Trump wants the presidential winner to be declared on election night. Why that’s unlikely

Election personnel process ballots at the San Francisco City Hall voting center on the final day of early voting ahead of Election Day, on November 4, 2024 in San Francisco, California. (Getty Images/AFP)
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Updated 05 November 2024
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Trump wants the presidential winner to be declared on election night. Why that’s unlikely

Former President Donald Trump is stepping up his demands that the winner of the presidential race be declared shortly after polls close Tuesday, well before all the votes are counted.
Trump set the pattern in 2020, when he declared that he had won during the early morning hours after Election Day. That led his allies to demand that officials “stop the count!” He and many other conservatives have spent the past four years falsely claiming that fraud cost him that election and bemoaning how long it takes to count ballots in the US
But one of many reasons we are unlikely to know the winner quickly on election night is that Republican lawmakers in two key swing states have refused to change laws that delay the count. Another is that most indications are this will be a very close election, and it takes longer to determine who won close elections than blowouts.
In the end, election experts note, the priority in vote-counting is to make sure it’s an accurate and secure tally, not to end the suspense moments after polls close.
“There’s nothing nefarious about it,” said Rick Hasen, a law professor at the University of California, Los Angeles. “The time delay is to protect the integrity of the process.”
Trump’s demand also doesn’t seem to account for the six time zones from the East Coast to Hawaii.
David Becker, an elections expert and co-author of “The Big Truth,” debunking Trump’s 2020 election lies, said it’s not realistic for election officials in thousands of jurisdictions to “instantly snap their fingers and count 160 million multi-page ballots with dozens of races on them.”
Trump wants the race decided Tuesday night
During a Sunday rally in Pennsylvania, Trump demanded that the race be decided soon after some polls begin closing.
“They have to be decided by 9 o’clock, 10 o’clock, 11 o’clock on Tuesday night,” Trump said. “Bunch of crooked people. These are crooked people.”
It was not clear who he was targeting with the “crooked people” remark.
Timing is one example of why Trump’s demands don’t match the reality of conducting elections in the US By 11 p.m. Eastern time, polls will just be closing in the two Western swing states of Arizona and Nevada.
Trump has led conservatives to bemoan that the US doesn’t count elections as swiftly as France or Argentina, where results for recent races have been announced within hours of polls closing. But that’s because those countries tabulate only a single election at a time. The decentralized US system prevents the federal government from controlling elections.
Instead, votes are counted in nearly 10,000 separate jurisdictions, each of which has its own races for the state legislature, city council, school boards and ballot measures to tabulate at the same time. That’s why it takes longer for the US to count votes.
Declaring a winner can take time
The Associated Press calls races when there is no possibility that the trailing candidate can make up the gap. Sometimes, if one candidate is significantly behind, a winner can be called quickly. But if the margin is narrow, then every last vote could matter. It takes a while before every vote is counted even in the most efficient jurisdictions in the country.
In 2018, for example, Republican Rick Scott won the US Senate race in Florida, a state conservatives regularly praise for its quick tally. But the AP didn’t call Scott’s victory until after the conclusion of a recount on Nov. 20 because Scott’s margin was so slim.
It also takes time to count every one of the millions of votes because election officials have to process disputed, or “provisional,” ballots, and to see if they were legitimately cast. Overseas ballots from military members or other US citizens abroad can trickle in at the last minute. Mail ballots usually land early, but there’s a lengthy process to make sure they’re not cast fraudulently. If that process doesn’t start before Election Day, it can back up the count.
Some states, such as Arizona, also give voters whose mail ballots were rejected because the signatures didn’t match up to five days to prove they actually cast the ballot. That means final numbers simply cannot be available Tuesday night.
Election rules are to blame in some states
Some of the sluggishness is due to state-specific election rules. In Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, two of the most important swing states, election officials for years have pleaded with Republican lawmakers to change the law that prevents them from processing their mail ballots before Election Day. That means mail ballots get tallied late, and frequently the results don’t start to get reported until after Election Day.
Democrats have traditionally dominated mail voting, which has made it seem like Republicans are in the lead until the early hours of the next morning, when Democratic mail votes finally get added to the tally. Experts even have names for this from past elections — the “red mirage” or the “blue shift.” Trump exploited that dynamic in 2020 when he had his supporters demand an abrupt end to vote counts — the ballots that remained untallied were largely mail ones that were for Joe Biden. It’s not clear how that will play out this year, since Republicans have shifted and voted in big numbers during early voting.
Michigan used to have similar restrictions, but after Democrats won control of the state Legislature in 2022 they removed the prohibition on early processing of mail ballots. That state’s Democratic Secretary of State, Jocelyn Benson, said she hopes to have most results available by Wednesday.
“At the end of the day, chief election officials are the folks who have the ability to provide those accurate results. Americans should focus on what they say and not what any specific candidate or folks who are part of the campaign say,” said Jen Easterly, director of the US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency.
Trump allies urge him to declare victory swiftly
Some of Trump’s allies say he should be even more aggressive about declaring victory this time around.
Longtime Trump ally Steve Bannon, who in 2020 predicted the then-president would declare victory before the race was called, advocated for a similar strategy during a recent press conference after he was released from federal prison, where he was serving time for a contempt of Congress conviction related to the investigation into Trump’s effort to overturn his loss in 2020.
“President Trump came up at 2:30 in the morning and talked,” Bannon said. “He should have done it at 11 o’clock in 2020.”
Other Trump supporters have taken a darker tone. His former national security adviser, Michael Flynn, suggested during a recent interview on the right-wing American Truth Project podcast that violence could erupt in states still counting ballots the day after Election Day because people “are just not going to put up with it.”
Trying to project a sense of inevitability about a Trump win, the former president and his supporters have been touting early vote data and favorable polls to contend the election is all but over. Republicans have returned to voting early after largely staying away at Trump’s direction in 2020 and 2022. In some swing states that track party registration, registered Republicans are outvoting Democrats in early voting.
But that doesn’t mean Republicans are ahead in any meaningful sense. Early voting data does not tell you who will win an election because it only records who voted, not how they voted.
Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign has been explicitly targeting Republicans disillusioned by Trump. In each of those states where more Republicans have voted, there also are huge numbers of voters casting early ballots who are not registered with either of the two major political parties. If Harris won just a tiny fraction more of those votes than Trump, it would erase the small leads Republicans have.
There’s only one way to find out who won the presidential election: Wait until enough votes are tallied, whenever that is.


Pontiff slams ‘invader arrogance’ in ‘Palestine’ and Ukraine

Pope Francis leads mass for the World Youth Day at St Peter's basilica in The Vatican, on November 24, 2024. (AFP)
Updated 25 November 2024
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Pontiff slams ‘invader arrogance’ in ‘Palestine’ and Ukraine

CATICAN CITY: Pope Francis on Monday railed against the conflicts in Ukraine and the Palestinian territories, where he said “the arrogance of the invader prevails over dialogue.”
The 87-year-old’s words, to diplomats at the Vatican, came just days after he called for an investigation into claims Israel was conducting “genocide” of Palestinians in Gaza.
Marking 40 years of a peace deal between Chile and his native Argentina, Francis recalled ongoing conflicts and criticized the arms trade, highlighting “the hypocrisy of speaking about peace and playing at war.”
“This hypocrisy always leads us to failure,” he said in Spanish, adding that “dialogue must be the soul of the international community.”
“I simply mention two failures of humanity today: Ukraine and Palestine, where there is suffering, where the arrogance of the invader prevails over dialogue,” he added in an unscripted remark.
Francis, who took over as head of the worldwide Catholic Church in 2013, regularly prays for the people of Gaza and the “martyred” Ukraine, which Russia invaded in 2022.
Francis has also frequently called for the return of the Israeli hostages taken by Palestinian militants Hamas during the unprecedented Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel.
In extracts published this month of a forthcoming book, he called for claims that Israel was conducting “genocide” in Gaza — claims strongly rejected by Israel — to be “studied carefully.”
The Hamas attack resulted in the deaths of 1,206 people, mostly civilians, according to a tally of Israeli official figures.
Israel’s retaliatory campaign in Gaza has killed at least 44,235 people, most of them civilians, according to data from the Hamas-run territory’s health ministry, which the UN considers reliable.
The Vatican recognized the Palestinian territories as a sovereign state in 2013, signing a treaty in 2015.

 


Philippine president to make first visit to UAE

Updated 25 November 2024
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Philippine president to make first visit to UAE

  • Marcos’ trip marks ‘significant and symbolic milestone,’ Manila envoy says
  • Philippines, UAE to sign new agreements on energy transition, artificial intelligence

Manila: Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is set to meet his Emirati counterpart, Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan, in Abu Dhabi on Tuesday as he makes his inaugural trip to the Gulf nation.

The Philippines and UAE are celebrating 50 years of diplomatic relations this year, with the two countries eyeing closer cooperation across many fields to mark the occasion, including in energy transition and artificial intelligence.

The working visit will be Marcos’s first to the UAE since he took office in 2022.

“The president will personally oversee the overall state of bilateral relations between the Philippines and the UAE, and witness the signing of several agreements across a wide array of areas of cooperation, such as energy transition, artificial Intelligence, judicial agreements and culture,” Philippine Ambassador to the UAE Alfonso A. Ver told Arab News on Monday.

The one-day trip marks a “significant and symbolic milestone” in bilateral ties, he added.

“⁠Bilateral relations between the two countries have reached a historic high, and have since expanded to new and innovative forms of cooperation,” Ver said, citing collaborations in space science, agriculture and digital infrastructure as examples.

“With President Marcos’s visit, the Philippines is keen to further boost the positive, robust, and comprehensive state and trajectory of our relationship with the UAE.”

The two countries are currently negotiating a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement, which has made “significant progress” as of early October, according to the Philippine Department of Trade and Industry.

Around one million Philippine nationals reside in the UAE, making it the second-largest employer of Filipino expats after Saudi Arabia.

“The president will also convey the gratitude of the Philippine government to the leaders of a nation that has tapped Filipino talent, allowing it to flourish in an environment that fosters kindness, respect, and tolerance,” the Presidential Communications Office said in a statement.

“It is expected that these productive dialogues will lead to agreements that will deepen the ties between the two countries … While the President’s visit will be short, the goodwill and opportunities it will create will be substantial, resulting in stronger Philippine-UAE relations.”


UK would follow ‘due process’ if Netanyahu were to visit, says foreign minister

Updated 25 November 2024
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UK would follow ‘due process’ if Netanyahu were to visit, says foreign minister

  • The ICC issued the warrants on Thursday against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu

FIUGGI: Britain would follow due process if Benjamin Netanyahu visited the UK, foreign minister David Lammy said on Monday, when asked if London would fulfil the International Criminal Court’s arrest warrant against the Israeli prime minister.
“We are signatories to the Rome Statute, we have always been committed to our obligations under international law and international humanitarian law,” Lammy told reporters at a G7 meeting in Italy.
“Of course, if there were to be such a visit to the UK, there would be a court process and due process would be followed in relation to those issues.”
The ICC issued the warrants on Thursday against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, his former defense minister Yoav Gallant, and Hamas leader Ibrahim Al-Masri for alleged crimes against humanity.
Several EU states have said they will meet their commitments under the statute if needed, but Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has invited Netanyahu to visit his country, assuring him he would face no risks if he did so.
“The states that signed the Rome convention must implement the court’s decision. It’s not optional,” Josep Borrell, the EU’s top diplomat, said during a visit to Cyprus for a workshop of Israeli and Palestinian peace activists.
Those same obligations were also binding on countries aspiring to join the EU, he said.


At least eight migrants drown off Greek island of Samos

Updated 25 November 2024
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At least eight migrants drown off Greek island of Samos

  • Greek coast guard finds bodies of six minors, two women
  • So far 39 people rescued, search and rescue operation continues

Greece’s coast guard has found the bodies of eight migrants — six minors and two women — who drowned off the island of Samos in the Aegean Sea, authorities said on Monday.
Greek police found a further 36 people alive in the northern part of Samos, while three people, trapped in a rocky area on the island, were rescued by coast guard officers, the coast guard said.
Aircraft and vessels assisted a search and rescue operation, it added.
According to a coast guard official, authorities were alerted to the incident by a non-governmental organization and estimate that about 50 people were on board the vessel that brought them off Samos.
Greece, in the southeast corner of the European Union, has long been a favored gateway to Europe for migrants and refugees from the Middle East, Africa and Asia.
More than one million crossed from Turkiye to Greece’s outlying eastern islands in 2015-2016. Many have drowned while attempting the perilous journey on flimsy boats.
The number of arrivals later dropped before surging again last year.
So far this year, about 54,000 migrants have reached Greece, the second largest number in southern Europe behind Italy. The vast majority of them arrived by sea, according to data from the United Nations refugee agency UNHCR.


Le Pen threatens to topple French government over budget

Updated 25 November 2024
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Le Pen threatens to topple French government over budget

  • The opposition on all sides of the spectrum have denounced the budget
  • Marine Le Pen downplayed the consequences of the budget being rejected

PARIS: French far-right figurehead Marine Le Pen on Monday threatened to back a no confidence motion that could topple the government of Prime Minister Michel Barnier in a standoff over the budget, saying after talks both sides were entrenched in their positions.
Months of political tensions since right-winger Barnier became prime minister at the helm of a minority government appointed by President Emmanuel Macron in the wake of this summer’s elections are coming to a head over the budget which has yet to be approved by parliament.
The opposition on all sides of the spectrum have denounced the budget, prompting Barnier to consider brandishing the weapon of article 49.3 of the constitution which allows a government to force through legislation without a vote in parliament.
However, that could prompt Le Pen’s far right National Rally (RN) to team up in an unholy alliance with the left-wing bloc in parliament and find enough numbers to topple the government in a confidence vote.
Le Pen entered the Matignon residence of the French premier for the breakfast meeting and was to be followed later in the afternoon by hard left France Unbowed (LFI) parliamentary party leader Mathilde Panot as Barnier seeks to hear voices across the board.
“My position has not changed. No more, it seems, than that (the position) of the prime minister has changed,” Le Pen after meeting Barnier, describing him as “at the same time courteous but also entrenched in his positions.”
Asked if the RN would back a no confidence motion, she replied: “Of course.”
Le Pen downplayed the consequences of the budget being rejected, saying she did not believe “in this notion that ‘if this budget is rejected, if there is a no confidence motion, it will be dramatic, there will be chaos, etc’.”
Further complicating the situation is the constitutional rule in France that there must be a one year gap between legislative elections, meaning that Macron cannot call polls until the summer to resolve the crisis.
“Michel Barnier is creating the conditions for a vote of no confidence,” RN deputy leader Sebastien Chenu said on Sunday.
But he insisted that the move would not paralyze France and that Macron still had options, including resigning before his term ends in 2027, something the president has previously ruled out.
“The president has several options... reappoint the same prime minister, appoint a new prime minister, resign if he has no other solution, or call a referendum,” he added.
Government spokeswoman Maud Bregeon had warned in an interview published in the Le Parisien daily that France risked a “Greek-style situation” if the government was brought down, referring to Greece’s 2007-2008 financial crisis.
The issue comes at a critical time for three-time presidential candidate Le Pen, who fancies having her best ever crack at the Elysee in polls due in 2027.
Le Pen, 56, and other RN defendants are currently on trial accused of creating fake jobs at the EU parliament which they deny.
If convicted, she could receive a jail sentence and a ban from public office which would disqualify her from the presidential polls.
Her young lieutenant Jordan Bardella, 29, who is the RN party chief, is not among the accused and is seen by some as harboring his own presidential positions.
Baredella, who has just published his first book “Ce que je cherche” (“What I am Looking For”), told French television last week that “not having a criminal record is, for me, rule number one when you want to be an MP.”
While opponents dubbed him “Brutus” after the Roman politician who assassinated ex-ally Julius Ceasar, Le Pen denied any tensions with her protege, saying they had a “relationship of trust.”