RIYADH: Egypt’s economy expanded 4.77 percent in the third quarter of fiscal year 2024/2025, its fastest pace in three years, as growth rebounded across non-oil manufacturing, tourism, and telecommunications, official data showed. 

According to preliminary figures released by the Ministry of Planning, Economic Development, and International Cooperation, the acceleration — up from 2.2 percent a year earlier — lifted average growth for the first nine months of the fiscal year to 4.2 percent, surpassing earlier expectations and signaling growing resilience amid global uncertainties. 

The ministry added that full-year growth may exceed the government’s 4 percent target. 

This comes as Egypt’s economy has navigated significant turbulence and transformation over the past five years. After pandemic disruption and rising foreign debt, the overnment secured an $8 billion International Monetary Fund-backed rescue package in early 2024, floated its currency — triggering a 38 percent depreciation — and raised interest rates sharply.  

In its quarterly GDP note, the ministry stated: “Dr. Rania Al-Mashat, Minister of Planning, Economic Development, and International Cooperation, highlighted that the Egyptian economy continued its robust recovery in the third quarter of the current fiscal year, demonstrating growing resilience amid mounting global uncertainties.” 

It noted that higher-than-expected GDP growth was driven by strong performance in key sectors, reflecting the impact of Egypt’s macroeconomic policies and structural reform agenda. 

“Dr. Al-Mashat emphasized that this momentum builds on the solid recovery observed since the start of the fiscal year and aligns with the government’s broader strategy to promote private sector–led growth and advance the transition toward a more competitive, export-oriented economy focused on tradable goods and services,” the release added. 

Growth is expected to rebound from around 3 percent in 2023 to an estimated 4.2 percent by 2025, driven by private investment, infrastructure projects, and tourism recovery, according to World Bank projections.  

Inflation, peaking near 38 percent in late 2023, cooled to approximately 12 percent to 13 percent by early 2025.  

Persistent challenges include energy deficits, waning gas production, substantial external debt, and widening current-account and budget deficits 

“The strong outturn also reflects the continued implementation of the reform agenda, under the National Structural Reform Program, which is instrumental in maintaining macroeconomic stability, improving the governance of public investment, enhancing economic competitiveness, and expanding private sector participation,” the report stated. 

The program, launched in 2021, aims to diversify the Egyptian economy and enhance its competitiveness by focusing on strengthening key sectors, improving the business environment, and promoting sustainable and inclusive growth. 

The report noted that non-oil manufacturing output grew by 16 percent in the quarter, reversing a 4 percent contraction a year earlier.  

The industrial production index excluding crude oil and petroleum products expanded by 16.03 percent, led by significant gains in motor vehicles, which grew by 93 percent, ready-made garments by 58 percent, beverages by 34 percent, paper by 20 percent, and textiles by 17 percent. 

The sector contributed 1.9 percentage points to overall GDP growth. Exports of finished goods rose by 12.7 percent year on year in the quarter. 

The tourism sector also posted a strong performance, growing by 23 percent. Visitor arrivals reached 4 million, with tourist nights increasing to 41 million.  

Telecommunications expanded by 14.7 percent, while financial intermediation grew by 17.34 percent, insurance by 7.7 percent, electricity by 5.76 percent, and construction by 3.13 percent. 

On the expenditure side, net exports contributed approximately 2.7 percentage points to growth, as exports rose by 54.4 percent, outpacing an 18.7 percent increase in imports.  

Private investment increased by 24.2 percent year on year at constant prices, accounting for 62.8 percent of total implemented investments excluding inventory, and surpassing public investment for the third consecutive quarter.  

However, public investment contracted by 45.6 percent, resulting in a negative overall contribution of investment to GDP growth, estimated at minus 2.44 percentage points. 

Some sectors continued to decline. Suez Canal activity fell by 23.1 percent, reflecting ongoing geopolitical disruptions, while extractive industries contracted by 10.38 percent due to reduced oil and gas output. Petroleum activity declined by 9.52 percent, and natural gas extraction by 20.5 percent. 

Looking ahead, the government projects GDP growth of 4.5 percent for fiscal year 2025/2026 under the Economic and Social Development Plan approved by Parliament in June.  

The plan caps public investment at 1.158 trillion Egyptian pounds ($24.64 billion) and allocates about 47 percent of treasury-funded investments to health, education, and social services.

Despite regional instability following the outbreak of conflict between Israel and Iran, the government has maintained its growth outlook, citing relatively contained effects on global markets.