatic outcome in a ceasefire in Gaza. And, then, arguably, Lebanon can begin to move in that direction,” he said.

However, Iran is on “a completely separate track” and the Middle East could be in the midst of a “multi-stage conflict.”

Maksad added: “Once we get the past the Nov. 5 (US election) day, maybe Netanyahu will have a much freer hand for a second round of attacks that can then maybe take a toll on (Iran’s) nuclear infrastructure and the oil facilities in Iran. And then that opens up a Pandora’s box. So, we’re continuing to be in a very uncertain period for not only Gaza and Lebanon, but for Iran and the region at large.”

Discussing the stances of Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states on the Middle East conflicts, Maksad said that these countries are understandably hedging their foreign policy priorities and relations.

“There’s been questions in recent years about the US security commitment to the GCC region, given an increasingly isolationist trend in the US, and talk about ending forever wars,” he said.

“That has rightfully caused countries like Saudi Arabia and others to want to diversify their foreign policy options. I think this is part of a broader strategic approach that the Kingdom has taken. I don’t see any significant changes yet, except that the war in Gaza and now Lebanon, the longer that drags on, the less likely that we’re going to see any progress on normalization with Israel.”

 


Ramadan in war-torn Sudan eclipsed by famine and inflation

Updated 47 min 17 sec ago
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Ramadan in war-torn Sudan eclipsed by famine and inflation

PORT SUDAN: In the safety of Sudan’s eastern coast, residents preparing for Ramadan were struggling to afford basic holiday staples as the war raging elsewhere in the country has sent prices soaring.
The situation was much more dire in areas hit directly by the nearly two-year war, where famine, displacement, severe shortages and looting overshadowed the usual spirit of generosity and community of the holy Muslim month that began on Saturday.
At a market in Port Sudan, a relative safe haven in the east, prices are out of reach for many families.
Sugar, widely used in drinks and sweets to break the daily dawn-to-dusk fast, goes for 2,400 Sudanese pounds ($1) per kilo.
A kilo of veal costs 24,000 pounds, and mutton 28,000, according to consumers.
“We are struggling to afford Ramadan goods,” said resident Mahmoud Abd El Kader, protesting the “extremely expensive” prices.
Another resident, Hassan Osman, told AFP that “prices are too high, goods are too expensive, people cannot afford them.”
According to labor unions, the average monthly pay is around $60, but public workers in some Sudanese states have gone without pay during the war.
Those who did have had to grapple with the plummeting value of the local currency, down from about 600 pounds to the US dollar to 2,400 pounds on the parallel market, and inflation that hit 145 percent in January according to official figures.
In some parts of Sudan, there were pressing concerns not about the prices of food — but about whether it was available at all.
The fighting since April 2023 between the forces of rival generals, which has killed tens of thousands of people and displaced more than 12 million, has also pushed entire areas of Sudan into hunger and cut off crucial supply routes.

NO FOOD, SUPPLIES
In parts of the vast western region of Darfur and Kordofan in the south — both focal points of the war between the army the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) — food supply routes have been cut off, and starvation has set in.
Famine has gripped three displacement camps in North Darfur and some parts of the south, and is expected to spread to five more areas by May, according to a UN-backed assessment.
Some residents of Darfur have resorted to eating peanut shells and tree leaves to survive.
And with aid agencies struggling to reach these areas, hunger is spreading rapidly.
The UN’s World Food Programme said Wednesday it was forced to suspend operations in and around one famine-hit camp in North Darfur because of escalating violence.
“It is very difficult here,” said Omar Manago, a humanitarian worker in North Darfur.
“There is a severe shortage of drinking water and food. Many families have not eaten a proper meal in months,” he added.
UN human rights chief Volker Turk warned on Thursday that without an immediate surge in aid, hundreds of thousands of people could die.
“Sudan is... on the verge of a further explosion into chaos, and at increasing risk of atrocity crimes and mass deaths from famine,” Turk told the UN Human Rights Council.
Manago said that most markets in North Darfur are now gone.
“Everything has been burned down by the” paramilitary fighters, he said.
Other conflict-hit areas, where food stocks are running dangerously low, have also seen widespread looting.
In the capital Khartoum, where fighting between the army and the RSF has intensified in recent weeks, volunteers were distributing any aid they could find, but the needs far outweigh the meagre supply.
Some cherished Ramadan traditions have perished.
“Before the war, volunteers used to line the streets, handing out iftar meals to those who could not make it home in time,” said Sabrine Zerouk, 30, from Omdurman on the outskirts of the capital.
“That is no longer happening like before,” she told AFP.
In previous years, Sudanese families would prepare elaborate iftar meals the break the daily Ramadan fast, sharing food with neighbors and those in need.
“What I miss the most is breaking fast with family and friends,” said Mohamed Moussa, a 30-year-old doctor at one of the last functioning hospitals in Omdurman.
“And the Ramadan decorations, too — these are among the things we’ve lost.”


Uncertainty looms as first phase of Gaza truce due to expire

Updated 39 min 30 sec ago
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Uncertainty looms as first phase of Gaza truce due to expire

  • Hamas says there’s been ‘no progress’ on second ceasefire phase in indirect talks with Israel

GAZA: The latest round of talks on the second phase of the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas has made no progress so far, and it was unclear whether the talks would resume on Saturday, a senior Hamas official said.
The first phase of the ceasefire, which paused 15 months of fighting in the Gaza Strip, saw the release of 33 hostages, including eight bodies, in exchange for nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners.
Phase one expires on Saturday, but under the terms of the deal, fighting is not to resume while negotiations are underway on the second phase, which could end the war in Gaza and see the remaining living hostages returned home.
Officials from Israel, Qatar, Egypt and the United States have been involved in negotiations on the second phase in Cairo, with the goal of bringing an end to the war with the return of all remaining living hostages and the withdrawal of Israeli troops.
Hamas did not attend the talks, but its position has been represented through Egyptian and Qatari mediators. Basem Naim, a member of Hamas’ political bureau, told The Associated Press there had been “no progress” on finding a solution before Israeli negotiators returned home on Friday.
It was unclear whether those mediators were going to return to Cairo to resume talks on Saturday as has been expected, and Naim said he had “no idea” when negotiations might start again.
Hamas started the war with its Oct. 7 2023 attack that left 1,200 dead in Israel. Since then, Israel’s military offensive has killed more than 48,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza health officials, who do not differentiate between civilian and combatant deaths but say that more than half the dead have been women and children.
The two sides agreed to the three-phase ceasefire deal in January, with the aim of bringing an end to the war.
On Friday, Hamas said that it “reaffirms its full commitment to implementing all terms of the agreement in all its stages and details” and called on the international community to pressure Israel to “immediately proceed to the second phase without any delay or evasion.”
In addition to phase two of the ceasefire, the office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said last week that mediators in the talks were “also discussing ways to enhance the delivery of humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip, as part of efforts to alleviate the suffering of the population and support stability in the region.”
Hamas has rejected an Israeli proposal to extend the ceasefire’s first phase by 42 days, saying it goes against the truce agreement, according to a member of the group who requested anonymity to discuss the closed-door negotiations.
The Israeli proposal calls for extending the ceasefire through the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, which started on Saturday, in return for an additional hostage exchange, the Hamas member said.
The U.N. food agency, the World Food Program, said in a post on social media on Saturday that it reached 1 million Palestinians across Gaza during the deal’s first phase.
The pause in fighting helped “restoring distribution points, reopening bakeries, and expanding cash assistance,” the agency said.
“The ceasefire must hold,” it said. “There can be no going back.”


Lebanon’s president to Asharq Al-Awsat: Decision of war and peace lies solely with the state

Updated 01 March 2025
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Lebanon’s president to Asharq Al-Awsat: Decision of war and peace lies solely with the state

  • Aoun said Israel should have committed to ceasefire agreement by withdrawing from Lebanese territories
  • Lebanese leader says during his visit to Saudi Arabia he plans to ask the Kingdom to revive a grant of military aid to Lebanon

BEIRUT: Lebanese President Joseph Aoun says he wants to build a state that has the decision of war and peace and stressed he is committed to implementing Security Council Resolution 1701.

In an interview with Asharq Al-Awsat, his first since his election in January, Aoun said: “Our objective is to build the state, so nothing is difficult. And if we want to talk about the concept of sovereignty, its concept is to place the decisions of war and peace in the hands of the state, and to monopolize or restrict weapons to the state.”

“When will it be achieved? Surely, the circumstances will allow it,” he told the newspaper.

Asked whether the state will be able to impose control over all Lebanese territories with its own forces and without any military or security partnership, he said: "It is no longer allowed for anyone other than the state to fulfill its national duty in protecting the land and the people ... When there is an aggression against the Lebanese state, the state makes the decision, and it determines how to mobilize forces to defend the country."

He also stressed his full commitment to implement UN Security Council Resolution 1701. “The state and all its institutions are committed to implementing the Resolution” on the “entire Lebanese territories,” Aoun said.

On the possible adoption of a defense strategy, Aoun insisted that even if a state does not have enemies on its borders, it should agree on a national security strategy that not only deals with military goals but also economic and fiscal objectives.

“We are tired of war,” he said in response to a question. “We hope to end military conflicts and resolve our problems through diplomatic efforts,” he said.

Asked whether he was surprised that the Israeli army has stayed at five points in south Lebanon, Aoun said that Israel should have committed to the ceasefire agreement that was sponsored by the US and France and should have withdrawn from all areas it had entered during the war with Hezbollah.

“We are in contact with France and the US to pressure Israel to withdraw from the five points because they don’t have any military value,” he said.

“With the emergence of technologies, drones and satellites,” an army does not need a hill for surveillance, Aoun added.

"Saudi Arabia has become a gateway for the region and for the whole world. It has become a platform for global peace,” he said when asked why he has chosen to visit the Kingdom on his first official trip abroad.

“I hope and expect from Saudi Arabia, especially Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, that we correct the relationship for the benefit of both countries and remove all the obstacles ... so that we can build economic and natural relations between us.”

He said that during his visit he plans to ask Saudi Arabia to revive a grant of military aid to Lebanon.

On relations with the Syrian authorities, Aoun said he intends to have friendly ties the new Syrian administration and that one of the pressing issues is to resolve the problem of the porous border between the two countries.

“There are problems on the border (with Syria) with smugglers. Most importantly, the land and sea border with Syria should be demarcated,” he said.

Aoun also called for resolving the problem of Syrian refugees in Lebanon. “The Syrian state cannot give up on 2 million citizens who have been displaced to Lebanon.”

The refugees should return because “the Syrian war ended and the regime that was persecuting them collapsed,” he said.

 

  • This article was originally published by Asharq Al-Awsat and can be read here.

 


PKK declares ceasefire with Turkiye after 40 years of armed struggle

Updated 01 March 2025
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PKK declares ceasefire with Turkiye after 40 years of armed struggle

Istanbul: Outlawed Kurdish militants on Saturday declared a ceasefire with Turkiye following a landmark call by jailed PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan asking the group to disband.
It was the first reaction from the PKK after Ocalan this week called for the dissolution of his Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and asked it to lay down arms after fighting the Turkish state for over four decades.
“In order to pave the way for the implementation of leader Apo’s call for peace and democratic society, we are declaring a ceasefire effective from today,” the PKK executive committee said in a statement quoted by the pro-PKK ANF news agency, referring to Ocalan.
“We agree with the content of the call as it is and we say that we will follow and implement it,” the committee said.
The PKK, designated a terrorist group by Turkiye, the United States and the European Union, has waged an insurgency since 1984 with the aim of carving out a homeland for Kurds, who account for around 20 percent of Turkiye’s 85 million people.
Since Ocalan was jailed in 1999 there have been various attempts to end the bloodshed, which has cost more than 40,000 lives.
After the last round of peace talks collapsed in 2015, no further contact was made until October when a hard-line nationalist ally of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan offered a surprise peace gesture if Ocalan rejected violence.
While Erdogan backed the rapprochement, his government cranked up pressure on the opposition, arresting hundreds of politicians, activists and journalists.
After several meetings with Ocalan at his island prison, the pro-Kurdish DEM party on Thursday relayed his appeal for PKK to lay down its weapons and convene a congress to announce the organization’s dissolution.
 


New demand by Israel risks shaky Gaza truce

Updated 01 March 2025
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New demand by Israel risks shaky Gaza truce

CAIRO: The fragile truce in Gaza was hanging by a thread on Friday after Israel demanded a six-week extension to the first phase of the deal.

The 42-day first stage of the ceasefire — under which Hamas released 33 Israeli hostages, more than 2,000 Palestinian prisoners were freed from Israeli jails and its forces partially withdrew from Gaza — ends on Saturday.

Talks on the second stage — the release of all remaining hostages and Israel’s complete military withdrawal from the Palestinian enclave — should have begun last month, but Egyptian security sources said on Friday that Israeli negotiators in Cairo were insisting on a further 42 days of the first stage.

Hamas said on Saturday that it rejected Israel’s “formulation” of extending the first phase of the ceasefire in Gaza, on the day the first stage of the deal was set to expire.
The group’s spokesperson Hazem Qassem also told Al-Araby TV there were no current talks for a second ceasefire phase in Gaza with the group.

Hamas opposes the extension and insists on proceeding to the second phase of the deal as originally agreed. “We call on the international community to pressure the occupation to... immediately enter the second phase of the agreement without any delay,” it said on Friday.

Palestinian Foreign Minister Varsen Aghabekian also said on Friday that she would like the ceasefire phases to move ahead as originally planned. “I doubt anyone in Gaza will want to go back to war,” she said.

However, there is also no sign of consensus on Gaza’s future. That uncertainty is complicating efforts to negotiate a lasting resolution.
A hostage-prisoner swap early Thursday was the final one under the initial stage of the truce.
Hamas returned the bodies of four Israelis and 643 Palestinians were released from Israeli jails. Many were awaiting treatment on Friday at a hospital in Khan Younis in southern Gaza.
Among those freed was Nael Barghouti, the longest-serving Palestinian prisoner who spent more than four decades behind bars. Another released prisoner, Yahya Shraideh, said: “We were in hell and we came out of hell.”