The US election and its impact on a diplomatically wounded Pakistan
https://arab.news/9n9kw
US elections coming up next week on November 5 are going to be consequential for Pakistan and the region at large. Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are neck to neck in a nail-biting election race with an uncertain outcome. One is a former President and the other a serving Vice President and a chance nominee following President Biden’s decision to opt out of the contest. The elections are likely to be decided by the swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona and Minnesota.
The Pakistani expat community and Muslims in general seem to have announced their support for Donald Trump, who is seen as a ‘no war’ President, and whose credentials have been the subject of intense scrutiny by the courts and the media. Despite Trump’s position on the immigration issue, it is notable that Pakistani expats seem to have opted not to vote for Harris according to media reports.
Kamala Harris, it is expected, would be a continuation of the Biden years in office with no major change. Most European and NATO allies of the US would prefer Kamala over Trump, who is considered a ‘wild card’ and promises a fundamental transformation of US policies. Trump’s slogan of making America ‘great again’ is doing the rounds and could signify a reorientation of the US from a leadership role to rebuilding its own society in accordance with Christian, white, civil values with foreign policy taking a back seat. Such a transformation would suggest that the US may look deeper inside. This at a time when the world order has started to drift may trigger a deepening of the fragmentation process.
If Trump were to be voted in, perhaps the US could move from its position of indifference toward Pakistan.
Salman Bashir
Ever since the US withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, Pakistan has tried hard to reestablish its relevance to the US, albeit unsuccessfully. By ignoring Imran Khan and his successors, the Biden administration has made sure Pakistan gets the message that their country is nowhere close to their strategic priorities. The only thing that the US has done is to make clear that they are not interested in Pakistan and have not moved an inch on internal happenings in this country. The State Department spokesperson has avoided any substantive comments to pointed questions on human rights violations in Pakistan. This despite a concerted and relentless campaign by the Pakistani diaspora and letters and statements by Congressional leaders.
It is therefore understandable that Pakistanis in general and the leadership in particular are interested in the outcome of the US elections. If Trump were to be voted in, perhaps the US could move from its position of indifference toward Pakistan. There is speculation about efforts to stall such a scenario by offering Pakistan’s support to the US vis a vis India, China, Afghanistan and Iran.
The government has given some indications of reviving trade with India and to eventually move toward a pre-2019 position. On Afghanistan, the government is already on the same page with the US as far as counter terrorism is concerned. On Iran, Pakistan’s position would matter a lot given the situation in Gaza and Lebanon. Anti-Israel and pro-Palestinian demonstrations are not being allowed. On China, the position is not yet clear but there is a visible dwarfing of Chinese interests in Pakistan especially after recent militant attacks against Chinese civilians.
All told, Pakistan lays great store by its relations with the US and efforts to win back Washington’s trust will no doubt continue. Most essentially however, its chances of success will depend on regaining its economic solvency, creating political stability and establishing its regional relevance once more.
- Salman Bashir is a Pakistani diplomat who served as Foreign Secretary of Pakistan and as High Commissioner of Pakistan to India.
