BANGKOK: Three well-armed militias launched a surprise joint offensive in northeastern Myanmar a year ago, breaking a strategic stalemate with the regime’s military with rapid gains of huge swaths of territory and inspiring others to attack around the country.
The military’s control had seemed firmly ensconced with vast superiority in troops and firepower, plus material support from Russia and China. But today the government is increasingly on the back foot, with the loss of dozens of outposts, bases and strategic cities that even its leaders concede would be challenging to take back.
“The military is on the defensive all over the country, and every time it puts its energy into one part of the country, it basically has to shift troops and then is vulnerable in other parts,” said Connor Macdonald of the Special Advisory Council for Myanmar advocacy group.
“To us it doesn’t look like there’s any viable route back for the military to recapture any of the territory that it’s lost.”
The military seized power from the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi in February 2021, triggering intensified fighting with long-established armed militias organized by Myanmar’s ethnic minority groups in its border regions, which have struggled for decades for more autonomy.
The army’s takeover also sparked the formation of pro-democracy militias known as People’s Defense Forces. They support the opposition National Unity Government, which was established by elected lawmakers barred from taking their seats after the army takeover.
But until the launch of Operation 1027, eponymously named for its Oct. 27 start, the military, known as the Tatmadaw, had largely been able to prevent major losses around the country.
Operation 1027 brought coordinated attacks from three of the most powerful ethnic armed groups, known as the Three Brotherhood Alliance: the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, the Arakan Army and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army. The alliance quickly captured towns and overran military bases and outposts along the Chinese border in northeastern Shan state.
Two weeks later, the Arakan Army launched attacks in its western home state of Rakhine, and since then other militia groups and PDFs have joined in around the country.
Myanmar’s military has been pushed back to the country’s center
A year after the offensive began, resistance forces now fully or partially control a vast horseshoe of territory. It starts in Rakhine state in the west, runs across the north and then heads south into Kayah and Kayin states along the Thai border. The Tatmadaw has pulled back toward central Myanmar, around the capital Naypyidaw and largest city of Yangon.
“I never thought our goals would be achieved so quickly,” Lway Yay Oo, spokesperson for the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, told The Associated Press. “We only thought that we would attack the military council together to the extent we could, but it has been easier than expected so we’ve been able to conquer more quickly.”
Along the way, the Tatmadaw has suffered some humiliating defeats, including the loss of the city of Laukkai in an assault in which the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army captured more than 2,000 troops, including six generals; and of the city of Lashio, which had been home to the military’s Northeast Command.
“The 1027 offensive was a highly impressive operation, quite complex, and the use of drones played a big role because basically they were able to dismantle the military’s network of fire-support bases across northern Shan,” said Morgan Michaels, a Singapore-based analyst with the International Institute of Strategic Studies who runs its Myanmar Conflict Map project.
“And then, once the military’s artillery support eroded, they were able to overrun harder targets like towns and battalion headquarters.”
A year later, the military is “substantially weakened,” he said, but it’s too early to write it off.
The military has been weakened, but not defeated
The Tatmadaw has managed to claw back the town of Kawlin in the Sagaing region, which had fallen in the first days of the 1027 offensive, stave off an attack by three ethnic Karenni militias on Loikaw, the capital of Kayah state, and has retained administrative control of Myawaddy, a key border crossing with Thailand, after holding off an assault by one ethnic group with the assistance of a rival militia.
Many expect the military to launch a counteroffensive when the rainy season soon comes to an end, bolstered by some 30,000 new troops since activating conscription in February and its complete air superiority.
But at the same time, resistance groups are closing in on Mandalay, Myanmar’s second largest city, in the center of the country.
And where they might be out-gunned, they have gained strength, hard-won experience and confidence over the last year, said the Ta’ang National Liberation Army’s Lway Yay Oo.
“We have military experience on our side, and based on this experience we can reinforce the fighting operation,” she said.
Thet Swe, a spokesperson for the military regime, conceded it will be a challenge for the Tatmadaw to dislodge the Three Brotherhood Alliance from the territory it has gained.
“We cannot take it back during one year,” he told the AP in an emailed answer to questions. “However, I hope that I will give you a joyful message ... in (the) coming two or three years.”
Civilian casualties rise as the military turns more to indiscriminate strikes
As the military has faced setbacks in the fighting on the ground, it has been increasingly relying on indiscriminate air and artillery strikes, resulting in a 95 percent increase in civilian deaths from airstrikes and a 170 percent increase in civilians killed by artillery since the 1027 offensive began, according to a report last month by the United Nations’ Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights.
The Tatmadaw has been accused of deliberately targeting civilians whom it believes support the resistance militias, a tactic that is only turning more against them, said Isabel Todd, coordinator for the SAC-M group.
“It doesn’t seem to be having the effect that they want it to have,” she said. “It’s making them even more hated by the population and really strengthening the resolve to ensure that this is the end of the Myanmar military as it’s known.”
Military spokesperson Thet Swe denied targeting civilians, saying it was militia groups that were responsible for killing civilians and burning villages.
Hundreds of thousands of civilians have been displaced by the fighting, and there are now more than 3 million internally displaced people in Myanmar overall, and some 18.6 million people in need, according to the UN
At the same time, the 2024 humanitarian response plan is only 1/3 funded, hindering the delivery of aid, said Sajjad Mohammad Sajid, head of the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs operation in Myanmar.
“The humanitarian outlook for the next year is grim, and we anticipate that the deteriorating situation will have a massive impact on the protection of civilians,” he said in an interview.
In some areas, however, the offensive has eased pressure, like northwestern Chin state, which borders Bangladesh and India and had previously been the focus of many of the Tatmadaw’s operations, said Salai Htet Ni, a spokesperson for the Chin National Front whose armed wing has been involved in fighting the military.
“In October of last year the military convoys that were going up into the Chin mountains were withdrawn,” he said. “As a result of the 1027 operation there have been almost no major military activities.”
Success brings new tensions between resistance groups
As the front has expanded it has seen militias advancing out of their own ethnic areas, like when Rakhine-based Arakan Army in January seized the Chin town of Paletwa, which has given rise to some friction between groups, foreshadowing possible future strife should the Tatmadaw eventually fall.
In the case of Paletwa, Salai Htet Ni said his group was happy that the AA took it from the Tatmadaw, but added that there should have been negotiations before they began operating in Chin territory and that the AA should now bring Chin forces in to help administer the area.
“Negotiations are mandatory for these regional administration issues,” he said. “But we will negotiate this case through dialogue, not military means.”
At the moment there is a degree of solidarity between the different ethnic groups as they focus on a common enemy, but Aung Thu Nyein, director of communications for the Institute for Strategy and Policy-Myanmar think tank said that does not translate to common aspirations.
Should the Tatmadaw fall, it could lead to the fragmentation of Myanmar unless the groups work hard to resolve political and territorial differences.
“As far as I see, there is no established mechanism to resolve the issues,” he said. “The resistance being able to bring down the junta is unlikely, but I cannot discount this scenario, (and) if we cannot build trust and common goals, it could lead to the scenario of Syria.”
Chinese interests and ties with both sides complicate the picture
Complicating the political picture is the influence of neighboring China, which is believed to have tacitly supported the 1027 offensive in what turned out to be a successful bid to largely shut down organized crime activities that had been flourishing along its border.
In January, Beijing used its close ties with both the Tatmadaw and the Three Brotherhood groups to negotiate a ceasefire in northern Shan, which lasted for five months until the ethnic alliance opened phase two of the 1027 offensive in June, accusing the military of violating the ceasefire.
China has been displeased with the development, shutting down border crossings, cutting electricity to Myanmar towns and taking other measures in a thus-far unsuccessful attempt to end the fighting.
Its support for the regime also seems to be growing, with China’s envoy to Myanmar urging the powerful United Wa State Army, which wasn’t involved in the 1027 offensive or related fighting, to actively pressure the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army and Ta’ang National Liberation Army to halt the renewed offensive, according to leaked details of an August meeting widely reported by local media.
There is no evidence that the UWSA has done that, however.
“The idea that the northern groups and the Three Brotherhood Alliance etc. are somehow just agents of China is a complete misconception,” Todd said.
“They have their own objectives which they are pursuing that are independent of what China may or may not want them to do, and that’s apparent in the incredible amount of pressure that China has put on them recently.”
Because of the grassroot support for the resistance, it is less vulnerable to outside influence, said Kyaw Zaw, a spokesperson for the opposition National Unity Government.
“No matter who is putting pressure on us, we are winning because of the power of the people,” he said.
Resistance forces push military regime close to brink in Myanmar
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Resistance forces push military regime close to brink in Myanmar
- Before the offensive, the military’s control had seemed firmly ensconced with its vast superiority in troops and firepower, and aided with material support from Russia and China
- “To us it doesn’t look like there’s any viable route back for the military to recapture any of the territory that it’s lost”
'Massive' ballistic missile attack on Ukraine’s Kharkiv: mayor
- The regional governor counted seven Russian strikes and said casualties were still being assessed
Kyiv: A “massive missile attack” pummelled Ukraine’s northeastern city of Kharkiv, Mayor Igor Terekhov said on Wednesday morning.
“Kharkiv is under a massive missile attack. A series of explosions were heard in the city and there are still ballistic missiles heading toward the city,” he wrote on Telegram.
The regional governor counted seven Russian strikes and said casualties were still being assessed.
Russia’s defense ministry said Wednesday its forces had shot down 59 Ukrainian drones overnight while the Ukrainian Air Force reported the launch of Kalibr cruise missiles from the Black Sea, although it was not initially clear where they were headed.
Russia has accelerated its advance across eastern Ukraine in recent months, looking to secure as much territory as possible before US president-elect Donald Trump comes to power in January.
The Republican has promised to bring a swift end to the nearly three-year-long conflict, without proposing any concrete terms for a ceasefire or peace deal.
Moscow’s army claims to have seized more than 190 Ukrainian settlements this year, with Kyiv struggling to hold the line in the face of man power and ammunition shortages.
Japan’s top diplomat in China to address ‘challenges’
Beijing: Japanese foreign minister Takeshi Iwaya was due in Beijing on Wednesday for talks with counterpart Wang Yi and other top officials as Tokyo acknowledged “challenges and concerns” in ties.
The visit is Iwaya’s first to China since becoming Japan’s top diplomat earlier this year.
China and Japan are key trading partners, but increased friction over disputed territories and military spending has frayed ties in recent years.
Tensions also flared last year over Japan’s decision to begin releasing into the Pacific Ocean some of the 540 Olympic swimming pools’ worth of reactor cooling water amassed since the tsunami that led to the Fukushima nuclear disaster — an operation the UN atomic agency deemed safe.
China branded the move “selfish” and banned all Japanese seafood imports, but in September said it would “gradually resume” the trade.
China imported more than $500 million worth of seafood from Japan in 2022, according to customs data.
Iwaya told reporters in Tokyo on Tuesday that “China represents one of the most important bilateral relationships for us.”
“Between Japan and China, there are various possibilities but also multiple challenges and concerns,” he said.
“Both countries possess the heavy responsibilities for the peace and stability of our region and the international community,” he added.
China’s foreign ministry said Beijing sought to “strengthen dialogue and communication” in order to “properly manage differences” with Japan.
Beijing will “strive to build a constructive and stable China-Japan relationship that meets the requirements of the new era,” spokeswoman Mao Ning said.
Japan’s brutal occupation of parts of China before and during World War II also remains a sore point, with Beijing accusing Tokyo of failing to atone for its past.
Visits by Japanese officials to the Yasukuni shrine that honors war dead — including convicted war criminals — regularly prompt anger from Beijing.
Beijing’s more assertive presence around disputed territories in the region, meanwhile, has sparked Tokyo’s ire, leading it to boost security ties with key ally the United States and other countries.
In August, a Chinese military aircraft staged the first confirmed incursion by China into Japanese airspace, followed weeks later by a Japanese warship sailing through the Taiwan Strait for the first time.
Beijing’s rare test launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile into the Pacific Ocean in late September also drew strong protests from Tokyo, which said it had not been given advance notice.
China also in August formally indicted a Japanese man held since last year on espionage charges.
The man, an employee of the Japanese pharmaceutical company Astellas, was held in March last year and placed under formal arrest in October.
Trump vows to pursue executions after Biden commutes most of federal death row
- Presidents historically have no involvement in dictating or recommending the punishments that federal prosecutors seek for defendants in criminal cases, though Trump has long sought more direct control over the Justice Department’s operations
FORT LAUDERDALE, Florida: President-elect Donald Trump promised on Tuesday to “vigorously pursue” capital punishment after President Joe Biden commuted the sentences of most people on federal death row partly to stop Trump from pushing forward their executions.
Trump criticized Biden’s decision on Monday to change the sentences of 37 of the 40 condemned people to life in prison without parole, arguing that it was senseless and insulted the families of their victims. Biden said converting their punishments to life imprisonment was consistent with the moratorium imposed on federal executions in cases other than terrorism and hate-motivated mass murder.
“Joe Biden just commuted the Death Sentence on 37 of the worst killers in our Country,” he wrote on his social media site. “When you hear the acts of each, you won’t believe that he did this. Makes no sense. Relatives and friends are further devastated. They can’t believe this is happening!”
Presidents historically have no involvement in dictating or recommending the punishments that federal prosecutors seek for defendants in criminal cases, though Trump has long sought more direct control over the Justice Department’s operations. The president-elect wrote that he would direct the department to pursue the death penalty “as soon as I am inaugurated,” but was vague on what specific actions he may take and said they would be in cases of “violent rapists, murderers, and monsters.”
He highlighted the cases of two men who were on federal death row for slaying a woman and a girl, had admitted to killing more and had their sentences commuted by Biden.
Is it a plan in motion or more rhetoric?
On the campaign trail, Trump often called for expanding the federal death penalty — including for those who kill police officers, those convicted of drug and human trafficking, and migrants who kill US citizens.
“Trump has been fairly consistent in wanting to sort of say that he thinks the death penalty is an important tool and he wants to use it,” said Douglas Berman, an expert on sentencing at Ohio State University’s law school. “But whether practically any of that can happen, either under existing law or other laws, is a heavy lift.”
Berman said Trump’s statement at this point seems to be just a response to Biden’s commutation.
“I’m inclined to think it’s still in sort of more the rhetoric phase. Just, ‘don’t worry. The new sheriff is coming. I like the death penalty,’” he said.
Most Americans have historically supported the death penalty for people convicted of murder, according to decades of annual polling by Gallup, but support has declined over the past few decades. About half of Americans were in favor in an October poll, while roughly 7 in 10 Americans backed capital punishment for murderers in 2007.
Death row inmates are mostly sentenced by states
Before Biden’s commutation, there were 40 federal death row inmates compared with more than 2,000 who have been sentenced to death by states.
“The reality is all of these crimes are typically handled by the states,” Berman said.
A question is whether the Trump administration would try to take over some state murder cases, such as those related to drug trafficking or smuggling. He could also attempt to take cases from states that have abolished the death penalty.
Could rape now be punishable by death?
Berman said Trump’s statement, along with some recent actions by states, may present an effort to get the Supreme Court to reconsider a precedent that considers the death penalty disproportionate punishment for rape.
“That would literally take decades to unfold. It’s not something that is going to happen overnight,” Berman said.
Before one of Trump’s rallies on Aug. 20, his prepared remarks released to the media said he would announce he would ask for the death penalty for child rapists and child traffickers. But Trump never delivered the line.
What were the cases highlighted by Trump?
One of the men Trump highlighted on Tuesday was ex-Marine Jorge Avila Torrez, who was sentenced to death for killing a sailor in Virginia and later pleaded guilty to the fatal stabbing of an 8-year-old and a 9-year-old girl in a suburban Chicago park several years before.
The other man, Thomas Steven Sanders, was sentenced to death for the kidnapping and slaying of a 12-year-old girl in Louisiana, days after shooting the girl’s mother in a wildlife park in Arizona. Court records show he admitted to both killings.
Some families of victims expressed anger with Biden’s decision, but the president had faced pressure from advocacy groups urging him to make it more difficult for Trump to increase the use of capital punishment for federal inmates. The ACLU and the US Conference of Catholic Bishops were some of the groups that applauded the decision.
Biden left three federal inmates to face execution. They are Dylann Roof, who carried out the 2015 racist slayings of nine Black members of Mother Emanuel AME Church in Charleston, South Carolina; 2013 Boston Marathon bomber Dzhokhar Tsarnaev; and Robert Bowers, who fatally shot 11 congregants at Pittsburgh’s Tree of Life Synagogue in 2018, the deadliest antisemitic attack in UShistory.
Airstrikes target suspected Pakistani Taliban hideouts in Afghanistan
- The strikes were carried out in a mountainous area in Paktika province bordering Pakistan, said the officials
PESHAWAR, Pakistan: Pakistan in rare airstrikes targeted multiple suspected hideouts of the Pakistani Taliban inside neighboring Afghanistan on Tuesday, dismantling a training facility and killing some insurgents, four security officials said.
The strikes were carried out in a mountainous area in Paktika province bordering Pakistan, said the officials. They spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the media on the record. It was unclear whether the jets went deep inside Afghanistan, and how the strikes were launched.
No spokesman for Pakistan’s military was immediately available to share further details. But it was the second such attack on alleged hideouts of the Pakistani Taliban since March, when Pakistan said intelligence-based strikes took place in the border regions inside Afghanistan.
In Kabul, the Afghan Defense Ministry condemned the airstrikes by Pakistan, saying the bombing targeted civilians, including women and children.
It said that most of the victims were refugees from the Waziristan region.
“The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan considers this a brutal act against all international principles and blatant aggression and strongly condemns it,” the ministry said.
Local residents said at least eight people, including women and children, were killed in the airstrikes by Pakistan. They said the death toll from the strikes may rise.
In a post on the X platform, the Afghan defense ministry said the Pakistani side should know that such unilateral measures are not a solution to any problem.
“The Islamic Emirate will not leave this cowardly act unanswered but rather considers the defense of its territory and territory to be its inalienable right.”
The strikes came hours after Mohammad Sadiq, Pakistan’s special representative for Afghanistan, traveled to Kabul to discuss a range of issues, including how to enhance bilateral trade, and improve ties.
Sadiq during the visit met with Sirajuddin Haqqani, Afghanistan’s acting interior minister, to offer his condolences over the Dec. 11 killing of his uncle Khalil Haqqani. He was the minister for refugees and repatriation who died in a suicide bombing that was claimed by a regional affiliate of the Daesh group.
Sadiq in a post on X said he also met with Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi and he “held wide ranging discussions. Agreed to work together to further strengthen bilateral cooperation as well as for peace and progress in the region.”
A delegation of the pro-Taliban Jamiat-e-Ulema Islam also visited Kabul on Tuesday to convey condolences over the killing of Haqqani’s uncle.
Islamabad often claims that the Pakistani Taliban use Afghan soil to launch attacks in Pakistan, a charge Kabul has denied.
Syed Muhammad Ali, an Islamabad-based security expert, said Tuesday’s airstrike “represents a clear and blunt warning to Pakistani Taliban that Pakistan will use all the available means against the terrorist outfit both inside and outside its borders.” However, it is not an indiscriminate use of force and due care was taken by Pakistan in ensuring that only the terrorist bases were hit and no civilian loss of life and property took place, he said.
The Afghan Taliban seized power in Afghanistan in 2021 and the Taliban takeover in Afghanistan has emboldened the Pakistani Taliban, known as Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, whose leaders and fighters are hiding in Afghanistan.
The TTP has stepped up attacks on Pakistani soldiers and police since November 2022, when it unilaterally ended a ceasefire with the government after the failure of months of talks hosted by Afghanistan’s government in Kabul. The TTP in recent months has killed and wounded dozens of soldiers in attacks inside the country.
On Christmas Eve, Pope Francis launches holy Jubilee year
- Pope had drawn an angry response from Israel at the weekend for condemning the “cruelty” of Israel’s strikes in Gaza that killed children
VATICAN CITY: Pope Francis opened the “Holy Door” of St. Peter’s Basilica on Christmas Eve on Tuesday, launching the Jubilee year of Catholic celebrations set to draw more than 30 million pilgrims to Rome.
The 88-year-old pontiff, who has recently been suffering from a cold, was pushed in a wheelchair up to the huge, ornate bronze door and knocked on it, before the doors opened.
In a ceremony watched on screens by thousands of faithful outside in St. Peter’s Square, the Argentine pontiff went through the door followed by a procession, as the bells of the Vatican basilica rang out.
Over the next 12 months, Catholic pilgrims will pass through the door — which is normally bricked up — by tradition benefiting from a “plenary indulgence,” a type of forgiveness for their sins.
Pope Francis then presided over the Christmas Eve mass in St. Peter’s, where he turned once again to the victims of war.
“We think of wars, of machine-gunned children, of bombs on schools and hospitals,” he said in his homily.
The pope had drawn an angry response from Israel at the weekend for condemning the “cruelty” of Israel’s strikes in Gaza that killed children.
He was due to deliver his traditional Christmas Day blessing, Urbi et Orbi (to the city and the world), at midday on Wednesday.
Some 700 security officers are being deployed around the Vatican and Rome for the Jubilee celebrations, with measures further tightened following Friday’s car-ramming attack on a Christmas market in Germany.
Much of Rome has also been given a facelift in preparation, with monuments such as the Trevi Fountain and the Ponte Sant’Angelo cleaned up and roads redesigned to improve the flow of traffic.
Many residents have questioned how the Eternal City — where key sites are already overcrowded and public transport is unreliable — will cope with millions more visitors next year.
Key Jubilee projects were only finished in the last few days after months of work that turned much of the city into a building site.
Inaugurating a new road tunnel at Piazza Pia next to the Vatican on Monday, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said it had taken a “little civil miracle” to get the project finished in time.
Over the course of the next few days, Holy Doors will be opened in Rome’s three major basilicas and in Catholic churches around the world.
On Thursday, Pope Francis will open a Holy Door at Rebibbia prison in Rome and preside over a mass in a show of support for the inmates.
Organized by the Church every 25 years, the Jubilee is intended as a period of reflection and penance, and is marked by a long list of cultural and religious events, from masses to exhibitions, conferences and concerts.
“It’s my first time in Rome and for me, to be here at the Vatican, I feel already blessed,” said Lisbeth Dembele, a 52-year-old French tourist visiting St. Peter’s Square earlier.
The Jubilee, whose motto this year is “Pilgrims of Hope,” is primarily aimed at the world’s almost 1.4 billion Catholics, but also aims to also reach a wider audience.
Traditions have evolved since the first such event back in 1300, launched by Pope Boniface VIII.
This year, the Vatican has provided pilgrims with online registration and multilingual phone apps to navigate events.