BAKU: For the third straight year, efforts to fight climate change haven’t lowered projections for how hot the world is likely to get — even as countries gather for another round of talks to curb warming, according to an analysis Thursday.
At the United Nations climate talks, hosted in Baku, Azerbaijan, nations are trying to set new targets to cut emissions of heat-trapping gases and figure out how much rich nations will pay to help the world with that task.
But Earth remains on a path to be 2.7 degrees Celsius (4.9 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than pre-industrial times, according to Climate Action Tracker, a group of scientists and analysts who study government policies and translate that into projections of warming. Recent developments in China and the United States are likely to slightly worsen the outlook.
If emissions are still rising and temperature projections are no longer dropping, people should wonder if the United Nations climate negotiations — known as COP — are doing any good, said Climate Analytics CEO Bill Hare.
“There’s an awful lot going on that’s positive here, but on the big picture of actually getting stuff done to reduce emissions ... to me it feels broken,” Hare said.
Climate action is stifled by the biggest emitters
The world has already warmed 1.3 degrees Celsius (2.3 Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial times. That’s near the 1.5-degree (2.7 F) limit that countries agreed to at 2015 climate talks in Paris. Climate scientists say the atmospheric warming, mainly from human burning of fossil fuels, is causing ever more extreme and damaging weather including droughts, flooding and dangerous heat.
Climate Action Tracker does projections under several different scenarios, and in some cases, those are going up slightly.
“This is driven highly by China,” said Sofia Gonzales-Zuniga of Climate Analytics. Even though China’s fast-rising emissions are starting to plateau, they are peaking higher than anticipated, she said.
Another upcoming factor not yet in the calculations is the US elections. A Trump administration that rolls back the climate policies in the Inflation Reduction Act, and carries out the conservative blueprint Project 2025, would add 0.04 degree Celsius (0.07 Fahrenheit) to warming projections, Gonzales-Zuniga said. That’s not much, but it could be more if other nations use it as an excuse to do less, she said. And a reduction in American financial aid could also reverberate even more in future temperature outlooks.
“For the US it is going backwards,” said Hare. At least China has more of an optimistic future with a potential giant plunge in future emissions, he said.
“We should already be seeing (global) emissions going down” and they are not, Hare said. “The political system, politicians are not reacting. And I think that’s something that people everywhere should be worried about.”
Experts say $1 trillion is needed in climate cash for developing nations
The major battle in Baku is over how much rich nations will help poor countries to decarbonize their energy systems, cope with future harms of climate change and pay for damage from warming’s extreme weather. The old goal of $100 billion a year in aid is expiring and Baku’s main focus is coming up with a new, bigger figure.
A special independent group of experts commissioned by United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres issued its own estimate of costs and finances on Thursday, calling for a tripling of the old commitment.
“Advanced economies need to demonstrate a credible commitment” to helping poor nations, the report said.
A coalition of developing nations at the Baku talks are asking for $1.3 trillion in annual climate finance. The independent experts’ report said about $1 trillion a year is needed by developing nations from all outside sources, not just government grants.
Negotiators are still working out how much money will be on the table for the final deal, but indications late Wednesday suggested many options were still on the table.
“Developing country needs are in the trillions and its clear such an amount can’t be provided from public funding, rather private investment has to be brought to the table,” said German climate envoy Jennifer Morgan. “All financial players need to do their part.”
COP29’s lead negotiator, Yalchin Rafiyev, called getting a deal on money for developing nations is “our top priority.”
The report detailed how expensive decarbonizing the world’s economy would be, how much it would cost and where the money could come from. Overall climate adaption spending for all countries is projected to reach $2.4 trillion a year.
It’s personal for many activists from the countries experiencing the worst and most immediate impacts of climate change, like Sandra Leticia Guzman Luna, who is from Mexico and is the director of the climate finance group for Latin America and the Caribbean. “We are observing the climate impacts causing a lot of costs, not only economic costs but also human losses,” she said.
“I’m from one of the countries that needs to pay up and is historically responsible,” said Bianca Castro, a climate activist from Portugal. “Year after year, we come to COP and we are heartbroken with what doesn’t happen but we know needs to happen.”
Fraught politics isolates some nations
Argentina withdrew from the climate talks on Wednesday on the orders of its president, climate skeptic Javier Milei, as first reported by Climatica. The Argentine government did not respond to requests from The Associated Press for comment.
Climate activists called the decision regrettable.
“It is largely symbolic and all it does is remove the country from critical conversations going on climate finance,” said Anabella Rosemberg, an Argentina native who works as a senior adviser at Climate Action Network International. “It’s difficult to understand how a climate-vulnerable country like Argentina would cut itself from critical support being negotiated here at COP29.”
At the same time, France’s environment minister, who was set to lead the delegation, pulled out of the talks after Azerbaijan president Ilham Aliyev called out France and the Netherlands for their colonial histories in a speech on Wednesday.
Agnès Pannier-Runacher called Aliyev’s remarks on France and Europe “unacceptable.” Speaking at the French Senate on Wednesday, Pannier-Runacher criticized Azerbaijan’s leader for using the fight against climate change “for a shameful personal agenda.”
“The direct attacks on our country, its institutions and its territories are unjustifiable,” she said, adding it was “ironic that Azerbaijan, a repressive regime, gives human rights lessons.”
Earth’s projected warming hasn’t improved for 3 years. UN climate talks are still pushing
https://arab.news/c8jjs
Earth’s projected warming hasn’t improved for 3 years. UN climate talks are still pushing
- The group also said that recent developments in China and the United States are likely to slightly worsen the outlook
- They said Earth is on a path to be 2.7 degrees Celsius, or 4.9 Fahrenheit, warmer than pre-industrial times
Organizers of Expo 2020 Dubai open World Fair US
- The weeks-long event in Chicago will be the first in a nationwide series
- ‘Every pavilion tells a story, and every guest becomes part of it,’ organizer tells Arab News
CHICAGO: The organizers of Expo 2020 Dubai launched a three-week World Fair US in Chicago this week, saying it offers the same high-level experience of culture, food, entertainment and traditions from around the world.
Omar Al-Taha, CEO of ElectroMed Group — which supervised the construction of Expo 2020 Dubai — told Arab News that the fair in Chicago will be the first in a series of events planned for cities across the US.
He said the opening on Monday, at the SeatGeek Stadium and Fairgrounds in the Chicago suburb of Bridgeview, Illinois, was “well attended,” and the fair will continue until July 28.
“We’re featuring six pavilions representing the cultures, food and entertainment from countries in … Asia, Africa, Europe, the Middle East, North America and South America,” he added.
“The vendors have been selected for their authenticity, quality, and their passion for sharing their culture through cuisine.”
Al-Taha said he used the same criteria in Bridgeview as for Expo 2020 Dubai, adding: “World Fair US is about more than just a celebration — it’s about connections and experience. We wanted to create a space where people of every background can come together, learn from each other, and just enjoy the beauty of being human.
“In the Middle East pavilion, for example, participants will be able to not only enjoy Arab food and entertainment, but also products and crafts presented by dozens of vendors.”
SeatGeek Stadium, which can accommodate 28,000 visitors, hosts professional sports competitions, concert performances and fairs.
“We believe we can use this event to create an even larger ongoing event. We want to do this in different states around the country,” Al-Taha said.
“Chicago was our first choice … because it’s the land of many cultures. We didn’t need to bring vendors from outside ... Chicago has so many cultures and great diversity. This is the right place to start this.”
The World Fair US food court features local chefs and small businesses offering traditional dishes from across the globe, Al-Taha said.
“Every pavilion tells a story, and every guest becomes part of it. Whether you’re eating something new for the first time, dancing to a rhythm you’ve never heard, or just watching your kids’ eyes light up — we built this for you,” he added.
There is a fireworks display every Friday and Saturday night.
ICC seeks arrest of Taliban leaders over persecution of women
- Taliban had “severely deprived” girls and women of the rights to education, privacy and family life and the freedoms of movement, ICC judges said
THE HAGUE: The International Criminal Court on Tuesday issued arrest warrants for two senior Taliban leaders, accusing them of crimes against humanity for persecuting women and girls.
Judges said there were “reasonable grounds” to suspect Taliban Supreme Leader Hibatullah Akhundzada and chief justice Abdul Hakim Haqqani of committing gender-based persecution.
“While the Taliban have imposed certain rules and prohibitions on the population as a whole, they have specifically targeted girls and women by reason of their gender, depriving them of fundamental rights and freedoms,” the court said in a statement.
The Taliban had “severely deprived” girls and women of the rights to education, privacy and family life and the freedoms of movement, expression, thought, conscience and religion, ICC judges said.
“In addition, other persons were targeted because certain expressions of sexuality and/or gender identity were regarded as inconsistent with the Taliban’s policy on gender.”
The court said the alleged crimes had been committed between August 15, 2021, when the Taliban seized power, and continued until at least January 20, 2025.
The ICC, based in The Hague, was set up to rule on the world’s worst crimes, such as war crimes and crimes against humanity.
It has no police force of its own and relies on member states to carry out its arrest warrants — with mixed results.
In theory, this means anyone subject to an ICC arrest warrant cannot travel to a member state for fear of being detained.
After sweeping back to power in August 2021, the Taliban authorities pledged a softer rule than their first stint in power from 1996 to 2001.
But they quickly imposed restrictions on women and girls that the United Nations has labelled “gender apartheid.”
Edicts handed down by Akhundzada, who rules by decree from the movement’s birthplace in southern Kandahar, have squeezed women and girls from public life.
The Taliban government barred girls from secondary school and women from university in the first 18 months after they ousted the US-backed government, making Afghanistan the only country in the world to impose such bans.
Authorities imposed restrictions on women working for non-governmental groups and other employment, with thousands of women losing government jobs — or being paid to stay home.
Beauty salons have been closed and women blocked from visiting public parks, gyms and baths as well as traveling long distances without a male chaperone.
A “vice and virtue” law announced last summer ordered women not to sing or recite poetry in public and for their voices and bodies to be “concealed” outside the home.
When requesting the arrest warrants in January, chief prosecutor Karim Khan said Afghan women and girls were facing “an unprecedented, unconscionable and ongoing persecution by the Taliban.”
“Our action signals that the status quo for women and girls in Afghanistan is not acceptable,” he added.
Khan warned at the time he would soon be seeking additional warrants for other Taliban officials.
Muslims overlooked with faith ‘ignored’ in UK care system, warns new report
- Think tank Equi calls for child welfare reform to recognize faith identity and unlock support from British Muslim communities
LONDON: A new report from leading think tank Equi is warning that a crucial factor in the conversation around child welfare in the UK is being systematically overlooked: the role of faith.
The UK’s care system is facing a deepening crisis, with over 107,000 children currently in care and the number of available foster carers and adopters falling sharply.
In a landmark publication titled “Faith, Family and the Care System: A Missed Connection?”, Equi has argued that while ethnicity and culture are often factored into decisions about care placements, faith continues to be neglected, with damaging consequences for children’s emotional stability and sense of identity.
Drawing on polling conducted in partnership with Savanta, as well as interviews and case studies from across the UK, the report set out the urgent need for faith-literate reform of the child welfare system.
“Faith isn’t just a personal belief for many children, it’s a source of identity, resilience and stability. Our care system needs to reflect that,” said Prof. Javed Khan, one of the leading voices behind the report.
The research highlighted the experiences of British Muslim communities, showing that faith can play a powerful role in supporting vulnerable children, both by helping to prevent family breakdown and by fostering strong networks of informal and kinship-based care.
Despite making up 10 percent of under-18s in England, Muslim children account for less than 5 percent of those in care. It is a disparity Equi said reflected both strong community-based care and the challenges Muslim families face in engaging with the formal care system.
According to the findings, British Muslims are 66 percent more likely than the general public to provide informal care or financial support to children at risk of entering care.
Over 5,500 Muslim heritage children are currently in formal kinship care arrangements, with thousands more supported informally, a contribution estimated to save the state more than £220 million ($298 million) each year.
This strong culture of kinship care, rooted in Islamic teachings around the responsibility to care for orphaned children (“yateem”), is seen by the report authors as an underappreciated asset within the national care framework.
However, Equi said British Muslims who want to contribute more formally to the care system face significant barriers.
While members of the community are 63 percent more likely than the general population to consider fostering or adoption, nearly 60 percent report fears of discrimination.
Many point to cultural misunderstandings, bias in assessment processes and a lack of faith-sensitive placements as major deterrents.
Faith is also closely tied to children’s sense of self and well-being, the report argues.
More than 70 percent of British Muslims — and 40 percent of the wider public — said faith played a key role in shaping their identity during childhood.
Yet current government policy fails to take religious background into account during care placements, following the removal of faith matching guidance in 2014.
Equi links this omission to increased identity conflict, emotional distress and instability in care arrangements.
Young people from faith backgrounds leaving care are also highlighted as being especially vulnerable to isolation. The report calls for faith-based mentoring schemes and transitional housing to support care leavers as they navigate adulthood and reconnect with their communities.
In response to the findings, Equi called on the government to embed faith literacy throughout the care system.
Among its recommendations are recording children’s faith heritage in care records, incorporating religious identity into placement decisions, offering culturally sensitive therapeutic care, and working in partnership with faith-based charities to recruit and support carers.
The report also urges local authorities to expand fostering capacity, particularly for sibling groups and multigenerational households, and to ensure clear legal and financial guidance is provided to kinship carers.
“This report isn’t just about British Muslims, it’s about the 40 percent of children for whom faith is part of who they are,” said Khan.
“It’s not about bringing faith into policymaking in an ideological sense. But, rather, it’s a wake-up call that ignoring faith ignores people’s lived realities. It harms vulnerable children’s sense of belonging and increases instability in care placements. The system must become more inclusive, fair and ultimately more effective.”
With rising pressure on the UK’s care system and a shrinking pool of carers, Equi’s report presented a timely and compelling case for unlocking underused community resources and building a more resilient, culturally competent and cost-effective model of care, it said.
Israel eyes deeper economic ties with India, finalizing investment protection deal
- India has become in recent years one of Israel’s most important trade partners globally, volume of trade and investments between two countries expected to increase
JERUSALEM: Israel and India are finalizing an investment protection agreement and expect to sign it in the coming months, Israel’s Finance Ministry said on Tuesday.
Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and the ministry’s chief economist Shmuel Abramzon discussed the issue, which it did not elaborate on, and other economic matters with Indian Ambassador to Israel J.P. Singh.
“Deepening economic ties with India is one of the goals I have set,” Smotrich said after the meeting in Jerusalem, calling India a “true friend of Israel.” An investment protection agreement is a treaty in which countries aim to reduce the perceived risk of investing in each other, such as by offering protections against unfair treatment or removing restrictions on transferring capital and profits.
India, the ministry noted, has become in recent years one of Israel’s most important trade partners globally and especially in Asia, and the volume of trade and investments between the two countries is expected to increase sharply in the coming years in light of their strengthening diplomatic and security relations.
Bilateral trade between India and Israel in 2024 came to almost $4 billion.
“In recent years, we have witnessed a strengthening of economic ties between us, including in the fields of defense exports and infrastructure,” Smotrich said.
“The potential for further strengthening our economic cooperation is immense. It can leverage our shared technological capabilities, India’s demographic scale, and the geo-strategic position of both countries.”
The EU presidency says Europe must rearm within 5 years
- Russia has been accused of acts of sabotage, cyberattacks and fake news campaigns – largely to weaken European support for Ukraine
BRUSSELS: Russia could pose a credible security threat to the European Union by the end of the decade and defense industries in Europe and Ukraine must be ramped up within five years in preparation, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen warned on Tuesday.
In a speech to the European Parliament marking the launch of Denmark’s six-month term as holder of the EU presidency, Frederiksen lamented that “cutting our defense spending in the past 30 years was a huge mistake.”
European officials have warned that President Vladimir Putin could soon try to test NATO’s Article 5 security guarantee — the pledge that an attack on any one ally would be met with a collective response from all 32. Most of the allies are EU countries.
Russia has been accused of acts of sabotage, cyberattacks and fake news campaigns – largely to weaken European support for Ukraine – and while Europe is not at war, it is not at peace either, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte has said.
“Strengthening Europe’s defense industry is an absolute top priority, and we have to be able to defend ourselves by 2030 at the latest,” Frederiksen told EU lawmakers in Strasbourg, France. “Never, ever should we allow Europe to be put in a position again where we cannot defend ourselves.”
Many European leaders insist they have heard the Trump administration’s warning that American security priorities now lie elsewhere – in the Middle East and the Indo-Pacific – but Europe’s effort to arm is moving only slowly.
When NATO’s ambitions are not enough
At a key summit last month, NATO leaders endorsed a statement saying: “Allies commit to invest 5% of GDP annually on core defense requirements as well as defense- and security-related spending by 2035 to ensure our individual and collective obligations.”
That historic pledge will require them to spend tens of billions of euros (dollars) more over the coming decade, not five years. Spain – NATO’s lowest spender with 1.28% of GDP last year – quickly branded the target “unreasonable.”
Belgium has cast doubt over whether it will make the grade. Slovenia is considering a referendum. Heavyweights France and Italy are mired in economic woes and will struggle to get there too.
Money spent on military support to Ukraine can now be included in NATO’s defense calculations, but even that will not hike the GDP military spend by much.
The EU’s Readiness 2030 plan
With the threat of Russian aggression in mind, the EU’s executive branch has come up with a security plan. It hinges on a 150-billion-euro ($176 billion) loan program that member countries, Ukraine and outsiders like Britain could dip into.
It aims to fill gaps that the U.S. might leave. Spending priorities for joint purchase include air and missile defense systems, artillery, ammunition, drones, equipment for use in cyber and electronic warfare, and “strategic enablers” like air-to-air refueling and transport.
On Tuesday, 15 EU countries were permitted to take advantage of another measure — a “national escape clause” — to allow them to spend more on defense without breaking the bloc’s debt rules.
Beefing up Ukraine ’s defense industry is also a pillar. The country produces arms and ammunition faster and more cheaply than its EU partners. Kyiv estimates that 40% more of its industrial capacity could be exploited if Europe were to invest.
Still, ambition is one thing, and the reality another.
“Things are not moving fast enough to be able to defend ourselves in 5 years,” Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen told reporters last week. “It’s a huge, huge challenge to reach that goal.”
On the need to take risks
A big part of the problem is that governments and the defense industry are stuck in old ways of thinking and neither wants to take a risk, even with Europe’s biggest land war in many decades still raging in its fourth year.
“You cannot expect industry to invest in production capacity if you don’t have long-term orders,” said Joachim Finkielman, the director of Danish Defense and Security Industries.
“If you need to build new factories, if you need to engage a larger workforce, you need to make sure that you have that,” he told The Associated Press on Friday.
Demand for 155mm artillery shells is a typical example, Finkielman said. “When you see the kinds of orders that have been placed around Europe, it is two to three years out in time,” he said, while industry needs five to 10 years’ worth of orders to take a chance.
Finkielman said that if governments and industries in Britain, France, Germany and Italy start to move, “the rest will follow.”
