Arab Americans’ vote will matter in this election, Middle East Institute panel hears

Tarek Ali Ahmad - Why Arab Americans’ vote really matters in this year’s election
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Updated 29 October 2024
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Arab Americans’ vote will matter in this election, Middle East Institute panel hears

LONDON: Just days before Americans head to the polls to decide who will be the next US president, Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris find themselves neck and neck in the race for the White House. With the contest balanced on a razor’s edge, any minor development at this point could be enough to decisively swing the vote.

Although they make up just 1 percent of the total electorate, Arab Americans represent a significant constituency in several swing states, where even a handful of votes could influence the election outcome. As such, neither of the main candidates can afford to take their votes for granted.

That is why Arab News teamed up with polling agency YouGov to survey the attitudes of Arab Americans across all geographies, age ranges, genders and income brackets to see which way the community was leaning, and what issues mattered to them most.

What became abundantly clear from the survey was that Arab Americans are not a monolith motivated by any single issue. Domestic matters, such as the economy and the cost of living, loomed large, while border security and abortion rights were also key considerations.

However, it was the plight of the Palestinians that emerged as the biggest issue for Arab Americans of all generations; namely the ongoing Israeli offensive against Hamas in Gaza and the perceived failure of President Joe Biden’s administration to rein in Israel.




Asked which candidate they were most likely to vote for, 45 percent said Trump while 43 percent opted for Harris. (AFP/File)

Brian Katulis, a senior fellow for US foreign policy at Middle East Institute, who moderated a special panel discussion on Monday to examine the poll findings, said the prominence of the Palestinian issue in this election showed there was still a role for the US to play in the region.

“Within the political discussion we’re having in this country, it does imply that there’s actually a strong interest in the US engaging more deeply in the Middle East — just doing it in the right way,” said Katulis.

“There’s a serious difference over who and which candidate is the right way. But for those who’ve said that we should just pull back from the region, restrain ourselves, there’s some who say that, but I think there’s a general impulse here that we need to actually delve more deeply into trying to solve — or not solve, but engage — these questions in a proper way in the region itself, but then politically here at home.”

Asked to place six key issues in order of priority, 26 percent of Arab Americans polled by YouGov said the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is their chief concern. The economy and the cost of living were not far behind, representing the chief concerns for 19 percent of respondents.

“The highest priority, in terms of issues that Arab Americans face, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict came at 26 percent — the highest — then followed by the economy and cost of living,” Lara Barazi, a freelance data consultant and former research director at YouGov, told the MEI panel.

Palestine appeared to be of most concern to Arab Americans in lower income brackets: 37 percent of those earning under $40,000, falling to 22 percent among those paid $80,000 or more.

“These are their issues that kind of mirror what’s going on right now in the US, not only for Arab Americans, when we look at income,” said Barazi.




If Harris does beat Trump to the presidency, it remains unclear whether she will shift the Democratic Party’s stance on Israel. (AFP/File)

“The highest priority goes to the Palestinian conflict. It’s 41 percent of the lowest earners who support the Palestinian-Israeli conflict versus the highest earners. Basically, they’re interested in the economy, cost of living and the Palestinian conflict, but they do put a lot of weight on the economy and cost of living.”

What was also interesting about the findings was how much of a priority the Middle East conflict was for respondents identifying as Republican, Democrat and independent.

“We see that the highest (ranking) for the Palestinian-Israeli conflict comes from independents and the lowest comes from Republicans,” said Barazi. “Only 17 percent of Republicans said that the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is a top priority for us, while cost of living comes the highest for Republicans.”

Despite Trump being perceived as more supportive of the Israeli government than Harris, many Arab Americans indicated in the poll that they would still vote for him, which suggested they are penalizing the Democrats over the Biden administration’s perceived failure to rein in Israel.

Asked which candidate they were most likely to vote for, 45 percent said Trump while 43 percent opted for Harris, although this gap could easily be narrowed — or slightly widened — by the survey’s 5.93 percent margin of error.

The slightly higher support for Trump than for Harris comes despite the fact that 40 percent of those polled described themselves as Democrats, 28 percent as Republicans and 23 percent as independents.

The findings were somewhat puzzling, especially as Trump has announced his intention to expand his 2017 travel ban on people from seven majority-Muslim countries (Iran, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria and Yemen) and has said if elected he would bar Palestinian refugees from entering the US, policies that few Arab Americans would support.

Nevertheless, it appears Biden’s record on the Middle East over the past year has been the deciding factor for many.

Also taking part in Monday’s MEI panel discussion, Yasmeen Abu Taleb, a White House reporter at The Washington Post, said the Democrats never expected the issue of Palestine to hang over the campaign in the way that it has.




Despite Trump being perceived as more supportive of the Israeli government than Harris, many Arab Americans indicated in the poll that they would still vote for him. (AFP/File)


“We’ve never seen the issue of Palestine be this big of a political issue for this long,” she said. “I think in the Biden administration, there was a sense that people would be really angry and protest for a month or two. They hoped the war would be over by January.

“They were always wildly optimistic that this was not going to hang over them as an election issue. And here we are, more than a year later, and it’s still a key driver of the election. I think that’s an important signal of how much the politics have shifted on this.

“I don’t think we’ve seen this in US politics, where the debate has been this intense and sustained.”

If Harris does beat Trump to the presidency, it remains unclear whether she will shift the Democratic Party’s stance on Israel or if the policy of the Biden administration, of which she is part, will remain broadly unchanged.

“Obviously it depends on who wins but I do think if you saw a Harris presidency, it’s not going to be the dramatic change that people are pushing for,” said Abu Taleb. “But I do think there are signs that the Democratic Party is shifting on Israel, and in subtle but important ways.”

Although the Arab News-YouGov poll focused on Arab American opinion, the panel discussion naturally expanded to the prevailing attitudes among the Arab populations and leaderships in the Middle East. Tarek Ali Ahmad, head of research and studies at Arab News, said that many in the Middle East are holding their breath.

“People are essentially just waiting for the election day to come,” he added. “That’s when everyone’s going to be like, OK, now we can finally stop this election game, campaigning, and we can actually get to solid, concrete policy that will affect what’s going to happen, whether or not we’re going to see an actual end to the conflict, or we’re going to see even further.

“We haven’t heard anything in terms of preference to whichever candidate comes through. But at the same time, we cannot dismiss the fact that any incoming president will have a lot to clean up with regards to everything that’s happening on the ground.”




“So there’s so many different aspects that come to shift public opinion on the ground with regards to who’s going to be president,” Ali Ahmad said. (AFP/File)

On whether or not the Arab world has any preference for the US presidency, Ali Ahmad said many in the region have remained tight-lipped, preferring to wait and see the outcome of this closely fought race.

“There’s a lot of different points of view and there’s no real proper preference for either candidate because of the fact that it’s just such a razor-thin difference,” he said.

“Now you have people on the ground talking about how, essentially, every single event that occurs causes a shift in opinion, from (Israel) entering into Lebanon, from the bombing of Iran, to even Biden’s resignation from the nomination.

“So there’s so many different aspects that come to shift public opinion on the ground with regards to who’s going to be president.”

Reflecting on the significance of the role of the Arab American constituency in the election, Ali Ahmad said many seem to recognize their vote can make a significant difference.

“The reason why there’s a big turnout, as we said, nine out of 10 Americans are set to go vote, is that 80 percent of those who responded found that their vote actually counts and will matter in this year's election,” he said.

“They really feel that they could actually change it and make that difference, whether it is to punish the Democrats or whether it is to actually vote for an independent.”

 


Trump threatens Russia with tariffs if war on Ukraine isn’t resolved within 50 days

President Donald Trump speaks during the White House Faith Office luncheon in the State Dining Room, Monday, July 14, 2025. (AP)
Updated 4 sec ago
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Trump threatens Russia with tariffs if war on Ukraine isn’t resolved within 50 days

  • “We’re going to be doing very severe tariffs if we don’t have a deal in 50 days,” the Republican president said
  • He said they would be “secondary tariffs,” meaning they would target Russia’s trading partners in an effort to isolate Moscow in global economy

WASHINGTON: President Donald Trump said Monday he would punish Russia with tariffs if there isn’t a deal to end the war in Ukraine within 50 days, the latest example of his growing frustration with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Trump made the announcement during an Oval Office meeting with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte.
“We’re going to be doing very severe tariffs if we don’t have a deal in 50 days,” the Republican president said. He said they would be “secondary tariffs,” meaning they would target Russia’s trading partners in an effort to isolate Moscow in the global economy. “I use trade for a lot of things,” Trump added. “But it’s great for settling wars.” Besides the tariff threat, Trump and Rutte discussed a rejuvenated pipeline for US weapons. European allies plan to buy military equipment and then transfer them to Ukraine. Trump said there would be “billions and billions” of dollars purchased.
Rutte said Germany, Finland, Canada, Norway, Sweden, the United Kingdom and Denmark would be among the buyers to supply Ukraine. He said “speed is of the essence here,” and he said the shipments should make Putin “reconsider” peace negotiations.
Trump exasperated with Putin
Trump has long boasted of his friendly relationship with Putin, and after taking office in January repeatedly said that Russia was more willing than Ukraine to reach a peace deal. At the same time, Trump accused Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky of prolonging the war and called him a “dictator without elections.”
But Russia’s relentless onslaught against civilian areas of Ukraine wore down Trump’s patience. In April, Trump urged Putin to “STOP!” launching deadly barrages on Kyiv, and the following month said in a social media post that the Russian leader “has gone absolutely CRAZY!” as the bombardments continued.
“It just keeps going on and on and on,” Trump said on Monday. “Every night, people are dying.”
Meanwhile, Trump’s special envoy to Ukraine and Russia, retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, met with Zelensky in Kyiv on Monday.
Zelensky said he had “a productive conversation” with Kellogg about strengthening Ukrainian air defenses, joint arms production and purchasing US weapons in conjunction with European countries, as well as the possibility of tighter international sanctions on the Kremlin.
“We hope for the leadership of the United States, because it is clear that Moscow will not stop unless its ... ambitions are stopped by force,” Zelensky said on Telegram.
Talks on sending Patriot missiles
Russia has pounded Ukrainian cities, including the capital, Kyiv, with hundreds of drones and cruise and ballistic missiles that Ukraine’s air defenses are struggling to counter. June brought the highest monthly civilian casualties of the past three years, with 232 people killed and 1,343 wounded, the UN human rights mission in Ukraine said. Russia launched 10 times more drones and missiles in June than in the same month last year, it said.
At the same time, Russia’s bigger army is making a new effort to drive back Ukrainian defenders on parts of the 1,000-kilometer (620-mile) front line.
Trump confirmed the US is sending Ukraine more badly needed Patriot air defense missiles and that the European Union will pay the US for the “various pieces of very sophisticated” weaponry.
While the EU is not allowed under its treaties to buy weapons, individual EU member countries can and are, just as NATO member countries are buying and sending weapons.
Germany has offered to finance two Patriot systems, government spokesperson Stefan Kornelius said Monday in Berlin. As far as other European countries financing more systems is concerned, that would have to be seen in talks, he said.
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius was traveling to Washington on Monday to meet with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.
Germany has already given three of its own Patriot systems to Ukraine, and Pistorius was quoted as saying in an interview with the Financial Times that it now has only six.
’Weapons flowing at a record level’
A top ally of Trump, Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, said Sunday that the conflict is nearing an inflection point as Trump shows growing interest in helping Ukraine fight back against Russia’s full-scale invasion. It’s a cause that Trump had previously dismissed as being a waste of US taxpayer money.
“In the coming days, you’ll see weapons flowing at a record level to help Ukraine defend themselves,” Graham said on CBS’ “Face the Nation.” He added: “One of the biggest miscalculations Putin has made is to play Trump. And you just watch, in the coming days and weeks, there’s going to be a massive effort to get Putin to the table.”
Kirill Dmitriev, Putin’s envoy for international investment who took part in talks with US officials in Saudi Arabia in February, dismissed what he said were efforts to drive a wedge between Moscow and Washington.
“Constructive dialogue between Russia and the United States is more effective than doomed-to-fail attempts at pressure,” Dmitriev said in a post on Telegram. “This dialogue will continue, despite titanic efforts to disrupt it by all possible means.”


Four confirmed dead in small plane crash at London regional airport

A plume of black smoke rises from an area near the runway after a small plane crash.
Updated 14 July 2025
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Four confirmed dead in small plane crash at London regional airport

  • Video footage had shown a 12-meter (39-feet) plane in flames with a plume of black smoke at Southend-on-Sea

LONDON: Four people were killed when a small plane crashed at a London regional airport at the weekend, UK police said on Monday.
The plane went down around 4:00 p.m. (1500 GMT) on Sunday, shortly after departing London Southend airport in southeast England for the Netherlands.
“Sadly, we can now confirm that all four people on board died,” Essex Police chief superintendent Morgan Cronin told reporters.
“We are working to officially confirm their identities. At this stage, we believe all four are foreign nationals,” he added.
Cronin said the force was interviewing dozens of witnesses, and detectives and forensic teams were working to “build an accurate picture of what happened.”
He added that the airport “will remain closed until further notice.”
Video footage had shown a 12-meter (39-feet) plane in flames with a plume of black smoke at Southend-on-Sea.
Police evacuated a nearby golf club and rugby club as a precaution.
According to the BBC, the plane was a Beechcraft B200.
Southend-on-Sea is about 65 kilometers (40 miles) east of the capital, and its airport is the sixth largest in the London area.


Japanese FM offers support for Palestine in talk with Salameh

Japanese Foreign Minister IWAYA Takeshi met with Estephan Anton Salameh, Minister of Planning and International Cooperation.
Updated 14 July 2025
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Japanese FM offers support for Palestine in talk with Salameh

  • Iwaya reiterates Japan’s support for a two-state solution for Palestine and its commitment to assisting Palestinian state-building efforts

TOKYO: Japanese Foreign Minister IWAYA Takeshi met with Estephan Anton Salameh, Minister of Planning and International Cooperation of Palestine, at CEAPAD IV and expressed his hope that the conference would contribute to promoting CEAPAD’s objectives of expanding assistance to Palestine.

The Fourth Ministerial Meeting of the Conference on Cooperation among East Asian Countries for Palestinian Development (CEAPAD IV) was held in Kuala Lumpur and Foreign Minister Iwaya reiterated Japan’s support for a two-state solution for Palestine and its commitment to assisting Palestinian state-building efforts.

According to the Foreign Ministry in Tokyo, Minister Salameh expressed his appreciation for Japan’s continued support for Palestine, including through its initiatives such as CEAPAD. He also elaborated on the grave humanitarian situation in Gaza, stating that an immediate ceasefire is essential for advancing Palestinian development.

Iwaya expressed deep concern over the humanitarian situation in Gaza and stated that Japan has been calling for a ceasefire in Gaza as soon as possible.


Nigeria’s former leader Buhari to be buried on Tuesday, official says

Nigeria’s late former President Muhammadu Buhari will be buried in his northern home state of Katsina on Tuesday. (File/AP)
Updated 14 July 2025
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Nigeria’s former leader Buhari to be buried on Tuesday, official says

LAGOS: Nigeria’s late former President Muhammadu Buhari, who died in a London clinic on Sunday aged 82, will be buried in his northern home state of Katsina on Tuesday, the state governor said.
Buhari, a former military ruler after a coup in the 1980s, returned to frontline politics to become the first Nigerian president to oust an incumbent through the ballot box in 2015. He was re-elected for a second term four years later.
Nigeria’s Vice President Kashim Shettima and government officials were in London on Monday to organize the repatriation of the former president’s remains.
Katsina state governor Dikko Umaru Radda said after consultation with Buhari’s family it was agreed the body would arrive in Nigeria on Tuesday for burial the same day in his home town of Daura.
Among those who paid tribute to Buhari was Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who posted on X platform that “his wisdom, warmth and unwavering commitment to India–Nigeria friendship stood out.”
Buhari earned a devoted following for his brand of anti-corruption conviction politics, especially in Nigeria’s largely Muslim north.
He referred to himself as a “converted democrat” and swapped his military uniform for kaftans and prayer caps.
Ibrahim Babangida, another former military ruler who toppled Buhari in a coup in 1985, said he knew Buhari as a deeply spiritual and humble man.
“We may not have agreed on everything — as brothers often don’t — but I never once doubted his sincerity or his patriotism,” Babangida said in a statement.
After leaving office in 2023, Buhari spent most of his time in Daura, away from the public eye.
His successor Bola Tinubu inherited a country grappling with double digit inflation, foreign exchange shortages, economic hardship, low oil production and insecurity that had spread to most parts of Nigeria.
Buhari’s supporters, however, viewed him as Nigeria’s conscience because he had a reputation for shunning the corruption and ostentatious lifestyles often associated with the country’s political elites.
To his critics, Buhari was “an absentee landlord — a leader who governed by delegation, who disappeared for long stretches (often to London for medical treatment), and whose aloofness felt like abandonment,” the local BusinessDay newspaper said.


111 monsoon-related deaths in Pakistan since late June: disaster agency

A man along with a child carrying umbrellas walks along a street during monsoon rains in Islamabad on July 14, 2025. (AFP)
Updated 14 July 2025
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111 monsoon-related deaths in Pakistan since late June: disaster agency

  • Data from the national disaster agency between June 26 and July 14 showed that electrocution was the leading cause of fatalities, followed by flash floods

ISLAMABAD: Monsoon rains in Pakistan have been linked to more than 110 deaths including dozens of children since they arrived in late June, according to government figures released Monday.
Data from the national disaster agency between June 26 and July 14 showed that electrocution was the leading cause of fatalities, followed by flash floods.
In late June, at least 13 tourists were swept to their deaths while sheltering from flash floods on a raised river bank.
In its latest report, the disaster agency said 111 people including 53 children have been killed, with the highest number of deaths in the most populous province of Punjab.
Meanwhile, the national meteorological service has issued a warning for further heavy rainfall in the northern and eastern regions of the country, with the potential for urban flooding, landslides, and infrastructure damage due to strong winds.
Monsoon season brings South Asia 70 to 80 percent of its annual rainfall, arriving in early June in India and late June in Pakistan, and lasting through until September.
The annual rains are vital for agriculture and food security, and the livelihoods of millions of farmers.
But it brings with it flooding, landslides and causes buildings to collapse.
South Asia is getting hotter and in recent years has seen shifting weather patterns, but scientists are unclear on how exactly a warming planet is affecting the highly complex monsoon.
Pakistan is one of the world’s most vulnerable countries to the effects of climate change, and its 240 million residents are facing extreme weather events with increasing frequency.
In 2022, unprecedented monsoon floods submerged a third of Pakistan and killed 1,700 people, with some areas yet to recover from the damage.
In May, at least 32 people were killed in severe storms, including strong hailstorms.