BAKU: For the third straight year, efforts to fight climate change haven’t lowered projections for how hot the world is likely to get — even as countries gather for another round of talks to curb warming, according to an analysis Thursday.
At the United Nations climate talks, hosted in Baku, Azerbaijan, nations are trying to set new targets to cut emissions of heat-trapping gases and figure out how much rich nations will pay to help the world with that task.
But Earth remains on a path to be 2.7 degrees Celsius (4.9 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than pre-industrial times, according to Climate Action Tracker, a group of scientists and analysts who study government policies and translate that into projections of warming. Recent developments in China and the United States are likely to slightly worsen the outlook.
If emissions are still rising and temperature projections are no longer dropping, people should wonder if the United Nations climate negotiations — known as COP — are doing any good, said Climate Analytics CEO Bill Hare.
“There’s an awful lot going on that’s positive here, but on the big picture of actually getting stuff done to reduce emissions ... to me it feels broken,” Hare said.
Climate action is stifled by the biggest emitters
The world has already warmed 1.3 degrees Celsius (2.3 Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial times. That’s near the 1.5-degree (2.7 F) limit that countries agreed to at 2015 climate talks in Paris. Climate scientists say the atmospheric warming, mainly from human burning of fossil fuels, is causing ever more extreme and damaging weather including droughts, flooding and dangerous heat.
Climate Action Tracker does projections under several different scenarios, and in some cases, those are going up slightly.
“This is driven highly by China,” said Sofia Gonzales-Zuniga of Climate Analytics. Even though China’s fast-rising emissions are starting to plateau, they are peaking higher than anticipated, she said.
Another upcoming factor not yet in the calculations is the US elections. A Trump administration that rolls back the climate policies in the Inflation Reduction Act, and carries out the conservative blueprint Project 2025, would add 0.04 degree Celsius (0.07 Fahrenheit) to warming projections, Gonzales-Zuniga said. That’s not much, but it could be more if other nations use it as an excuse to do less, she said. And a reduction in American financial aid could also reverberate even more in future temperature outlooks.
“For the US it is going backwards,” said Hare. At least China has more of an optimistic future with a potential giant plunge in future emissions, he said.
“We should already be seeing (global) emissions going down” and they are not, Hare said. “The political system, politicians are not reacting. And I think that’s something that people everywhere should be worried about.”
Experts say $1 trillion is needed in climate cash for developing nations
The major battle in Baku is over how much rich nations will help poor countries to decarbonize their energy systems, cope with future harms of climate change and pay for damage from warming’s extreme weather. The old goal of $100 billion a year in aid is expiring and Baku’s main focus is coming up with a new, bigger figure.
A special independent group of experts commissioned by United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres issued its own estimate of costs and finances on Thursday, calling for a tripling of the old commitment.
“Advanced economies need to demonstrate a credible commitment” to helping poor nations, the report said.
A coalition of developing nations at the Baku talks are asking for $1.3 trillion in annual climate finance. The independent experts’ report said about $1 trillion a year is needed by developing nations from all outside sources, not just government grants.
Negotiators are still working out how much money will be on the table for the final deal, but indications late Wednesday suggested many options were still on the table.
“Developing country needs are in the trillions and its clear such an amount can’t be provided from public funding, rather private investment has to be brought to the table,” said German climate envoy Jennifer Morgan. “All financial players need to do their part.”
COP29’s lead negotiator, Yalchin Rafiyev, called getting a deal on money for developing nations is “our top priority.”
The report detailed how expensive decarbonizing the world’s economy would be, how much it would cost and where the money could come from. Overall climate adaption spending for all countries is projected to reach $2.4 trillion a year.
It’s personal for many activists from the countries experiencing the worst and most immediate impacts of climate change, like Sandra Leticia Guzman Luna, who is from Mexico and is the director of the climate finance group for Latin America and the Caribbean. “We are observing the climate impacts causing a lot of costs, not only economic costs but also human losses,” she said.
“I’m from one of the countries that needs to pay up and is historically responsible,” said Bianca Castro, a climate activist from Portugal. “Year after year, we come to COP and we are heartbroken with what doesn’t happen but we know needs to happen.”
Fraught politics isolates some nations
Argentina withdrew from the climate talks on Wednesday on the orders of its president, climate skeptic Javier Milei, as first reported by Climatica. The Argentine government did not respond to requests from The Associated Press for comment.
Climate activists called the decision regrettable.
“It is largely symbolic and all it does is remove the country from critical conversations going on climate finance,” said Anabella Rosemberg, an Argentina native who works as a senior adviser at Climate Action Network International. “It’s difficult to understand how a climate-vulnerable country like Argentina would cut itself from critical support being negotiated here at COP29.”
At the same time, France’s environment minister, who was set to lead the delegation, pulled out of the talks after Azerbaijan president Ilham Aliyev called out France and the Netherlands for their colonial histories in a speech on Wednesday.
Agnès Pannier-Runacher called Aliyev’s remarks on France and Europe “unacceptable.” Speaking at the French Senate on Wednesday, Pannier-Runacher criticized Azerbaijan’s leader for using the fight against climate change “for a shameful personal agenda.”
“The direct attacks on our country, its institutions and its territories are unjustifiable,” she said, adding it was “ironic that Azerbaijan, a repressive regime, gives human rights lessons.”
Earth’s projected warming hasn’t improved for 3 years. UN climate talks are still pushing
https://arab.news/c8jjs
Earth’s projected warming hasn’t improved for 3 years. UN climate talks are still pushing
- The group also said that recent developments in China and the United States are likely to slightly worsen the outlook
- They said Earth is on a path to be 2.7 degrees Celsius, or 4.9 Fahrenheit, warmer than pre-industrial times
Democrats in Congress urge Biden to sanction Israelis over West Bank violence
The letter, signed by 17 senators and 71 House members, said Israeli settlers have carried out over 1,270 recorded attacks against Palestinians
WASHINGTON: Nearly 90 Democratic lawmakers urged US President Joe Biden to sanction members of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government over anti-Palestinian violence in the West Bank, according to a letter released on Thursday.
Urging Biden to send a message to US partners before he leaves office, the members of Congress said Israeli cabinet members Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir had incited violence by Israeli settlers in the occupied territory.
“We write to express our deep concern about the rise in settler violence, settlement expansion, and measures adopted to weaken the Palestinian Authority and otherwise destabilize the West Bank,” they said in the letter.
The letter, signed by 17 senators and 71 House members, said Israeli settlers have carried out over 1,270 recorded attacks against Palestinians in the West Bank, averaging more than three violent attacks per day.
The letter was dated Oct. 29 but made public on Thursday because the lawmakers had not had a response from the White House, three of the members of Congress said.
Democratic Senator Chris Van Hollen and Democratic House of Representatives members Rosa DeLauro and Sean Casten, who are leading the letter effort, told reporters that Biden has the authority to impose sanctions under an existing executive order.
Doing so would send a message not just to Israel and the Palestinians, but also to US allies elsewhere in the world, that the United States will push back on humanitarian issues, they said.
“We think it’s more important than ever that President Biden right now states that the United States is not going to be a rubber stamp to the Netanyahu government’s extreme actions,” Van Hollen said.
Spokespeople for the White House and Israeli embassy did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
The United States has for decades backed a two-state solution between Israel and the Palestinians and urged Israel not to expand settlements.
The West Bank is among territories Israel captured in the 1967 Middle East war and where Palestinians, with international support, seek statehood. Most world powers deem Israeli settlements in the area illegal. Israel disputes that, citing historical claims to the West Bank and describing it as a security bulwark.
Netanyahu and his allies celebrated the re-election this month of Donald Trump, a staunch but sometimes unpredictable ally of Israel. In his first term the Republican president-elect delivered major wins for the Israeli leader. Additionally, Smotrich, who also wields a defense ministry supervisory role for settlers as part of his coalition deal with Netanyahu, said this week he hoped Israel would extend sovereignty into the occupied West Bank in 2025 and that he would push the government to engage the incoming Trump administration to gain Washington’s support.
Measles cases surge 20 percent, global study shows
- “Measles vaccine has saved more lives than any other vaccine in the past 50 years,” WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said
- “We must invest in immunization for every person, no matter where they live“
GENEVA: Measles infections soared by a fifth last year to over 10 million cases globally, revealing alarming gaps in vaccine coverage, a study showed Thursday.
Worldwide, there were an estimated 10.3 million measles cases in 2023, according to a joint publication by the World Health Organization and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
That marked a 20-percent increase from 2022, the study showed, saying that “inadequate immunization coverage globally is driving the surge in cases.”
Measles is one of the world’s most infectious diseases. At least 95-percent coverage with two doses of the measles/rubella vaccine is needed to prevent outbreaks.
But in 2023, only 83 percent of children worldwide received their first dose of the measles vaccine through routine health services — the same level as in 2022 but down from 86 percent before the pandemic.
Only 74 percent received their second dose last year, the study showed.
“Measles vaccine has saved more lives than any other vaccine in the past 50 years,” WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said in a joint statement.
“To save even more lives and stop this deadly virus from harming the most vulnerable, we must invest in immunization for every person, no matter where they live.”
CDC director Mandy Cohen said: “The measles vaccine is our best protection against the virus, and we must continue to invest in efforts to increase access.”
As a result of global gaps in vaccination coverage, 57 countries experienced large and disruptive measles outbreaks in 2023, up from 36 countries a year earlier, the study showed.
All regions except the Americas were impacted, it said, with nearly half of all large and disruptive outbreaks occurring in the African region.
The virus that can cause a rash, fever and flu-like symptoms but also particularly severe complications in young children is estimated to have killed 107,500 people in 2023, most of them under the age of five.
This marks an eight-percent decrease from the previous year.
The agencies explained that the decline was mainly due to the fact that the surge in cases occurred in countries and regions where children with measles were less likely to die, due to better nutritional status and access to health services.
“Far too many children are still dying from this preventable disease,” they said.
The agencies cautioned that a global target of eliminating measles as an endemic threat by 2030 was “under threat.”
By the end of last year, 82 countries had achieved or maintained measles elimination.
After Brazil this week reverified having eliminated measles, WHO’s Americas region is once again considered free of endemic measles.
All regions, with the exception of Africa, meanwhile count at least one country that has eliminated the disease.
The agencies called for urgent and targeted efforts to ensure all children are reached with two vaccine doses, especially in the African and Eastern Mediterranean regions and in fragile and conflict-affected areas.
“This requires achieving and maintaining high-performing routine immunization programs and delivering high-quality, high-coverage campaigns when those programs are not yet sufficient to protect every child,” they said.
NATO and the EU press China to help stop North Korea’s support for the war on Ukraine
- NATO says Russia is sending missile technology to North Korea in return
- NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said that “China bears particular responsibility here, to use its influence in Pyongyang and Moscow to ensure they cease these actions”
BRUSSELS: NATO and the European Union are ramping up efforts to persuade China to help get North Korea to stop sending troops and other support to Russia to back its war on Ukraine.
Up to 12,000 North Korean troops have been sent to Russia’s Kursk border region to help beat back Ukrainian forces there, according to US, South Korean and Ukrainian intelligence assessments. NATO says Russia is sending missile technology to North Korea in return.
With Russia exploiting its military advantage in Ukraine, the United States wants its allies to exert political pressure on China to rein in North Korea. Since Pyongyang and Beijing established diplomatic ties in 1949, their relationship has been described as being “as close as lips and teeth.”
One political lever is the threat of any increased Western activity in China’s backyard, the Asia-Pacific region. Just last week, the EU sealed security pacts with regional powers Japan and South Korea.
In an opinion piece for Politico last week, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said that “China bears particular responsibility here, to use its influence in Pyongyang and Moscow to ensure they cease these actions. Beijing cannot pretend to promote peace while turning a blind eye to increasing aggression.”
On a visit to Latvia on Thursday, Rutte warned that the exchanges of missile technology in particular pose “a direct threat, not only to Europe, but also to Japan, South Korea and the US mainland.” Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand now regularly attend NATO meetings.
On Wednesday, after talks with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, he also said that “the Euro-Atlantic and the Indo-Pacific really have to be seen as one theater, and not as two separate ones,” and that “our security, therefore, now more and more is global, and we have to look at this as a global issue.”
While North Korea and Russia have moved significantly closer, many observers say China is reluctant to form a three-way, anti-West alliance with them as it prefers a stable security environment to tackle economic challenges and maintain relationships with Europe and its Asian neighbors.
In a blog published on Thursday, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell detailed his recent trip to Japan and South Korea, where North Korea’s troop deployment and other assistance to Russia was on the agenda.
“This marks an escalation of the utmost seriousness, which was of course at the heart of our discussions with the Japanese and South Korean leaders,” wrote Borrell, who also held talks with Blinken on Wednesday.
Borrell hailed the conclusion during his trip of new security and defense partnerships with Japan and South Korea, “the first ones outside Europe.”
“The EU was certainly not born as a military alliance but, in the current geopolitical context, it can and must also become a global security provider and partner,” he wrote.
Blinken said this week that the Biden administration is determined in its final months to help ensure that Ukraine can keep fighting off the full-scale invasion next year by sending as much aid as possible to hold Russian forces at bay or strengthen its hand in any peace negotiations.
Russia open to any Ukraine peace talks if Trump starts them, envoy says
- “Trump promised to settle the Ukrainian crisis overnight. OK, let him try,” said Gennady Gatilov, Russia’s ambassador to the UN in Geneva
- “But if he starts or suggests something to start the political process, it’s welcome“
GENEVA: Russia is open to negotiations on an end to the Ukraine war if initiated by US President-elect Donald Trump, but any talks need to be based on the realities of Russian advances, Moscow’s ambassador to the UN in Geneva told reporters on Thursday.
Trump has repeatedly criticized the scale of Western aid to Kyiv and has promised to end the conflict swiftly, without explaining how. His victory in the Nov. 5 presidential election has spurred concerns in Kyiv and other European capitals about the degree of future US commitment to helping Ukraine.
“Trump promised to settle the Ukrainian crisis overnight. OK, let him try. But we are realistic people of course we understand that this will never happen,” said Gennady Gatilov, Russia’s ambassador to the United Nations in Geneva.
“But if he starts or suggests something to start the political process, it’s welcome.”
He added that any such negotiations needed to be based on what he called the “realities on the ground,” describing Ukraine as being on the back foot in the more-than-two-year conflict. Russian forces are advancing at the fastest pace in at least a year in Ukraine and now control about one-fifth of the country.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly said peace cannot be established until all Russian forces are expelled and all territory captured by Moscow, including Crimea, is returned. The “victory plan” he outlined last month maintained that provision, as well as an invitation for Ukraine to join NATO, long denounced by Russia.
Zelensky told European leaders in Budapest last week that concessions to Russia would be “unacceptable for Ukraine and suicidal for all Europe.”
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 triggered the biggest confrontation between Moscow and the West since the depths of the Cold War, with President Joe Biden driving efforts to isolate Russia.
Gatilov indicated Trump’s election represented a new possibility for dialogue with the United States, but was doubtful about a broader reset of relations, echoing earlier caution voiced by the Kremlin.
“The US political elite regardless of domestic political shifts, (Washington) consistently pursues a stance of containing Moscow and this orientation is deeply-rooted unfortunately and the change of administration does little to alter it,” he said.
“The only shift (that) might be possible is dialogue between our countries, something that has been lacking during the last several years,” he added.
Thousands of police officers but few visiting fans for France-Israel match after Amsterdam violence
- Some 4,000 police officers and security staff will be deployed around the Stade de France, with another 1,500 police on public transport
- Paris authorities on high alert following the violence in Amsterdam surrounding a match between Ajax and Maccabi Tel Aviv
PARIS: A heavy police presence but few visiting fans are expected when France hosts Israel in Nations League soccer on Thursday, a week after violence erupted in Amsterdam in connection with an Israeli club team’s visit.
French police chief Laurent Nuñez said 4,000 police officers and security staff will be deployed around the Stade de France, with another 1,500 police on public transport.
Paris authorities are on high alert following the violence in Amsterdam before and after a Europa League match between Ajax and Maccabi Tel Aviv. Dutch authorities say fans from both sides were involved in the unrest. The assaults on Maccabi fans sparked outrage and were widely condemned as antisemitic.
“What we learned from Amsterdam is that we need to be present in the public space including far away from the stadium,” and in public transports before and after the match, Nuñez said Thursday on French news broadcaster France Info.
Three months after hosting the Olympic closing ceremony, the atmosphere has gone from festive to fearful and the national stadium was expected to be three-quarters empty for the match. French President Emmanuel Macron and French Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau will be present. Former presidents Francois Hollande and Nicolas Sarkozy are also to attend.
Only 20,000 of 80,000 tickets have been sold with around 150 Israel supporters reportedly attending, escorted by police.
“We’ve tried to prepare for this match as normally as possible. But obviously none of us within the team can be insensitive to such a heavy context,” France coach Didier Deschamps said Wednesday. “It impacts the amount of supporters present tomorrow and everything that goes with it.”
The away match against Israel on Oct. 10 — which France won 4-1 — was played in Budapest, Hungary.
“These are situations the players are not accustomed to,” Deschamps said. “But we have to adapt.”
The low number of visiting fans comes after Israel’s National Security Council warned citizens abroad to avoid sports and cultural events, specifically the match in Paris.
Retailleau told French news channel TF1 on Tuesday that no specific threats were identified but “zero risk does not exist.”
Therefore, he said, exceptional measures are in place “before the match, during the match and after the match.”
The elite tactical unit of the French National Police, known as RAID, will be in the stadium and some police will be in plain clothes mingling with fans. There will also be heavy surveillance within Paris, including at Jewish places of worship and schools.
“It is out of the question that we take the risk of seeing a repeat of the dramatic events, of the manhunt, that we saw in Amsterdam,” Retailleau said, adding that postponing or moving the game elsewhere was ruled out.
“France does not submit, and the France-Israel match will take place where it’s supposed to,” he said.
In Amsterdam, a number of Maccabi fans attacked a cab and chanted anti-Arab slogans while some men carried out “hit and run” attacks on people they thought were Jews, according to city Mayor Femke Halsema.
After the match, parts of a large group of Maccabi supporters armed with sticks ran around “destroying things,” a 12-page report on the violence issued by Amsterdam authorities said.
There were also “rioters, moving in small groups, by foot, scooter or car, quickly attacking Maccabi fans before disappearing,” it said.
Protests erupted in Paris on Wednesday night against a controversial gala organized by far-right figures in support of Israel.
The game in Saint-Denis, the suburb north of Paris, is scheduled to kick off at 8:45 p.m. local time (1945 GMT).
A pro-Palestinian demonstration is organized on a Saint-Denis plaza at 6 p.m. local time to protest against the match.
Nine years ago, Stade de France was one of several locations during the Nov. 13 terror attacks in which 130 people died. France was playing Germany that night when two explosions happened outside the stadium.
Deschamps, Germany coach Joachim Löw and all of the players stayed together in the locker rooms for hours until it was safe to leave.
“It’s a sad date for us given what happened in 2015,” Deschamps said.
