Did the ice melt between Pakistan and India?

Much speculation was fueled by the recent visit to Islamabad of India’s foreign minister S. Jaishankar to attend a meeting of the 10-member Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Given the fraught relationship and prolonged diplomatic impasse between Pakistan and India, the media in both countries mulled over whether the visit would help to bring a thaw. This despite Jaishankar’s comments before the trip that he envisioned no bilateral engagement. Islamabad too declared it did not seek any meeting on the sidelines of the summit. Nevertheless, the first visit to Pakistan by an Indian foreign minister in over a decade continued to be the focus of intense media attention.

There were no acrimonious exchanges between the foreign ministers of the two countries in contrast to what happened when Pakistan’s foreign minister visited Goa last year for a meeting of the SCO council of ministers. Perfunctory handshakes and pleasantries took place rather than any verbal sparring. In his speech at the summit, Jaishankar did say terrorism was an obstacle to regional cooperation in what was clearly an indirect reference to Pakistan, but he did not name the country.

The media made much of the fact that he chatted to Pakistan’s foreign minister during a lunch attended by all the summit participants. There were even reports in the media that the issue of resuming cricketing ties – Pakistan is to host the Asia Cup next year – was raised by the Pakistani side. However, a spokesman of the Indian External Affairs ministry was quick to dismiss reports of any discussion on cricket links. He reiterated that Jaishankar’s visit was solely for the SCO Heads of Government meeting.

Former Prime Minister and leader of the ruling Muslim League-N, Nawaz Sharif made some comments to a group of visiting Indian journalists he hosted that received much media play. He said he saw Jaishankar’s visit as a positive sign that might lead to improvement in relations. He also hoped the two countries would restore cricketing ties and trade between them. These comments evoked no response from New Delhi, which in any case did not reflect official Pakistani policy.

The media noise over Jaishankar’s visit did little to obscure the reality that relations between the two neighbors remain frozen and there was no melting of the ice during his 24-hour stay in Islamabad. Indeed, the months before the SCO summit saw a stream of statements from Indian leaders critical of Pakistan, which reinforced the fact that Pakistan-India relations continued in the default setting of no war, no peace.

The media noise over Jaishankar’s visit did little to obscure the reality that relations between the two neighbors remain frozen and there was no melting of the ice during his 24-hour stay in Islamabad.

Maleeha Lodhi

In late July on the anniversary of the Kargil conflict, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said “Pakistan has not learned anything from its history. It is trying to keep itself relevant with the help of terrorism and proxy war.” He also called Pakistan “masters of terror”. In August the Indian foreign minister declared that the era of “uninterrupted dialogue” with Pakistan was over implying that Delhi will not engage with Islamabad until it took sustained action against terrorism. These statements indicated that the Modi government was not interested in resuming talks with Pakistan, apparently concluding that this hurts Pakistan, not India.

Relations had plunged to a new low after August 2019 with India’s illegal annexation, bifurcation and absorption of the disputed state of Jammu and Kashmir into the Indian union — in defiance of UN Security Council resolutions. Formal dialogue and the peace process were suspended by India long before this. But Delhi’s 2019 action, accompanied by a sweeping set of repressive measures prompted Pakistan to suspend trade and downgrade diplomatic ties by recalling its high commissioner. In the post-2019 period, India continued its repressive policy and human rights violations in Kashmir. Despite Pakistan’s protests, India also undertook a slew of sweeping legal, demographic, and electoral changes aimed at disempowering and disenfranchising Kashmiri Muslims. This further vitiated the climate and left ties more strained.

Against this backdrop there are formidable difficulties in the path of normalization of relations. India’s terms for any re-engagement which involve a refusal to even discuss Kashmir is a key obstacle to the resumption of any dialogue. As for reviving trade between the two countries, that too presents a major challenge. While constituencies for expanding bilateral trade exist on both sides, Delhi has thus far, shown no interest in reviving economic ties. India imposed 200 percent tariff on Pakistani imports following the Pulwama incident in February 2019 which will have to be reversed if trade ties are to be renewed.

The near-term outlook for Pakistan-India relations remains uncertain. The need for a working relationship between the two nuclear neighbors cannot be disputed. Regular communication is essential to manage tensions and minimize the risk of miscalculation. Norma­li­sa­tion of ties, however, has to be on a reciprocal and mutually beneficial basis. Perhaps a start can be made by re-establishing a back channel that explores the way forward and considers putting in place an agreed framework to manage tensions in order to prevent them spinning out of control.

- Maleeha Lodhi is a former Pakistani ambassador to the US, UK & UN. She posts on X with @LodhiMaleeha