Why the Middle East will weigh heavily on the new US president’s agenda

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Updated 06 November 2024
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Why the Middle East will weigh heavily on the new US president’s agenda

  • From Iran to Palestine, the incoming US administration will face a slew of daunting policy challenges
  • New leadership will have to balance diplomacy with action if it hopes to prevent further regional escalation

LONDON: America has voted and now the Middle East waits to discover who has won — and, crucially, what that victory will mean for a region with which the US has had a complex relationship ever since President Franklin D. Roosevelt and Saudi Arabia’s King Abdulaziz bin Saud met for historic talks on a US warship in the Suez Canal in 1945.

Whichever way CNN and the other big US channels have called the result of the US presidential election, it could be days, or even weeks, before America’s arcane electoral process reaches its final conclusion and the winner is formally declared.

Although they have ticked the box on their ballot papers alongside their preferred candidate, America’s voters have not actually voted directly for Kamala Harris, Donald Trump or any of the four other runners.

Instead, in proportion to its number of representatives in Congress, each state appoints electors to the Electoral College, the combined membership of which votes for the president and the vice president.

It is rare, but not unknown, for electors to disregard the popular vote. But either way, to become president, a candidate needs the votes of at least 270 of the college’s 538 electors.

Their votes will be counted, and the winner announced, in a joint session of Congress on Jan. 6. The president-elect is then sworn into office on Monday, Jan. 20 — and, as first days at work go, these promise to be intense.




A poll worker waits for voters at a polling station in New York City on Election Day, November 5, 2024. (AFP)

There will be many issues, domestic and foreign, clamoring for the attention of the new president and their team.

But of all the in-trays jostling for attention, it is the one labeled “Middle East” that will weigh most heavily on the Resolute desk in the Oval Office and on the mind of the incoming president.

Depending on how they are handled, the sum of the challenges contained in that in-tray could add up either to an opportunity to achieve something no American president has achieved before, or an invitation to a disastrous, legacy-shredding encounter with some of the world’s most pressing and intractable problems.

Palestine and Israel

In November 2016, then-President-Elect Donald Trump declared: “I would love to be able to be the one that made peace with Israel and the Palestinians.” A lot of “really great people” had told him that “it’s impossible — you can’t do it.”

But he added: “I disagree … I have reason to believe I can do it.”

As recent history attests, he could not do it.

Every US president since Jimmy Carter, who led the Camp David talks that culminated in a peace agreement between Egypt and Israel in 1979, has been drawn inexorably into the maelstrom of Middle East politics — partly through economic and political necessity, but also because of the Nobel-winning allure of going down in history as the greatest peacemaker the world has ever known.




A woman rests with her children as displaced Palestinians flee Beit Lahia in the northern Gaza Strip on November 5, 2024. (AFP)

Not for nothing, however, is the Israel-Palestine issue known in diplomatic circles as “the graveyard of US peacemaking.”

Since Oct. 7, 2023, and Israel’s onslaught on Hamas and other Palestinian militant groups in Gaza and Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon, a crisis long deemed intractable appears to have degenerated even further to a point of no return.

All the talk throughout the election by both of the main candidates, calculated to walk the electoral tightrope between pro-Israel and pro-Palestinian voters, will now be forgotten.

All that matters now is action — careful, considered action, addressing issues including the desperate need for a permanent ceasefire in Gaza and the reopening of the much-cratered pathway to a two-state solution.




Palestinians search through the rubble following Israeli strikes in Nuseirat refugee camp in the central Gaza Strip, on November 1, 2024. (AFP)

Epitomizing the hypocrisy that has so infuriated millions, including the many Arab American voters who have switched their allegiance from the Democrats to the Republicans in this election, the Biden-Harris administration has bemoaned the deaths of tens of thousands of innocent Palestinians while simultaneously supplying Israel with the munitions that killed them.

For Trump, regaining the White House would be a second chance at peacemaker immortality and, perhaps, the Nobel Peace Prize he felt he deserved for his 2020 Abraham Accords initiative.

Last time around, Trump did achieve the breakthrough of establishing diplomatic relations between Israel and the UAE and Bahrain. The big prize, which eluded him in 2020, was bringing Saudi Arabia on board. The Kingdom has made it clear that for that to happen, one condition must be fulfilled — the opening of a meaningful path to Palestinian statehood. This, therefore, could well be on the to-do list of a Trump administration in 2025.

For Harris, the presidency would be a chance to step out from under the shadow of the Biden administration, which has so spectacularly failed to restrain Israel, its client state, and in the process has only deepened the crisis in the Middle East and undermined trust in the US in the region.

The West Bank

If America has equivocated over events in Palestine and Lebanon, the Biden administration has not turned a blind eye to the provocative, destabilizing activities of extremist Jewish settler groups in the West Bank.

In February, the White House issued an executive order imposing sanctions on “persons undermining peace, security, and stability in the West Bank.” The order, signed by President Joe Biden, condemned the “high levels of extremist settler violence, forced displacement of people and villages, and property destruction,” which had “reached intolerable levels” and constituted “a serious threat to the peace, security, and stability of the West Bank and Gaza, Israel, and the broader Middle East region.”




A wounded Palestinian man arrives for treatment for injuries sustained in clashes with Israeli settlers in the village of Mughayir, at a hospital in Ramallah in the occupied West Bank on April 12, 2024. (AFP)

So far, the US, reluctant to act against members of an ally’s government, has stopped short of sanctioning Israel’s far-right ministers Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir, the chief settler rabble-rousers in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s cabinet.

Whether Harris would continue with, or even strengthen the sanctions policy, remains to be seen, but the settlers believe that Trump would let them off the hook. “If Trump takes the election, there will be no sanctions,” Israel Ganz, chairman of one of the main settler groups, told Reuters last week.

“If Trump loses the election, we will in the state of Israel … have a problem with sanctions that the government over here has to deal with.”

It was, after all, Trump who recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, undoing decades of US foreign policy, and moved the US Embassy there from Tel Aviv.

Whoever wins, if they are truly interested in peace in the region, they will need to exert pressure on Netanyahu to bring the extremist right-wingers in his government to heel. It was Ben Gvir’s repeated incursions into the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound that Hamas cited as the main provocation that triggered its Oct. 7 attack on Israel last year.

Iran

Iran has been a thorn in the side of every US administration since the 1979 revolution, the roots of which can be traced back ultimately to the CIA-engineered overthrow of democratically elected Iranian Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh in 1953.

The next US president faces two key, interrelated choices, both of which have far-reaching consequences. The first is how to deal with Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian, a heart surgeon who was elected in July and, so far, has given every appearance of being someone who is prepared to negotiate and compromise with the West and its regional allies.

In the hope of lifting the sanctions that have so badly hurt his countrymen, if not their leaders, Pezeshkian has offered to open fresh negotiations with the US over Iran’s nuclear program.

According to a recent Arab News/YouGov poll ahead of the presidential election, this would be appealing to many Arab Americans.

Asked how the incoming US administration should tackle the influence of Iran and its affiliated militant groups in the region, 41 percent said it should resort to diplomacy and incentives, with only 32 percent supporting a more aggressive stance and a harsher sanctions regime.

Here, a Harris victory might pave the way to progress. The Biden presidency has seen some sanctions lifted and moves made toward reopening the Iran nuclear deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.

In a move that infuriated supporters of Israel but brought some relief to a region that appeared to be teetering on the brink of all-out war, in October the Biden administration publicly warned Israel that it would not support a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities in retaliation for Tehran’s drone and missile attack on Israel.

Under a Trump administration, however, progress with Iran would seem unlikely. It was Trump who in 2020 ordered the assassination of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps commander, Qassem Soleimani, and who in 2018 unilaterally pulled the US out of the JCPOA to the dismay of the other signatories, Iran and the five permanent members of the UN Security Council. It is difficult to see how he could revisit that decision.

The Houthis

In many ways, coming to an understanding with Iran could be the greatest contribution any US president could make to peace in the region, especially if that led to a defanging of Iran’s proxies, which have caused so much disruption in the Middle East.

The previous Trump administration backed Saudi Arabia’s war against the Houthi rebels in Yemen and designated the group as a foreign terrorist organization. In 2021, however, Biden reversed that decision and withdrew US support for the military interventions of the Coalition to Restore Legitimacy in Yemen against the rebels, who overthrew Yemen’s internationally recognized government, sparking the civil war, in 2015.




Houthi supporters attend an anti-Israel rally in solidarity with Gaza and Lebanon in the Houthi-controlled capital Sanaa on November 1, 2024. (AFP)

Since then, however, Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, and drone and missile assaults on Saudi Arabia, have opened Western eyes to the true nature of the rebel group, to the extent that in October Biden authorized the bombing of Houthi weapons stores by B2 stealth bombers.

For either candidate as president, apart from securing the all-important commercial navigation of the Red Sea, dealing with the Houthis offers the opportunity to mend bridges with Arab partners in the region (only Bahrain joined America’s Operation Prosperity Guardian, a naval mission to protect shipping).

But it is Trump, rather than the Biden-era tainted Harris, who is expected to come down hardest on the Houthis.

Hezbollah

Trump’s grasp of events in the Middle East has at times appeared tenuous. In a speech in October, for example, he boiled down the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon to “two kids fighting in the schoolyard.” As president, though, there seems little doubt that he would, once again, be Israel’s man in the White House.

In a recent call with Netanyahu, he appeared briefly to forget the importance of wooing the all-important Arab American swing-state votes and told the Israeli prime minister to “do what you have to do,” even as innocent civilians were dying at the hands of Israeli troops in Lebanon.

Of course, no American government is going to defend Hezbollah or any of Iran’s proxies. But when Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, was targeted in an Israeli airstrike in September, Harris released a statement that outlined a preference for diplomacy over continuing conflict.




Demonstrators celebrate during a rally outside the British Embassy in Tehran on October 1, 2024, after Iran fired a barrage of missiles into Israel in response to the killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. (AFP)

She had, she said, “an unwavering commitment to the security of Israel” and would “always support Israel’s right to defend itself against Iran and Iran-backed terrorist groups such as Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis.”

But, she added, “I do not want to see conflict in the Middle East escalate into a broader regional war. We have been working on a diplomatic solution along the Israel-Lebanon border so that people can safely return home on both sides of that border. Diplomacy remains the best path forward to protect civilians and achieve lasting stability in the region.”

The US presence in the Middle East

One of the findings of the recent Arab News/YouGov poll of Arab Americans ahead of the election was that a sizable majority (52 percent) believed the US should either maintain its military presence in the Middle East (25 percent), or actually increase it (27 percent).

This will be one of the big issues facing the next president, whose administration’s ethos could be one of increasing isolationism or engagement.

America still has 2,500 troops in Iraq, for example, where talks are underway that could see all US and US-led coalition personnel withdrawn from the country by the end of 2026 — 23 years since the invasion of Iraq in 2003.




A vehicle part of a US military convoy drives in Arbil, the capital of the autonomous Kurdish region of northern Iraq, on September 17, 2024. (AFP)

In April, Biden and Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani issued a joint statement affirming the intention to withdraw US troops, who now act mainly as advisers, and transition to a “bilateral security partnership.”

Trump, on the other hand, could go much further, and as president has a record of disengaging America from military commitments. In 2019, to the alarm of regional allies, he unilaterally ordered the sudden withdrawal of the stabilizing US military presence in northeastern Syria, and in 2020 withdrew hundreds of US troops who were supporting local forces battling against Al-Shabaab and Daesh militants in Somalia.

In the wake of his election defeat that year, he ordered the rapid withdrawal of all US troops from Afghanistan. The order was not carried out, but in September 2021, the Biden administration followed suit, ending America’s 20-year war and leading to the collapse of the Afghan National Security Forces and the takeover of the country by the Taliban.

 


Malaysia arrests 36 Bangladeshis over IS support

Updated 3 sec ago
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Malaysia arrests 36 Bangladeshis over IS support

“The group attempted to recruit members to fight in Syria or for Daesh,” Khalid said
Of those detained by Malaysian authorities, five suspects were subsequently charged for participating in terrorist organizations

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysian police said Friday they have arrested 36 Bangladeshi migrant workers suspected of supporting the Daesh group by promoting its ideology and raising funds through social media.

Police inspector-general Mohd Khalid Ismail said the Bangladesh nationals, who had arrived in Malaysia to work in factories, construction sites and petrol stations, were arrested in coordinated operations since April.

“The group attempted to recruit members to fight in Syria or for Daesh,” Khalid said in a televised news conference on Friday.

“They raised funds to be sent to Syria, and also to Bangladesh,” he said, adding that collections were transmitted through e-wallets and international funds transfer services.

Once in control of large swathes of Syria and Iraq, Daesh was territorially defeated in Syria in 2019 largely due to the efforts of Kurdish-led forces supported by an international coalition. It has maintained a presence mainly in the country’s vast desert.

Of those detained by Malaysian authorities, five suspects were subsequently charged for participating in terrorist organizations, spreading extremist ideologies and raising funds for terrorist activities.

Another 16 are still being probed for their support of the militant movement, while 15 more have been issued deportation orders.

“We believe they have between 100 to 150 members in their WhatsApp group,” Khalid said, adding investigations were ongoing.

“They collected an annual membership fee of about $118 (500 Malaysian ringgit) while further donations were made at their own discretion,” the police chief said.

Asked if the militant group had links to Daesh cells in other countries, Khalid said the police were still working with “our counterparts in other countries as well as Interpol... to uncover their terror network.”

Malaysia depends significantly on foreign workers to meet labor demands in the nation’s key manufacturing and agriculture sectors, with tens of thousands of Bangladeshi nationals arriving each year to fill these roles.

Cameroon’s 92-year-old president faces emerging rivals

Updated 54 min 21 sec ago
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Cameroon’s 92-year-old president faces emerging rivals

  • The government released a terse statement announcing Tchiroma had been replaced, without mentioning he had resigned

YAOUNDE, Cameroon: At 92, the world’s oldest head of state, Cameroonian President Paul Biya, faces defections by allies-turned-rivals jockeying to replace him in elections that could end his four-plus decades in power.
Biya, who has led Cameroon with an iron fist since 1982, has had two key allies defect back-to-back as the African country heads for elections in October.
First was Employment Minister Issa Tchiroma Bakary, who stepped down and announced on June 26 he was running for president for his party, the Cameroon National Salvation Front.
Two days later, Mnister of State Bello Bouba Maigari, a former prime minister, also jumped in in the presidential race.
Neither defection appears to have fazed the veteran leader.
The government released a terse statement announcing Tchiroma had been replaced, without mentioning he had resigned.
Biya’s camp also downplayed the challenge from Maigari, who leads the government-allied National Union for Democracy and Progress and has been close to the president for nearly three decades.
“Nothing new here,” Fame Ndongo, communications chief for the ruling Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement wrote in a front-page column Monday in the state newspaper, the Cameroon Tribune.
Biya had “long ago decoded the premonitory signs of these departures, which are part of the classic political game in an advanced liberal democracy,” Ndongo said.
By statute, Biya is automatically the ruling party’s presidential candidate, though he has not yet confirmed he will run.
The nonagenarian’s public appearances have grown rare and rumors of poor health are swirling.
Tchiroma and Maigari have challenged Biya before.
Both ran against him in the 1992 election.
Tchiroma had just been released from prison, and Maigari was just returning from exile at the time.
But both men, powerful figures from the country’s politically important, traditionally pro-government north, soon fell in line with Biya.
That has drawn criticism from some.
Northern Cameroon’s people “are rotting in poverty,” said Severin Tchokonte, a professor at the region’s University of Garoua.
“Supporting the regime all this time amounts to betraying those people, who have no water, no electricity, no infrastructure to ensure their minimal well-being,” he said.
Tchiroma has sought to distance himself from Biya’s tainted legacy, drawing a line between “yesterday” and “today.”
“Admittedly, we didn’t manage to lift you from poverty yesterday, but today, if we come together... we can do it,” he told a rally in Garoua in June.
Cameroon’s last presidential election, in 2018, was marred by violence.
Only around 53 percent of registered voters took part.
The ruling CPDM has long relied on alliances with potential rivals to keep it in power.
But Cameroon is in dire economic straits, and there are mounting calls for change, especially on social media.
With many of the country’s 28 million people mired in poverty, there could be a mass protest vote at the polls.
That may not benefit Tchiroma and Maigari, however.
Both face accusations of acting as Biya puppets to divert votes from more hard-line opponents such as Maurice Kamto of the Cameroon Renaissance Movement (CRM) — a charge both men deny.
“Bello and Tchiroma have been with the CPDM a long time. They could be looking to fracture and weaken the opposition to contain the surge of Maurice Kamto and the CRM,” said Tchokonte.
“If the CRM gets votes in the north, that could tip the balance.”
There is a “large, cross-regional” demand for change in Cameroon, said Anicet Ekane, the veteran leader of opposition party Manidem.
“It will be increasingly difficult for (Biya) to count on elites to tell people how to vote and avoid a national movement against the government,” he said.
Biya urged Cameroonians in February to ignore “the sirens of chaos” being sounded by “certain irresponsible individuals.”
“I can assure you my determination to serve you remains intact,” he said last year.

 


Power outage hits the Czech Republic and disrupts Prague public transport

Updated 04 July 2025
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Power outage hits the Czech Republic and disrupts Prague public transport

  • Prague’s entire subway network was inoperative starting at noon
  • “We are facing an extraordinary and unpleasant situation,” Fiala said

PRAGUE: A temporary power outage hit parts of the Czech Republic’s capital and other areas of the country Friday, bringing public transport and trains to a standstill, officials said.

Prague’s entire subway network was inoperative starting at noon, the capital city’s transport authority said, though subway service was restored within half an hour.

Prime Minister Petr Fiala said in a post on X that the outage hit other parts of the country and authorities were dealing with the problem.

“We are facing an extraordinary and unpleasant situation,” Fiala said, adding it was a priority to renew power supplies.

The CEPS power grid operator acknowledged problems in parts of four regions in northern and eastern Czech Republic. It said a fallen electricity line in the northwestern part of the country was identified as a possible cause for the outage.

Officials have ruled out a cyber or terror attack.

Of the eight substations in the grid that were affected, including a major one in Prague, five renewed operations in less than two hours, CEPS said.

Industry and Trade Minister Lukas Vlcek said the cause was likely a “mechanical malfunction.”

Most trams on the right bank of the Vltava River in Prague were halted, while the left bank was not affected. Some trains near Prague and other regions could not operate, causing delays but the situation was gradually getting back to normal.

There were no immediate reports that Václav Havel Airport Prague, the city’s international airport, was hit by the power outage.

In downtown Prague, stores and restaurant that remained open accepted only payments in cash.


Pro-Palestinian group loses bid to block UK government’s ban under anti-terrorism laws

Updated 04 July 2025
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Pro-Palestinian group loses bid to block UK government’s ban under anti-terrorism laws

  • At a hearing on Friday at the Hight Court in London, the group had sought to block ban, which will come into force midnight

LONDON: The pro-Palestinian activist group Palestine Action lost a bid to block the British government’s decision to ban it under anti-terrorism laws after activists broke into a military base last month and vandalized two planes.

At a hearing on Friday at the Hight Court in London, the group had sought to block the ban, which will come into force at midnight.

The ban, which was approved by Parliament earlier this week, will make membership of the group and support of its actions a criminal offense punishable by up to 14 years in prison.

The ban was triggered after pro-Palestinian activists broke into a Royal Air Force base in Brize Norton, damaging two planes using red paint and crowbars in protest at the British government’s ongoing military support for Israel in its war in Gaza.

Police said that the incident caused around 7 million pounds ($9.4 million) worth of damage, with four people charged in connection with the incident.

The four, aged between 22 and 35, were charged Thursday with conspiracy to commit criminal damage and conspiracy to enter a prohibited place for purposes prejudicial to the interests of the UK No pleas were entered at Westminster Magistrates’ Court in central London and the four are scheduled to appear on July 18 at the Central Criminal Court.

Home Secretary Yvette Cooper announced plans to proscribe Palestine Action as a terrorist organization a few days after the break-in. She said the vandalism to the two planes was “disgraceful,” adding that the group had a “long history of unacceptable criminal damage.”


Russia’s recognition of Taliban rule marks start of geopolitical shift, experts say

Updated 04 July 2025
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Russia’s recognition of Taliban rule marks start of geopolitical shift, experts say

  • Afghan FM says Russia’s recognition would ‘set a good example for other countries’
  • No other nation has formally recognized Taliban government after its 2021 takeover

KABUL: Russia’s formal recognition of the Taliban government as the legitimate authority in Afghanistan could mark the beginning of a major geopolitical shift in the region, experts said on Friday.

Russia became the first country on Thursday to officially recognize the Taliban rule, nearly four years since the group took control of Afghanistan.

Moscow’s ambassador to Afghanistan, Dmitry Zhirnov, had “officially conveyed his government’s decision to recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan” during a meeting in Kabul with the country’s foreign minister, Amir Khan Mutaqqi, according to a statement issued late on Thursday by the Afghan Foreign Ministry.

This was followed by the Russian Foreign Ministry announcing hours later that it had accepted the credentials of a new ambassador of Afghanistan, saying that “official recognition of the government of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan will give impetus to the development of productive bilateral cooperation between our countries in various fields.”

Muttaqi welcomed the decision and said in a statement that it would “set a good example for other countries.”

No other nation has formally recognized the Taliban government after it seized power in 2021, after US-led forces staged a chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan following 20 years of war.

However, a handful of countries, including China and the UAE have designated ambassadors to Kabul, while a number of foreign governments have continued the work of their diplomatic missions in the Afghan capital.

“Russia’s decision to recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan is a huge step. It’s one of the biggest achievements of the Islamic Emirate’s foreign policy in the last more than four years. It can be the beginning of a major geopolitical shift in the region and globally,” Naseer Ahmad Nawidy, political science professor at Salam University in Kabul, told Arab News. 

“The US’ one-sided position to support Israel in the war against Gaza and attack Iran compelled Iran and Russia to take independent steps, ignoring the US in their decisions. It’s a new phase towards moving to a multipolar world.”

With Moscow’s role as a key political player in Central Asia, its recognition of the Taliban will likely influence other countries in the region to follow suit, he added.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has steadily built ties with the Taliban government, despite it being widely shunned by the international community due to repeated human rights violations.

The rights of Afghan women in particular have been curtailed since the Taliban takeover. They are barred from secondary schools and higher education, restricted in public places and not allowed to take up most of the jobs available in the country.

“I consider this recognition as a deep stab in the back as an Afghan woman and for Afghan women who have been deprived of life, education, work, freedom,” Afghan women’s rights advocate Riha Ghafoorzai told Arab News.

Under the Taliban, Afghan society has been turned “into a political prison, with no free press, no political opposition, and no civil rights,” she said.

“Recognizing such a rule is an insult to the sacrifices of thousands of Afghans who have fought for a modern, free, and democratic Afghanistan.”

With the recognition, Russia effectively broke an international consensus that was aimed at forcing the Taliban to listen to public demands, implement reforms and establish a legitimate system.

But instead, Moscow is sending “a message to the Taliban that there is no need for reform, the international community will soften and the regime will eventually be legitimized, even if it is against the nation,” Ghafoorzai added.

“Russia’s recognition of the Taliban is a profound political message that will have far-reaching and long-term consequences for the geopolitical balance of the region, international norms, and the fate of the Afghan people,” she said.

“Recognizing extremism is a great political betrayal of democracy. I hope that the international community will closely examine this situation for the future of humanity.”