Pakistan central bank set to deliver fourth consecutive rate cut to revive economy
All 15 investors and analysts surveyed by Reuters expect the central bank to cut rates next week
Policymakers continue efforts to revive a fragile economy as inflation eases off recent record highs
Updated 01 November 2024
Reuters
KARACHI: Pakistan’s central bank is expected to cut its key interest rate further at its policy meeting on Monday, with policymakers continuing their efforts to revive a fragile economy as inflation eases off recent record highs.
The central bank, the State Bank of Pakistan, has slashed the benchmark policy rate to 17.5% from an all time-high of 22% in three consecutive policy meetings since June, having last reduced it by 200 basis points in September.
All 15 investors and analysts surveyed by Reuters expect the central bank to cut rates next week. Two expect a 150 bps cut, twelve predict a 200 bps reduction, and one forecasts a 250 bps cut.
Economic activity has stabilized since last summer when the country came close to a default before an eleventh hour bailout by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The IMF, which in September gave a boost to Pakistan’s struggling economy by approving a long-awaited $7 billion facility, said that the South Asian nation had taken key steps to restore economic stability with consistent policy implementation under the 2023-24 standby arrangement.
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While the economy has started to gradually recover, and inflation has moved sharply down from a multi-decade high of nearly 40% in May 2023, analysts say further rate cuts are needed to bolster growth.
Mustafa Pasha, Chief Investment Officer at Lakson Investments, said rates must drop under 15% and hold below that for six months to have a material impact.
The IMF in its latest October report forecast Pakistan’s gross domestic product growth at 3.2% for the fiscal year ending June 2025, up from 2.4% in fiscal 2024.
The government expects annual inflation to have come in at 6-7% last month and slow further to 5.5-6.5% in November.
However, inflation could pick up again in 2025, driven by electricity and gas tariff hikes under the new $7 billion IMF bailout, and the potential impact of taxes on the retail and wholesale sector proposed in the June budget.
Ahmad Mobeen, senior economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said that while lower rates will offer some relief to the manufacturing sector, the benefits may be limited due to “elevated input costs, driven by high electricity and gas tariffs, combined with global supply and shipping constraints.”
The survey responses on Monday’s policy rate decision are listed below:
Saudi banks’ credit card loans surge 14%, reach a record high of $8.07bn
Updated 14 min 58 sec ago
Dayan Abou Tine
RIYADH: Credit card loans by Saudi banks hit a record high of SR30.27 billion ($8.07 billion) in the third quarter of 2024, according to recent data.
Figures by the Saudi Central Bank, also known as SAMA, showed that this marked a 14.24 percent rise compared to the same period last year.
Consumer loans, excluding real estate financing, finance leasing, and margin lending, reached SR462.29 billion, reflecting a 4.01 percent increase.
Among these, education lending experienced the highest growth, rising by 16 percent to SR8.24 billion.
Loans for vehicles and private transportation constituted the largest share within the sectors identified by SAMA, accounting for 3 percent of the total at SR11.93 billion.
Notably, the majority – 91 percent – of consumer loans were categorized as “Others.”
Consumer loans, which encompass a wide range of borrowing options, are typically characterized by fixed repayment schedules and lower interest rates.
These loans are often used for significant expenditures, including purchasing vehicles, or funding education, and they tend to represent a substantial portion of an individual’s overall debt.
In contrast, credit card loans are revolving facilities that allow users to borrow up to a predetermined limit, repayable at varying interest rates based on usage.
While this form of lending is currently significantly lower than consumer loans, their rapid growth can be attributed to several key factors.
Firstly, the increasing digitization of banking services has made them more accessible, especially to younger consumers who prefer online transactions and instant credit options.
This demographic shift is driving demand for flexible payment solutions.
Secondly, the rise in consumer spending, fueled by government initiatives aimed at boosting the economy and diversifying financial offerings, has encouraged consumers to rely more on credit cards for everyday purchases.
Additionally, attractive promotions, such as cashback rewards and loyalty points, have made credit cards an appealing choice for many, incentivizing usage and increasing borrowing.
Moreover, the growth of e-commerce has further propelled credit card adoption, as consumers seek convenient payment methods for online transactions.
While these loans may currently represent a smaller portion of overall consumer debt, their rapid growth reflects changing consumer preferences and economic trends in Saudi Arabia, highlighting the importance of adapting financial products to meet evolving needs in a dynamic marketplace.
This trend aligns with the Kingdom’s Vision 2030 initiative, which aims to foster a cashless economy and enhance the financial landscape through digital transformation.
Data from SAMA indicated that by the end of September, the number of ATMs in Saudi Arabia decreased by 604 year-over-year, totaling 15,448. In contrast, the number of issued cards rose by 3.6 million, reaching 49.95 million.
This shift illustrates how the payment dynamics in the Kingdom are evolving, as the decline in ATMs reflects a diminishing reliance on physical cash, while the surge in card issuance highlights an increasing demand for contactless payment options.
Saudi Arabia has reached 98 percent adoption rate for contactless payments in in-person transactions, a significant rise from just 4 percent in 2017, according to Andrew Torre, Visa’s regional president.
Speaking to Arab News on the sidelines of a forum ahead of the Future Investment Initiative event in Riyadh, Torre attributed this transformation to government support, increasing consumer demand, and Visa’s technological initiatives, aligning with the goals of Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 to enhance digital commerce.
Torre noted that the transition to contactless payments, including mobile taps, has occurred rapidly and is among the fastest globally.
Saudi Arabia’s fintech-friendly regulatory environment, spearheaded by the Saudi Central Bank, has been crucial in facilitating digital evolution.
SAMA’s early adoption of a fintech sandbox has allowed for innovation in financial services. Additionally, e-commerce in the region has surged, growing at an annual rate of 30 percent, partly due to the pandemic’s push towards online shopping.
As digital payment adoption grows, it empowers small businesses with secure transaction options.
According to a study by GlobalData, the annual value of card transactions in Saudi Arabia’s cards and payments market is projected to reach $146.8 billion in 2024. The market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of over 6 percent from 2024 to 2028.
Startup Wrap – Saudi VCs pour capital into ventures through strategic investments
Updated 53 min 44 sec ago
Nour El-Shaeri
RIYADH: Saudi venture capital firms are fueling regional innovation through substantial investments and new initiatives.
Aramco Ventures led New York-based industrial internet-of-things monitoring and communications startup Andium’s $21.7 million series B funding round.
Existing backers, including Climate Investment, Intrepid Financial Partners, and individual investors such as former Citadel Chief Investment Officer Thomas Miglis, also participated. The investment brings Andium’s total funding to over $40 million, following its $15 million series A round in 2021.
The newly secured funds will enable Andium to accelerate its global expansion, scale operations in oil and gas regions in the US and the Middle East, reduce technology costs, and bolster its research and development initiatives.
Wa’ed Ventures allocates $100m for early-stage AI investments
Saudi Aramco’s $500-million financial capital arm Wa’ed Ventures has earmarked $100 million for early-stage artificial intelligence investments. This initiative is part of efforts to position Saudi Arabia as a global leader in the technology, aligning with the Kingdom’s strategic development goals.
The deployment of the fund will be overseen by an advisory board comprising experts from prominent global institutions such as Meta, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Oxford University, and Amazon.
A report by PwC projects that artificial intelligence could contribute $135 billion to Saudi Arabia’s economy by 2030, amounting to 12 percent of the country’s gross domestic product.
Wa’ed Ventures has recently invested in Korea’s Rebellions and US-based AiXplain as part of its investment strategy.
Beta Lab launches with $300m to foster deeptech innovation
Beta Lab launched at FII8 in Riyadh. X/@BetalabSA
Saudi Arabia’s new deeptech venture studio, Beta Lab, launched with $300 million in capital at the Future Investment Initiative.
The outfit aims to bolster startups and promote cross-border innovation between the Middle East and Southeast Asia.
This strategic initiative is backed by the Saudi Ministry of Investment, the Research, Development, and Innovation Authority, the Hong Kong Science and Technology Parks Corporation, and MDI Ventures by Telkom Indonesia.
Beta Lab is expected to catalyze growth in the deep tech sector through significant investments and collaborative partnerships.
Tharawat Green Exchange secures $450k for sustainability initiatives
Saudi Arabia-based Web3 provider Tharawat Green Exchange has raised $450,000 from Adaverse, a fund dedicated to Web3 and blockchain investments.
Founded in 2023 by Yakeen Al-Zaki, Hassan Al-Redha, and Yasser Al-Obaidan, Tharawat Green Exchange focuses on leveraging blockchain technology for environmental sustainability, aligning with Saudi Vision 2030.
The capital will support infrastructure and blockchain development, enhance sales and marketing, and help secure Vera certification for Tharawat Green Exchange’s carbon credits.
BIM Capital established to boost Middle East investment
BIM Ventures and SBI Holding announced the establishment of BIM Capital during the FII8 conference in Riyadh. Supplied
Saudi-based BIM Ventures and Japan’s SBI Holding have launched BIM Capital, a joint venture to stimulate investment opportunities in Saudi Arabia and the wider Middle East.
The new organization will focus on private equity, venture capital, debt funds, and real estate investments.
With a target of drawing more than $200 million in foreign direct investment, BIM Capital aims to manage assets worth over $2 billion.
The joint venture seeks to leverage both firms’ expertise to accelerate regional growth and innovation.
ARKTECH raises $1m in pre-seed funding
Saudi proptech company ARKTECH has successfully closed a $1 million pre-seed investment round, led by Core Vision Investment.
Established in 2023 by Waheed Al-Jassas, ARKTECH specializes in utility contract trading to enhance real estate investment returns.
The funding will strengthen the company’s leadership in the property technology sector and support the development of new tech-enabled investment solutions.
Nabt secures $1.5m seed round for B2B marketplace
Saudi foodtech startup Nabt has raised $1.5 million in a seed funding round led by Merak Capital, with additional backing from angel investors.
Launched in 2022 by Abdullah Al-Otaibi, Nabt runs a business-to-business marketplace that directly connects farmers with businesses.
The funding will be used to accelerate product development and expand Nabt’s market presence.
The company is part of the Sunbolah FoodTech Accelerator, an initiative by Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Environment, Water, and Agriculture to promote innovation in the agricultural sector.
ISSF invests $5m in Rua Growth Fund
ISSF CEO Mohammed Al Muhtaseb, and Turki Aljoaib, managing partner of Rua Growth Fund. ISSF
Jordan’s Innovative Startups and Small and Medium Enterprises Fund has invested $5 million in Rua Growth I LP, a $45-million Saudi Arabia-based venture capital fund focused on early-stage investments in e-commerce, financial technology, enterprise solutions, and software as a service.
This investment aims to leverage Jordan’s robust startup ecosystem and foster innovation, enhancing the competitive edge of local startups in regional markets.
Tadarab expands into Saudi Arabia amid rising demand
Kuwait-based education technology platform Tadarab has expanded operations into Saudi Arabia as part of its strategy to address the growing need for online education solutions in the region.
Founded in 2016 by Zaid Al-Luhaib and Salma Al-Yassin, Tadarab offers courses that support personal and professional development across the Middle East and North Africa region.
The expansion aims to tailor Tadarab’s educational solutions to meet the diverse demands of Saudi learners, benefiting both individuals and corporate clients.
Pass secures $2.7m to expand into Egypt and Saudi Arabia
Qatar-based delivery service app Pass has raised $2.7 million in a pre-series A funding round from undisclosed investors.
Initially launched by the UK’s Peyk in 2020 and later acquired by local entrepreneur Bashar Jaber in 2023, the newly acquired funding will support Pass’s expansion into Egypt and Saudi Arabia and facilitate the development of new products to enhance its market position.
Colis.ma closes $300k pre-seed funding
Morocco’s logistics startup Colis.ma has secured $300,000 in pre-seed funding from Witamax.
Founded in 2022 by Issam Darui, Colis.ma focuses on cross-border logistics services for individuals and small and medium-sized enterprises, aiming to bridge African and European markets.
The funds will be used to strengthen Colis.ma’s operations in Morocco’s five largest regions and expand into six major European countries, with plans for further growth into West Africa.
Pargo expands into Egypt with $4m funding
South African e-commerce logistics startup Pargo has entered the Egyptian market after raising $4 million from 3Capital Ventures, Endeavor, SAAD Investment Holdings, and UW Ventures.
Launched in 2014 by Derk Hoekert and Lars Veul, Pargo provides innovative delivery solutions tailored for the e-commerce sector.
The expansion includes the rollout of collection and return service points across Egypt to support e-commerce growth.
Pakistan October CPI up 7.2% y/y, statistics bureau says
The reading reinforced a month of easing inflation which hit a historic high of 38% last year
The central bank is expected to cut its key interest rate further at its meeting on Monday
Updated 36 min 28 sec ago
Reuters
KARACHI: Pakistan’s annual consumer price index inflation rate was 7.2% in October, the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics said on Friday, up from 6.9% the preceding month.
The reading reinforced a month of easing inflation — which hit a historic high of 38% last year, and was at 26.8% October 2023 — ahead of a meeting of the country’s central bank next week to review the policy rate, which stands at 17.5%.
A Reuters poll showed the central bank is expected to cut its key interest rate further at the meeting on Monday, with policymakers continuing their efforts to revive a fragile economy as inflation eases.
The October reading was up 1.2% month on month, the statistics bureau said, adding that the fiscal year’s average inflation, from July to October, stands at 8.7%, which is below the 9.5% projected by the International Monetary Fund.
ISLAMABAD: Wafi Energy Holding has become the majority shareholder of Shell Pakistan after Shell Petroleum Co., a subsidiary of global Shell plc, completed the sale of its 77.42 percent interest in SPL, a statement from the group said on Thursday.
Wafi Energy, an established Saudi company and an affiliate of the Asyad Group, now holds approximately 87.78 percent of the total issued share capital of SPL. The Shell brand will remain in Pakistan through retail and brand licensing agreements, with SPL as the exclusive brand licensee.
“Wafi Energy is excited to announce its entry into Pakistan by acquiring majority ownership of Shell Pakistan Limited. This marks a significant milestone in the Asyad Group’s commitment to expanding its presence in Pakistan and the region,” Ghassan Amoudi, CEO of Asyad Holding Group and incoming chairperson of SPL, said.
“As the exclusive Shell Licensee, we are delighted that the Shell brand remains in Pakistan. This continuation builds on a strong legacy, supported by a team of highly skilled professionals who ensure customers have access to Shell’s premium fuel and lubricant offerings, all delivered with the highest safety and security standards.”
Waqar Siddiqui, the CEO and managing director of Shell Pakistan Limited, said the company would continue to build a “sustainable energy future for Pakistan,” combining Wafi Energy’s commitment to growth and investment and Shell’s strong legacy of innovation and trust in the country.
“This new chapter offers Shell Pakistan Limited the opportunity to build upon this strong foundation, ensuring the continued delivery of quality products to their valued customers,” Siddiqui added.
SPL is one of the oldest multinationals in Pakistan with a network of 600+ sites, countrywide storage facilities and a broad portfolio of global lubricant brands.
Shell has endeavored to support Pakistan’s developmental priorities, from developing and distributing energy by land, air and sea, to providing petroleum products for the construction of mega projects like the Mangla Dam and Kotri Barrage, expanding the country’s growing road infrastructure, to powering the first flights of Pakistan International Airlines, and supporting the next generation of innovative entrepreneurs in Pakistan.
Oil Updates – crude gains more than $1/bbl on reports Iran preparing strike on Israel
Iran prepares strike on Israel from Iraq — Axios report
Focus on US elections, China NPC meeting next week
Updated 01 November 2024
Reuters
SINGAPORE: Oil prices extended gains on Friday, climbing more than $1 a barrel to pare weekly losses, as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East rose following reports that Iran was preparing a retaliatory strike on Israel from Iraq in the coming days.
Brent crude futures, which have rolled to the January contract, climbed $1.41, or 2 percent, to $74.22 a barrel by 7:56 a.m. Saudi time.
US West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose $1.46, or 2.1 percent, to $70.72 a barrel after settling up 0.95 percent in the previous session.
Israeli intelligence suggests Iran is preparing to attack Israel from Iraqi territory in the coming days, possibly before the US presidential election on Nov. 5, Axios reported on Thursday, citing two unidentified Israeli sources.
The attack is expected to be carried out from Iraq using a large number of drones and ballistic missiles, the Axios report added.
Oil prices were also supported by expectations that OPEC+ could delay December’s planned increase to oil production by a month or more, four sources close to the matter told Reuters on Wednesday, citing concern about soft oil demand and rising supply. A decision to delay the increase could come as early as next week, two of the sources said.
However, prices are set to fall more than 1 percent for the week, struggling to recover from a 6 percent loss on Monday after Israel’s strike against Iran’s military on Oct. 26 bypassed oil and nuclear facilities and did not disrupt energy supplies.
“Despite the crude oil market looking to lock in a third straight day of gains, it has been unable to completely erase the large gap lower that followed Monday’s re-open,” said IG market analyst Tony Sycamore based in Sydney.
However, WTI’s rebound should extend back toward where it closed last Friday at about $71.80, he added, as tensions in the Middle East returned to focus.
“After that, though, all bets are off. I think it will depend on who wins the US election and what fiscal stimulus details, if any, come from the NPC standing committee meeting,” Sycamore said, referring to major events in the US and China, world’s largest oil consumers, next week.
In China, manufacturing activity swung back to growth in October, a private-sector survey showed on Friday, echoing an official survey on Thursday that showed manufacturing activity expanded in October for the first time in six months. Both surveys suggest stimulus measures are having an effect.
US gasoline stockpiles fell unexpectedly last week to a two-year low on strengthened demand, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday, while crude inventories also posted a surprise drawdown as imports slipped.
The world’s largest oil producer pumped a monthly record high of 13.4 million barrels per day in August, EIA said.
