As Israel’s war machine rages, Pakistan is on the right side of history
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From the annals of history comes Lebanon bruised and battered. Beirut’s grandiose cultural aplomb once made it the ‘Paris of the Middle East’ until ruinous wars, that have all but charred the country’s landscape and its social fabric. As Israel’s military’s juggernaut continues to pummel large swathes of that country, it is appropriate to assess Benjamin Netanyahu, the trajectory of his war and Pakistan’s role so far in the conflict.
Netanyahu presents an interesting case when one investigates him at the four levels of analysis that are the foundation of policy formulation. His worldview is deeply polarized, afflicted. This manifests itself in his personal acquisition of power, intolerance of differing views and an abnegation to compromise. His handling of the war has certainly made Israel more vulnerable, globally, with traditional allies such as France and the UK exploring arms sales suspensions and sanctions on Itmar Ben Gvir and Bezalal Smotrich, two ultra-right key coalition partners of Netanyahu, without whose support the most right-wing government in the country’s history might falter. However, in different political arenas, big players are challenged by small ones who are using new playbooks that make power both more available and more evanescent.
In a war where the outcome may well determine the new Middle East and geopolitics of the future, Pakistan has done well by standing on the right side of history.
Muhammad Nasir Chaudhry
The aforementioned is true for Israel’s war trajectory that has swayed public opinion in its strongest bastion of support, the US. Campus protests, the increasingly vocal antagonism toward Israel within the progressives of the democratic party and some of the largest pro-Palestinian rallies across the US are a case in point. As is the growing frustration at the higher echelons of the US administration with Netanyahu. Moreover, major states like Spain, Norway and Ireland have extended recognition to the Palestinian State. Latin American states have censured the State of Israel by severance of diplomatic relations or cutting ties altogether.
The curvature of Israel’s war ahead is likely to come under contest as the war continues to traverse established red lines. Israel’s regional calculus has been served well by operationalizing tactical responses to years of intelligence mining unlike its 2006 duel with Hezbollah. It may have synergised to scuttle any rapprochement between Iranian reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian and the West. This was at a time when Pezeshkian had made the revival of the nuclear deal with the West a major plank of his policy hoping to obtain sanctions relief for his country. However, the Iranian system continues to show resilience and may have received a shot in the arm after two dozen Iranian missiles breached the Israeli and allied air defense systems last month. Its axis of resistance may have come under unprecedented strain with Hamas’ capabilities degraded, a generational leadership blow to Hezbollah but an objective valuation of the Israeli-Hezbollah conflagration would pronounce a bloody and ruinous disaster for both, with Israel’s stated aim of an end to Hezbollah no way in sight.
The war may further strain Israel’s economy, its war weary troops are battling on Hezbollah’s turf with a well-grounded, armed and trained militia that is yet to unleash its full arsenal. Any threat to the latter might coerce Hezbollah and its patron in unleashing it, rather than risking its loss. Significantly, Netanyahu’s actions would in fact be aiding his arch enemy into crossing the Rubicon; the nuclear threshold, should the regime in Iran feel an existential threat.
In a war where the outcome may well determine the new Middle East and geopolitics of the future, Pakistan has done well by standing on the right side of history. It has remained guided by its historical principled stance on the Palestinian question that was enunciated by the country’s founder, Muhammad Ali Jinnah. Pakistani diplomacy has played a critical role during the conflict particularly at the United Nations where it has been a forceful voice in sponsoring the UNGA (United Nations General Assembly) resolution on self-determination, presenting the OIC resolution at the UNHCR (United Nations Human Rights Council) calling for, among other things, an arms embargo on Israel, the Security Council resolution 2728 and its implementation.
Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif’s speech at the General Assembly late September, calling out Israel’s genocidal actions and leading a boycott of Netanyahu’s speech which succeeded him, was intrepid. Pakistan’s perennially under-resourced diplomats may receive flak at home but have done well in safeguarding the country’s interests amid diminishing clout and rising challenges. Moreover, a diplomat can only project elements of national power that principally, emanate from home. As war clouds this winter coil around Lebanon and as the smoke billowing from Beirut’s sheesha cafés tangles with plumes of gunpowder and rubble, one is reminded of T.S. Eliot’s lines, “Winter kept us warm, covering Earth in forgetful snow, feeding a little life with dried tubers.”
– The writer works in the energy sector and contributes on contemporary affairs. He is based in Islamabad and can be reached at [email protected].
