BAKU: For the third straight year, efforts to fight climate change haven’t lowered projections for how hot the world is likely to get — even as countries gather for another round of talks to curb warming, according to an analysis Thursday.
At the United Nations climate talks, hosted in Baku, Azerbaijan, nations are trying to set new targets to cut emissions of heat-trapping gases and figure out how much rich nations will pay to help the world with that task.
But Earth remains on a path to be 2.7 degrees Celsius (4.9 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than pre-industrial times, according to Climate Action Tracker, a group of scientists and analysts who study government policies and translate that into projections of warming. Recent developments in China and the United States are likely to slightly worsen the outlook.
If emissions are still rising and temperature projections are no longer dropping, people should wonder if the United Nations climate negotiations — known as COP — are doing any good, said Climate Analytics CEO Bill Hare.
“There’s an awful lot going on that’s positive here, but on the big picture of actually getting stuff done to reduce emissions ... to me it feels broken,” Hare said.
Climate action is stifled by the biggest emitters
The world has already warmed 1.3 degrees Celsius (2.3 Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial times. That’s near the 1.5-degree (2.7 F) limit that countries agreed to at 2015 climate talks in Paris. Climate scientists say the atmospheric warming, mainly from human burning of fossil fuels, is causing ever more extreme and damaging weather including droughts, flooding and dangerous heat.
Climate Action Tracker does projections under several different scenarios, and in some cases, those are going up slightly.
“This is driven highly by China,” said Sofia Gonzales-Zuniga of Climate Analytics. Even though China’s fast-rising emissions are starting to plateau, they are peaking higher than anticipated, she said.
Another upcoming factor not yet in the calculations is the US elections. A Trump administration that rolls back the climate policies in the Inflation Reduction Act, and carries out the conservative blueprint Project 2025, would add 0.04 degree Celsius (0.07 Fahrenheit) to warming projections, Gonzales-Zuniga said. That’s not much, but it could be more if other nations use it as an excuse to do less, she said. And a reduction in American financial aid could also reverberate even more in future temperature outlooks.
“For the US it is going backwards,” said Hare. At least China has more of an optimistic future with a potential giant plunge in future emissions, he said.
“We should already be seeing (global) emissions going down” and they are not, Hare said. “The political system, politicians are not reacting. And I think that’s something that people everywhere should be worried about.”
Experts say $1 trillion is needed in climate cash for developing nations
The major battle in Baku is over how much rich nations will help poor countries to decarbonize their energy systems, cope with future harms of climate change and pay for damage from warming’s extreme weather. The old goal of $100 billion a year in aid is expiring and Baku’s main focus is coming up with a new, bigger figure.
A special independent group of experts commissioned by United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres issued its own estimate of costs and finances on Thursday, calling for a tripling of the old commitment.
“Advanced economies need to demonstrate a credible commitment” to helping poor nations, the report said.
A coalition of developing nations at the Baku talks are asking for $1.3 trillion in annual climate finance. The independent experts’ report said about $1 trillion a year is needed by developing nations from all outside sources, not just government grants.
Negotiators are still working out how much money will be on the table for the final deal, but indications late Wednesday suggested many options were still on the table.
“Developing country needs are in the trillions and its clear such an amount can’t be provided from public funding, rather private investment has to be brought to the table,” said German climate envoy Jennifer Morgan. “All financial players need to do their part.”
COP29’s lead negotiator, Yalchin Rafiyev, called getting a deal on money for developing nations is “our top priority.”
The report detailed how expensive decarbonizing the world’s economy would be, how much it would cost and where the money could come from. Overall climate adaption spending for all countries is projected to reach $2.4 trillion a year.
It’s personal for many activists from the countries experiencing the worst and most immediate impacts of climate change, like Sandra Leticia Guzman Luna, who is from Mexico and is the director of the climate finance group for Latin America and the Caribbean. “We are observing the climate impacts causing a lot of costs, not only economic costs but also human losses,” she said.
“I’m from one of the countries that needs to pay up and is historically responsible,” said Bianca Castro, a climate activist from Portugal. “Year after year, we come to COP and we are heartbroken with what doesn’t happen but we know needs to happen.”
Fraught politics isolates some nations
Argentina withdrew from the climate talks on Wednesday on the orders of its president, climate skeptic Javier Milei, as first reported by Climatica. The Argentine government did not respond to requests from The Associated Press for comment.
Climate activists called the decision regrettable.
“It is largely symbolic and all it does is remove the country from critical conversations going on climate finance,” said Anabella Rosemberg, an Argentina native who works as a senior adviser at Climate Action Network International. “It’s difficult to understand how a climate-vulnerable country like Argentina would cut itself from critical support being negotiated here at COP29.”
At the same time, France’s environment minister, who was set to lead the delegation, pulled out of the talks after Azerbaijan president Ilham Aliyev called out France and the Netherlands for their colonial histories in a speech on Wednesday.
Agnès Pannier-Runacher called Aliyev’s remarks on France and Europe “unacceptable.” Speaking at the French Senate on Wednesday, Pannier-Runacher criticized Azerbaijan’s leader for using the fight against climate change “for a shameful personal agenda.”
“The direct attacks on our country, its institutions and its territories are unjustifiable,” she said, adding it was “ironic that Azerbaijan, a repressive regime, gives human rights lessons.”

KYIV: When Bart Gruyaert agreed to help rebuild destroyed apartment blocks outside Kyiv, he hoped to be one cog in Ukraine’s vast reconstruction program, repairing just some of the damage wrought by Russia’s invasion.
But when the French company he works for, Neo-Eco, applied for building permits in the town of Gostomel, the local military administration asked the company to transfer the funds for the multimillion-dollar project to its bank account, under the pretense that it would run the project directly.
Officials told Gruyaert, “it’s better if you transfer the money you received to our account,” he recalled.
“But it doesn’t work like that,” he said.
The company refused, and progress on the initiative, which had secured €20 million in private funding, immediately slowed.
It marked the latest example of the endemic corruption that has plagued Ukraine since it became independent after the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991.
After Neo-Eco’s refusal on the bank transfer, the local administration started dragging things out, adding new requirements to the contract and trying to incentivize the company to “give envelopes” to the right people, Gruyaert alleged.
The company reluctantly decided to abandon the project in September 2023, saying it was “impossible” to work under such conditions.
Following the saga, Ukrainian investigators said they had uncovered a system of “embezzlement” in the Gostomel military administration and accused its head Sergiy Borysiuk of appropriating around 21 million hryvnia ($470,000) meant for the reconstruction of houses and apartments.
In June 2023, after the allegations surfaced, Borysiuk was dismissed by President Volodymyr Zelensky.
He had pre-empted his removal with a press conference several days earlier in which he said he had done “everything possible” to ensure reconstruction efforts.
“It seems to me that you are looking for the enemy in the wrong place,” he said.
The case is far from isolated.
Even though Ukraine has stepped up its anti-graft measures over the past decade to advance its ambition of joining the European Union, corruption scandals are still rife.
Transparency International ranked Ukraine 104 out of 180 countries in its “corruption perceptions index,” up from 144 in 2013.
For some officials, Russia’s invasion has provided new opportunities for personal enrichment.
Several high-profile cases of alleged embezzlement of reconstruction funds, as well as the arrest of officials for selling army exemption certificates, have emerged throughout the war.
While a potential embarrassment for Ukraine, which relies on billions of dollars in Western financial support, Transparency International Ukraine’s director Andriy Borovyk said attention to the cases showed the problem was not being “forgotten.”
And authorities also tout the uncovering of such schemes as a sign of “effective” enforcement.
Just 10 years ago, “who could have thought that senior officials could be accused of crimes?” said Viktor Pavlushchyk, head of the National Agency on Corruption Prevention.
“Now we have some very good examples,” he said.
Around 500 corruption cases have been opened this year and 60 convictions secured, according to the National Anti-Corruption Bureau.
But there are lingering fears the persistent problem will hamper Ukraine’s massive reconstruction agenda, deterring international partners from putting up funds.
The total cost of reconstructing Ukraine stands is estimated at $486 billion, according to a joint study by the World Bank, UN, EU and Ukrainian government.
Gruyaert has not been deterred by his experience in Gostomel, which was occupied by Russian forces in the first weeks of the February 2022 invasion.
Ukraine is “making a lot of progress” on corruption, Gruyaert said, adding that Neo-Eco has had to learn how to “zigzag between the various obstacles.”
The company is still working on several other projects and encourages other foreign investors to get involved.
But, bruised by the Gostomel experience, it now prioritizes working with cities where it has confidence it will not be asked for kickbacks.
Most concede that much remains to be done in Ukraine’s anti-corruption fight, especially when it comes to reconstruction.
It is still common for local officials to have stakes in construction companies through their relatives, several figures said.
Ukraine is trying to weed out such conflicts of interest and make the whole process more transparent.
Last year, the country launched a platform listing all open projects.
Called “DREAM,” the aim is to enable investors, journalists and Ukrainians to track the progress of construction projects, said its head Viktor Nestulia.
A commitment to such openness will be key to reassuring foreign investors, said Mustafa Nayyem, an activist and journalist who headed the reconstruction agency until earlier this year.
“The war is not an excuse not to fight corruption,” he said.
Corruption, “is not in Ukrainian DNA, it’s simply a question of will.”