Riyadh’s population to hit 9.6m by 2030, driving demand for 305k new homes: Knight Frank

The Knight Frank report anticipates a significant rise in the expat population in Riyadh. Shutterstock
Short Url
Updated 25 October 2024
Follow

Riyadh’s population to hit 9.6m by 2030, driving demand for 305k new homes: Knight Frank

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s capital Riyadh is poised for significant population growth, with the number of residents projected to rise from 7 million in 2022 to 9.6 million by 2030, according to a new report.

London-based real estate consultancy Knight Frank projects that the city’s population will comprise 4.1 million Saudis and 5.5 million expatriates by the end of the decade, marking a 38 percent increase driven by a compound annual growth rate of 4.1 percent.

This will drive a need for 305,000 additional housing units for Saudi nationals between 2024 and 2034, driven by household formation, increased homeownership, and internal migration from other regions.

The forecast predicts greater growth than envisaged by World Population Review, which in April used UN figures to put Riyadh’s 2030 population at 8.5 million.

The Knight Frank report anticipates a significant rise in the expat population in Riyadh, which on current figures makes up approximately 52.3 percent of the city’s total population. 

It projects an increase of 1.85 million expats by 2030, followed by an additional 2.3 million by 2034. As a result, the ratio of Saudi nationals to non-Saudis is expected to decline from 0.92 in 2022 to 0.75 by 2030.

This shift is primarily driven by the rising demand for expat workers needed to support the construction of large-scale developments and manage the new facilities in Riyadh.

Estimating housing demand from this group is challenging due to variations in household sizes, according to Knight Frank, but 77 percent of expats indicated a desire to own their homes in a previous survey conducted by the firm.

Riyadh’s growth is underpinned by Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, which aims to diversify the economy and increase global investments. Currently, Riyadh makes up 21.8 percent of the Kingdom’s total population, with 17.8 percent of Saudi nationals living in the capital.

With the Regional Headquarters Program encouraging multinational companies to relocate their regional operations to Saudi Arabia, Riyadh has naturally become the focal point for economic activity.

This initiative, combined with significant infrastructure and urban development projects, is driving both the expatriate and Saudi populations to rise.

Major projects, such as the New Murabba and Diriyah Gate, are further establishing Riyadh as the center of Saudi Arabia’s transformation.

Riyadh is also gearing up for Expo 2030 and World Cup 2034, which will see the construction of eight out of 11 new stadiums. To support this growth, the King Salman International Airport will be established, along with Riyadh Air, connecting the capital to 100 global cities.

According to the Ministry of Investment’s latest report, the capital led foreign direct investment inflows in 2023, attracting SR33 billion — positioning Riyadh as the leading administrative region.

This growth reflects the city’s role as both the Kingdom’s political and economic powerhouse, where investor confidence is bolstered by large-scale developments and strategic government initiatives.

With 62 percent of the population under 30 according to Knight Frank, the city is focused on providing new housing, employment opportunities, and recreational options to meet the demands of its young and rapidly growing demographic.

Riyadh’s workforce to expand by 39 percent by 2034

Knight Frank forecasts the number of working-age Saudi nationals in Riyadh will increase by about 1 million over the next decade, reaching 4.2 million, which corresponds to a compound annual growth rate of 2.8 percent.

If internal migrants relocate to Riyadh for work, this could add another 275,000, resulting in a total workforce growth of 36 percent.

As of the first quarter of 2024, the employment-to-population ratio for working-age Saudi nationals is 54.3 percent, suggesting that around 510,000 new local employees may enter the workforce by 2034.

With an estimated existing workforce of 1.7 million Saudis in the region, overall growth could yield an increase of 16 percent to 23 percent by 2030 and 29 percent to 39 percent by 2034, depending on the scale of internal migration.

During this recent period, new workforce entrants were primarily absorbed by the private sector and government-related entities, while employment in the civil service has remained stable, the report said.

According to latest figures from the World Bank, female labor force participation has reached 34.5 percent, exceeding the Vision 2030 target of 30 percent and prompting a new goal of 40 percent by 2030.

Both government and private sectors are implementing legal reforms and initiatives to empower women, with programs focusing on women’s roles in economic development.

Companies such as Red Sea Global are prioritizing gender diversity, with women occupying significant positions across various departments.

Meeting future demand

Riyadh’s new housing supply comes from four main sources, including the Ministry of Housing, which oversees affordable projects through the National Housing Company and private firms.

There are also government developments led by the Public Investment Fund and Roshn, private sector initiatives from real estate companies, and self-development by families purchasing land for construction.

Currently, about 330,000 housing units have been announced by government-related entities.

The projected demand from Saudi nationals is estimated at 220,000 units from 2024 to 2030 and 305,000 units from 2024 to 2034, suggesting that current construction efforts align with expected housing needs.

Knight Frank reported that significant commercial real estate development is underway in Riyadh to support a projected 32 percent increase in office space and a 24 percent rise in retail space by 2030, driven by an expanding workforce and a growing expat population.

The urgency for new projects across sectors like financial services, transport, storage, and ICT is underscored by tight market conditions.

Riyadh accounts for 30 percent of Saudi Arabia’s financial and business services output and 39 percent of transport, storage, and ICT output, reinforcing its status as a key hub for innovation and economic activity.


Saudi Arabia inaugurates Yanbu Grain Terminal to boost food security, trade

Updated 23 December 2024
Follow

Saudi Arabia inaugurates Yanbu Grain Terminal to boost food security, trade

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia has inaugurated the Yanbu Grain Handling Terminal, underscoring the Kingdom’s efforts to strengthen public-private partnerships, enhance agricultural trade, and bolster food security across the region.

The event was attended by Abdulrahman Al-Fadli, minister of environment, water and agriculture, and by various government and private sector officials, according to the Saudi Press Agency.

The Yanbu Grain Handling Terminal will serve both public and private sector importers, and boasts a storage capacity of 156,000 tonnes, including 12 silos with a combined capacity of 96,000 tonnes.

Food security has risen up the agenda in recent years, as countries in the Gulf contend with the impacts of climate change, the consequences of trade-disrupting conflicts such as the Ukraine-Russia war, and interruptions to supply routes through the Red Sea.

In September 2022, in response to these challenges, the Kingdom collaborated with regional partners to launch a food security action plan with an initial funding of $10 billion.

The Yanbu Grain Handling Terminal will be operated by the National Grains Co., a joint venture between the national shipping carrier Bahri and the Saudi Agricultural and Livestock Investment Co.

It features a 650-meter conveyor belt and a discharge rate of 800 tonnes per hour directly from ships, with an annual handling capacity exceeding 3 million tonnes of grain.

According to Bahr’s statement to the Saudi Stock Exchange, the inauguration delay was caused by the inclusion of additional requirements to enhance future operational efficiency, along with the construction of extra infrastructure to accommodate potential future expansions.

The company said that because of this the total project cost rose by 7 percent from the initially allocated SR412.5 million ($109.7 million), though the increase is not deemed significant.

The Yanbu Grain Handling Terminal aims to become a world-class logistics hub, connecting three continents and supporting the Kingdom’s vision for a resilient and efficient agricultural supply chain.

Established in 2020 as a strategic partnership between SALIC and Bahri, the National Grain Co. aims to fulfill the Kingdom’s future feed grain requirements while enhancing its global competitiveness.

It is committed to advancing grain trade, handling, and storage through the Yanbu terminal, strengthening supply chains and ensuring price stability across Saudi Arabia.

SALIC, a Public Investment Fund-owned company, was formed in 2011 to secure food supply for Saudi Arabia through mass production and investment.

When the project was announced in 2020, Al-Fadli, who is also the chairman of SALIC’s board of directors, said: “The project aims to enhance the velocity of the main grain influx to Saudi Arabia and is considered the first regional center for grains in the commercial port of Yanbu.”

 

He added that SALIC relies on the geographical location of the Kingdom and the port infrastructure to enhance food distribution in the region by linking the Kingdom to global grain sources, especially countries where SALIC is investing.

 

A grain delivery service to customers within the Kingdom has been introduced as part of the project, ensuring greater proximity to clients, enhanced customer experience, and improved profitability margins.


UAE’s ADNOC boosts drilling capabilities with 2 new jack-up rigs

Updated 23 December 2024
Follow

UAE’s ADNOC boosts drilling capabilities with 2 new jack-up rigs

  • ADNOC Drilling will expand its fleet to 142 platforms
  • UAE possesses the sixth-largest crude oil reserves globally

JEDDAH: The Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. has received two new jack-up rigs, reinforcing its position as one of the largest drillship fleet owners globally.

ADNOC Drilling will launch the new rigs by the first quarter of next year, expanding its fleet to 142 platforms. This marks a strong year for the company, showcasing its performance and strategy, according to UAE state news agency WAM.

For over 50 years, ADNOC Drilling has been the exclusive provider of drilling and rig-related services to ADNOC Group under agreed contractual terms, supporting the firm’s upstream operations in exploring and developing oil and gas resources in the UAE.

With most of the Gulf country’s crude oil and gas reserves located in Abu Dhabi, ADNOC oversees the majority of nationwide exploration, appraisal, development, and production activities, which are managed by ADNOC, either independently or in partnership with third parties.

In its analysis of the company’s performance, JPMorgan, a global financial services firm, said: “Since its initial public offering, ADNOC Drilling has proven to be a high-quality, defensive business, consistently meeting and surpassing guidance and expectations. The exceptional performance also reflects positive progress with ADNOC Drilling’s two joint ventures.”

The UAE possesses the sixth-largest crude oil reserves globally, with approximately 107 billion stock tank barrels of proven oil reserves. Since its inception in 1972, ADNOC Drilling has played a crucial role in enabling ADNOC to unlock the country’s oil and gas resources efficiently and reliably, contributing to the nation’s energy sector.

This year, Enersol, a joint venture between Alpha Dhabi Holding and ADNOC Drilling, acquired four oilfield services technology companies, while Turnwell, another business partnership between ADNOC, SLB, and Patterson-UTI, set a record for initial well delivery time, accelerating the development of the UAE’s unconventional energy reserves.

Following its second upward guidance revision this year alongside its third-quarter results, ADNOC Drilling is on track to deliver its best-ever performance in Q4. ADNOC Drilling anticipates at least mid-single-digit expansion as it scales operations, according to WAM.

ADNOC forecasts a rise in drilling activity in the coming years, driven by its commitment to increasing crude oil production capacity by 25 percent, reaching five million barrels per day by 2027.

As the company looks to expand beyond the UAE and explore opportunities in the region, it foresees a growing need to expand its rig fleet to support its strategic growth plans.

The energy giant believes that expanding its rig fleet will enhance its current capabilities in rig hire, drilling, completion services, and associated operations and enable the company to offer unconventional drilling and biogenic well services. This expansion is expected to contribute to increased revenue and profitability.


Terminal 4 at Cairo International Airport to boost Egypt’s aviation and tourism sectors

Updated 23 December 2024
Follow

Terminal 4 at Cairo International Airport to boost Egypt’s aviation and tourism sectors

RIYADH: Egypt is advancing its aviation sector with the ongoing development of Terminal 4 at Cairo International Airport, set to accommodate 30 million passengers annually.

According to a statement from the Cabinet, the “New Republic Air Gateway” project is expected to bolster the country’s tourism goals, improve traveler experiences, and position Egypt as an international aviation hub.

This year, the government announced plans to involve the private sector in airport management, including a global tender for Cairo International.

Egypt’s aviation sector also improved 36 spots to 27th in the 2024 edition of the Air Transport Infrastructure Index, aligning with Vision 2030’s focus on sustainable development, innovation, and global competitiveness.

Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly, during a meeting at the New Administrative Capital, reviewed progress on the project alongside Minister of Civil Aviation Sameh El-Hefny. The session focused on the terminal’s specifications, implementation strategy, and potential to reshape the African nation’s aviation and tourism landscapes.

“Airport development works come within the framework of presidential directives to upgrade the Egyptian airport system, raise its capacity and improve the level of services provided to passengers,” he said.

At the meeting, Madbouly emphasized the importance of creating world-class facilities to accommodate rising traveler numbers. 

El-Hefny outlined the project’s phased execution, with completion expected within four to five years. He also revealed that negotiations are underway with international firms specializing in airport construction and management to ensure world-class execution. 

The minister emphasized the cutting-edge features of the new terminal, including its ability to initially handle 30 million passengers annually, with expansion potential to 40 million. 

In September 2023, Cairo Airport Co. partnered with Pangiam, a trade and travel technology company, and signed two agreements to develop the new terminal. These deals, focused on enhancing the airport’s operations with advanced technology, include a feasibility study to incorporate emerging technologies and deliver a seamless travel experience.

The terminal will feature a state-of-the-art runway equipped with advanced navigation and lighting technologies that meet international standards. 

Once operational, Terminal 4 is expected to elevate Cairo International Airport’s global status, making it a hub for regional and international travel. 


Saudi banks report 24% profit growth amid strong non-interest income 

Updated 23 December 2024
Follow

Saudi banks report 24% profit growth amid strong non-interest income 

RIYADH: Saudi banks’ aggregate profit reached SR7.7 billion ($2.05 billion) in October, marking a 23.67 percent year-on-year increase, newly released data has revealed. 

According to the Saudi Central Bank, also known as SAMA, these figures represent profits before zakat and taxes. 

Cumulatively, from the beginning of the year to the end of October, banks recorded a total profit of SR73.28 billion, compared to SR64.47 billion during the same period last year. 

The increase in banks’ profits is primarily attributed to a combination of favorable factors that highlight the sector’s strength and ability to adapt.  

The third quarter of 2024 marked a significant turning point, with non-interest income playing a pivotal role.

According to a Fitch Ratings report published in November, strong gains on securities and trading contributed SR1.4 billion to non-interest income, offsetting higher financing impairment charges and helping push combined quarterly profits to SR20 billion.  

This growth followed SAMA’s decision to implement a 50-basis-point interest rate cut in September, which mirrored the US Federal Reserve’s shift toward a more accommodative monetary policy. 

The rising interest rate environment that characterized much of the Gulf region in recent years had previously bolstered bank returns on loans, as higher borrowing costs translated into greater income from financing activities. 

However, this dynamic also increased funding costs, particularly for savings accounts and external liabilities.   

Many Saudi banks navigated these challenges by diversifying their funding sources, tapping into external markets, and issuing a record $13 billion in debt in the first eight months of 2024 to meet growing foreign-currency financing demands, particularly for giga-projects.  

Despite these efforts, deposit growth in the third quarter of 2024 lagged behind earlier quarters, according to Fitch, reflecting the sector’s strategic pivot toward external funding to sustain its expansion.  

The recent shift in monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve, which influences rates in Saudi Arabia due to the riyal’s peg to the dollar, has injected new dynamics into the financial landscape. 

After a period of aggressive rate hikes to combat inflation, the Fed lowered interest rates by 50 basis points in September, followed by successive 25-basis-point cuts in November and December, signaling a focus on boosting economic growth as inflation eased to acceptable levels. 

This policy change benefited Saudi banks by improving the valuation of certain securities, as noted by Fitch, and created a more favorable environment for non-interest income growth. 

Another critical factor underpinning Saudi banks’ profitability has been their robust asset quality and prudent risk management.  

The average impaired financing ratio, according to Fitch Ratings, remained low at 1.5 percent by the end of the third quarter, with provision coverage at a healthy 116 percent.  

This stability reflects the resilience of Saudi banks in managing risks associated with their expanding financing books, which grew by 3.6 percent during the quarter, led by strong performances from banks like Aljazira, Saudi Awwal Bank, and Saudi Investment Bank. 

The sector’s healthy operating environment is supported by the Kingdom’s broader economic stability and strategic investments under Vision 2030, which continue to drive demand for corporate financing. 

While external liabilities and a negative net foreign asset position present challenges, Saudi banks remain well-capitalized, with average Common Equity Tier 1 ratios of 15.6 percent, and are positioned to maintain strong asset quality metrics as they navigate a shifting global monetary landscape. 

The combination of rising non-interest income, strategic funding diversification, and favorable monetary policy shifts underscores the resilience of Saudi Arabia’s banking sector, making it a key player in the region’s economic transformation. 

As SAMA continues to align with global trends, Saudi banks are poised to further strengthen their profitability while maintaining a balanced approach to growth and risk management. 


Saudi Arabia strengthens food security with trout farming breakthrough

Updated 23 December 2024
Follow

Saudi Arabia strengthens food security with trout farming breakthrough

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s food security strategy has received a boost with a trout farming project developed through a partnership between King Abdulaziz City for Science and Technology and King Abdulaziz University. 

The initiative, carried out at KACST’s research station in Al-Muzahmiyya Governorate, was supported by the Ministry of Environment, Water, and Agriculture’s National Livestock and Fisheries Development Program. 

The project introduces trout as a species suited for diverse environmental conditions, expanding the availability of fish with high nutritional value. This move aims to address the growing domestic demand for seafood while mitigating potential supply chain disruptions. 

This aligns with Saudi Vision 2030, which set a target of increasing domestic fish production to 600,000 tonnes annually to ensure sustainable food supplies. 

The initiative also supports the National Fisheries Development Program’s goals of optimizing resource use, boosting the sector’s contribution to gross domestic product, achieving seafood self-sufficiency, and diversifying income sources. 

The new project employs a recirculating aquaculture system, which uses less water than traditional methods and reduces the risk of parasites and viral infections that could harm fish. 

These advanced systems also regulate key environmental factors in fish farming, such as temperature, oxygen levels, and nutrition, thereby enhancing aquatic animals health and quality. 

This initiative aligns with the National Laboratory’s ongoing efforts to localize RAS technology using fresh water. 

Trout were farmed and raised from the egg incubation stage to the point where they reached a commercial size of over 1,200 grams. 

This success has encouraged the private sector to adopt the technology across various regions in Saudi Arabia, including Riyadh, Makkah, Al-Baha, and the northern regions. 

Trout and other cold-water river fish were specifically chosen for local farming to meet the growing demand for high-protein, omega-3-rich, and vitamin-packed fish, which are essential for human health. 

In October, the Ministry of Environment, Water, and Agriculture announced that Saudi Arabia’s fisheries and aquaculture production increased by 55.56 percent in 2023, surpassing 140,000 tonnes. This highlights the Kingdom’s commitment to achieving food self-sufficiency and promoting sustainable development. 

The ministry noted that the country has achieved record-breaking production levels in saltwater and inland aquaculture projects, surpassing the 90,000 tonnes recorded in 2021.

Aquaculture in the Kingdom, which began in 1982, has grown substantially, establishing the nation as a leading exporter of white shrimp.