Arab Americans’ vote will matter in this election, Middle East Institute panel hears

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Updated 29 October 2024
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Arab Americans’ vote will matter in this election, Middle East Institute panel hears

LONDON: Just days before Americans head to the polls to decide who will be the next US president, Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris find themselves neck and neck in the race for the White House. With the contest balanced on a razor’s edge, any minor development at this point could be enough to decisively swing the vote.

Although they make up just 1 percent of the total electorate, Arab Americans represent a significant constituency in several swing states, where even a handful of votes could influence the election outcome. As such, neither of the main candidates can afford to take their votes for granted.

That is why Arab News teamed up with polling agency YouGov to survey the attitudes of Arab Americans across all geographies, age ranges, genders and income brackets to see which way the community was leaning, and what issues mattered to them most.

What became abundantly clear from the survey was that Arab Americans are not a monolith motivated by any single issue. Domestic matters, such as the economy and the cost of living, loomed large, while border security and abortion rights were also key considerations.

However, it was the plight of the Palestinians that emerged as the biggest issue for Arab Americans of all generations; namely the ongoing Israeli offensive against Hamas in Gaza and the perceived failure of President Joe Biden’s administration to rein in Israel.




Asked which candidate they were most likely to vote for, 45 percent said Trump while 43 percent opted for Harris. (AFP/File)

Brian Katulis, a senior fellow for US foreign policy at Middle East Institute, who moderated a special panel discussion on Monday to examine the poll findings, said the prominence of the Palestinian issue in this election showed there was still a role for the US to play in the region.

“Within the political discussion we’re having in this country, it does imply that there’s actually a strong interest in the US engaging more deeply in the Middle East — just doing it in the right way,” said Katulis.

“There’s a serious difference over who and which candidate is the right way. But for those who’ve said that we should just pull back from the region, restrain ourselves, there’s some who say that, but I think there’s a general impulse here that we need to actually delve more deeply into trying to solve — or not solve, but engage — these questions in a proper way in the region itself, but then politically here at home.”

Asked to place six key issues in order of priority, 26 percent of Arab Americans polled by YouGov said the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is their chief concern. The economy and the cost of living were not far behind, representing the chief concerns for 19 percent of respondents.

“The highest priority, in terms of issues that Arab Americans face, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict came at 26 percent — the highest — then followed by the economy and cost of living,” Lara Barazi, a freelance data consultant and former research director at YouGov, told the MEI panel.

Palestine appeared to be of most concern to Arab Americans in lower income brackets: 37 percent of those earning under $40,000, falling to 22 percent among those paid $80,000 or more.

“These are their issues that kind of mirror what’s going on right now in the US, not only for Arab Americans, when we look at income,” said Barazi.




If Harris does beat Trump to the presidency, it remains unclear whether she will shift the Democratic Party’s stance on Israel. (AFP/File)

“The highest priority goes to the Palestinian conflict. It’s 41 percent of the lowest earners who support the Palestinian-Israeli conflict versus the highest earners. Basically, they’re interested in the economy, cost of living and the Palestinian conflict, but they do put a lot of weight on the economy and cost of living.”

What was also interesting about the findings was how much of a priority the Middle East conflict was for respondents identifying as Republican, Democrat and independent.

“We see that the highest (ranking) for the Palestinian-Israeli conflict comes from independents and the lowest comes from Republicans,” said Barazi. “Only 17 percent of Republicans said that the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is a top priority for us, while cost of living comes the highest for Republicans.”

Despite Trump being perceived as more supportive of the Israeli government than Harris, many Arab Americans indicated in the poll that they would still vote for him, which suggested they are penalizing the Democrats over the Biden administration’s perceived failure to rein in Israel.

Asked which candidate they were most likely to vote for, 45 percent said Trump while 43 percent opted for Harris, although this gap could easily be narrowed — or slightly widened — by the survey’s 5.93 percent margin of error.

The slightly higher support for Trump than for Harris comes despite the fact that 40 percent of those polled described themselves as Democrats, 28 percent as Republicans and 23 percent as independents.

The findings were somewhat puzzling, especially as Trump has announced his intention to expand his 2017 travel ban on people from seven majority-Muslim countries (Iran, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria and Yemen) and has said if elected he would bar Palestinian refugees from entering the US, policies that few Arab Americans would support.

Nevertheless, it appears Biden’s record on the Middle East over the past year has been the deciding factor for many.

Also taking part in Monday’s MEI panel discussion, Yasmeen Abu Taleb, a White House reporter at The Washington Post, said the Democrats never expected the issue of Palestine to hang over the campaign in the way that it has.




Despite Trump being perceived as more supportive of the Israeli government than Harris, many Arab Americans indicated in the poll that they would still vote for him. (AFP/File)


“We’ve never seen the issue of Palestine be this big of a political issue for this long,” she said. “I think in the Biden administration, there was a sense that people would be really angry and protest for a month or two. They hoped the war would be over by January.

“They were always wildly optimistic that this was not going to hang over them as an election issue. And here we are, more than a year later, and it’s still a key driver of the election. I think that’s an important signal of how much the politics have shifted on this.

“I don’t think we’ve seen this in US politics, where the debate has been this intense and sustained.”

If Harris does beat Trump to the presidency, it remains unclear whether she will shift the Democratic Party’s stance on Israel or if the policy of the Biden administration, of which she is part, will remain broadly unchanged.

“Obviously it depends on who wins but I do think if you saw a Harris presidency, it’s not going to be the dramatic change that people are pushing for,” said Abu Taleb. “But I do think there are signs that the Democratic Party is shifting on Israel, and in subtle but important ways.”

Although the Arab News-YouGov poll focused on Arab American opinion, the panel discussion naturally expanded to the prevailing attitudes among the Arab populations and leaderships in the Middle East. Tarek Ali Ahmad, head of research and studies at Arab News, said that many in the Middle East are holding their breath.

“People are essentially just waiting for the election day to come,” he added. “That’s when everyone’s going to be like, OK, now we can finally stop this election game, campaigning, and we can actually get to solid, concrete policy that will affect what’s going to happen, whether or not we’re going to see an actual end to the conflict, or we’re going to see even further.

“We haven’t heard anything in terms of preference to whichever candidate comes through. But at the same time, we cannot dismiss the fact that any incoming president will have a lot to clean up with regards to everything that’s happening on the ground.”




“So there’s so many different aspects that come to shift public opinion on the ground with regards to who’s going to be president,” Ali Ahmad said. (AFP/File)

On whether or not the Arab world has any preference for the US presidency, Ali Ahmad said many in the region have remained tight-lipped, preferring to wait and see the outcome of this closely fought race.

“There’s a lot of different points of view and there’s no real proper preference for either candidate because of the fact that it’s just such a razor-thin difference,” he said.

“Now you have people on the ground talking about how, essentially, every single event that occurs causes a shift in opinion, from (Israel) entering into Lebanon, from the bombing of Iran, to even Biden’s resignation from the nomination.

“So there’s so many different aspects that come to shift public opinion on the ground with regards to who’s going to be president.”

Reflecting on the significance of the role of the Arab American constituency in the election, Ali Ahmad said many seem to recognize their vote can make a significant difference.

“The reason why there’s a big turnout, as we said, nine out of 10 Americans are set to go vote, is that 80 percent of those who responded found that their vote actually counts and will matter in this year's election,” he said.

“They really feel that they could actually change it and make that difference, whether it is to punish the Democrats or whether it is to actually vote for an independent.”

 


US Army veteran accused of trying to join Hezbollah

Updated 10 sec ago
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US Army veteran accused of trying to join Hezbollah

  • Jack Danaher Molloy was arrested in Chicago last month and brought to Pennsylvania on Monday to face charges
  • Molloy traveled to Lebanon in August and attempted to join Hezbollah, which the US has designated as a “terrorist” group, says DOJ indictment

Jack Danaher Molloy was arrested in Chicago last month and brought to Pennsylvania on Monday to face charges, says DOJ indictment

Molloy traveled to Lebanon in August and attempted to join Hezbollah, which the US has designated as a “terrorist” group, says DOJ indictment

 

WASHINGTON: A US Army veteran who allegedly went to Lebanon and Syria to try to join Hezbollah has been indicted for attempting to support a “terrorist” organization, the Justice Department said Thursday.
Jack Danaher Molloy, 24, a dual US-Irish national, was arrested in Chicago last month and brought to Pennsylvania on Monday to face charges, the department said in a statement.
According to the indictment, Molloy traveled to Lebanon in August and attempted to join Hezbollah, which Washington has designated as a “terrorist” group.
When his efforts were rebuffed, he went to Syria in an attempt to join the organization there.
Molloy returned to the United States and allegedly continued his attempts to join Hezbollah, communicating online with individuals in Lebanon.
According to the Justice Department, Molloy promoted violence against Jewish people on social media and said in a WhatsApp exchange with a family member that his “master plan was to join Hezbollah and kill Jews.”
Molloy faces up to 20 years in prison if convicted of providing material support to a “terrorist” organization.

 

 


South Korea investigators attempt to arrest President Yoon

Updated 34 min 24 sec ago
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South Korea investigators attempt to arrest President Yoon

SEOUL: South Korean investigators entered the presidential residence early Friday seeking to arrest Yoon Suk Yeol, with the impeached leader’s die-hard supporters massing outside to protect him, AFP reporters saw.
Investigators from the Corruption Investigation Office (CIO), which is probing Yoon’s short-lived declaration of martial law, were let through heavy security barricades to enter the residence to attempt to execute their warrant to detain Yoon.
Yoon, who has already been suspended from duty by lawmakers, would become the first sitting president in South Korean history to be arrested.
Senior CIO prosecutor Lee Dae-hwan was seen entering the compound with other officials, according to AFP reporters.
Dozens of police buses and hundreds of uniformed police lined the street outside the compound in central Seoul, AFP reporters saw.
Some 2,700 police and 135 police buses have been deployed to the area to prevent clashes, the Yonhap news agency reported, after Yoon’s supporters faced off with anti-Yoon demonstrators Thursday.
Yoon has been holed up inside the residence since a court approved the warrant to detain him earlier this week, vowing to “fight” authorities seeking to question him over his failed martial law bid.
The embattled leader issued the bungled declaration on December 3 that led to his impeachment and has left him facing arrest, imprisonment or, at worst, the death penalty.
It was unclear whether the Presidential Security Service, which still protects Yoon as the country’s sitting head of state, would comply with investigators’ warrants.
Members of his security team have previously blocked attempted police raids of his presidential residence.
After staging chaotic protests Thursday, a handful of Yoon’s die-hard supporters, which include far-right YouTube personalities and evangelical Christian preachers, had camped outside his compound all night — some holding all-night prayer sessions.
“Illegal warrant is invalid” they chanted early Friday, as police and media gathered outside the residence.
“Yoon Suk Yeol, Yoon Suk Yeol,” they yelled, waving red glow sticks.
Yoon’s lawyer confirmed to AFP Thursday that the impeached leader remained inside the presidential compound.
Yoon’s legal team has filed for an injunction to a constitutional court to block the warrant, calling the arrest order “an unlawful and invalid act,” and also submitted an objection to the Seoul court that ordered it.
But the head of the CIO, Oh Dong-woon, has warned that anyone trying to block authorities from arresting Yoon could themselves face prosecution.
Along with the summons, a Seoul court issued a search warrant for his official residence and other locations, a CIO official told AFP.
South Korean officials have previously failed to execute similar arrest warrants for lawmakers — in 2000 and 2004 — due to party members and supporters blocking police for the seven-day period the warrants were valid.


Brazil examining black boxes from crashed Russia-bound plane

Updated 53 min 9 sec ago
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Brazil examining black boxes from crashed Russia-bound plane

BRASILIA: Brazil has started examining the black box recorders from a Brazilian-made jetliner that crashed in Kazakhstan, killing 38 of the 67 people aboard, the air force said Thursday.
The Azerbaijan Airlines plane, an Embraer 190, crash-landed on Christmas Day as it flew to the Chechen capital Grozny in southern Russia.
The Brazilian air force said in a statement that the data from the recorders would be extracted and analyzed as soon as possible.
These devices captured cockpit dialogue and flight data from the plane. They are being examined by the Aeronautical Accidents Investigation and Prevention Center, a unit of the Brazilian air force.
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has demanded that Moscow admit it mistakenly fired on the plane as it tried to make a scheduled landing at the Grozny airport.
Russia has not confirmed that one of its air-defense missiles hit the plane, though President Vladimir Putin told Aliyev in a phone call that the systems were active at the time and that he was sorry the incident took place in Russian airspace.
Russia said Grozny was being attacked by Ukrainian drones when the airliner approached to make its landing through thick fog.
Investigators from Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Russia have traveled to Brazil for the investigation, officials said.
The Brazilian air force said Kazakhstan is in charge of releasing the results of the black box analysis.
 


Bosnia peace envoy declares Serb parliament’s orders illegal

Updated 03 January 2025
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Bosnia peace envoy declares Serb parliament’s orders illegal

  • Lawmakers in Bosnia’s Serb-dominated regional parliament last week ordered Serb delegates in the central government to block legal reforms needed for Bosnia’s integration into the EU

SARAJEVO: Bosnia’s international peace envoy on Thursday sought to keep the country’s European Union integration on track by rejecting the Serb Republic parliament’s orders last week that would have blocked progress.
The lawmakers in Bosnia’s Serb-dominated regional parliament last week ordered Serb delegates in the central government to block legal reforms needed for Bosnia’s integration into the EU.
High Representative Christian Schmidt, whose authority Serbs do not recognize, on Thursday prohibited “any attempt to implement the dangerous elements” of those orders.
The Dayton Accords that ended 3-1/2 years of ethnic war in the Balkan country in 1995 gave the high representative final authority over whether such decisions are allowed under the peace deal.
The peace accords split Bosnia into two autonomous regions, the Orthodox Serb-dominated Serb Republic and a federation dominated by Catholic Croats and Muslim Bosniaks, linked in a weak central government. That secured peace but left Bosnia dysfunctional as a state.
Schmidt’s move on Thursday was part of his efforts to stop Bosnia from sliding into a new political crisis and keep EU integration advancing.
Serb Republic President Milorad Dodik has tried for years to withdraw the region from Bosnia and has sought to stop state institutions from functioning. He is on trial in a Bosnian court on charges of defying Schmidt’s decisions.


US Army soldier shot self in head before Cybertruck exploded outside Trump’s Las Vegas hotel, officials say

Updated 03 January 2025
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US Army soldier shot self in head before Cybertruck exploded outside Trump’s Las Vegas hotel, officials say

LAS VEGAS: The highly decorated US Army soldier inside the Tesla Cybertruck that burst into flames outside President-elect Donald Trump’s Las Vegas hotel shot himself in the head before the explosion and likely planned to cause more damage but the steel-sided vehicle absorbed much of the force from the rudimentary explosive, officials said Thursday.
Clark County Sheriff Kevin McMahill said at a news conference that a handgun was found at the feet of the man in the driver’s seat, who officials believe is Matthew Livelsberger, 37, of Colorado. The shot appeared to be self-inflicted, officials said.
Damage from the blast was mostly limited to the interior of the truck. The explosion “vented out and up” and didn’t hit the Trump hotel doors just a few feet away, the sheriff said.
“The level of sophistication is not what we would expect from an individual with this type of military experience,” said Kenny Cooper, a special agent in charge for the the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives.

 

Among other charred items found inside the truck were a second firearm, a number of fireworks, a passport, a military ID, credit cards, an iPhone and a smartwatch, McMahill said. Authorities said both guns were purchased legally.
The remains were burned beyond recognition and investigators have not definitively identified them as Livelsberger, but the IDs and tattoos on the body “give a strong indication that it’s him,” the sheriff said.
Livelsberger served in the Green Berets, highly trained special forces who work to counter terrorism abroad and train partners. He had served in the Army since 2006, rising through the ranks with a long career of overseas assignments, deploying twice to Afghanistan and serving in Ukraine, Tajikistan, Georgia and Congo, the Army said.
He was awarded a total of five Bronze Stars, including one with a valor device for courage under fire, a combat infantry badge and an Army Commendation Medal with valor. Livelsberger was on approved leave when he died, according to the statement.
McMahill said Livelsberger rented the Tesla electric vehicle in Denver on Saturday and the sheriff displayed a map showing that it was charged in the Colorado town of Monument near Colorado Springs on Monday. On New Year’s Eve, it was charged in Trinidad, Colorado, and three towns in New Mexico along the Interstate 40 corridor.
Then on Wednesday, the day of the explosion, it was charged in three Arizona towns before video showed it on the Las Vegas Strip about 7:30 a.m.
McMahill said investigators obtained charging station photos showing Livelsberger “was the individual that was driving this vehicle” and was alone.
“We’re not aware of any other subjects involved in this particular case,” the sheriff said.

 

Authorities searched a townhouse in Colorado Springs, Colorado, on Thursday as part of the investigation. Neighbors said the man who lived there had a wife and a baby and did not give any sign of posing a danger to anyone.
Cindy Helwig, who lives diagonally across a narrow street separating the homes, said she last saw the man she knew as Matthew about two weeks ago when he asked her if she had a tool he needed to fix the SUV he was working on.
“He was a normal guy,” said Helwig, who said she last saw his wife and baby earlier this week. Helwig noted that people in the townhome on a hill with views of the mountains don’t interact much except for when they’re getting the mail or walking their dogs.
Another neighbor, Keni Mac, who said she had only seen the man around the neighborhood, said he had tattoos and an “even keeled” demeanor. Mac said she saw the wife, who goes to her gym, walking their dog Wednesday morning.
The explosion of the truck, packed with firework mortars and camp fuel canisters, came hours after 42-year-old Shamsud-Din Bahar Jabbar rammed a truck into a crowd in New Orleans’ famed French Quarter early on New Year’s Day, killing at least 15 people before being shot to death by police. That crash was being investigated as a terrorist attack. The FBI said Thursday that they believe Jabbar acted alone, reversing its position from a day earlier that he likely worked with others.
Both Livelsberger and Jabbar spent time at the base formerly known as Fort Bragg, a massive Army base in North Carolina that is home to multiple Army special operations units. However, one of the officials who spoke to the AP said there is no overlap in their assignments at the base, now called Fort Liberty.
Chris Raia, FBI deputy assistant director, said Thursday that officials have found ‘no definitive link’ between the New Orleans attack and the truck explosion in Las Vegas.
Seven people nearby suffered minor injuries when the Tesla truck exploded. Video showed a tumble of charred fireworks mortars, canisters and other explosive devices crowded into the back of the pickup. The truck bed walls were still intact because the blast shot straight up rather than to the sides.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk said Wednesday afternoon on X that “we have now confirmed that the explosion was caused by very large fireworks and/or a bomb carried in the bed of the rented Cybertruck and is unrelated to the vehicle itself.”
Musk has recently become a member of Trump’s inner circle. Neither Trump nor Musk was in Las Vegas early Wednesday. Both had attended Trump’s New Year’s Eve party at his South Florida estate.
“It’s not lost on us that it’s in front of the Trump building, that it’s a Tesla vehicle, but we don’t have information at this point that definitively tells us or suggests it was because of this particular ideology,” said Spencer Evans, the FBI’s special agent in charge in Las Vegas.
Musk spent an estimated $250 million during the presidential campaign to support the former president. He was at Trump’s resort on election night and has been a frequent guest there. Trump has named Musk, the world’s richest man, to co-lead a new effort to find ways to cut the government’s size and spending.