IEA predicts oil supply surplus amid weak China demand in 2025

Historically, China has driven over 60 percent of global oil demand growth over the past decade. (Reuters/File)
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Updated 22 October 2024
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IEA predicts oil supply surplus amid weak China demand in 2025

  • Global oil prices are currently around $70 per barrel, having dropped over 7 percent last week, even amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East

RIYADH: The International Energy Agency forecasts weak oil demand growth in China for 2025, despite recent stimulus measures from Beijing. 

As the world’s second-largest economy shifts toward electrifying its car fleet and experiences slower growth, this trend is expected to continue, according to IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol.

Historically, China has driven over 60 percent of global oil demand growth over the past decade, with an average economic growth rate of 6.1 percent. However, Birol noted that with the economy projected to grow around 4 percent, energy needs are likely to decline. He highlighted that the demand for electric vehicles, now competitive with traditional cars, will contribute to this decrease.

Birol remarked that the impact of China’s fiscal stimulus has been less significant than anticipated, stating, “It will be very difficult to see a major uptick in Chinese oil demand.” 

Global oil prices are currently around $70 per barrel, having dropped over 7 percent last week, even amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. 

Birol pointed out that one reason for the muted price reaction is the weak demand observed this year, with expectations of continued weakness next year. 

He noted that without the petrochemical sector, Chinese oil demand would have remained flat.

Additionally, increased supply from non-OPEC producers — such as the US, Canada, Brazil, and Guyana — outpaces global oil demand growth, further limiting price increases. 

When asked about the possibility of OPEC+ unwinding production cuts in 2025, Birol stated that the decision lies with OPEC, but he anticipates a surplus in the oil market next year unless significant geopolitical changes occur.

Brent crude futures rose by $1.16, or 1.6 percent, to reach $74.22 a barrel at 10:36 GMT. Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures increased by $1.32, or 1.9 percent, settling at $70.54 a barrel.

Both Brent and WTI experienced significant declines last week, with Brent falling over 7 percent and WTI losing around 8 percent.


Oil Updates — prices set for weekly gain on China stimulus optimism 

Updated 27 December 2024
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Oil Updates — prices set for weekly gain on China stimulus optimism 

RIYADH: Oil prices were little changed on Friday but were set for a weekly rise amid optimism that economic stimulus efforts will prompt a recovery in China, but a stronger dollar capped gains, according to Reuters. 

Brent crude futures fell 2 cents to $73.24 a barrel by 08:35 a.m. Saudi time. US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $69.61, down 1 cent, from Thursday’s close. However, on a weekly basis, Brent was up 0.4 percent and WTI rose 0.2 percent. 

The World Bank on Thursday raised its forecast for China’s economic growth in 2024 and 2025, but warned that subdued household and business confidence, along with headwinds in the property sector, would keep weighing it down next year. 

China, the world’s biggest oil importer, revised upwards its 2023 gross domestic product estimate by 2.7 percent, but also said the change would have little impact on growth this year. 

Chinese authorities have agreed to issue 3 trillion yuan ($411 billion) worth of special treasury bonds next year, Reuters reported this week citing sources, as Beijing ramps up fiscal stimulus to revive a faltering economy. 

However, a stronger US dollar weighed on oil prices and capped gains. The greenback has risen about 7 percent this quarter and remained pinned at a near two-year peak against major peers after the Federal Reserve signaled slower rate cuts in 2025. 

A stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for holders of other currencies. 

The latest weekly report on US inventories from the American Petroleum Institute industry group showed crude stocks fell last week by 3.2 million barrels, market sources said on Tuesday. API/S 

Traders will be waiting to see if the official inventory report from the US Energy Information Administration confirms the decline. The EIA data is due at 9 p.m. Saudi time on Friday, later than normal because of the Christmas holiday. 

Analysts in a Reuters poll expect crude inventories fell by about 1.9 million barrels in the week to Dec. 20, while gasoline and distillate inventories are seen falling by 1.1 million barrels and 0.3 million barrels respectively. 


Oil Updates — prices edge higher on hopes for more China stimulus 

Updated 26 December 2024
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Oil Updates — prices edge higher on hopes for more China stimulus 

TOKYO: Oil prices edged higher on Thursday in thin holiday trading, driven by hopes for additional fiscal stimulus in China, the world’s biggest oil importer, while an anticipated decline in US crude inventories also provided support, according to Reuters. 

Brent crude futures rose 22 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $73.80 a barrel by 07:50 a.m. Saudi time. US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $70.34 a barrel, up 24 cents, or 0.3 percent, from Tuesday’s pre-Christmas settlement. 

China plans to boost fiscal support for consumption next year by increasing pensions and medical insurance subsidies for residents and expanding trade-ins for consumer goods, according to a finance ministry announcement on Tuesday. 

Meanwhile, Chinese authorities have agreed to issue 3 trillion yuan ($411 billion) worth of special treasury bonds next year, Reuters reported on Tuesday, citing two sources, as Beijing ramps up fiscal stimulus to revive a faltering economy. 

“Crude oil prices have risen this week, driven by news that Chinese authorities are implementing a record-breaking 3 trillion yuan fiscal stimulus to boost their struggling economy,” said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova. 

“Additionally, a decrease in US crude oil inventories, which indicates healthy demand, has also supported prices.” 

Satoru Yoshida, a commodity analyst at Rakuten Securities, said expectations of increasing fossil fuel production and demand after US President-elect Donald Trump takes office next month are also bolstering oil prices. 

An extended Reuters poll showed on Tuesday that crude inventories are expected to have fallen by about 1.9 million barrels in the week to Dec. 20. Gasoline and distillate inventories are seen falling by 1.1 million barrels and 0.3 million barrels, respectively.  

US crude oil and distillate stocks fell last week, market sources said, citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday.  

The latest data from the Energy Information Administration, the statistical arm of the US Department of Energy, is due at 9:00 p.m. Saudi time on Friday. 

On the supply side, Libya's National Oil Corp (NOC) said on Wednesday that the country's average crude production in 2024 exceeded its target of around 1.4 million barrels per day. 


Egypt and Jordan discuss collaborations in natural gas

Updated 25 December 2024
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Egypt and Jordan discuss collaborations in natural gas

  • Two parties explored ways to exploit shared expertise and resources
  • It aligns with both countries’ national security and sustainable development strategies

RIYADH: Cooperation in energy and natural gas between Egypt and Jordan is set to grow as the North African country’s Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources Karim Badawi met with the Jordanian Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources, Saleh Kharabsheh.

The talks at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources in Amman revolved primarily around diversifying energy sources and propelling natural gas projects, the Jordanian news agency Petra reported.

This aligns with both countries’ national security and sustainable development strategies.

During the meeting, the two parties explored ways to exploit shared expertise and resources to implement future projects that are projected to yield positive economic returns and further strengthen regional cooperation.

The meeting came during Badawi’s visit to Jordan, during which he assessed the plans and operations of the Jordanian-Egyptian Fajr Co. in developing the natural gas infrastructure in Jordan.

The visit underlined the strategic importance of the 500-kilometer main gas network stretching from southern to northern Jordan. 

Badawi also evaluated the progress in enhancing the network’s capacity and related facilities during his stay.

The Egyptian minister reviewed the current and upcoming projects by Egyptian petroleum sector companies planned for implementation in Jordan. 

He highlighted the importance of accelerating these initiatives to maximize the economic and environmental benefits of natural gas use across various sectors in Jordan. 

Badawi’s visit to Jordan underscores the strong ties and fruitful collaboration between the two nations.


EBRD supports Africa’s largest onshore wind project in Egypt with $275m loan

Updated 24 December 2024
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EBRD supports Africa’s largest onshore wind project in Egypt with $275m loan

  • 1.1 GW wind farm in Egypt will reduce annual CO2 emissions by more than 2.2 million tonnes
  • Loan to Suez Wind consists of $200 million A loan from the EBRD and $75 million in B loans from Arab Bank and Standard Chartered

JEDDAH: The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development is supporting Egypt in launching Africa’s largest wind farm, backed by a $275 million syndicated loan.

The loan to Suez Wind consists of a $ 200 million A loan from the EBRD and $ 75 million in B loans from Arab Bank and Standard Chartered, the international financial institution said in a press release.

It added that the initiative is being co-financed by the African Development Bank, British International Investment, and Deutsche Investitions- und Entwicklungsgesellschaft, as well as the OPEC Fund for International Development and the Arab Petroleum Investments Corporation.

The wind farm in the Gulf of Suez will have an installed capacity of 1.1 gigawatts, delivering clean, renewable energy at a lower cost than conventional power generation. It is expected to produce over 4,300 GWh of electricity annually and reduce CO2 emissions by more than 2.2 million tons per year, supporting Egypt’s energy sector alignment with its commitments under the Paris Agreement.

Rania Al-Mashat, Egypt’s minister of planning, economic development, and international cooperation, said that her country is committed to advancing its renewable energy ambitions, aiming to derive 42 percent of its energy mix from renewable sources by 2030, in line with their nationally determined contributions.

“Through our partnership with the EBRD, a key development partner within the energy sector of Egypt’s country platform for the NWFE program, we are mobilizing blended finance to attract private-sector investments in renewable energy,” said Al-Mashat, who also serves as governor of the north African country to the EBRD

The minister added: “So far, funding has been secured for projects with a capacity of 4.7 gigawatts, and we are working collaboratively to meet the program’s targets to reduce Egypt’s fuel consumption and expand clean energy projects.”

Managing Director of the EBRD’s Sustainable Infrastructure Group, Nandita Parshad, expressed pride in the bank’s role as the largest financier of the landmark 1,100-megawatt wind farm in the Gulf of Suez, which is also the largest onshore wind farm in EBRD’s operational countries to date.

“Egypt continues to be a trailblazer for large-scale renewables in Africa: first with the largest solar farm and now the largest windfarm on the continent. Great to partner on both with ACWA power and to bring new partners in this project, Hassan Allam Utilities and Meridiam,” she said.

Suez Wind is a special project company jointly owned by Saudi energy giant ACWA Power and HAU Energy, a recently established renewable energy equity platform that the EBRD is investing in alongside Hassan Allam Utilities and Meridiam Africa Investments.

The EBRD, of which Egypt is a founding member, is the principal development partner in the republic’s energy sector under the Nexus of Water, Food, and Energy program, launched at COP27. This wind farm is one of the first projects within NWFE’s energy pillar, advancing progress toward the country’s 10-gigawatt renewable energy goal.

It plays a vital role in supporting Egypt’s efforts to decarbonize its fossil fuel-dependent power sector and achieve its ambitious renewable energy targets.

Since the EBRD began operations in Egypt in 2012, the bank has invested nearly €13.3 billion in 194 projects across the country. These investments span various sectors, including finance, transport, and agribusiness, as well as manufacturing, services, and infrastructure, with a particular emphasis on power, municipal water, and wastewater projects, according to the same source.

Last month, EBRD announced it was supporting the development and sustainability of Egypt’s renewable-energy sector by extending a $21.3 million loan to Red Sea Wind Energy.

The loan was established to fund the development and construction of a 150-megawatt expansion to the 500-megawatt wind farm currently being constructed in the same region.


Oil Updates — prices rise in thin pre-Christmas trade

Updated 24 December 2024
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Oil Updates — prices rise in thin pre-Christmas trade

  • Solid economic prospects for the US are also supporting prices

LONDON: Oil prices rose on Tuesday, reversing the prior session’s losses, buoyed by slightly positive market outlooks for the short term and stronger US economic data, despite thin trade ahead of the Christmas holiday.
Brent crude futures were up 33 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $72.96 a barrel, and US West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 29 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $69.53 a barrel at 07:22 a.m. Saudi time.
FGE analysts said they anticipated the benchmark prices would fluctuate around current levels in the short term “as activity in the paper markets decreases during the holiday season and market participants stay on the sidelines until they get a clearer view of 2024 and 2025 global oil balances.”
Supply and demand changes in December have been supportive of their current less-bearish view so far, the analysts said in a note.
“Given how short the paper market is on positioning, any supply disruption could lead to upward spikes in structure,” they added.
Some other analysts also pointed to signs of a positive outlook for oil over the next few months.
“The year is ending with the consensus from major agencies over long 2025 liquids balances starting to break down,” said Neil Crosby, Sparta Commodities’ assistant vice president of oil analytics, in a note. “The EIA’s STEO (short-term energy outlook) recently shifted their 2025 liquids to a draw despite continuing to bring back some OPEC+ barrels next year.”
Solid economic prospects for the US, the world’s largest oil consumer, are also supporting prices.
New orders for key US-manufactured capital goods surged in November amid strong demand for machinery, while new home sales also rebounded, in a sign that the US economy is on a solid footing toward the year-end.
In the shorter term, traders are looking for indications of US demand from the crude oil and fuel stockpiles data due from the American Petroleum Institute industry group later on Tuesday.
Analysts polled by Reuters estimated on average that crude inventories fell by about 2 million barrels in the week to Dec. 20 in a sign of healthy demand. The Energy Information Administration is due to release its data on Friday.