TOKYO: Some Asian countries stand to gain if US president-elect Donald Trump pushes ahead with his promised massive tariffs on China and triggers a new wave of factory relocations to the rest of the region.
But a trade war between the world’s biggest economies would also destabilize markets everywhere, with Asia — which contributes the largest share of global growth — the most affected.
Trump, who won a crushing presidential victory this week, vowed during his campaign to slap 60 percent tariffs on all Chinese goods entering the United States in an attempt to balance trade between the two nations.
Analysts however question whether the new president will stick to such a high figure, and dispute the blow such tariffs could inflect on the Chinese economy, estimating GDP could be lowered by between 0.7 percent and 1.6 percent.
The cooling effect would also make waves throughout Southeast Asia, where production chains are closely linked to China and enjoy significant investment from Beijing.
“Lower US demand for Chinese goods due to higher tariffs on China will translate into lower demand for ASEAN exports, even if there aren’t US tariffs levied directly onto those economies,” said Adam Ahmad Samdin, of Oxford Economics.
Indonesia is particularly exposed through its strong exports of nickel and minerals, but China is also the top trading partner of Japan, Taiwan and South Korea.
In addition to China, Donald Trump has also warned of an increase of 10 to 20 percent on duties for all imports, as part of his protectionist policies and fixation that other countries take advantage of the US.
“The extent of these effects likely depends on the direct exposure of each economy to the US,” said Samdin, who added that America accounts for a 39.1 percent share of Cambodian exports, 27.4 percent from Vietnam, 17 percent from Thailand and 15.4 percent from the Philippines.
Trump first slapped China with heavy tariffs in 2018 during his first administration, leading to the emergence of “connector countries,” through which Chinese companies passed their products to avoid American taxes.
Those countries could be in the line of fire now.
“Vietnam’s electronics exports to the US could also be targeted by Trump, in a bid to halt the diversion of Chinese electronic products to the US via Vietnam since 2018,” said Lloyd Chan, a senior analyst at MUFG, Japan’s largest bank.
“This is not inconceivable. Trade rewiring has notably gained traction in the region’s electronics value chain.”
“India could itself become a target of protectionist measures by the US due to the large share of Chinese components in Indian products,” added Alexandra Hermann, an economist with Oxford Economics.
Trump could also impose higher tariffs on Indian goods in sectors such as “automobiles, textiles, pharmaceuticals and wines, which could make Indian exports less competitive in the US,” said Ajay Srivastava of the New Delhi-based Global Trade Research Initiative.
A trade war would be dangerous for India, said Ajay Sahai, director of the Federation of Indian Export Organizations.
“Trump is a transactional person. He may target higher tariffs on certain items of Indian exports so he can negotiate for lower tariffs for US products in India,” he told AFP.
In the medium term, these negative effects could be counterbalanced by establishing factories outside China to escape the fallout.
The “China+1” strategy initiated during Donald Trump’s first term saw production shifts to India, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam.
With its geographical position and cheap skilled labor, Vietnam has already been one of the main beneficiaries.
The country has notably received investments from Taiwanese Apple subcontractors Foxconn and Pegatron and South Korea’s Samsung, becoming the second-largest exporter of smartphones in the world behind China.
“The likelihood increases that even more businesses will want to... have a second, or third, production base outside China,” said Bruno Jaspaert, chairman of the European Chamber of Commerce in Vietnam.
Chinese firms themselves are investing massively from Vietnam to Indonesia in sectors including solar, batteries, electric vehicles and minerals.
“American companies and investors are very interested in opportunities in Vietnam and this will continue under the incoming Trump Administration,” said Adam Sitkoff, executive director of the American Chamber of Commerce in Hanoi.
But whether it is low-end or high-tech production, China’s competitive advantage in terms of price, scale and quality is difficult to reproduce, warns Nomura bank.
A reorganization of production chains could lead to a “loss of efficiency” and increased prices, “with a negative impact on global growth,” Thomas Helbling, deputy director of the IMF for Asia, recently explained to AFP.
Asian countries could therefore gain export market share but ultimately see their situation deteriorate amid weakening global demand.
Asia, the world’s economic engine, prepares for Trump shock
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Asia, the world’s economic engine, prepares for Trump shock
- Trump vowed during campaign to slap 60 percent tariffs on Chinese goods entering US
- Move could impact Southeast Asia where production chains are closely linked to China
India mosque survey sparks clashes, two dead
- Hindu nationalist activists were emboldened earlier this year when Modi inaugurated a grand new Hindu temple in Ayodhya, built on grounds once home to Babri mosque
LUCKNOW: Indian Muslim protesters clashed with police Sunday with at least two people killed in riots sparked by a survey investigating if a 17th-century mosque was built on a Hindu temple.
“Two persons were confirmed dead,” Pawan Kumar, a police officer in Sambhal in the northern state of Uttar Pradesh, told AFP, adding that 16 police officers were “seriously injured” during the clashes.
The Press Trust of India news agency quoted officials saying three people had died.
Hindu activist groups have laid claim to several mosques they say were built over Hindu temples during the Muslim Mughal empire centuries ago.
Street battles broke out when a team of surveyors entered the Shahi Jama Masjid in Sambhal on orders from a local court, after a petition from a Hindu priest claiming it was built on the site of a Hindu temple.
Protesters on Sunday hurled rocks at police, who fired tear gas canisters to clear the crowd.
Hindu nationalist activists were emboldened earlier this year when Prime Minister Narendra Modi inaugurated a grand new Hindu temple in the northern city of Ayodhya, built on grounds once home to the centuries-old Babri mosque.
That mosque was torn down in 1992 in a campaign spearheaded by members of Modi’s party, sparking sectarian riots that killed 2,000 people nationwide, most of them Muslims.
Some Hindu campaigners see an ideological patron in Modi.
Calls for India to more closely align the country’s officially secular political system with its majority Hindu faith have rapidly grown louder since Modi was swept to office in 2014, making the country’s roughly 210-million-strong Muslim minority increasingly anxious about their future.
Man in critical condition after stabbing on London’s Westminster Bridge
- Authorities have said that the incident is not being treated as terrorism-related
LONDON: A man is in critical condition after being stabbed during a reported fight on Westminster Bridge in central London, the Metropolitan Police confirmed on Sunday.
Emergency services, including the London Ambulance Service and an air ambulance, were called to the scene at about 10:45 UK time and an injured man was rushed to hospital for treatment.
A London London Ambulance Service spokesperson said: “We were called today (Sunday) at 10.46 a.m. to reports of an incident on Westminster Bridge, SW1.
“We sent a number of resources including ambulance crews, an advanced paramedic, an incident response officer and London’s air ambulance.
“We treated a man at the scene before taking him to hospital,” they added.
Three individuals have been arrested on suspicion of attempted murder, while a fourth has been detained for affray, the BBC reported.
Two of the arrested suspects sustained minor facial injuries and were also taken to hospital, according to police.
Authorities have said that the incident is not being treated as terrorism-related.
In March 2017, Briton Khalid Masood drove a car into pedestrians who were walking on the pavement along Westminster Bridge and Bridge Street, injuring more than 50 people, four of them fatally, before killing an unarmed police officer in the grounds of the Palace of Westminster.
He was then shot by an armed police officer, and died at the scene.
Bangladesh prepares to send trained nurses to Saudi Arabia in 2025
- Authorities are preparing to fulfill a Saudi request for 150 Bangladeshi nurses
- Migration of skilled Bangladeshi workers has been on the rise this year, government data shows
DHAKA: Bangladesh is preparing to send the first batch of trained nurses to Saudi Arabia by early next year, the country’s state-owned recruiting agency told Arab News on Sunday.
Bangladeshi nationals make up the largest group of expatriates in Saudi Arabia, with nearly 3 million working and residing in the Kingdom. But only a few dozen clinicians are among the group, according to Bangladesh Medical Association data.
In 2022, the two countries signed an agreement on the recruitment of health workers, targeting the large numbers of certified doctors, nurses and medics from Bangladesh’s more than 100 medical colleges.
Bangladeshi authorities are now preparing a batch of over 100 nurses to send to Saudi Arabia, said the Bangladesh Overseas Employment and Services Ltd., a recruitment agency under the Ministry of Expatriates’ Welfare and Overseas Employment.
“We got a request to send 150 nurses to the Kingdom … If everything goes alright, we can expect the first batch to (fly out) to the Kingdom early next year,” BOESL Executive Director Shawkat Ali said.
In Saudi Arabia, nurses must undergo the Saudi Prometric Exam in order to practice in the Kingdom. Though Bangladesh has many nursing school graduates, most do not have the required Prometric certifications, he added.
“Our nurses are very skilled and industrious … We have received huge queries for the nurses. But here they need to have the Prometric certification. If we can prepare them in line with the Saudi requirements, it will open new opportunities for our nurses.”
Only around 2 percent of Bangladeshi workers in the Kingdom are skilled professionals, but the number has been on the rise since the beginning of the year, according to data from the Bureau of Manpower, Employment and Training.
Though most Bangladeshi migrant workers are seeking employment in Saudi Arabia’s giga-projects under its Vision 2030 transformation plan, there has also been a growing demand for health workers from the South Asian nation.
“For our economy, exporting trained nurses to the Kingdom is a big opportunity. We are mostly an import-dependent country, so we need huge amounts of dollars to meet the import bills,” Ali said.
“If we can export a significant number of trained medical staffers, they would be able to send back more remittances.”
Ukraine shows fragments of new Russian missile after ‘Oreshnik’ strike
- Russia on Thursday carried out a strike on the city of Dnipro last week
- Use of IRBM in response to Ukraine’s firing US ATACMS and UK Storm Shadow missiles
UNDISCLOSED, Ukraine: Ukraine on Sunday showed journalists fragments of the Russian missile used to strike the city of Dnipro last week, after Moscow said it had tested its new Oreshnik ballistic missile.
Russia on Thursday carried out a strike on the city which President Vladimir Putin said was a test of its new Oreshnik hypersonic intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM).
Ukraine’s SBU security service displayed metal fragments, ranging from bulky to tiny, on fake grass in front of camouflage netting at an undisclosed location Sunday, AFP journalists saw.
The SBU did not name the missile used but said it was a type they had not seen before.
Oleg, one of its investigators, told journalists that “this is the first time the debris of such a missile has been found on the territory of Ukraine.
“This item had not been documented by security investigators before,” he added.
Oleg said that investigators are examining the fragments and will later “provide answers” on the characteristics of the missile.
He said that the missile was ballistic and had caused damage to civilian and “other infrastructure” in Dnipro.
In a televised address Thursday, Putin said Russia used the IRBM in response to Ukraine’s firing US ATACMS and UK Storm Shadow missiles into Russian territory, after the Kyiv allies lifted a ban on it using long-range weaponry to fire into Russia.
Putin said the missile flies at 10 times the speed of sound and cannot be intercepted by air defenses.
The president said it hit a defense industry production facility in Dnipro “which still produces missile equipment and other weapons.”
A Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman was heard answering a phone call about a strike on Yuzhmash during a press briefing. Yuzhmash is the Russian name of an aerospace manufacturer in Dnipro now called Pivdenmash.
Neither Kyiv nor Moscow has confirmed whether this was the target.
Putin has promised more combat testing of the Oreshnik missile and said it will go into serial production.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has called the strike “the latest bout of Russian madness” and appealed for updated air-defense systems to meet the new threat.
The head of Ukraine’s military intelligence has said Kyiv knew several prototypes of the missile had been produced before it was fired.
Indonesia’s Prabowo seeks UAE cooperation in industrialization efforts
- Indonesia’s new leader also visited Abu Dhabi in May as president-elect
- Indonesia, UAE signed new agreements covering energy, tech, healthcare
Jakarta: Indonesia’s new leader, President Prabowo Subianto, is seeking closer cooperation with the UAE on Jakarta’s industrialization efforts as he made his first official trip to Abu Dhabi since taking office last month.
Indonesia’s relations with the UAE grew under former President Joko Widodo, who in 2021 secured a more than $46 billion investment commitment from the Gulf state. The two countries signed a free trade deal a year later, which came into force last September.
The UAE was Prabowo’s last stop in his first foreign trip since becoming Indonesia’s new leader in October.
“Now that I have earned the trust from my people to lead Indonesia, I want to continue our good relations,” Prabowo told UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan during their first official meeting in Abu Dhabi on Saturday.
Jakarta’s priorities are focused on defense, food security and energy security, he said, adding that the government also wants to implement a downstream policy that includes domestic processing of raw materials.
“This means we want to perform a massive industrialization,” Prabowo said. “In this context, we see that the UAE and Indonesia have similar priorities. We can work together across different sectors and we want to invite the UAE to actively participate in our economy.”
The two leaders also presided over the signing of several agreements as part of their meeting, covering areas such as technology, renewable energy, infrastructure and health.
“They agreed to increase trade between the two countries, specifically by optimizing the utilization of Indonesia-UAE CEPA,” Indonesian foreign ministry spokesperson Roy Soemirat told Arab News on Sunday.
“President Prabowo welcomed the UAE president’s invitation to strengthen cooperation in infrastructure and collaboration in international forums to resolve global issues, including peaceful conflict resolution.”
Prabowo’s visit to Abu Dhabi was his second this year, following a trip in May as president-elect.
He was concluding his first overseas trip as president, which also included stops in China, the US, and the UK.
