Trump wants the presidential winner to be declared on election night. Why that’s unlikely

Election personnel process ballots at the San Francisco City Hall voting center on the final day of early voting ahead of Election Day, on November 4, 2024 in San Francisco, California. (Getty Images/AFP)
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Updated 05 November 2024
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Trump wants the presidential winner to be declared on election night. Why that’s unlikely

Former President Donald Trump is stepping up his demands that the winner of the presidential race be declared shortly after polls close Tuesday, well before all the votes are counted.
Trump set the pattern in 2020, when he declared that he had won during the early morning hours after Election Day. That led his allies to demand that officials “stop the count!” He and many other conservatives have spent the past four years falsely claiming that fraud cost him that election and bemoaning how long it takes to count ballots in the US
But one of many reasons we are unlikely to know the winner quickly on election night is that Republican lawmakers in two key swing states have refused to change laws that delay the count. Another is that most indications are this will be a very close election, and it takes longer to determine who won close elections than blowouts.
In the end, election experts note, the priority in vote-counting is to make sure it’s an accurate and secure tally, not to end the suspense moments after polls close.
“There’s nothing nefarious about it,” said Rick Hasen, a law professor at the University of California, Los Angeles. “The time delay is to protect the integrity of the process.”
Trump’s demand also doesn’t seem to account for the six time zones from the East Coast to Hawaii.
David Becker, an elections expert and co-author of “The Big Truth,” debunking Trump’s 2020 election lies, said it’s not realistic for election officials in thousands of jurisdictions to “instantly snap their fingers and count 160 million multi-page ballots with dozens of races on them.”
Trump wants the race decided Tuesday night
During a Sunday rally in Pennsylvania, Trump demanded that the race be decided soon after some polls begin closing.
“They have to be decided by 9 o’clock, 10 o’clock, 11 o’clock on Tuesday night,” Trump said. “Bunch of crooked people. These are crooked people.”
It was not clear who he was targeting with the “crooked people” remark.
Timing is one example of why Trump’s demands don’t match the reality of conducting elections in the US By 11 p.m. Eastern time, polls will just be closing in the two Western swing states of Arizona and Nevada.
Trump has led conservatives to bemoan that the US doesn’t count elections as swiftly as France or Argentina, where results for recent races have been announced within hours of polls closing. But that’s because those countries tabulate only a single election at a time. The decentralized US system prevents the federal government from controlling elections.
Instead, votes are counted in nearly 10,000 separate jurisdictions, each of which has its own races for the state legislature, city council, school boards and ballot measures to tabulate at the same time. That’s why it takes longer for the US to count votes.
Declaring a winner can take time
The Associated Press calls races when there is no possibility that the trailing candidate can make up the gap. Sometimes, if one candidate is significantly behind, a winner can be called quickly. But if the margin is narrow, then every last vote could matter. It takes a while before every vote is counted even in the most efficient jurisdictions in the country.
In 2018, for example, Republican Rick Scott won the US Senate race in Florida, a state conservatives regularly praise for its quick tally. But the AP didn’t call Scott’s victory until after the conclusion of a recount on Nov. 20 because Scott’s margin was so slim.
It also takes time to count every one of the millions of votes because election officials have to process disputed, or “provisional,” ballots, and to see if they were legitimately cast. Overseas ballots from military members or other US citizens abroad can trickle in at the last minute. Mail ballots usually land early, but there’s a lengthy process to make sure they’re not cast fraudulently. If that process doesn’t start before Election Day, it can back up the count.
Some states, such as Arizona, also give voters whose mail ballots were rejected because the signatures didn’t match up to five days to prove they actually cast the ballot. That means final numbers simply cannot be available Tuesday night.
Election rules are to blame in some states
Some of the sluggishness is due to state-specific election rules. In Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, two of the most important swing states, election officials for years have pleaded with Republican lawmakers to change the law that prevents them from processing their mail ballots before Election Day. That means mail ballots get tallied late, and frequently the results don’t start to get reported until after Election Day.
Democrats have traditionally dominated mail voting, which has made it seem like Republicans are in the lead until the early hours of the next morning, when Democratic mail votes finally get added to the tally. Experts even have names for this from past elections — the “red mirage” or the “blue shift.” Trump exploited that dynamic in 2020 when he had his supporters demand an abrupt end to vote counts — the ballots that remained untallied were largely mail ones that were for Joe Biden. It’s not clear how that will play out this year, since Republicans have shifted and voted in big numbers during early voting.
Michigan used to have similar restrictions, but after Democrats won control of the state Legislature in 2022 they removed the prohibition on early processing of mail ballots. That state’s Democratic Secretary of State, Jocelyn Benson, said she hopes to have most results available by Wednesday.
“At the end of the day, chief election officials are the folks who have the ability to provide those accurate results. Americans should focus on what they say and not what any specific candidate or folks who are part of the campaign say,” said Jen Easterly, director of the US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency.
Trump allies urge him to declare victory swiftly
Some of Trump’s allies say he should be even more aggressive about declaring victory this time around.
Longtime Trump ally Steve Bannon, who in 2020 predicted the then-president would declare victory before the race was called, advocated for a similar strategy during a recent press conference after he was released from federal prison, where he was serving time for a contempt of Congress conviction related to the investigation into Trump’s effort to overturn his loss in 2020.
“President Trump came up at 2:30 in the morning and talked,” Bannon said. “He should have done it at 11 o’clock in 2020.”
Other Trump supporters have taken a darker tone. His former national security adviser, Michael Flynn, suggested during a recent interview on the right-wing American Truth Project podcast that violence could erupt in states still counting ballots the day after Election Day because people “are just not going to put up with it.”
Trying to project a sense of inevitability about a Trump win, the former president and his supporters have been touting early vote data and favorable polls to contend the election is all but over. Republicans have returned to voting early after largely staying away at Trump’s direction in 2020 and 2022. In some swing states that track party registration, registered Republicans are outvoting Democrats in early voting.
But that doesn’t mean Republicans are ahead in any meaningful sense. Early voting data does not tell you who will win an election because it only records who voted, not how they voted.
Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign has been explicitly targeting Republicans disillusioned by Trump. In each of those states where more Republicans have voted, there also are huge numbers of voters casting early ballots who are not registered with either of the two major political parties. If Harris won just a tiny fraction more of those votes than Trump, it would erase the small leads Republicans have.
There’s only one way to find out who won the presidential election: Wait until enough votes are tallied, whenever that is.


Russia security chief meets Taliban officials in Kabul

Updated 26 November 2024
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Russia security chief meets Taliban officials in Kabul

  • Shoigu, the secretary of Russia’s Security Council, met an Afghan cohort in Kabul headed by Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs Abdul Ghani Baradar

KABUL: Top Russian security official Sergei Shoigu visited Afghan government officials on Monday, assuring them Moscow will soon remove the Taliban from its list of banned organizations, Kabul said.
Since the Taliban surged back to power in 2021 visits by foreign officials have been infrequent because no nation has yet formally recognized the government of the former insurgent group.
Taliban government curbs on women have made them pariahs in many Western nations but Kabul is making increasing diplomatic overtures to its regional neighbors, emphasising economic and security cooperation.
Shoigu, the secretary of Russia’s Security Council, met an Afghan cohort in Kabul headed by Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs Abdul Ghani Baradar.
He “expressed Russia’s interest in increasing the level of bilateral cooperation with Afghanistan,” Baradar’s office said in a statement released on social media site X.
“He also announced that, to expand political and economic relations between the two countries, the Islamic Emirate’s name would soon be removed from Russia’s blacklist.”
The Islamic Emirate is the name the Taliban government uses to refer to itself.
Russian news agencies quoted Shoigu as saying he wanted “constructive” ties with Kabul, without saying if he had floated Moscow removing the Taliban from its list of banned groups.
“I confirm the readiness to build a constructive political dialogue between our countries, including in order to give momentum to the process of the internal Afghan settlement,” Shoigu said, according to the RIA Novosti news agency.
He also said Russian companies plan to take part in projects in Afghanistan on extracting natural resources.
Analysts say Moscow may be eying cooperation with Kabul to counter the threat from Islamic State Khorasan (IS-K) — the Afghan-based branch of the Sunni militant group.
In March, more than 140 people were killed when IS-K gunmen attacked a Moscow concert hall.
Taliban authorities have repeatedly said security is their top domestic priority and have pledged militants staging foreign attacks will be ousted from Afghanistan.
“The Taliban certainly are our allies in the fight against terrorism,” Russia’s ambassador to Afghanistan, Dmitry Zhirnov, said in July.
“They are working to eradicate terrorist cells.”


Republican senator blocks promotion of US Army general associated with Afghanistan withdrawal

Updated 26 November 2024
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Republican senator blocks promotion of US Army general associated with Afghanistan withdrawal

  • President-elect Donald Trump and his allies have decried the United States’ military withdrawal from Afghanistan and vowed to go after those responsible for it

WASHINGTON: A Republican senator has blocked the promotion of US Army Lt. Gen. Christopher Donahue, who commanded the military’s 82nd Airborne Division during the US withdrawal from Afghanistan and was the last American soldier to leave the country in 2021.
A US official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the hold had been placed by Senator Markwayne Mullin, who did not respond to a request for comment on why he blocked the promotion.
The Pentagon on Monday said it was aware of the hold on Donahue, who had been nominated for a fourth star by President Joe Biden to lead the US Army in Europe and Africa.
“We are aware that there is a hold on Lt. Gen. Donahue,” Pentagon spokesperson Sabrina Singh told reporters.
President-elect Donald Trump and his allies have decried the United States’ military withdrawal from Afghanistan and vowed to go after those responsible for it. In August, Trump said he would ask for the resignation of every senior official “who touched the Afghanistan calamity.”
“You have to fire people when they do a bad job. We never fire anybody,” Trump has said.
Reuters has reported that Trump’s transition team is drawing up a list of military officers to be fired, in what would be an unprecedented shakeup at the Pentagon.
While the image of Donahue, carrying his rifle down by his side as he boarded the final C-17 transport flight out of Afghanistan on in August 2021, has become synonymous with the chaotic withdrawal, he is seen in the military as one of the most talented Army leaders.
“The finest officer I ever served with, Chris Donahue is a generational leader who is now being held up for political purposes. At the tip of the spear defending this country for over three decades, he is now a political pawn,” Tony Thomas, the former head of US Special Operations Command, posted on X.
Under Senate rules, one lawmaker can hold up nominations even if the other 99 all want them to move quickly.


US prosecutors seek to drop federal criminal cases against Trump

Updated 26 November 2024
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US prosecutors seek to drop federal criminal cases against Trump

  • Policy against prosecuting sitting presidents cited
  • Courts must approve the two dismissal requests

WASHINGTON: US prosecutors moved on Monday to drop the two federal criminal cases against Donald Trump involving his efforts to overturn his 2020 election defeat and his handling of classified documents, citing Justice Department policy against prosecuting a sitting president.
The steps by prosecutors working with Special Counsel Jack Smith in the two cases represent a big legal victory for the Republican president-elect, who won the Nov. 5 US election and is set to return to office on Jan. 20.
The Justice Department policy that the prosecutors cited dates back to the 1970s. It holds that a criminal prosecution of a sitting president would violate the US Constitution by undermining the ability of the country’s chief executive to function. Courts will still have to approve both requests from prosecutors.
The prosecutors in a filing in the election subversion case said the department’s policy requires the case to be dismissed before Trump returns to the White House.
“This outcome is not based on the merits or strength of the case against the defendant,” prosecutors wrote in the filing.
Smith’s office similarly moved to end its attempt to revive the case accusing Trump of illegally retaining classified documents when he left office in 2021 after his first term as president. But the prosecutors signaled they will still ask a federal appeals court to bring back the case against two Trump associates who had been accused of obstructing that investigation.
Trump spokesman Steven Cheung hailed what he called “a major victory for the rule of law.”
Trump had faced criminal charges in four cases — the two brought by Smith and two in state courts in New York and Georgia. He was convicted in the New York case while the Georgia case is in limbo.
In a post on social media, Trump railed on Monday against the legal cases as a “low point in the History of our Country.” The moves by Smith, who was appointed in 2022 by US Attorney General Merrick Garland, represents a remarkable shift from the special prosecutor who obtained indictments against Trump in two separate cases accusing him of crimes that threatened US election integrity and national security. Prosecutors acknowledged that the election of a president who faced ongoing criminal cases created an unprecedented predicament for the Justice Department.
It shows how Trump’s election victory over Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris was not just a political triumph, but also a legal one. Trump pleaded not guilty in August 2023 to four federal charges accusing him of conspiring to obstruct the collection and certification of votes following his 2020 loss to Democrat Joe Biden.
Trump, who as president will again oversee the Justice Department, was expected to order an end to the federal 2020 election case and to Smith’s appeal in the documents case.
Florida-based Judge Aileen Cannon, who Trump appointed to the federal bench, had dismissed the classified documents case in July, ruling that Smith was improperly appointed to his role as special counsel.
Smith’s office had been appealing that ruling and indicated on Monday that the appeal would continue as it relates to Trump personal aide Walt Nauta and Carlos De Oliveira, a manager at his Mar-a-Lago resort, who had been previously charged alongside Trump in the case. Both Nauta and De Oliveria have pleaded not guilty, as did Trump.
In the 2020 election case, Trump’s lawyers had previously said they would seek to dismiss the charges based on a US Supreme Court ruling in July that former presidents have broad immunity from prosecution over official actions taken while in the White House. Smith attempted to salvage the case following that ruling, dropping some allegations but arguing that the rest were not covered by presidential immunity and could proceed to trial.
Judge Tanya Chutkan had been due to decide whether the immunity decision required other portions of the case to be thrown out. A trial date originally set for March 2024 had not been rescheduled.
The case was brought following an investigation led by Smith into Trump’s attempts to retain power following his 2020 election defeat, culminating in the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol by a mob of his supporters following his inflammatory speech near the White House.
Trump denied wrongdoing and argued that the US legal system had been turned against him to damage his presidential campaign. He vowed during the campaign that he would fire Smith if he returned to the presidency.
Trump in May became the first former president to be convicted of a crime when a jury in New York found him guilty of felony charges relating to hush money paid to a porn star before the 2016 election. His sentencing in that case has been indefinitely postponed.
The criminal case against Trump in Georgia state court involving the 2020 election is stalled.


Pontiff slams ‘invader arrogance’ in ‘Palestine’ and Ukraine

Pope Francis leads mass for the World Youth Day at St Peter's basilica in The Vatican, on November 24, 2024. (AFP)
Updated 25 November 2024
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Pontiff slams ‘invader arrogance’ in ‘Palestine’ and Ukraine

CATICAN CITY: Pope Francis on Monday railed against the conflicts in Ukraine and the Palestinian territories, where he said “the arrogance of the invader prevails over dialogue.”
The 87-year-old’s words, to diplomats at the Vatican, came just days after he called for an investigation into claims Israel was conducting “genocide” of Palestinians in Gaza.
Marking 40 years of a peace deal between Chile and his native Argentina, Francis recalled ongoing conflicts and criticized the arms trade, highlighting “the hypocrisy of speaking about peace and playing at war.”
“This hypocrisy always leads us to failure,” he said in Spanish, adding that “dialogue must be the soul of the international community.”
“I simply mention two failures of humanity today: Ukraine and Palestine, where there is suffering, where the arrogance of the invader prevails over dialogue,” he added in an unscripted remark.
Francis, who took over as head of the worldwide Catholic Church in 2013, regularly prays for the people of Gaza and the “martyred” Ukraine, which Russia invaded in 2022.
Francis has also frequently called for the return of the Israeli hostages taken by Palestinian militants Hamas during the unprecedented Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel.
In extracts published this month of a forthcoming book, he called for claims that Israel was conducting “genocide” in Gaza — claims strongly rejected by Israel — to be “studied carefully.”
The Hamas attack resulted in the deaths of 1,206 people, mostly civilians, according to a tally of Israeli official figures.
Israel’s retaliatory campaign in Gaza has killed at least 44,235 people, most of them civilians, according to data from the Hamas-run territory’s health ministry, which the UN considers reliable.
The Vatican recognized the Palestinian territories as a sovereign state in 2013, signing a treaty in 2015.

 


Philippine president to make first visit to UAE

Updated 25 November 2024
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Philippine president to make first visit to UAE

  • Marcos’ trip marks ‘significant and symbolic milestone,’ Manila envoy says
  • Philippines, UAE to sign new agreements on energy transition, artificial intelligence

Manila: Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is set to meet his Emirati counterpart, Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan, in Abu Dhabi on Tuesday as he makes his inaugural trip to the Gulf nation.

The Philippines and UAE are celebrating 50 years of diplomatic relations this year, with the two countries eyeing closer cooperation across many fields to mark the occasion, including in energy transition and artificial intelligence.

The working visit will be Marcos’s first to the UAE since he took office in 2022.

“The president will personally oversee the overall state of bilateral relations between the Philippines and the UAE, and witness the signing of several agreements across a wide array of areas of cooperation, such as energy transition, artificial Intelligence, judicial agreements and culture,” Philippine Ambassador to the UAE Alfonso A. Ver told Arab News on Monday.

The one-day trip marks a “significant and symbolic milestone” in bilateral ties, he added.

“⁠Bilateral relations between the two countries have reached a historic high, and have since expanded to new and innovative forms of cooperation,” Ver said, citing collaborations in space science, agriculture and digital infrastructure as examples.

“With President Marcos’s visit, the Philippines is keen to further boost the positive, robust, and comprehensive state and trajectory of our relationship with the UAE.”

The two countries are currently negotiating a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement, which has made “significant progress” as of early October, according to the Philippine Department of Trade and Industry.

Around one million Philippine nationals reside in the UAE, making it the second-largest employer of Filipino expats after Saudi Arabia.

“The president will also convey the gratitude of the Philippine government to the leaders of a nation that has tapped Filipino talent, allowing it to flourish in an environment that fosters kindness, respect, and tolerance,” the Presidential Communications Office said in a statement.

“It is expected that these productive dialogues will lead to agreements that will deepen the ties between the two countries … While the President’s visit will be short, the goodwill and opportunities it will create will be substantial, resulting in stronger Philippine-UAE relations.”