BAKU: For the third straight year, efforts to fight climate change haven’t lowered projections for how hot the world is likely to get — even as countries gather for another round of talks to curb warming, according to an analysis Thursday.
At the United Nations climate talks, hosted in Baku, Azerbaijan, nations are trying to set new targets to cut emissions of heat-trapping gases and figure out how much rich nations will pay to help the world with that task.
But Earth remains on a path to be 2.7 degrees Celsius (4.9 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than pre-industrial times, according to Climate Action Tracker, a group of scientists and analysts who study government policies and translate that into projections of warming. Recent developments in China and the United States are likely to slightly worsen the outlook.
If emissions are still rising and temperature projections are no longer dropping, people should wonder if the United Nations climate negotiations — known as COP — are doing any good, said Climate Analytics CEO Bill Hare.
“There’s an awful lot going on that’s positive here, but on the big picture of actually getting stuff done to reduce emissions ... to me it feels broken,” Hare said.
Climate action is stifled by the biggest emitters
The world has already warmed 1.3 degrees Celsius (2.3 Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial times. That’s near the 1.5-degree (2.7 F) limit that countries agreed to at 2015 climate talks in Paris. Climate scientists say the atmospheric warming, mainly from human burning of fossil fuels, is causing ever more extreme and damaging weather including droughts, flooding and dangerous heat.
Climate Action Tracker does projections under several different scenarios, and in some cases, those are going up slightly.
“This is driven highly by China,” said Sofia Gonzales-Zuniga of Climate Analytics. Even though China’s fast-rising emissions are starting to plateau, they are peaking higher than anticipated, she said.
Another upcoming factor not yet in the calculations is the US elections. A Trump administration that rolls back the climate policies in the Inflation Reduction Act, and carries out the conservative blueprint Project 2025, would add 0.04 degree Celsius (0.07 Fahrenheit) to warming projections, Gonzales-Zuniga said. That’s not much, but it could be more if other nations use it as an excuse to do less, she said. And a reduction in American financial aid could also reverberate even more in future temperature outlooks.
“For the US it is going backwards,” said Hare. At least China has more of an optimistic future with a potential giant plunge in future emissions, he said.
“We should already be seeing (global) emissions going down” and they are not, Hare said. “The political system, politicians are not reacting. And I think that’s something that people everywhere should be worried about.”
Experts say $1 trillion is needed in climate cash for developing nations
The major battle in Baku is over how much rich nations will help poor countries to decarbonize their energy systems, cope with future harms of climate change and pay for damage from warming’s extreme weather. The old goal of $100 billion a year in aid is expiring and Baku’s main focus is coming up with a new, bigger figure.
A special independent group of experts commissioned by United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres issued its own estimate of costs and finances on Thursday, calling for a tripling of the old commitment.
“Advanced economies need to demonstrate a credible commitment” to helping poor nations, the report said.
A coalition of developing nations at the Baku talks are asking for $1.3 trillion in annual climate finance. The independent experts’ report said about $1 trillion a year is needed by developing nations from all outside sources, not just government grants.
Negotiators are still working out how much money will be on the table for the final deal, but indications late Wednesday suggested many options were still on the table.
“Developing country needs are in the trillions and its clear such an amount can’t be provided from public funding, rather private investment has to be brought to the table,” said German climate envoy Jennifer Morgan. “All financial players need to do their part.”
COP29’s lead negotiator, Yalchin Rafiyev, called getting a deal on money for developing nations is “our top priority.”
The report detailed how expensive decarbonizing the world’s economy would be, how much it would cost and where the money could come from. Overall climate adaption spending for all countries is projected to reach $2.4 trillion a year.
It’s personal for many activists from the countries experiencing the worst and most immediate impacts of climate change, like Sandra Leticia Guzman Luna, who is from Mexico and is the director of the climate finance group for Latin America and the Caribbean. “We are observing the climate impacts causing a lot of costs, not only economic costs but also human losses,” she said.
“I’m from one of the countries that needs to pay up and is historically responsible,” said Bianca Castro, a climate activist from Portugal. “Year after year, we come to COP and we are heartbroken with what doesn’t happen but we know needs to happen.”
Fraught politics isolates some nations
Argentina withdrew from the climate talks on Wednesday on the orders of its president, climate skeptic Javier Milei, as first reported by Climatica. The Argentine government did not respond to requests from The Associated Press for comment.
Climate activists called the decision regrettable.
“It is largely symbolic and all it does is remove the country from critical conversations going on climate finance,” said Anabella Rosemberg, an Argentina native who works as a senior adviser at Climate Action Network International. “It’s difficult to understand how a climate-vulnerable country like Argentina would cut itself from critical support being negotiated here at COP29.”
At the same time, France’s environment minister, who was set to lead the delegation, pulled out of the talks after Azerbaijan president Ilham Aliyev called out France and the Netherlands for their colonial histories in a speech on Wednesday.
Agnès Pannier-Runacher called Aliyev’s remarks on France and Europe “unacceptable.” Speaking at the French Senate on Wednesday, Pannier-Runacher criticized Azerbaijan’s leader for using the fight against climate change “for a shameful personal agenda.”
“The direct attacks on our country, its institutions and its territories are unjustifiable,” she said, adding it was “ironic that Azerbaijan, a repressive regime, gives human rights lessons.”
Earth’s projected warming hasn’t improved for 3 years. UN climate talks are still pushing
https://arab.news/c8jjs
Earth’s projected warming hasn’t improved for 3 years. UN climate talks are still pushing
- The group also said that recent developments in China and the United States are likely to slightly worsen the outlook
- They said Earth is on a path to be 2.7 degrees Celsius, or 4.9 Fahrenheit, warmer than pre-industrial times
UN calls for investigation into air strikes on Afghanistan border
- UN mission in Afghanistan says dozens of civilians killed in airstrikes this week by Pakistan in Paktika province
- Islamabad accuses Kabul of harboring militant fighters, allowing them to strike on Pakistani soil with impunity
KABUL: The UN mission to Afghanistan on Thursday called for an investigation into Pakistani air strikes in Afghanistan, in which the Taliban government said 46 people were killed, including civilians.
The United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) said it had “received credible reports that dozens of civilians, including women and children, were killed in airstrikes by Pakistan’s military forces in Paktika province, Afghanistan, on 24 December.”
“International law obliges military forces to take necessary precautions to prevent civilian harm,” the agency said in a statement, adding an “investigation is needed to ensure accountability.”
The Taliban government said the 46 deceased were mainly women and children, with another six wounded, mostly children.
An AFP journalist saw several wounded children in a hospital in the provincial capital Sharan, including one receiving an IV and another with a bandaged head.
A Pakistan security official told AFP on Wednesday the bombardment had targeted “terrorist hideouts” and killed at least 20 militants, saying claims that “civilians are being harmed are baseless and misleading.”
On a press trip to the area organized by Taliban authorities, AFP journalists saw four mud brick buildings reduced to rubble in three sites around 20-30 kilometers (10-20 miles) from the Pakistan border.
AFP spoke to multiple residents who said the strikes hit in the late evening, breaking doors and windows in villages and destroying homes and an Islamic school.
Several residents reported pulling bodies from the rubble after strikes targeted houses, killing multiple members of the same families.
Afghanistan’s Minister of Borders and Tribal Affairs Noorullah Noori called the attack “a brutal, arrogant invasion.”
“This is unacceptable and won’t be left unanswered,” he said during the site visit.
Pakistani foreign ministry spokesperson Mumtaz Zahra Baloch did not confirm the strikes but told a media briefing on Thursday: “Our security personnel conduct operations in border areas to protect Pakistani from terror groups, including TTP.”
She was referring to the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) — Pakistan’s homegrown Taliban group which shares a common ideology with its Afghan counterpart.
The TTP last week claimed a raid on an army outpost near the border with Afghanistan in which Pakistan said 16 soldiers were killed.
Baloch said Pakistan prioritized dialogue with Afghanistan, and that Islamabad’s special envoy, Sadiq Khan, was in Kabul meeting with officials where “matters of security” and “terror groups including TTP” were discussed.
The strikes were the latest spike in hostilities on the frontier between Afghanistan and Pakistan, with border tensions between the two countries escalating since the Taliban government seized power in 2021.
Islamabad has accused Kabul’s authorities of harboring militant fighters, allowing them to strike on Pakistani soil with impunity — allegations Kabul denies.
Asian countries mark 20 years since the world’s deadliest tsunami
- Indonesia launched its early tsunami warning system in the aftermath of the 2004 disasters
- Its westernmost Aceh province was the hardest-hit, with some 170,000 people killed
JAKARTA: Herman Wiharta began that Sunday morning like many 11-year-olds would on a weekend: watching cartoon shows on TV.
But at around 8 a.m., he felt the powerful tremors from a 9.1-magnitude earthquake that struck off the coast of Indonesia’s Sumatra island, which then triggered the tsunami that inundated the coastline of more than a dozen countries and killed some 230,000 people.
Wiharta, now 31, recalled his brother calling out to him to leave their house in Banda Aceh minutes after the quake and how they had attempted to run to safety. He remembered hearing people scream about the rising sea water before he himself was swept away by a giant wave.
“I lost consciousness when the wave hit me and I woke up on a roof, confused. Thankfully, my brother and sister were also on that roof,” he told Arab News.
“We were able to see just how black the water was from that spot, how strong the currents were. The water was about 4 to 5 meters high; cars and motorbikes were floating, and I could see bodies being swept away by the currents, too. It was terrifying.”
The tsunami on Dec. 26, 2004 quickly escalated into a global disaster, with some 1.7 million displaced.
The brunt of the tsunami was felt in Indonesia, where almost 170,000 people perished. The country’s westernmost province of Aceh was the hardest-hit of all, while Sri Lanka, India and Thailand were among the worst-affected countries.
“It was impossible to sleep that night. We could still hear people screaming for help and the dogs were howling. Everything was just so eerie. The disasters happened so quickly, but they were deeply traumatizing,” Wiharta said.
“It was even worse the day after. We could see bloated human and animal corpses, and the smell was just terrible. I can still picture that scene in my mind to this day.”
Across Asia on Thursday, people attended ceremonies and memorials held to mark 20 years since the deadliest tsunami in recorded history.
Coastal communities were united in grief as they also commemorated how far they had come after two decades of rebuilding and regrouping.
In Sri Lanka, where more than 35,000 people were killed, survivors and relatives gathered in the coastal village of Peraliya to remember the 1,000 victims who died when waves derailed a passenger train.
In Thailand, where half of the death toll of 5,000 were foreign tourists, commemorations were held in Ban Nam Khem, the country’s worst-hit village. People laid flowers and wreaths at a wall curved in the shape of a tsunami, which also bears plaques with the names of the victims.
In India, where around 20,000 people perished, women led the rituals held at Pattinapakkam beach in Chennai, where they lit candles and offered flowers for the victims.
In Banda Aceh city, an official ceremony held at the Baiturrahman Grand Mosque began with a three-minute-long siren at the exact time the major earthquake caused giant waves. People also gathered for prayers at the city’s mass graves — Ulee Lheue and Siron — where thousands of unidentified and unclaimed tsunami victims are buried.
In the years since, infrastructure across Aceh has been rebuilt and is now stronger to withstand major disasters. Early warning systems have also been set up in areas closer to shores, to warn residents of a potential tsunami.
Indonesia’s early tsunami warning system was launched only in 2008 in the aftermath of the disasters, said Daryono, the head of the earthquake and tsunami center at Indonesia’s meteorology, climatology and geophysical agency.
“Before the 2004 Aceh earthquake and tsunami … there were too many people who did not understand the threat, or the danger and risks of a tsunami,” Daryono told Arab News.
“But what happened in 2004 became a starting point to raise awareness on earthquake and tsunami mitigation and also to develop high-tech monitoring for earthquakes and early tsunami warning systems.”
Yet Aceh resident Wiharta was concerned with the direction of development in the province, particularly on the beaches of Aceh Besar district where many new cafes have been popping up in recent years.
“It’s important not to cut down the trees for the sake of building these cafes. It’s better to plant more trees, especially mangroves, so that they can help defend against potential tsunamis,” he said.
“I think the early warning systems also need to be fixed or reset to make sure that they are properly working for early evacuations, since many are either broken or stolen.”
Record number of migrants lost at sea bound for Spain in 2024: NGO
- The vast majority of the fatalities — 9,757 — took place on the Atlantic migration route from Africa to Spain’s Canary Islands
MADRID: At least 10,457 migrants died or disappeared while trying to reach Spain by sea in 2024, an NGO said Thursday, more than 50 percent more than last year and the most since it began keeping a tally in 2007.
The 58-percent increase includes 1,538 children and 421 women, migrants rights group Caminando Fronteras or Walking Borders said in a report which covers the period from January 1 to December 5, 2024.
It amounts to an average of 30 deaths per day, up from around 18 in 2023.
The group compiles its data from hotlines set up for migrants on vessels in trouble to call for help, families of migrants who went missing and from official rescue statistics.
It blamed the use of flimsy boats and increasingly dangerous routes as well as the insufficient capacity of maritime rescue services for the surge in deaths.
“These figures are evidence of a profound failure of rescue and protection systems. More than 10,400 people dead or missing in a single year is an unacceptable tragedy,” the group’s founder, Helena Maleno, said in a statement.
The victims were from 28 nations, mostly in Africa, but also from Iraq and Pakistan.
The vast majority of the fatalities — 9,757 — took place on the Atlantic migration route from Africa to Spain’s Canary Islands, which has received a record number of migrants for the second year in a row.
Seven migrant boats landed in the archipelago on Wednesday, Christmas Day, Spain’s maritime rescue service said on social media site X.
At their closest point, the Canaries lie 100 kilometers (62 miles) off the coast of North Africa. The shortest route is between the coastal town of Tarfaya in southern Morocco and the island of Fuerteventura in the Canaries.
But the Atlantic route to the Canary Islands is particularly dangerous because of strong currents.
Along with Italy and Greece, Spain is one of the three major European gateways for migrant arrivals.
According to the interior ministry, 60,216 migrants entered Spain irregularly between January 1 and December 15 — a 14.5 percent increase over the same time last year.
The majority, over 70 percent, landed in the Canaries.
Pope Francis opens special ‘Holy Door’ for Catholic Jubilee at Rome prison
- Francis opened the Catholic Holy Year, also known as a Jubilee, on Tuesday
- A Catholic Jubilee is considered a time of peace, forgiveness and pardon
ROME: Pope Francis made a visit on Thursday to one of the largest prison complexes in Italy, opening a special “Holy Door” for the 2025 Catholic Holy Year, in what the Vatican said was the first such action by a Catholic pontiff.
Speaking to hundreds of inmates, guards and staff at the Rebibbia prison on the outskirts of Rome, Francis said he wanted to open the door, part of the prison chapel, and one of only five that will be open during the Holy Year, to show that “hope does not disappoint.”
“In bad moments, we can all think that everything is over,” said the pontiff. “Do not lose hope. This is the message I wanted to give you. Do not lose hope.”
Francis opened the Catholic Holy Year, also known as a Jubilee, on Tuesday. A Catholic Jubilee is considered a time of peace, forgiveness and pardon. This Jubilee, dedicated to the theme of hope, will run through Jan. 6, 2026.
Holy Years normally occur every 25 years, and usually involve the opening in Rome of four special “Holy Doors,” which symbolize the door of salvation for Catholics. The doors, located at the papal basilicas in Rome, are only open during Jubilee years.
The Vatican said the opening of the “Holy Door” at Rome’s Rebibbia prison was the first time such a door had been opened by a pope at a prison since the start of the Jubilee year tradition by Pope Boniface VIII in 1300.
Francis has shown special attention for the incarcerated over his 11-year papacy. He often visits prisons in Rome and on his foreign trips.
China urges Philippines to return to ‘peaceful development’
- The US Typhon system, which can be equipped with cruise missiles capable of striking Chinese targets, was brought in for joint exercises earlier this year
BEIJING: China’s foreign ministry on Thursday urged the Philippines to return to “peaceful development,” saying Manila’s decision to deploy a US medium-range missile system in military exercises would only bring the risks of an arms race in the region.
The US Typhon system, which can be equipped with cruise missiles capable of striking Chinese targets, was brought in for joint exercises earlier this year.
On Tuesday, Philippine Defense Minister Gilberto Teodoro said the Typhon’s deployment for joint exercises was “legitimate, legal and beyond reproach.” Army chief Roy Galido said on Monday that the Philippines was also planning to acquire its own mid-range missile system.
Rivalry between China and the Philippines has grown in recent years over their competing claims in the South China Sea. Longtime treaty allies Manila and Washington have also deepened military ties, further ratcheting up tensions.
“By cooperating with the United States in the introduction of Typhon, the Philippine side has surrendered its own security and national defense to others and introduced the risk of geopolitical confrontation and an arms race in the region, posing a substantial threat to regional peace and security,” said Mao Ning, a spokesperson at China’s foreign ministry.
“We once again advise the Philippine side that the only correct choice for safeguarding its security is to adhere to strategic autonomy, good neighborliness and peaceful development,” Mao told reporters at a regular press conference.
China will never sit idly by if its security interests were threatened, she added.
The Philippine embassy in Beijing did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment.
China claims almost the entire South China Sea, which is also claimed by several Southeast Asian countries including the Philippines.
