Frankly Speaking: Is it over for Hezbollah?

Firas Maksad - What next in Lebanon?
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Updated 21 October 2024
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Frankly Speaking: Is it over for Hezbollah?

  • Middle East Institute Senior Fellow Firas Maksad says Lebanese militia wagered nation’s fate on Gaza war’s outcome
  • Says ongoing Israel-Hezbollah war’s domestic toll on country still suffering from financial collapse is “tremendous“

DUBAI: Lebanon is heading for an extended conflict as Israel’s ground invasion enters its fourth week, raising concerns of deeper regional instability. Sounding this warning on the Arab News current affairs show “Frankly Speaking,” Firas Maksad, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, said the fighting could last far longer than initially anticipated.

“Unfortunately, we are looking at weeks, maybe months, of conflict ahead,” he said.

The clashes between Israeli forces and the Iran-backed Lebanese Shiite militia Hezbollah have destabilized a country already grappling with economic collapse and political dysfunction.

Despite suffering heavy losses, particularly among its leadership, Hezbollah is far from defeated. “It’s certainly not game over. Hezbollah has been significantly weakened. It’s on its back foot,” Maksad said. “Hezbollah is fighting in a more decentralized way right now. We see that on the border. Their fighters are still … putting up a fight there.”

Israel sent troops and tanks into southern Lebanon on Oct. 1 in an escalation of the Israel-Hezbollah conflict, a spillover from the Israel-Hamas war that has been raging since Oct. 7 last year in Gaza.

It followed a series of major attacks on Hezbollah in September that degraded its capabilities and devastated its leadership, beginning with explosions of its communication devices.

This was followed by an Israeli aerial bombing campaign against Hezbollah throughout Lebanon, culminating in the killing of Hassan Nasrallah, the militia’s firebrand leader, in an airstrike in Dahiyeh, south of Beirut, on Sept. 7.

According to Maksad, Hezbollah’s fragmented central command has left it increasingly reliant on Iranian support. “Hezbollah’s central command is increasingly likely to come under direct Iranian management and control of the IRGC, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards,” he told Katie Jensen, the host of “Frankly Speaking.”

“Nasrallah had a margin of maneuver because of his role and stature in the community but also at a regional level, given the group’s involvement in Syria, Iraq, Yemen. That’s now gone. That very much then opens the way for more direct Iranian control, commanding control of Hezbollah in the months ahead.”

Maksad said the general sentiment in Lebanon, and even among Hezbollah’s own support base, is that the Iranian level of support has been at the very least disappointing.

“Public sentiment is one thing and the reality is sometimes another. Iran has sort of always showed some level of support to Hezbollah but has not been willing to stick its neck on the line, so to speak,” he said.

“It fights through its Arab proxies. It has a very clear aversion to be directly involved in a conflict with Israel because of its technological and military inferiority.”




Maksad, appearing on Frankly Speaking, highlighted a dire humanitarian situation, pointing to the more than one million internally displaced people who have fled from Hezbollah-controlled areas in southern Lebanon. (AN Photo)

Maksad highlighted the dire humanitarian situation in Lebanon, pointing to the more than one million internally displaced people who have fled from Hezbollah-controlled areas in southern Lebanon.

“About one-quarter of the population is under evacuation orders from the Israeli military,” he said. “The domestic toll for a relatively weak country suffering still from the weight of an unprecedented economic collapse in 2019, where most people lost their life savings in the banks, is tremendous.”

Maksad said the displacement has heightened sectarian tensions, as those displaced from pro-Hezbollah areas have moved into regions less sympathetic to the group.

“It does not bode well longer term for Lebanon, and the longer that this conflict drags, the more we have to (be concerned) about the bubbling of tensions and the instability that that might result in,” he said.

“Hezbollah has essentially wagered the country’s fate on (the outcome of the war) in Gaza and the fate of Hamas and its leaders,” he said.

Maksad also discussed the broader geopolitical implications of the conflict, suggesting that Israel is unlikely to engage in a long-term occupation of southern Lebanon.

“The Israelis fully understand the disadvantages of a lengthy occupation,” he said, recalling the heavy toll it took on the Israeli military when they last occupied Lebanon, a presence that ended in 2000.

“What I keep hearing is that Israel is looking to mop up Hezbollah infrastructure, tunnels and otherwise along the border, perhaps maybe even occupy, for a short period of time, the key villages, because the topography of south Lebanon is such that so many of these border villages are overlooking Israel and they want to take the higher ground.”

Having said that, Maksad predicted that Israel would pursue a diplomatic process, possibly through a new security arrangement based on UN Security Council Resolution 1701, after dealing with Hezbollah’s infrastructure.

Hezbollah’s alignment with the cause of Hamas and other Palestinian militant groups has alienated significant segments of the Lebanese population, further straining the country’s already delicate sectarian fabric. The political leadership in Lebanon is consequently under immense pressure.

Maksad views Nabih Berri, the Shiite speaker of Lebanon’s parliament, as a crucial player in mediating the crisis. However, at 86 years old, his ability to navigate such a complex situation is in question.




Maksad told host Katie Jensen that he views Nabih Berri, the Shiite speaker of Lebanon’s parliament, as a crucial player in mediating the crisis. (AN Photo)

“He can’t do it alone,” Maksad said, noting that other key figures, such as Druze leader Walid Jumblatt and Christian political leader Samir Geagea, will need to play constructive roles too. While acknowledging that Najib Mikati, the caretaker prime minister, is also a key player, he noted that since the assassination in 2005 of Rafik Hariri, the former prime minister, “there’s been a void in the Sunni community and it’s been hard to replace that.”

Maksad remarked that Berri, Jumblatt and Geagea were all around during the civil war in the 1980s and are still active players on the Lebanese political scene.

“They have long memories. They remember in 1982 when (Israel’s defense minister) Ariel Sharon initially announced a limited operation into Lebanon and then ended up invading all the way to Beirut, upending the political system, facilitating the election of a pro-Western president,” he said.

But very quickly Iran and Syria launched their comeback, assassinated Bachir Gemayel, the president at the time, and by 1985 had pushed the Israelis all the way back to the south. “Iran and Hezbollah have time  … they tend to be persistent and they have strategic patience,” Maksad said. “Berri and others remember that. So, they’re going to be moving very slowly, and they’re going to be taking their cues from the regional capitals of influence.”

Recent developments in the Middle East, particularly the killing by Israel on Oct. 16 of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in Gaza, represent what Maksad describes as “a potential fork in the road.”

The killing could either escalate tensions across the region or serve as a turning point, allowing Israel to seek a diplomatic solution, according to Maksad.

“It can open up a diplomatic process where maybe Netanyahu can then reclaim the mantle of ‘Mr. Security,’ having killed Sinwar, and then begin to seriously negotiate a swap that would see the Israeli hostages released. And we all know that a ceasefire in Lebanon was premised on a diplomatic outcome in a ceasefire in Gaza. And, then, arguably, Lebanon can begin to move in that direction,” he said.

However, Iran is on “a completely separate track” and the Middle East could be in the midst of a “multi-stage conflict.”

Maksad added: “Once we get the past the Nov. 5 (US election) day, maybe Netanyahu will have a much freer hand for a second round of attacks that can then maybe take a toll on (Iran’s) nuclear infrastructure and the oil facilities in Iran. And then that opens up a Pandora’s box. So, we’re continuing to be in a very uncertain period for not only Gaza and Lebanon, but for Iran and the region at large.”

Discussing the stances of Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states on the Middle East conflicts, Maksad said that these countries are understandably hedging their foreign policy priorities and relations.

“There’s been questions in recent years about the US security commitment to the GCC region, given an increasingly isolationist trend in the US, and talk about ending forever wars,” he said.

“That has rightfully caused countries like Saudi Arabia and others to want to diversify their foreign policy options. I think this is part of a broader strategic approach that the Kingdom has taken. I don’t see any significant changes yet, except that the war in Gaza and now Lebanon, the longer that drags on, the less likely that we’re going to see any progress on normalization with Israel.”

 


One killed in Syria clashes near Damascus

Updated 9 sec ago
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One killed in Syria clashes near Damascus

Saturday’s incident occurred in Jaramana, a densely populated suburb near Damascus that is home to a majority of Druze and Christian minority residents
Jaramana’s Druze said in a statement that they would “withdraw protection from all offenders and outlaws“

BEIRUT: Clashes between forces affiliated with the Syrian Arab Republic’s new rulers and local gunmen from the minority Druze community killed one person and wounded nine near Damascus on Saturday, a monitor said.
Since Islamist-led rebels in December overthrew longtime repressive ruler Bashar Assad, clashes and shootings have occurred in several areas, with security officials accusing armed supporters of the previous government.
Saturday’s incident occurred in Jaramana, a densely populated suburb near Damascus that is home to a majority of Druze and Christian minority residents.
The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported that “one person was killed and nine others from Jaramana were injured during clashes between security forces affiliated with the new authority and local gunmen tasked with protecting the area.”
It could not specify whether the killed person was a civilian or a local fighter.
Tensions began on Friday when a dispute led to the killing of one security forces member and the wounding of another in a shooting at a checkpoint in Jaramana, according to the Observatory.
Syria’s official news agency, SANA, quoted Col. Hossam Al-Tahhan, the local head of security, as saying the checkpoint had stopped Ministry of Defense personnel as they entered the area to visit their relatives.
After surrendering their weapons they were assaulted and “their vehicle was directly targeted by gunfire,” resulting in the casualties, Tahhan said.
He warned such incidents could have repercussions on “Syria’s security, stability, and unity.”
Jaramana’s Druze said in a statement that they would “withdraw protection from all offenders and outlaws” and pledged to hand over anyone proven responsible to “the relevant authorities to face justice.”
Restoring and maintaining security across Syria remains one of the most pressing challenges for interim President Ahmad Al-Sharaa, following about 13 years of civil war.
The Druze, who also live in Lebanon, Israel and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, make up about three percent of Syria’s population.
They largely stayed on the sidelines of the civil war.
Sharaa’s Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham Islamist group led the offensive against Assad. The group has its roots in Syria’s former Al-Qaeda affiliate, and is proscribed as a terrorist organization by many governments including the United States.
HTS has moderated its rhetoric and vowed to protect Syria’s religious and ethnic minorities.
Israeli defense minister Israel Katz on Saturday warned Syria’s new rulers not “to harm the Druze,” adding the military has been ordered “to prepare and to send a firm and clear warning: if the regime harms the Druze, it will suffer the consequences.”
His comment came after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu last Sunday demanded “the complete demilitarization of southern Syria” including Sweida province where Druze Arabs predominate.
The same day Assad was ousted, Israel announced its troops were entering a UN-patrolled buffer zone on the Golan Heights.

Swiss to host conference on occupied Palestinian territories

Updated 12 min 9 sec ago
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Swiss to host conference on occupied Palestinian territories

  • The first phase of the Israel-Hamas truce was drawing to a close on Saturday, but negotiations on the next stage, which should secure a permanent ceasefire, have so far been inconclusive

GENEVA: Switzerland said it will host an international conference on March 7 on the protection of Palestinian civilians in the occupied territories, as called for in a UN vote.
The 196 signatories to the Geneva Convention will be invited to the meeting, which will be attended by ambassadors, a spokesperson for the Swiss foreign ministry said.
On Sept. 18, the UN General Assembly mandated Switzerland to organize the conference, given that the Alpine country is the depository of the international treaties setting out the rules of war and humanitarian law.
Such “conferences of high contracting parties” cannot take binding decisions but can “reaffirm the rules of international humanitarian law and the obligations,” the Swiss government says on its website.

BACKGROUND

Israeli settlers have stepped up their attacks on Palestinian civilians in the occupied West Bank, while the army has launched a major security operation that has displaced some 40,000 Palestinians.

Since the UN vote and after 15 months of intensive war, a tenuous ceasefire was agreed upon in the Gaza Strip in January that allowed for the release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners and for humanitarian aid to reach the besieged enclave, where 90 percent of housing has been destroyed by Israeli bombardment.
Meanwhile, in the occupied West Bank, Israeli settlers have stepped up their attacks on Palestinian civilians,
while the Israeli army has launched a major security operation that has displaced some 40,000 Palestinians.
The Gaza war began after the Oct. 7 attack on Israel, which resulted in the deaths of 1,218 people, mostly civilians, according to a tally of official Israeli figures.
The Israeli retaliation has killed more than 48,000 people in Gaza, a majority of them civilians, according to the Health Ministry in the Hamas-run territory, figures the UN has deemed reliable.
The first phase of the Israel-Hamas truce was drawing to a close on Saturday, but negotiations on the next stage, which should secure a permanent ceasefire, have so far been inconclusive.
The ceasefire took effect on Jan. 19 after more than 15 months of war.

 


Lebanon orders urgent hospital checks in border areas hit by Israeli offensive

Updated 18 min 47 sec ago
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Lebanon orders urgent hospital checks in border areas hit by Israeli offensive

  • Lebanese ‘repeatedly face arduous task of reconstruction,’ grand mufti says in Ramadan message
  • President Joseph Aoun to visit Saudi Arabia, Egypt on first foreign visit since election

BEIRUT: Lebanon’s Health Minister, Rakan Nasser Al-Din, announced on Saturday a comprehensive assessment of hospital needs in border areas that suffered significant damage during the recent Israeli offensive.

Al-Din traveled to the south on his first mission following the confidence vote in parliament for the government of Prime Minister Nawaf Salam.

He inspected several hospitals in the border area that were badly damaged during the recent Israeli offensive.

During a visit to Mays Al-Jabal Governmental Hospital, Al-Din said he wanted to see the extensive destruction caused by the brutal aggression that Lebanon has faced.

FASTFACT

Grand Mufti Sheikh Abdul Latif Derian hoped that ‘next Ramadan, we will witness the establishment of the state of Palestine, thanks to the perseverance and struggle of its people and the consensus of Arabs and Muslims on renewing the experience of a free and sovereign national state.’

The minister highlighted the need to provide support and assistance, saying that the will to endure cannot be strengthened without aiding hospitals, particularly those in border areas.

Al-Din also visited hospitals in Bint Jbeil, Salah Ghandour, and Tebnine.

He told workers and activists in the towns that the government is committed to rebuilding and restoring all infrastructure, particularly health facilities.

“This will involve exploring avenues for reconstruction, enhancing medication availability, improving health care mechanisms, and strengthening human resources to ensure the effective operation of hospitals,” he said.

Lebanon’s “great ordeal is its repeated need, every decade or two, for reconstruction,” Grand Mufti Sheikh Abdul Latif Derian said in his Ramadan message.

“We have tens of thousands of citizens who have lost their loved ones, their homes, or their villages.

“And there is no reconstruction without reform — not only because of resource-related challenges but because reform ensures that rebuilding and development are sustainable.

“Over two decades, we have seen how corruption destroyed the reconstruction and development efforts.”

Derian also referred to “the calamities and hardships facing Lebanon, Palestine, Syria, Iraq, and the wider Arab world.”

He said that “one of the first signs of change is the downfall of those responsible for the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, along with the deaths of hundreds of Lebanese and tens of thousands of Syrians.

“This dark cloud over Lebanon and Syria has been lifted all at once,” he said.

Derian added: “We know the difficulties are great and numerous.”

He hoped that “next Ramadan, we will witness the establishment of the state of Palestine, thanks to the perseverance and struggle of its people and the consensus of Arabs and Muslims on renewing the experience of a free and sovereign national state.”

Derian reflected on Saudi Founding Day, which was celebrated in an atmosphere of security and prosperity.

He said even the Americans and Russians found no better place to meet than Saudi Arabia, which plays a significant global role for itself, as well as for Arabs and Muslims.

The grand mufti’s message came as Lebanese President Joseph Aoun prepares to undertake his first foreign visit on Monday after being elected president.

Saudi Arabia will be his first destination, with Foreign Affairs Minister Youssef Rajji accompanying him.

According to the Presidential Palace, Aoun will meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman before heading to Cairo to take part in the emergency Arab Summit on the rebuilding of Gaza.

A source at the presidential palace told Arab News that “this is not an official visit to Saudi Arabia but a response to the crown prince’s invitation to visit the Kingdom.”

No agreements will be signed during the visit, said the source.

According to the source, other ministers will accompany Aoun on a later visit to sign agreements and protocols to strengthen cooperation between Saudi Arabia and Lebanon.

Aoun congratulated Lebanon’s Muslims on the arrival of Ramadan, which coincides with the beginning of Lent for Christians on Monday.

“This allows Lebanese of all religions to share the spiritual values embodied by fasting,” he said.

The grand mufti also said that the president’s election and inauguration provided Lebanon with opportunities for relief and recovery, including the possibility of peace in the south, the restoration of state authority over its territory, and the enhancement of relations with neighboring Arab nations and the international community.

“Now that the government has gained the confidence of parliament, it is entering a phase of follow-up and testing.

“This is intended to demonstrate to the Lebanese people, as well as to Arab and international public opinion, that the Lebanese state alone has the authority to make decisions on its territory.

“It alone shapes its relations with its Arab brothers and the rest of its friends,” said Derian.

 


Israel says ‘will not be deterred’ after Hamas issues hostage video

Updated 01 March 2025
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Israel says ‘will not be deterred’ after Hamas issues hostage video

  • The three-minute video shows the emotional farewell between Israeli-Argentinian Yair Horn and his brother Eitan
  • In the video, Eitan Horn relays a message from Hamas urging the Israeli government to “sign the second phase of the (ceasefire) deal and return us home“

JERUSALEM: The office of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu dismissed as “Hamas propaganda” Saturday footage released by the Palestinian militant group showing what appeared to be Israeli hostages in Gaza.
“The Hamas terrorist organization has, this evening, disseminated another cruel propaganda video in which our hostages are forced to engage in psychological warfare,” Netanyahu’s office said.
The release of the footage by Hamas’s armed wing, the Ezzedine Al-Qassam Brigades, came as the first stage of the Gaza ceasefire which took effect on January 19 was due to expire on Saturday with no clarity about what happens next.
The three-minute video shows the emotional farewell between Israeli-Argentinian Yair Horn and his brother Eitan, suggesting that it was filmed shortly before Yair’s release on February 15.
In the video, Eitan Horn relays a message from Hamas urging the Israeli government to “sign the second phase of the (ceasefire) deal and return us home.”
“Get everyone out and do not separate families,” he says.
The footage is accompanied by a message from Hamas reading: “Only a ceasefire agreement brings them back alive.”
It is followed by ticking sounds and an image of an egg timer with the message: “Time is running out.”
In a statement after the video’s release, Netanyahu’s office said: “Israel will not be deterred by Hamas propaganda.
“We will continue to act relentlessly for the return of all of our hostages and until all objectives of the war are met.”
The Hostages and Missing Families Forum, an Israeli group that campaigns for the release of all captives from Gaza, said the Horn family had given its permission for the footage of the two brothers to be published.
“It breaks our heart to see Eitan in this difficult situation, saying goodbye to his brother, (Y)air, who is being freed while Eitan remains held in Hamas hell for 512 days now,” the Horn family said in a statement.
“We demand from the decision-makers: Look Eitan in the eyes. Don’t stop the agreement that has already brought dozens of hostages back to us. They are running out of time! Bring everyone home, now, in one phase.”
Hamas has offered to release all remaining hostages in one go in a second phase of the ceasefire. Israel has called for releases to continue in batches in an extension of the first stage of the ceasefire that has been rejected by the militant group.


UN chief warns return to war in Gaza would be ‘catastrophic’

Updated 01 March 2025
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UN chief warns return to war in Gaza would be ‘catastrophic’

  • Guterres said a “permanent ceasefire and the release of all hostages are essential to preventing escalation”

UNITED NATIONS: United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on Saturday warned against a return to hostilities in war-torn Gaza, saying such an outcome would be “catastrophic.”
As the first phase of the Israel-Hamas truce agreement drew to a close with uncertainty over the next steps, Guterres said in a statement that a “permanent ceasefire and the release of all hostages are essential to preventing escalation and averting more devastating consequences for civilians.”