The American thread

This is the mother of all battles. It is more important than the football World Cup final, boxing title fights and Taylor Swift tours. A few American swing states will determine the fate of the world for the next four years. They will determine security and the economy, as well as the fate of countries that are in disarray and millions of refugees and displaced people. The ballot boxes will determine the identity of who will hold the American thread that stretches across borders and continents.

There is no need to issue a reminder that the master of the White House is the master of the world’s top economy and the most advanced military machine in history. He is the master of fleets that move oceans and seas. The thread reassures, deters, threatens and attacks. It defends the interests and the image and thwarts some adventures and supports others.

American elections are not purely American, as their outcomes are important to allies and enemies alike — all nations across the global village. No one can ignore the results or pretend to be indifferent.

The powerful figures of the world are eagerly awaiting the result, and so are the weak people of the world. The result will determine their fates and agendas. The master of the Kremlin is a powerful man. He knows the results of elections even before the polls open. He has fun in threatening the Europeans and the world with a nuclear attack should they think of defeating, besieging or humiliating Russia.

But Vladimir Putin knows that the end of the war in Ukraine needs the signature of the American president, not Volodymyr Zelensky. Putin knows the reach of the American thread. If it were not for it, he would have already unleashed his might in reclaiming all former Soviet territories.

Putin is not concerned with the residents of the Elysee Palace, 10 Downing Street or Germany’s Federal Chancellery. He will be worried about the American thread if it chooses to corner his country with economic sanctions and pump more weapons and aid to Ukraine. He is concerned with a painful truth. Had he not threatened to use nuclear weapons, NATO forces could have advanced and defeated the Red Army on which he had spent a fortune rebuilding.

Another man will stay up late to find out the results of the American election. Xi Jinping sits on Mao Zedong’s throne at the head of the world’s second most-powerful economy. He knows that he is struggling against the American thread in world markets and Taiwan. He knows that, were it not for that thread, he would have achieved what his ancestors could not: restoring Taiwan to China. He knows that if Donald Trump wins the race and decides to impose harsh tariffs on Chinese goods, then the repercussions will be felt in the markets and the entire global economy.

Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te will also be staying up late to learn the result of the American election. He has a tiring and painful job. He watches the older brother’s ships and planes sail and fly by as a reminder of his sibling’s power to strangle his rebellious island were it not for the American thread. Zelensky’s fate does not give him cause to be optimistic.

The people of the Middle East will in turn stay up late to await the outcome of the election. The American thread is still decisive in reining in their wars or organizing them. The Iranian supreme leader and Revolutionary Guards commanders will also stay up in anticipation of the result. Israel has gone too far in striking Iran’s proxies and “advisers” and has lured it into a ring it has long sought to avoid.

The satellites are spies that do not rest. They reveal that the Israeli strike on Iran was indeed painful and embarrassing. The supreme leader gave the signal for a retaliation. Will the Iranian response wait for the outcome of the US election, precede it or take place as it is being announced? What if the man who ordered Qassem Soleimani’s killing returns to the White House? Is this week’s deployment of American B-52 bombers to the region just a message of deterrence or is there more to it?

On this day in 1979, student revolutionaries loyal to Ayatollah Khomeini stormed the US Embassy in Tehran and took its staff hostage. The ball of fire burned President Jimmy Carter and the hostages were released only after Ronald Reagan took office.

The raid was aimed at cutting the American thread inside Iran. From the very beginning, the Iranian revolution believed that the thread was the wall that was preventing it from becoming a major regional power, especially after the US took it upon itself to take down the Iraqi wall that was preventing the flow of the revolution in the region. For decades, Iran sought to cut or weaken the American thread. Here it is today being confronted with it yet again, this time in the shape of Israel’s retaliatory strikes.

Benjamin Netanyahu will keenly await the result of the American election. The thread that ties the US to Israel is not under threat. Israel’s American pillow is firm, but Kamala Harris has her approach and calculations and Trump has his surprises. Netanyahu will need several billion dollars and ammunition if he decides to forge ahead much further in his coup against equations in the region.

It does not matter if you love America or hate it. It offers protection and hands out guarantees and solutions.

Ghassan Charbel

The leaders of the Middle East will all await the result of the American election. They want to see what the limits are of the Israeli-Iranian duel, the roles in the region and the Israeli war on Gaza and Lebanon. They can possibly bank on the American thread to push forward the dream of an independent Palestinian state and achieve it to prevent more wars from erupting in the future.

Lebanon will await the results of the election. Experience has shown that the American envoy alone can stop the Israeli fire. Amos Hochstein’s decision to not make a stop in Lebanon after his last trip to Israel was very costly. Israel wiped more Lebanese villages off the map and replicated the images of destruction from Gaza in Lebanon.

Talking about America’s demise does not eliminate it. It is the world’s most powerful economy and boasts its most powerful navy. It does not matter if you love it or hate it. It offers protection and hands out guarantees and solutions. Russia is busy with the Ukrainian banquet. China is too far in the distance. Antonio Guterres is semi-retired. There is no choice but to improve conditions related to the American thread to stop the wars and destruction and the waves of funerals and displaced people.

• Ghassan Charbel is editor-in-chief of Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper. X: @GhasanCharbel This article first appeared in Asharq Al-Awsat.