Arab Americans’ vote will matter in this election, Middle East Institute panel hears

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Updated 29 October 2024
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Arab Americans’ vote will matter in this election, Middle East Institute panel hears

LONDON: Just days before Americans head to the polls to decide who will be the next US president, Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris find themselves neck and neck in the race for the White House. With the contest balanced on a razor’s edge, any minor development at this point could be enough to decisively swing the vote.

Although they make up just 1 percent of the total electorate, Arab Americans represent a significant constituency in several swing states, where even a handful of votes could influence the election outcome. As such, neither of the main candidates can afford to take their votes for granted.

That is why Arab News teamed up with polling agency YouGov to survey the attitudes of Arab Americans across all geographies, age ranges, genders and income brackets to see which way the community was leaning, and what issues mattered to them most.

What became abundantly clear from the survey was that Arab Americans are not a monolith motivated by any single issue. Domestic matters, such as the economy and the cost of living, loomed large, while border security and abortion rights were also key considerations.

However, it was the plight of the Palestinians that emerged as the biggest issue for Arab Americans of all generations; namely the ongoing Israeli offensive against Hamas in Gaza and the perceived failure of President Joe Biden’s administration to rein in Israel.




Asked which candidate they were most likely to vote for, 45 percent said Trump while 43 percent opted for Harris. (AFP/File)

Brian Katulis, a senior fellow for US foreign policy at Middle East Institute, who moderated a special panel discussion on Monday to examine the poll findings, said the prominence of the Palestinian issue in this election showed there was still a role for the US to play in the region.

“Within the political discussion we’re having in this country, it does imply that there’s actually a strong interest in the US engaging more deeply in the Middle East — just doing it in the right way,” said Katulis.

“There’s a serious difference over who and which candidate is the right way. But for those who’ve said that we should just pull back from the region, restrain ourselves, there’s some who say that, but I think there’s a general impulse here that we need to actually delve more deeply into trying to solve — or not solve, but engage — these questions in a proper way in the region itself, but then politically here at home.”

Asked to place six key issues in order of priority, 26 percent of Arab Americans polled by YouGov said the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is their chief concern. The economy and the cost of living were not far behind, representing the chief concerns for 19 percent of respondents.

“The highest priority, in terms of issues that Arab Americans face, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict came at 26 percent — the highest — then followed by the economy and cost of living,” Lara Barazi, a freelance data consultant and former research director at YouGov, told the MEI panel.

Palestine appeared to be of most concern to Arab Americans in lower income brackets: 37 percent of those earning under $40,000, falling to 22 percent among those paid $80,000 or more.

“These are their issues that kind of mirror what’s going on right now in the US, not only for Arab Americans, when we look at income,” said Barazi.




If Harris does beat Trump to the presidency, it remains unclear whether she will shift the Democratic Party’s stance on Israel. (AFP/File)

“The highest priority goes to the Palestinian conflict. It’s 41 percent of the lowest earners who support the Palestinian-Israeli conflict versus the highest earners. Basically, they’re interested in the economy, cost of living and the Palestinian conflict, but they do put a lot of weight on the economy and cost of living.”

What was also interesting about the findings was how much of a priority the Middle East conflict was for respondents identifying as Republican, Democrat and independent.

“We see that the highest (ranking) for the Palestinian-Israeli conflict comes from independents and the lowest comes from Republicans,” said Barazi. “Only 17 percent of Republicans said that the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is a top priority for us, while cost of living comes the highest for Republicans.”

Despite Trump being perceived as more supportive of the Israeli government than Harris, many Arab Americans indicated in the poll that they would still vote for him, which suggested they are penalizing the Democrats over the Biden administration’s perceived failure to rein in Israel.

Asked which candidate they were most likely to vote for, 45 percent said Trump while 43 percent opted for Harris, although this gap could easily be narrowed — or slightly widened — by the survey’s 5.93 percent margin of error.

The slightly higher support for Trump than for Harris comes despite the fact that 40 percent of those polled described themselves as Democrats, 28 percent as Republicans and 23 percent as independents.

The findings were somewhat puzzling, especially as Trump has announced his intention to expand his 2017 travel ban on people from seven majority-Muslim countries (Iran, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria and Yemen) and has said if elected he would bar Palestinian refugees from entering the US, policies that few Arab Americans would support.

Nevertheless, it appears Biden’s record on the Middle East over the past year has been the deciding factor for many.

Also taking part in Monday’s MEI panel discussion, Yasmeen Abu Taleb, a White House reporter at The Washington Post, said the Democrats never expected the issue of Palestine to hang over the campaign in the way that it has.




Despite Trump being perceived as more supportive of the Israeli government than Harris, many Arab Americans indicated in the poll that they would still vote for him. (AFP/File)


“We’ve never seen the issue of Palestine be this big of a political issue for this long,” she said. “I think in the Biden administration, there was a sense that people would be really angry and protest for a month or two. They hoped the war would be over by January.

“They were always wildly optimistic that this was not going to hang over them as an election issue. And here we are, more than a year later, and it’s still a key driver of the election. I think that’s an important signal of how much the politics have shifted on this.

“I don’t think we’ve seen this in US politics, where the debate has been this intense and sustained.”

If Harris does beat Trump to the presidency, it remains unclear whether she will shift the Democratic Party’s stance on Israel or if the policy of the Biden administration, of which she is part, will remain broadly unchanged.

“Obviously it depends on who wins but I do think if you saw a Harris presidency, it’s not going to be the dramatic change that people are pushing for,” said Abu Taleb. “But I do think there are signs that the Democratic Party is shifting on Israel, and in subtle but important ways.”

Although the Arab News-YouGov poll focused on Arab American opinion, the panel discussion naturally expanded to the prevailing attitudes among the Arab populations and leaderships in the Middle East. Tarek Ali Ahmad, head of research and studies at Arab News, said that many in the Middle East are holding their breath.

“People are essentially just waiting for the election day to come,” he added. “That’s when everyone’s going to be like, OK, now we can finally stop this election game, campaigning, and we can actually get to solid, concrete policy that will affect what’s going to happen, whether or not we’re going to see an actual end to the conflict, or we’re going to see even further.

“We haven’t heard anything in terms of preference to whichever candidate comes through. But at the same time, we cannot dismiss the fact that any incoming president will have a lot to clean up with regards to everything that’s happening on the ground.”




“So there’s so many different aspects that come to shift public opinion on the ground with regards to who’s going to be president,” Ali Ahmad said. (AFP/File)

On whether or not the Arab world has any preference for the US presidency, Ali Ahmad said many in the region have remained tight-lipped, preferring to wait and see the outcome of this closely fought race.

“There’s a lot of different points of view and there’s no real proper preference for either candidate because of the fact that it’s just such a razor-thin difference,” he said.

“Now you have people on the ground talking about how, essentially, every single event that occurs causes a shift in opinion, from (Israel) entering into Lebanon, from the bombing of Iran, to even Biden’s resignation from the nomination.

“So there’s so many different aspects that come to shift public opinion on the ground with regards to who’s going to be president.”

Reflecting on the significance of the role of the Arab American constituency in the election, Ali Ahmad said many seem to recognize their vote can make a significant difference.

“The reason why there’s a big turnout, as we said, nine out of 10 Americans are set to go vote, is that 80 percent of those who responded found that their vote actually counts and will matter in this year's election,” he said.

“They really feel that they could actually change it and make that difference, whether it is to punish the Democrats or whether it is to actually vote for an independent.”

 


SpaceX's latest Starship test flight ends with another explosion

Updated 6 sec ago
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SpaceX's latest Starship test flight ends with another explosion

Nearly two months after an explosion sent flaming debris raining down on the Turks and Caicos, SpaceX launched another mammoth Starship rocket on Thursday, but lost contact minutes into the test flight as the spacecraft came tumbling down and broke apart.
This time, wreckage from the latest explosion was seen streaming from the skies over Florida. It was not immediately known whether the spacecraft's self-destruct system had kicked in to blow it up.
The 403-foot (123-meter) rocket blasted off from Texas. SpaceX caught the first-stage booster back at the pad with giant mechanical arms, but engines on the spacecraft on top started shutting down as it streaked eastward for what was supposed to be a controlled entry over the Indian Ocean, half a world away. Contact was lost as the spacecraft went into an out-of-control spin.
Starship reached nearly 90 miles (150 kilometers) in altitude before trouble struck and before four mock satellites could be deployed. It was not immediately clear where it came down, but images of flaming debris were captured from Florida, including near Cape Canaveral, and posted online.
The space-skimming flight was supposed to last an hour.
“Unfortunately this happened last time too, so we have some practice at this now,” SpaceX flight commentator Dan Huot said from the launch site.
SpaceX later confirmed that the spacecraft experienced “a rapid unscheduled disassembly" during the ascent engine firing. "Our team immediately began coordination with safety officials to implement pre-planned contingency responses,” the company said in a statement posted online.
Starship didn't make it quite as high or as far as last time.
NASA has booked Starship to land its astronauts on the moon later this decade. SpaceX’s Elon Musk is aiming for Mars with Starship, the world’s biggest and most powerful rocket.
Like last time, Starship had mock satellites to release once the craft reached space on this eighth test flight as a practice for future missions. They resembled SpaceX’s Starlink internet satellites, thousands of which currently orbit Earth, and were meant to fall back down following their brief taste of space.
Starship’s flaps, computers and fuel system were redesigned in preparation for the next big step: returning the spacecraft to the launch site just like the booster.
During the last demo, SpaceX captured the booster at the launch pad, but the spacecraft blew up several minutes later over the Atlantic. No injuries or major damage were reported.
According to an investigation that remains ongoing, leaking fuel triggered a series of fires that shut down the spacecraft’s engines. The on-board self-destruct system kicked in as planned.
SpaceX said it made several improvements to the spacecraft following the accident, and the Federal Aviation Administration recently cleared Starship once more for launch.
Starships soar out of the southernmost tip of Texas near the Mexican border. SpaceX is building another Starship complex at Cape Canaveral, home to the company’s smaller Falcon rockets that ferry astronauts and satellites to orbit.

Trump casts doubt on NATO solidarity, despite it aiding the US after Sept. 11

Updated 11 min 44 sec ago
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Trump casts doubt on NATO solidarity, despite it aiding the US after Sept. 11

  • Trump also suggested that the US might abandon its commitments to the alliance if member countries don’t meet defense spending targets
  • Last year, NATO’s Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said a record 23 of NATO’s 32 member nations had hit the military alliance’s defense spending target

WASHINGTON: President Donald Trump on Thursday expressed uncertainty that NATO would come to the US’s defense if the country were attacked, though the alliance did just that after Sept. 11 — the only time in its history that the defense guarantee has been invoked.
Trump also suggested that the US might abandon its commitments to the alliance if member countries don’t meet defense spending targets, a day after his pick for NATO ambassador assured senators that the administration’s commitment to the military alliance was “ironclad.”
Trump’s comments denigrating NATO, which was formed to counter Soviet aggression during the Cold War, are largely in line with his yearslong criticism of the alliance, which he has accused of not paying its fair share toward the cost of defense. But they come at a time of heightened concern in the Western world over Trump’s cozy relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has long seen NATO as a threat, and as the US president seeks to pressure Ukraine into agreeing to a peace deal with the country that invaded it three years ago.

US President Donald Trump reacts at the Oval Office at the White House in Washington on March 6, 2025. (REUTERS)

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth sent the alliance into upheaval last month when he said in a speech that the US would not participate in any peacekeeping force in Ukraine, which is not a NATO member, and would not defend any country that participated in it if attacked by Russia.
Trump said Thursday in the Oval Office that other countries would not come to the defense of the US — though they have done exactly that, in the only instance that the Article 5 defense guarantee was invoked.
“You know the biggest problem I have with NATO? I really, I mean, I know the guys very well. They’re friends of mine. But if the United States was in trouble, and we called them, we said, ‘We got a problem, France. We got a problem, couple of others I won’t mention. Do you think they’re going to come and protect us?’ They’re supposed to. I’m not so sure.”
Article 5 was invoked after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, leading to NATO’s largest operation in Afghanistan. France’s military participated in the operation.
“We are loyal and faithful allies,” French President Emmanuel Macron responded Thursday, expressing “respect and friendship” toward US leaders.
“I think we’re entitled to expect the same,” he said.
Macron invoked “centuries-old history,” namechecking the Marquis de Lafayette, a 19-year-old French nobleman, who was a major-general in the American Continental Army during the Revolutionary War, and Gen. John Pershing, commander of the American army in France during World War I. Macron added that a few days ago, he met American World War II veterans who landed on Omaha Beach as part of the D-Day invasion of Nazi-occupied France.
France and the US “have always been there for each other,” Macron said.

France's President Emmanuel Macron gestures as he addresses the media during a press conference in Brussels on March 6, 2025, to discuss continued support for Ukraine and European defense. (AFP)

When asked Thursday if it he was making it US policy that the US would not defend NATO countries that don’t meet military spending targets, Trump said, “well, I think it’s common sense, right? If they don’t pay, I’m not going to defend them. No, I’m not going to defend them.”
Trump has suggested since his 2016 presidential campaign that the US under his leadership might not comply with the alliance’s mutual defense guarantees and would only defend countries that met targets to commit 2 percent of their gross domestic products on military spending.
The US is the most powerful nation of the seven-decade alliance, has the largest economy among members and spends more on defense than any other member.
The US was one of 12 nations that formed NATO following World War II to counter the threat posed by the Soviet Union to Western European during the Cold War. Its membership has since grown to 32 countries, and its bedrock mutual defense guarantee, known as Article 5, states that an attack on one member is considered an attack on all.
Trump on Thursday also seemed to suggest the US commitment to NATO might be leveraged in his trade war as he seeks to target what he says are unfair trade policies with other nations, including the European Union.
“I view NATO as potentially good, but you’ve got to get, you’ve got to get some good thinking in NATO. It’s very unfair, what’s been happening,” Trump said. “Until I came along, we were paying close to 100 percent of NATO. So think of it, we’re paying 100 percent of their military, and they’re screwing us on trade.”
On Wednesday, Trump’s choice for NATO ambassador, Matt Whitaker, said at his confirmation hearing that in regards to the US commitment to the NATO alliance and specifically Article 5, “It will be ironclad.”
Last year, NATO’s Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said a record 23 of NATO’s 32 member nations had hit the military alliance’s defense spending target.
Trump has taken credit for countries meeting those targets because of his threats, and Stoltenberg himself has said Trump was responsible for getting other nations to increase their spending.
 


Hegseth dismisses as “garbage” critique of US stance on Russia

Updated 07 March 2025
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Hegseth dismisses as “garbage” critique of US stance on Russia

WASHINGTON: US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Thursday dismissed as “garbage” accusations that Washington had taken a pro-Russia stance, saying President Donald Trump was pursuing a peaceful end to Russia’s three-year-old invasion of Ukraine.
Trump has piled pressure on Ukraine, pausing all US military and intelligence assistance to Kyiv, as his administration pushes for a negotiated solution to the biggest conflict in Europe since World War Two.
Trump and his advisers, including Hegseth, have also declined to brand Russia as the aggressor.
“The press is interested in narratives. Our president is interested in peace. So we will get characterized one way or another: ‘Oh, your stance is pro-Russia or pro-’ ... it’s all garbage,” Hegseth told reporters.
“The President got elected to bring peace in this conflict, and he is working with both sides in a way that only President Trump can ... to bring them to the table to end the killing.”
Hegseth spoke alongside British Defense Secretary John Healey, who aimed to discuss a peace plan for Ukraine during a meeting at the Pentagon on Thursday.
“It’s the detail of those discussions which are rightly behind the scenes that the defense secretary and I will now pursue this afternoon,” Healey said.
Over the weekend, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov praised Trump’s “common sense” aim to end the war, while accusing European powers which have rallied around Kyiv of seeking to prolong the conflict.
Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had acrimonious talks at the White House on February 28 but since then the two sides have resumed work on a revenue-sharing minerals deal.
At his speech to a joint session of Congress on Tuesday, Trump said he had received a letter from Zelensky in which the Ukrainian leader said he was “ready to come to the negotiating table as soon as possible.”
Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, said on Thursday he is in discussions with Ukraine for a peace agreement framework to end hostilities with Russia and that a meeting is planned next week with the Ukrainians in Saudi Arabia.
“We’re now in discussions to coordinate a meeting with the Ukrainians,” Witkoff told reporters at the White House. He said it would likely be in Riyadh or Jeddah.


EU leaders commit to working together after Trump signals that Europe must defend itself

Updated 07 March 2025
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EU leaders commit to working together after Trump signals that Europe must defend itself

  • “Europe faces a clear and present danger, and therefore Europe has to be able to protect itself, to defend itself,” said European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen
  • Pledge underscores sea change in geopolitics spurred on by Trump, who has undermined 80 years of cooperation

BRUSSELS: European Union leaders on Thursday committed to working together to bolster the continent’s defenses and to free up hundreds of billions of euros for security after US President Donald Trump’s repeated warnings that he would cut them adrift to face the threat of Russia alone.
With the growing conviction that they will now have to fend for themselves, countries that have faltered on defense spending for decades held emergency talks in Brussels to explore new ways to beef up their security and ensure future protection for Ukraine.
“Today history is being written,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told reporters after the summit ended.
She said the 27 EU leaders are “determined to ensure Europe’s security and to act with the scale, the speed and the resolve that this situation demands. We are determined to invest more, to invest better and to invest faster together.”
The pledge underscored a sea change in geopolitics spurred on by Trump, who has undermined 80 years of cooperation based on the understanding that the US would help protect European nations following World War II.
The leaders signed off on a move to loosen budget restrictions so that willing EU countries can increase their military spending. They also urged the European Commission to seek new ways “to facilitate significant defense spending” in all member states, a statement said.
The EU’s executive branch estimates that around 650 billion euros ($702 billion) could be freed up that way.
The leaders also took note of a commission offer of loans worth 150 billion euros ($162 billion) to buy new military equipment and invited EU headquarters staff “to examine this proposal as a matter of urgency.”
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, a staunch supporter of Trump and considered to be Russian President Vladimir Putin’s closest ally in Europe, refused to endorse part of the summit statement in favor of Ukraine.
But the 26 other EU leaders approved the bloc’s stance that there can be no negotiations on Ukraine without Ukraine and that the Europeans must be involved in any talks involving their security. The Europeans have so far been sidelined in the US-led negotiations with Russia.

In other developments, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said talks between Ukraine and the US on ending the war will take place in Saudi Arabia next week. In his nightly address, Zelensky said he would travel to Saudi Arabia on Monday to meet the country’s crown prince, and his team would stay on to hold talks with US officials.
In recent weeks, Trump has overturned old certainties about the reliability of the US as a security partner as he embraces Russia, withdraws American support for Ukraine and upends the tradition of cooperation with Europe that has been the bedrock of Western security for generations.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, whose country holds the EU’s rotating presidency, said that three years of war in Ukraine and a shift in attitudes in Washington “pose entirely new challenges for us, and Europe must take up this challenge ... and it must win.”
“We will arm ourselves faster, smarter and more efficiently than Russia,” Tusk said.
Spending plans win early support
Zelensky welcomed the plan to loosen budget rules and expressed hopes that some of the new spending could be used to strengthen Ukraine’s own defense industry, which can produce weapons more cheaply than elsewhere in Europe and closer to the battlefields where they are needed.
“We are very thankful that we are not alone, and these are not just words. We feel it. It’s very important,” Zelensky said, looking far more relaxed among Europe’s leaders in Brussels than almost a week ago when he received a verbal lashing from Trump in Washington.
Friedrich Merz, the likely next chancellor of Germany, and summit chairman Antonio Costa discussed ways to fortify Europe’s defenses on a short deadline. Merz pushed plans this week to loosen his nation’s rules on running up debt to allow for higher defense spending.

 

Others too appeared ready to do more.
“Spend, spend, spend on defense and deterrence. That’s the most important message,” Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen told reporters.
The call is a sharp departure from decades of decline in military spending in Europe, where defense often ranked low in many budgetary considerations after the Cold War.
In an address to his country Wednesday evening, French President Emmanuel Macron said the bloc would “take decisive steps.”
“Member states will be able to increase their military spending,” he said, noting that “massive joint funding will be provided to buy and produce some of the most innovative munitions, tanks, weapons and equipment in Europe.”
Macron conferred with his EU counterparts about the possibility of using France’s nuclear deterrent to protect the continent from Russian threats.
Helping EU countries find more money
The short-term benefits of the budget plan offered by von der Leyen were not obvious. Most of the increased defense spending would have to come from national budgets at a time when many countries are already overburdened with debt.
Part of the proposal includes measures to ensure struggling member states will not be punished for going too deep into the red if additional spending is earmarked for defense.
“Europe faces a clear and present danger, and therefore Europe has to be able to protect itself, to defend itself,” she said.

 

France is struggling to reduce an excessive annual budget deficit of 5 percent of GDP, after running up its total debt burden to 112 percent of GDP with spending on relief for businesses and consumers during the COVID-19 pandemic and the energy crisis that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Five other countries using the euro currency have debt levels over 100 percent of GDP: Belgium, Greece, Spain, Italy and Portugal.
Europe’s largest economy, Germany, has more room to borrow, with a debt level of 62 percent of GDP.
Pressing security needs in Ukraine
Part of any security plan would be to help Ukraine defend itself from Russian attacks such as the one that hit Zelensky’s hometown overnight.
A Russian missile killed four people staying at a hotel in Kryvyi Rih, in central Ukraine, shortly after volunteers from a humanitarian organization moved in. The volunteers included Ukrainian, American and British nationals, but it wasn’t clear whether those people were among the 31 who were wounded.
Early this week, Trump ordered a pause in US military supplies being sent to Ukraine as he sought to press Zelensky to engage in negotiations to end the war with Russia. The move brought fresh urgency to Thursday’s summit.
But the meeting in Brussels did not address Ukraine’s most pressing needs. It was not aimed at drumming up more arms and ammunition to fill any supply vacuum created by the US freeze. Nor will all nations agree to unblock the estimated 183 billion euros ($196 billion) in frozen Russian assets held in a Belgian clearing house, a pot of ready cash that could be seized.


Macron tells Trump France is ‘loyal and steadfast ally’ in NATO

Updated 07 March 2025
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Macron tells Trump France is ‘loyal and steadfast ally’ in NATO

BRUSSELS: French President Emmanuel Macron on Thursday said France was a “loyal and steadfast ally” in NATO after US leader Donald Trump questioned whether alliance members would come to the United States’ defense.
“We have always been there for each other,” Macron told reporters in Brussels after a meeting of EU leaders to discuss European defense. He said France had shown “respect and friendship” to the United States, and “we are entitled to ask for the same thing.”