TOKYO: Some Asian countries stand to gain if US president-elect Donald Trump pushes ahead with his promised massive tariffs on China and triggers a new wave of factory relocations to the rest of the region.
But a trade war between the world’s biggest economies would also destabilize markets everywhere, with Asia — which contributes the largest share of global growth — the most affected.
Trump, who won a crushing presidential victory this week, vowed during his campaign to slap 60 percent tariffs on all Chinese goods entering the United States in an attempt to balance trade between the two nations.
Analysts however question whether the new president will stick to such a high figure, and dispute the blow such tariffs could inflect on the Chinese economy, estimating GDP could be lowered by between 0.7 percent and 1.6 percent.
The cooling effect would also make waves throughout Southeast Asia, where production chains are closely linked to China and enjoy significant investment from Beijing.
“Lower US demand for Chinese goods due to higher tariffs on China will translate into lower demand for ASEAN exports, even if there aren’t US tariffs levied directly onto those economies,” said Adam Ahmad Samdin, of Oxford Economics.
Indonesia is particularly exposed through its strong exports of nickel and minerals, but China is also the top trading partner of Japan, Taiwan and South Korea.
In addition to China, Donald Trump has also warned of an increase of 10 to 20 percent on duties for all imports, as part of his protectionist policies and fixation that other countries take advantage of the US.
“The extent of these effects likely depends on the direct exposure of each economy to the US,” said Samdin, who added that America accounts for a 39.1 percent share of Cambodian exports, 27.4 percent from Vietnam, 17 percent from Thailand and 15.4 percent from the Philippines.
Trump first slapped China with heavy tariffs in 2018 during his first administration, leading to the emergence of “connector countries,” through which Chinese companies passed their products to avoid American taxes.
Those countries could be in the line of fire now.
“Vietnam’s electronics exports to the US could also be targeted by Trump, in a bid to halt the diversion of Chinese electronic products to the US via Vietnam since 2018,” said Lloyd Chan, a senior analyst at MUFG, Japan’s largest bank.
“This is not inconceivable. Trade rewiring has notably gained traction in the region’s electronics value chain.”
“India could itself become a target of protectionist measures by the US due to the large share of Chinese components in Indian products,” added Alexandra Hermann, an economist with Oxford Economics.
Trump could also impose higher tariffs on Indian goods in sectors such as “automobiles, textiles, pharmaceuticals and wines, which could make Indian exports less competitive in the US,” said Ajay Srivastava of the New Delhi-based Global Trade Research Initiative.
A trade war would be dangerous for India, said Ajay Sahai, director of the Federation of Indian Export Organizations.
“Trump is a transactional person. He may target higher tariffs on certain items of Indian exports so he can negotiate for lower tariffs for US products in India,” he told AFP.
In the medium term, these negative effects could be counterbalanced by establishing factories outside China to escape the fallout.
The “China+1” strategy initiated during Donald Trump’s first term saw production shifts to India, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam.
With its geographical position and cheap skilled labor, Vietnam has already been one of the main beneficiaries.
The country has notably received investments from Taiwanese Apple subcontractors Foxconn and Pegatron and South Korea’s Samsung, becoming the second-largest exporter of smartphones in the world behind China.
“The likelihood increases that even more businesses will want to... have a second, or third, production base outside China,” said Bruno Jaspaert, chairman of the European Chamber of Commerce in Vietnam.
Chinese firms themselves are investing massively from Vietnam to Indonesia in sectors including solar, batteries, electric vehicles and minerals.
“American companies and investors are very interested in opportunities in Vietnam and this will continue under the incoming Trump Administration,” said Adam Sitkoff, executive director of the American Chamber of Commerce in Hanoi.
But whether it is low-end or high-tech production, China’s competitive advantage in terms of price, scale and quality is difficult to reproduce, warns Nomura bank.
A reorganization of production chains could lead to a “loss of efficiency” and increased prices, “with a negative impact on global growth,” Thomas Helbling, deputy director of the IMF for Asia, recently explained to AFP.
Asian countries could therefore gain export market share but ultimately see their situation deteriorate amid weakening global demand.
Asia, the world’s economic engine, prepares for Trump shock
https://arab.news/zuk5w
Asia, the world’s economic engine, prepares for Trump shock
- Trump vowed during campaign to slap 60 percent tariffs on Chinese goods entering US
- Move could impact Southeast Asia where production chains are closely linked to China
Political will, financial empowerment essential for gender equality: WEF panelists
- Alicia Barcena Ibarra: When women have economic autonomy, it’s easier for them to participate on many fronts
- Ibarra: We don’t want only women or only men. We need both because they have complementary visions
DUBAI: Political will is crucial for bridging the global gender gap and protecting women from pressing challenges, a panel of experts told the World Economic Forum in Davos on Wednesday.
Panelists acknowledged some progress in advancing female political representation, as 15.5 percent of heads of state around the world have been women over the past decade.
However, they called for more concerted efforts to bridge the gender gap in political power. According to WEF’s Global Gender Gap Report, it will take 168 years to reach gender parity, but if every economy had a gender-balanced Cabinet, global gender parity could be within reach in 54 years.
Alicia Barcena Ibarra, Mexico’s secretary of environment and natural resources, stressed that building women’s economic autonomy was key to advancing their political representation.
“When women have economic autonomy, it’s easier for them to participate on many fronts because when they are dependent on economic terms, that’s when they are vulnerable to corruption, dependency and abuse,” Ibarra said.
In Mexico, the first female president, Claudia Sheinbaum, was elected in October last year in a historic moment for the country. Under law, Congress now has to include 50 percent women, paving the way for the the first woman to lead the country’s Supreme Court, as well as the first female governor of the central bank.
While these strides on the political level have reflected positively on women’s social participation and inspired a young generation of Mexicans, Ibarra said that it revealed the pressure on women to perform.
Complementing her sentiments, Francois Valerian, chair of Transparency International, said that the lack of financial resources for women compared to men made females more vulnerable to abuses of power, state corruption and climate change.
“Pakistan’s floods, for example, left many women and children in need to receive aid,” said Valerian, calling for parity in political power to solve these issues at the community level.
Even during elections, women needed more financial resources for their campaigns “because they have less money, they are outsiders, and need to convince people they are to be trusted. Also, they need money for their safety in many countries,” Valerian said, as he urged governments to empower women to run for election through dedicating funds for this.
Therese Kayikwamba Wagner, minister of state and minister of foreign affairs of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, stressed that gender parity was necessary in all sectors to advance peacemaking and peacebuilding initiatives. So far, women’s inclusion had been achieved at the grassroot level.
She said that women needed to be included in decision-making and negotiating peace at the top level to ensure female concerns were well represented.
“There’s a need to think about how do we make sure that this is a cross-cutting approach and not just women at the local level who then have to own what is decided at the top level,” Wagner said.
At the UN General Assembly last year, only 19 speakers were women, including five heads of state and three heads of government, according to UN figures.
Wagner said that the starting point should be international organizations reflecting the progress on gender equality, and called for a female UN secretary-general.
“I think all our eyes are shifting toward Latin America because of the geographic rotation, with a lot of expectations that a continent that has distinguished itself with so many women that have assumed positions of leadership will also help us achieve that important milestone,” she said.
In peacemaking, the role of both genders was necessary for progress. “We don’t want only women or only men. We need both because they have complementary visions,” Mexico’s Ibarra said.
At least 12 rail passengers killed in western India after jumping onto tracks over fire alert
- Accident occurred in Maharashtra State, near Pardhade railroad station 410 km southwest of Mumbai
- Hundreds of accidents occur every year on India’s railways, the largest train network under one management
NEW DELHI: At least 12 train passengers were killed on Wednesday after being hit by another service on an adjacent track in western India after they jumped from their coaches in panic to escape a rumored fire incident, the Press Trust of India reported.
At least six other people were injured and taken to nearby hospitals, the news agency cited police officer Dattatraya Karale as saying.
The accident occurred in Maharashtra State, near the Pardhade railroad station, 410 kilometers (255 miles) southwest of Mumbai, India’s financial capital.
PTI said the victims jumped off the Pushpak Express train, which had stopped after some passengers pulled an emergency chain. Those who disembarked were hit by another express train on the adjacent railroad track, PTI quoted railway spokesman Swapnil Nila as saying.
“Our preliminary information is that there were sparks inside one of the coaches of Pushpak Express due to either ‘hot axle’ or ‘brake-binding’ (jamming), and some passengers panicked. They pulled the chain, and some of them jumped down on the tracks. At the same time, Karnataka Express was passing on the adjoining track,” a senior railway official told PTI.
Despite government efforts to improve rail safety, hundreds of accidents occur every year on India’s railways, which is the largest train network under one management in the world.
In 2023, two passenger trains collided after derailing in eastern India, killing more than 280 people and injuring hundreds in one of the country’s deadliest rail crashes in decades.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi is focussing on the modernization of the British colonial-era railroad network in India, which has become the world’s most populous country with 1.42 billion.
Afghan Americans fearful after Trump order halts refugee program
- Almost 200 family members of active-duty US military personnel approved for refugee resettlement in the US will be pulled off flights between now and April
- They are among nearly 1,560 Afghan refugees who will be taken off flight manifests, according to VanDiver and the official
WASHINGTON: An executive order by US President Donald Trump to suspend refugee admissions has magnified the fears of one Afghan American soldier who has long been worried about the fate of his sister in Kabul.
The soldier is afraid his sister could be forced to marry a Taliban fighter or targeted by a for-ransom kidnapping before she and her husband could fly out of Afghanistan and resettle as refugees in the US
“I’m just thinking about this all day. I can’t even do my job properly because this is mentally impacting me,” the soldier with the US Army’s 82nd Airborne Division told Reuters on Tuesday. He spoke on condition of anonymity for security reasons.
Almost 200 family members of active-duty US military personnel approved for refugee resettlement in the US will be pulled off flights between now and April under Trump’s order signed on Monday, according to Shawn VanDiver, head of the #AfghanEvac coalition of veterans and advocacy groups, and a US official familiar with the issue.
They are among nearly 1,560 Afghan refugees who will be taken off flight manifests, according to VanDiver and the official.
They said the group includes unaccompanied children and Afghans at risk of Taliban retaliation because they fought for the US-backed government that fled as the last US troops withdrew from the country in August 2021 after two decades of war.
The UN mission in Afghanistan says the Taliban have killed, tortured and arbitrarily detained former officials and troops. It reported in October that between July and September, there were at least 24 cases of arbitrary arrest and detention, 10 of torture and ill-treatment and at least five former soldiers had been killed.
The Taliban instituted a general amnesty for officials and troops of the former US-backed government and deny accusations of any retaliation. A spokesman for the Taliban-backed government did not immediately respond to questions about fears of retribution against those families awaiting relocation.
A UN report in May said that while the Taliban have banned forced marriages, a UN special rapporteur on human rights remained concerned about allegations that Taliban fighters have continued the practice “without legal consequences.”
A crackdown on immigration was a major promise of Trump’s victorious 2024 election campaign, leaving the fate of US refugee programs up in the air.
His executive order, signed hours after he was sworn for a second term, said he was suspending refugee admissions until programs “align with the interests of the United States” because the country cannot absorb large numbers of migrants without compromising “resources available to Americans.”
DESTINY UNCLEAR
“It’s not good news. Not for my family, my wife, for all of the Afghans that helped us with the mission. They put their lives in danger. Now they will be left alone, and their destiny is not clear,” said Fazel Roufi, an Afghan American former 82nd Airborne Division soldier.
Roufi, a former Afghan army officer, came to the US on a student visa, obtained citizenship and joined the US Army. He witnessed the chaotic Kabul airport pullout as an adviser and translator for the commanding US general, and he himself helped to rescue Americans, US embassy staff and others.
His wife, recently flown by the State Department to Doha for refugee visa processing, now sits in limbo in a US military base.
“If my wife goes back, they (the Taliban) will just execute her and her family,” said Roufi, who retired from the US Army in 2022.
The active-duty 82nd Airborne soldier said he harbors similar fears, adding that his sister and her husband have been threatened with kidnapping by people who think they are rich because the rest of the family escaped to the US in the 2021 evacuation.
“She has no other family members (in Afghanistan) besides her husband,” he said.
Trump’s order has ignited fears that he could halt other resettlement programs, including those that award special immigration visas to Afghans and Iraqis who worked for the US government, said Kim Staffieri, executive director of the Association of Wartime Allies, a group that helps Afghans and Iraqis resettle in the United States.
“They’re all terrified. The level of anxiety we are getting from them, in many ways, feels like the lead-up to August 2021,” she said, referring to the panic that prompted thousands of Afghans to storm Kabul airport hoping to board evacuation flights.
Another Afghan American, who caught a flight with the US troops for whom he translated and joined the Texas National Guard after obtaining his green card, said his parents, two sisters, his brother and his brother’s family had been scheduled to fly to the US within the next month. He had found accommodations for them in Dallas.
“I cannot express in words how I feel,” said the Afghan American who asked his name be withheld out of fear for his family’s safety. “I don’t feel good since yesterday. I cannot eat. I cannot sleep.”
African Union ‘dismayed’ US withdrawing from WHO
- AU’s Commission Chairman Moussa Faki Mahamat said he was “dismayed to learn of the US government’s announcement to withdraw” from WHO
- Trump has repeatedly criticized the WHO over its handling of the Covid-19 pandemic
ADDIS ABABA: The African Union expressed dismay Wednesday over President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw the United States from the World Health Organization, urging his administration to reconsider.
Just hours after taking office on Monday, Trump signed an executive order directing the US to withdraw from the UN agency, which threatens to leave global health initiatives short of funding.
African Union Commission Chairman Moussa Faki Mahamat said in a statement he was “dismayed to learn of the US government’s announcement to withdraw” from the Geneva-based WHO.
Washington is easily the biggest financial contributor to the organization and the pullout comes as Africa faces a range of health crises, including recent outbreaks of mpox and Marburg viruses.
“Now more than ever, the world depends on WHO to carry out its mandate to ensure global public health security as a shared common good,” Moussa Faki said, adding he hopes “the US government will reconsider its decision.”
He said Washington was an early supporter of the Africa CDC, the African Union’s health watchdog which works with the WHO to counter present and emerging pandemics.
Trump has repeatedly criticized the WHO over its handling of the Covid-19 pandemic and said prior to his inauguration that “World Health ripped us off.”
The United States was in the process of withdrawing from the WHO during Trump’s first term, but the move was reversed under Joe Biden.
Tom Frieden, a former US senior health official, wrote on X that the withdrawal “weakens America’s influence, increases the risk of a deadly pandemic, and makes all of us less safe.”
It comes as fears grow of the pandemic potential of a bird flu outbreak, which has infected dozens and claimed its first human life in the United States earlier this month.
WHO member states have been negotiating the world’s first treaty on handling future pandemics since late 2021 — negotiations now set to proceed without the US.
In Itaewon, Seoul’s Korean Muslim minority finds a sense of belonging
- Muslims make up only around 0.3 percent of South Korea’s 51 million population
- Seoul Central Mosque in Itaewon is South Korea’s first and largest
SEOUL: Tucked away behind the main avenue of Seoul’s central Itaewon district, the signs along “Muslim Street” — which features the Korean alphabet Hangul and Arabic script side by side — is the first giveaway of the neighborhood’s soul.
A little walk up the street, visitors would then find the Seoul Central Mosque — the country’s first and largest — that for decades has served as a beating heart for South Korea’s minority Muslim community.
“Korean Muslims are one of the smallest minority groups in Korea … In Itaewon, no one thinks I am weird when I tell them I am Muslim, or when I pray at the mosque or dress in Arab clothes. It gives me a sense of tranquility. And it also satisfies a big portion of the loneliness I feel as a Muslim,” Eom Min-a, a 35-year-old government official, told Arab News.
“When I meet friends in Itaewon, or when I pray in the mosque with other Muslims, I feel that I am not alone in this country. That makes me keep wanting to go there.”
In South Korea, Muslims make up only around 0.3 percent of the country’s 51 million population, according to the Korea Muslim Federation. Migrant workers from Muslim countries make up the bulk of the Korean Muslim community, as around 70 percent of them are foreigners.
For Koreans like Eom, being Muslim is often a lonely and alienating experience. She deals with microaggressions from time to time and often feels excluded from the larger society.
But whenever she visits Itaewon, she feels liberated. It is also the place where she meets her Muslim friends — most of whom are foreigners — and eats Arab food.
“When you go to Itaewon, you can see the mosque on top of the neighborhood’s highest hill. You feel a sense of pride,” she said. “I feel liberated and I find a lot of emotional comfort there.”
Though small, the growth of the Muslim community in Korea is often traced back to when the Seoul Central Mosque was built in 1976, with funding from Saudi Arabia.
Since then, Muslims in and around Seoul have visited the mosque in Itaewon especially to get together and celebrate the main holidays in Islam, Eid Al-Adha and Eid Al-Fitr.
“Before my child was born, I would go to the central mosque in Itaewon during Ramadan or Eid and participate in the prayers,” business owner Kim Jin-woo told Arab News.
“From our point of view as Muslims, the neighborhood and the Central Mosque feel like home … In our heart, it is a place like home.”
Kim’s visits to Itaewon are also related to household needs at times, including buying halal or Arab ingredients. From dates to homemade hummus to falafel, the shop Kim goes to carries more Arab products than Korean ones.
“My family also goes to Itaewon to shop for groceries. My wife mostly cooks Moroccan food at home, and the shopping center there has a large assortment of Arab groceries and halal meat,” he said.
Over the years, Seoul’s Muslim neighborhood has grown into a beacon of diversity and peaceful coexistence even for other Itaewon residents, including for 83-year-old Kim C., a non-Muslim who has run a shop in the area for over 40 years.
“I have hired foreign Muslim employees myself. They are genuine people,” Kim told Arab News. “They are no different from my other neighbors.”
