IEA predicts oil supply surplus amid weak China demand in 2025

Historically, China has driven over 60 percent of global oil demand growth over the past decade. (Reuters/File)
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Updated 22 October 2024
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IEA predicts oil supply surplus amid weak China demand in 2025

  • Global oil prices are currently around $70 per barrel, having dropped over 7 percent last week, even amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East

RIYADH: The International Energy Agency forecasts weak oil demand growth in China for 2025, despite recent stimulus measures from Beijing. 

As the world’s second-largest economy shifts toward electrifying its car fleet and experiences slower growth, this trend is expected to continue, according to IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol.

Historically, China has driven over 60 percent of global oil demand growth over the past decade, with an average economic growth rate of 6.1 percent. However, Birol noted that with the economy projected to grow around 4 percent, energy needs are likely to decline. He highlighted that the demand for electric vehicles, now competitive with traditional cars, will contribute to this decrease.

Birol remarked that the impact of China’s fiscal stimulus has been less significant than anticipated, stating, “It will be very difficult to see a major uptick in Chinese oil demand.” 

Global oil prices are currently around $70 per barrel, having dropped over 7 percent last week, even amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. 

Birol pointed out that one reason for the muted price reaction is the weak demand observed this year, with expectations of continued weakness next year. 

He noted that without the petrochemical sector, Chinese oil demand would have remained flat.

Additionally, increased supply from non-OPEC producers — such as the US, Canada, Brazil, and Guyana — outpaces global oil demand growth, further limiting price increases. 

When asked about the possibility of OPEC+ unwinding production cuts in 2025, Birol stated that the decision lies with OPEC, but he anticipates a surplus in the oil market next year unless significant geopolitical changes occur.

Brent crude futures rose by $1.16, or 1.6 percent, to reach $74.22 a barrel at 10:36 GMT. Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures increased by $1.32, or 1.9 percent, settling at $70.54 a barrel.

Both Brent and WTI experienced significant declines last week, with Brent falling over 7 percent and WTI losing around 8 percent.


Saudi Arabia joins global hydrogen fuel partnership

Updated 22 November 2024
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Saudi Arabia joins global hydrogen fuel partnership

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia has joined a key international alliance designed to enhance cooperation around the development and deployment of hydrogen and fuel cell technologies.

The International Partnership for the Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Economy works to deliver a balanced and effective global transition to cleaner and more efficient energy systems.

The Kingdom’s Ministry of Energy announced Saudi Arabia had signed up to the organization, with a press release saying the move represents a new step that confirms the “pioneering role” that the Kingdom is playing in international efforts aimed at enhancing sustainability and “innovating advanced solutions” in the fields of clean power.

Saudi Arabia has pledged to achieve zero neutrality in terms of carbon emissions by 2060, as well as becoming one of the world’s most important producers and exporters of clean hydrogen.

The press release added: “The Kingdom’s accession to this partnership confirms its firm vision regarding the role of international cooperation and its importance in achieving a more sustainable energy future.”

The IPHE was originally launched in 2003 by the US, and has two active working groups covering Education & Outreach, and Regulations, Codes, Standards, & Safety.


Oil Updates – crude heads for weekly gains as Ukraine war intensifies

Updated 22 November 2024
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Oil Updates – crude heads for weekly gains as Ukraine war intensifies

LONDON: Oil prices inched lower on Friday, but were on track for a weekly rise of nearly 4 percent, as an intensifying war in Ukraine returned a geopolitical risk premium to oil markets.

Brent crude futures fell 65 cents, or 0.88 percent, to $73.58 a barrel by 4:12 p.m. Saudi time. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell by 66 cents, or 0.94 percent, to $69.44 per barrel.

Pressuring prices on Friday, eurozone business activity took a surprisingly sharp turn for the worse this month as the bloc’s dominant services industry contracted and manufacturing sank deeper into recession.

Kazakhstan’s largest oilfield, Tengiz, is scheduled to return to full production in early December, Russian news agency Interfax reported on Friday, while elsewhere Kazakhstan’s energy ministry said it plans to produce 90 million tonnes of oil in 2025, up from 88 million tonnes in 2024.

Both contracts are set for gains of nearly 4 percent this week, as Moscow steps up its Ukraine offensive after Britain and the United States allowed Kyiv to strike deeper into Russia with their missiles.

“The Russia-Ukraine escalation has raised geopolitical tensions beyond levels seen during the year-long conflict between Israel and Iran-backed militants,” Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen said on Friday.

He added that rising refinery margins and an incoming cold snap had also supported distillate refinery profit margins, and wider oil prices, this week.

The Kremlin said on Friday that a strike on Ukraine using a newly developed hypersonic ballistic missile was a message to the West that Moscow will respond harshly to any “reckless” Western actions in support of Ukraine.

Ukraine has used drones to target Russian oil infrastructure, for instance in June, when it used long-range attack drones to strike four Russian refineries.

“What the market fears is accidental destruction in any part of oil, gas and refining that not only causes long-term damage but accelerates a war spiral,” said PVM analyst John Evans.

Also supporting prices this week, China announced policy measures on Thursday to boost trade, including support for energy product imports, amid worries over US President-elect Donald Trump’s threats to impose tariffs.

China’s crude oil imports are set to rebound in November, according to analysts, traders and ship tracking data.


Oil Updates – prices edge up on geopolitical tensions; higher-than-expected US inventories cap gains

Updated 21 November 2024
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Oil Updates – prices edge up on geopolitical tensions; higher-than-expected US inventories cap gains

SINGAPORE: Oil prices rose marginally on Thursday as geopolitical concerns over escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine countered the impact from a bigger-than-expected increase in US crude inventories.

Brent crude futures rose 16 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $72.97 as of 7:08 Saudi time. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 16 cents, or 0.23 percent, to $68.91.

Ukraine fired a volley of British Storm Shadow cruise missiles into Russia on Wednesday, the latest new Western weapon it has been permitted to use on Russian targets a day after it fired US ATACMS missiles.

Moscow has said the use of Western weapons to strike Russian territory far from the border would be a major escalation in the conflict. Kyiv says it needs the capability to defend itself by hitting Russian rear bases used to support Moscow’s invasion, which entered its 1,000th day this week.

“For oil, the risk is if Ukraine targets Russian energy infrastructure, while the other risk is uncertainty over how Russia responds to these attacks,” said ING analysts in a note.

JPMorgan analysts said oil consumption recovered in the past week thanks to better travel demand in the US and India, and as the latter also showed a significant rise in industrial demand.

Global oil demand is estimated to reach 103.6 million barrels per day (bpd) during the first 19 days of November, up 1.7 million bpd on-year, the analysts said in a note.

But countering the gains was a rise in US crude inventories by 545,000 barrels to 430.3 million barrels in the week ended Nov. 15, exceeding analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 138,000-barrel rise.

Gasoline inventories last week rose more than forecast, while distillate stockpiles posted a larger-than-expected draw, according to the Energy Information Administration data.

Adding to supply, Norway’s Equinor said it had restored full output capacity at the Johan Sverdrup oilfield in the North Sea following a power outage.

Meanwhile, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies led by Russia, the group known as OPEC+, may push back output increases again when it meets on Dec. 1 due to weak global oil demand, according to three OPEC+ sources familiar with the discussions.

OPEC+, which pumps around half the world’s oil, had initially planned to gradually reverse production cuts with minor increases spread over several months in 2024 and 2025.

However, the International Energy Agency said in its report last week even if OPEC+ cuts remain in place, oil supply will exceed demand in 2025 as rising production from the US and other outside producers outpaces sluggish demand. 


OPEC chief tells COP29 oil is a gift from God

Updated 22 November 2024
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OPEC chief tells COP29 oil is a gift from God

BAKU: OPEC Secretary-General Haitham Al-Ghais on Wednesday told the COP29 climate summit in Baku that crude oil and natural gas were a gift from God, and that global warming talks should focus on cutting emissions not picking energy sources.

His words echoed those of Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev, who used his opening address to the summit to hit back at Western critics of his country’s oil and gas industry, and also described those resources as a gift from God.

“They are indeed a gift of God,” Al-Ghais said in a speech at the conference.

“They impact how we produce and package and transport food and how we undertake medical research, manufacture, distribute, medical supplies. I could go on forever.”

He said that world governments, which agreed to limit planetary warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels at the 2015 summit in Paris, could achieve their climate targets without shunning petroleum.

“The focus of the Paris Agreement is reducing emissions, not choosing energy sources,” he said.

OPEC has said that technologies like carbon capture can tackle the climate impact of burning fossil fuels.

Mohamed Hamel, secretary-general of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum, a grouping of gas exporter nations, also spoke to the conference on Wednesday in support of fossil fuels.

“As the world’s population grows, the economy expands, and human living conditions improve, the world will need more natural gas, not less,” he said.

He added that he hoped that a COP29 deal on international climate finance would allow support for natural gas projects to help countries transition away from dirtier fuels like coal.

“The outcome of COP 29 should facilitate financing for natural gas projects and scaling up cleaner technologies such as carbon capture, utilization and storage,” he said.

“This is crucial for ensuring just inclusive and orderly energy transitions that leave no one behind.”

Climate scientists say the world is now likely to cross the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold — beyond which catastrophic climate impacts could occur — in the early 2030s, if not before.

The world is currently on track for as much as 3.1 Celsius of warming by the end of this century, according to the 2024 UN Emissions Gap report.


Oil Updates – prices little changed as market weighs mixed drivers

Updated 20 November 2024
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Oil Updates – prices little changed as market weighs mixed drivers

SINGAPORE: Oil prices held steady for a second day on Wednesday as concerns about escalating hostilities in the Ukraine war potentially disrupting oil supply from Russia and signs of growing Chinese crude imports offset data showing US crude stocks rising.

Brent crude futures dipped 5 cents to $73.26 a barrel by 8:41 a.m. Saudi time. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures was flat at $69.39 per barrel.

The escalating war between major oil producer Russia and Ukraine has kept a floor under the market this week.

“We may expect (Brent) oil prices to stay supported above the $70 level for now, as market participants continue to monitor the geopolitical developments,” said Yeap Jun Rong, market strategist at IG.

On Tuesday, Ukraine used US ATACMS missiles to strike Russian territory for the first time, Moscow said. Russian President Vladimir Putin lowered the bar for a possible nuclear attack.

“This marks a renewed build up in tensions in the Russia-Ukraine war and brings back into focus the risk of supply disruptions in the oil market,” ANZ analysts said in a note to clients.

On the demand side, US crude oil stocks rose by 4.75 million barrels in the week ended Nov. 15, market sources said on Tuesday, citing American Petroleum Institute figures.

That was a bigger build than the 100,000 barrel increase analysts polled by Reuters were expecting.

Gasoline inventories, however, fell by 2.48 million barrels, compared with analysts’ expectations for a 900,000-barrel increase.

Distillate stocks also fell, shedding 688,000 barrels last week, the sources said.

Official government data is due later on Wednesday.

In a boost to oil price sentiment, there were signs that China, the world’s largest crude importer, may have stepped up oil purchases this month after a period of weak imports.

Data from vessel tracker Kpler showed China’s crude imports are on track to end November at or close to record highs, an analyst told Reuters.

Weak imports by China so far this year have pulled down oil prices, with Brent sinking 20 percent from its April peak of more than $92 a barrel.